Jay Skurski's 2025 season prediction: How the Bills can go 13-4 again
Jay Skurski breaks down the team’s schedule into two categories: Games the Bills should win and games we’ll call toss-ups.
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We knew the who. Now we know the when.
The Buffalo Bills’ 2025 schedule was officially released Wednesday night after days of rumors, leaks and speculation.
Big things are expected. At ESPN Bet, the Bills’ over/under on wins is set at 11.5 – tied with Baltimore, Philadelphia and Kansas City for the most in the league. In head coach Sean McDermott’s eight seasons, the Bills have gone “over” on wins in every one of them, winning at least 11 games in the regular season the past five years straight.
The Buffalo Bills will face the Baltimore Ravens in their 2025 season opener − a rematch of the 2024 divisional round of the AFC playoffs. Harry Scull Jr./Buffalo News
The Bills’ opponents in 2025 went a combined 135-154, a winning percentage of .467 that ties for the 23rd-easiest strength of schedule. The Giants have the toughest strength of schedule, at .574, while the 49ers have the easiest, at .415. Of course, strength of schedule is just one small factor to consider when projecting how a team will do, because it doesn’t take into account major changes teams have made – think, a new head coach or starting quarterback – or potential injuries among a variety of other factors.
Using 2025 projected win totals, a more accurate predictor than strength of schedule, NFL analyst Warren Sharp concluded that the Bills have the fifth-easiest schedule in 2025.
One more thing to consider: The Bills will travel just 10,546 air miles in 2025, which is the second fewest among all teams behind only the Bengals (8,753). The Bills make just one trip out of the Eastern time zone, to Houston.
How much all of that matters won’t be known until September. For now, let’s break down the team’s schedule into two categories: Games the Bills should win and games we’ll call toss-ups.
Should wins
Vs. Miami (Week 3, 8:15 p.m. Sept. 18) and at Miami (Week 10, 1 p.m. Nov. 9): The Dolphins have big questions in their secondary, and that’s even before trading away cornerback Jalen Ramsey, which is an expected move. That’s bad news against a quarterback who has annually treats them like a punching bag. There’s no reason to think Josh Allen won’t continue to bully the Dolphins. Also, shout out to the schedule makers for sending Buffalo south in November instead of September.
Vs. New England (Week 5, 8:20 p.m. Oct. 5) and at New England (Week 15, 1 p.m. Dec. 14): The Patriots’ offseason received an A+ grade from analytics website Pro Football Focus, but let’s be real: New England was one loss away to the Bills in Week 18 from the No. 1 overall draft pick last year. The franchise had almost nowhere to go but up. They played the Bills tough last year in Orchard Park before winning that meaningless game in Week 18, so these shouldn’t be considered layups, but Buffalo should still be comfortable favorites in both matchups.
Vs. New York (Week 18, TBA) and at New York (Week 2, 1 p.m. Sept. 14): Getting out of the Aaron Rodgers business and hiring an adult as head coach (Aaron Glenn) were two good steps, but it’ll be a long journey back to contenders for the Jets. Quarterback Justin Fields has a whole lot to prove as an NFL starter, which makes these games the Buffalo defense has to take over. It’s a nice touch ending the regular season at home against the Jets, considering they were the opponent for the first-ever regular season game at Rich Stadium on Sept. 30, 1973.
Short road trips: The Bills visit fellow Rust Belt cities when they head to Pittsburgh (Week 13, 4:25 p.m. Nov. 30) and Cleveland (Week 16, 1 p.m. Dec. 21). The Steelers might sign Rodgers, but until then they are nowhere at quarterback. The Browns, meanwhile, have five quarterbacks on their roster, and none of them should scare the Bills in the slightest.
A clean sweep of the NFC South: No game in the NFL should be viewed as a breeze, but on paper, the New Orleans Saints (Week 4, 1 p.m. Sept. 28) might have the worst quarterback situation in the NFL. A team perpetually in salary cap hell, don’t be surprised if the Saints are in the running for the No. 1 overall draft pick.
The Falcons (Week 6, 8:15 p.m. Oct. 13) added some juice to their pass rush in the draft, but are still planning to start the Michael Penix Jr. at quarterback. McDermott has generally done very well against inexperienced quarterbacks.
Homecoming weekend for general manager Brandon Beane and McDermott against the Carolina Panthers (Week 8, 1 p.m. Oct. 26) comes in late October. The Panthers have seemingly had a nice offseason, but in what should be a de facto home game because of all the Buffalo transplants in the Carolinas, the Bills are still clearly the better team.
The Buccaneers (Week 11, 1 p.m. Nov. 16) have a potentially explosive offense, but the Bills are at home and should be able to sweep the division.
Toss-ups
Vs. Philadelphia (Week 17, 4:25 p.m. Dec. 28): This has “game of the year” potential written all over it – unless it’s so late in the season that there isn’t much for either team to play for. The Eagles suffered some key losses along the defensive line (Josh Sweat, Milton Williams) and in the secondary (Darius Slay, Isaiah Rodgers, C.J. Gardner-Johnson), but the smart money is on them finding a way to overcome those departures.
Vs. Kansas City (Week 9, 4:25 p.m. Nov. 2): This will be the 10th time the Bills and Chiefs meet since the 2020 season. Buffalo is 4-1 in the regular season in the first nine games … and, well, you know the playoff record. The Chiefs have retooled their offensive line this offseason, which the Super Bowl showed was needed, so this will be a good test for the Bills’ revamped defensive line. Win.
Vs. Baltimore (Week 1, 8:20 p.m. Sept. 7): As long as Derrick Henry continues swimming in the fountain of youth, the Ravens will be a problem. Baltimore looks like it has everything it needs to make a serious run for a Super Bowl, starting with the duo of Henry and Lamar Jackson. The addition of Georgia safety Malaki Starks and Marshall edge rusher Mike Green in the first two rounds of the draft could give the Ravens two immediate contributors. Loss.
Vs. Cincinnati (Week 14, 4:25 p.m. Dec. 7): The Bengals have been slow starters under head coach Zac Taylor, so this game comes later on the schedule than the Bills likely hoped for. The highlight of Cincinnati’s offseason was getting contract extensions done with receivers Tee Higgins and Ja’Marr Chase. Assuming he wins a starting job, one of those two will test Bills first-round draft pick Maxwell Hairston. Given the Bengals’ recent history against the Bills, this feels like a big test.
At Houston (Week 12, 8:15 p.m. Nov. 20): This is a tough trip on a short week against a divisional champ that beat the Bills last year. It also starts a tough stretch of the schedule.
Final record
It’s not realistic to expect the Bills to win all 12 of the games they “should.” Of course, they shouldn’t lose all five of the games we consider to be toss-ups, either. A 10-2 record in the “should” games means they can go 3-2 in the toss-ups and still finish 13-4. That will be good enough for a sixth straight AFC East title.