4 keys for the Buffalo Bills to beat the Kansas City Chiefs

HipKat

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1. Tell it like it is​

Many players and coaches on both teams will downplay the importance of this regular-season matchup. Bills left tackle Dion Dawkins is a little more blunt. “Yeah, I look at it like it's another game, but realistically, from having all the history that we've had, you go into these games just with that extra thought, we've been sparring and battling with these guys for years and years and years and just knowing that, but it doesn't change anything,” Dawkins said Thursday. “It doesn't change the overall anger or it doesn't get you off of your pivot. It just keeps you focused, extra focused, where it's like, alright, the Chiefs are here, cool, they're the real deal, alright. … This is not just a regular boxing match.”

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Bills quarterback Josh Allen and Chiefs quarterback Patrick Mahomes last met on the field in the AFC divisional playoffs in January.
Joshua Bessex, Buffalo News


2. Stifle Spags​

Kansas City defensive coordinator Steve Spagnuolo is one of the greats. Bills quarterback Josh Allen said the two try to check in after games due to their mutual respect. Bills head coach Sean McDermott echoed that respect. “Spags is a great coach,” McDermott said. “He makes it really hard. He tests your protections constantly, it seems like. There's some people who do it in certain situations. Spags does it all the time. And so our level of communication is the first step for us in order for us to execute. Because he does a really good job with moving (defensive tackle) Chris Jones around. He's a once-in-a-lifetime player, and so that draws a lot of attention from people.”

3. Stay the course​

Get ready for them to go for it. The Kansas City Chiefs are 14 of 17 on fourth down this season, which is the best eight-game start for any NFL team in the last 45 seasons. They’ve also gone for it on fourth down at the highest percentage of any team this season. The Bills' defense, depleted as it is, has to be ready for the extra play. “Certainly, we've got a big one on our hands coming up here this week,” defensive coordinator Bobby Babich said Monday. “A team we're familiar with, an opponent we're familiar with.” The Bills' defense needs to use that familiarity to their advantage and sniff out plays as quickly as they can.

4. Meeting of the minds​

McDermott’s familiarity with Kansas City coach Andy Reid has the Bills' coach ready once again for this meeting. Both know each other’s tendencies and will try to use that to their respective advantage, but that means getting creative with play calling. “I have great respect for Andy and learned a lot from him as you guys know, and we’ve gone up against each other a number of times now and there’s been great battles, and I think that’s one of the reasons you do this is the competition,” McDermott said. “You look forward to the competition, and no different this week. We know what’s in front of us. We know the challenge that’s in front of us.”

– Katherine Fitzgerald, News Sports Reporter
 

Bills numbers to know: 4 trends to watch when Buffalo faces Kansas City​


A look at four trends to watch when the Bills host the Chiefs on Sunday.

9​

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Over his past three games, Chiefs quarterback Patrick Mahomes has thrown nine touchdowns with two interceptions. He has completed 73.9% of his passes in two games since wide receiver Rashee Rice returned from a six-game suspension. In five regular-season games against Buffalo, Mahomes is 1-4 with 10 touchdown passes and seven interceptions.
Ed Zurga, Associated Press

25.8​

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With Josh Allen under center in five regular-season games, the Bills are averaging 296 yards and 25.8 points per game. Allen has 13 touchdowns and three interceptions in those games. In the playoffs, Buffalo is 0-4 while averaging 327 yards and 28.3 points. The defense has been an issue in the postseason, with the Bills surrendering 34.8 points per game in four matchups since 2020.
Harry Scull, Buffalo News

100​

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The Chiefs rank 11th in the NFL in rushing yards allowed per game (100), but, according to Next Gen Stats, they are 18th in expected points allowed per rush. Kansas City's defense is 18th in yards before contact per rush attempt and 16th in yards after contact per rush attempt. The Chiefs have allowed 20 rushes of 10-plus yards, but they haven't allowed one since Detroit had runs of 13 and 15 yards in Kansas City's 30-17 win in Week 6. In the AFC championship game, Bills running back James Cook rushed for 85 yards on 13 carries and caught three passes for 49 yards.
Harry Scull, Buffalo News

2.5​

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Rice's average yards per target is only 2.5 because the Chiefs are mostly throwing short passes to the 6-foot-1 receiver. He's gained 95 yards after the catch in two games, and he has 16 catches for 135 yards and three touchdowns. Rice has lined up in the slot on 18 of his 59 snaps. According to Sumer Sports, the Bills rank 22nd in the NFL in yards allowed (418) to receivers who were lined up in the slot. They have used nickel personnel — five defensive backs with two linebackers — at a rate of 62.7%, nearly 18% lower than last season.
Colin E. Braley, AP File
 

Bills-Chiefs: Who you got? Buffalo News writers make their predictions for Sunday's game​


Jay Skurski​

The eyeball test makes it feel like the Chiefs are a better team right now, even if their record and the stats don’t entirely back it up. The Chiefs are a different team with receiver Rashee Rice in the lineup. It’s their defense, though, that has really been on a heater, allowing just 24 points total in the past three games. Can the Bills’ rebuilt defense do enough to slow quarterback Patrick Mahomes, who is the MVP favorite? Can Buffalo’s offense match points, especially with a sputtering passing game? I’m not confident in either of those things happening. Chiefs, 34-25.


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Running back Ty Johnson and the Buffalo Bills host the Kansas City Chiefs on Sunday in one of the biggest games of the season to date.
Harry Scull Jr./Buffalo News


Katherine Fitzgerald​

I felt this game would be closer before the Taron Johnson news. The Bills nickel cornerback is now questionable for the game, with a groin injury that popped up on Friday. The Bills' defense is already depleted, and that makes stopping Kansas City quite a tall task. I'm not as worried about the offense – I think they can keep up and get the passing game going in this matchup. But if the defense can't get stops, Kansas City will win this regular-season meeting behind quarterback Patrick Mahomes. Chiefs, 31-24.

Lance Lysowski​

The Chiefs aren't as unbeatable as NFL analysts suggest. You can use play-action passes to take advantage of their slow linebackers. They've allowed just seven points over the past two games, but those wins were against the Raiders and Commanders. Marcus Mariota, Washington's backup quarterback, had some success against Kansas City. And let's not act like this version of Kareem Hunt can run like the backs that have given the Bills fits this season. This will be close if Buffalo can stop the run and set the edge to prevent Patrick Mahomes from scrambling. In the end, the Bills are too thin at multiple spots on defense to win this game. Chiefs, 36-27.

Steve Trosky​

Great teams can right the ship when the seas get rough. The Chiefs did it after beginning the season 2-3. Can the Bills follow suit? Buffalo had a strong showing against the Carolina Panthers coming off the bye week, but Kansas City is a different animal. The Bills' defense will have to force turnovers to stay in this game and the team will have to keep penalties at a minimum. A lot will have to go right for the Bills to win this one. I'm not sure the defense can hold the Chiefs under 30 points. Chiefs, 37-31.
 
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