4 keys for the Buffalo Bills to beat the New Orleans Saints

HipKat

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1. Handle business​

The Buffalo Bills are rolling, while the New Orleans Saints have yet to notch their first win of the season. Quarterback Josh Allen thinks that should have the Bills on alert. “They want to win as badly as anybody in the league right now,” Allen said Wednesday of the Saints. “And again, there's no easy games in this league.” Still, if any games were to be easy, it would be the next stretch for the Bills. That’s all the more reason for them to stay focused on going 1-0 each week instead of jumping ahead to opponents down the line. Coach Sean McDermott preaches the mentality to avoid falling into trap games.

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Bills cornerback Taron Johnson takes the field before a game Aug. 9 at Highmark Stadium.
Joshua Bessex, Buffalo News


2. Clean up third downs​

The Saints have only converted 35% of their third downs, which ranks 26th in the league. This is a good chance for the Bills' defense to clean up an area that plagued it last week against the Miami Dolphins. Nickel cornerback Taron Johnson has pinpointed one factor. “There was a couple of times in both games where they quick-counted us and we were kind of on our heels a little bit,” Johnson said of the Dolphins. “And I feel like they converted on those times when they quick-counted us. So, us basically being at the line being ready having our call ready and not waiting on the offense to be ready, I feel like that's one of the biggest things.”

3. Test out the new guy​

Including regular season and playoffs, McDermott is 21-7 against first-year head coaches. Kellen Moore is the next test. Moore has ascended quickly, and he has a Super Bowl ring from his one year as the Eagles’ offensive coordinator. McDermott thinks Moore has imprinted his personality onto the Saints, even though it’s not yet translating to wins. “You're seeing the way that they play on all three phases, you're seeing them fight until the end and come back from more than one score down, which is hard to do in this league,” McDermott said. “And so, yeah, tip my cap to what he's been able to do in such a short amount of time there.”

4. Explosive plays?​

The Saints have just one completion of more than 25 yards this season, the lowest mark in the NFL. The Bills, meanwhile, have eight – even if there may be a perception that they’re not having as many big plays as usual. Allen addressed that this week, saying he doesn’t care how it happens as long as the Bills win. Saints second-year quarterback Spencer Rattler hasn’t been afraid to attempt shots downfield, he just hasn’t been able to connect. If the Bills' defense can continue to limit the Rattler to his current eight yards per completion (last among starting quarterbacks), Buffalo can reach 4-0 for the second time under McDermott and the first time since 2020.
 

Bills-Saints numbers to know: These 4 stats could shape Buffalo's game against New Orleans​


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Josh Allen is 8-2 while starting for the Buffalo Bills against a winless team.

90.5​

The Saints have used zone coverage on defense for 90.5% of their snaps, the third-highest rate of any team in the NFL, according to Next Gen Stats. Bills quarterback Josh Allen has 485 yards and a 74.6 completion percentage against zone coverage this season. New Orleans ranks 25th in points allowed (90) and 14th in yards allowed (940).

77.7​

The Bills' run-block win rate of 77.7% ranks first in the NFL, according to ESPN, and they are third in pass-block win rate (74%). The Saints' defense is 31st and 23rd, respectively, in pass-rush win rate and run-stop win rate, but they've allowed just 3.3 yards per carry. Bills running back James Cook is second in the league in rushing yards (284) and yards after contact per game (77.2), trailing the Colts' Jonathan Taylor. Cook has rushed for a touchdown in seven consecutive regular season games, tying a franchise record.

7.1​

Allen enters Sunday ranked 33rd among quarterbacks in average depth of target (7.1), according to Pro Football Focus, and he has attempted just nine passes that have traveled 20-plus yards. Only 7.1% of his passes in Week 3 were beyond 9 yards, the fifth-lowest rate by any quarterback since 2016. The Bills are third in the NFL in yards after the catch (432), per Next Gen Stats, and the Saints are tied for 27th in expected points added per pass allowed.

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New Orleans Saints quarterback Spencer Rattler. Gerald Herbert, Associated Press

4.7​

The Saints, led by second-year quarterback Spencer Rattler, are tied for 28th in yards per pass (4.7), and they are 18th in passing yards per game. Chris Olave, their top pass catcher, has 17 more targets than any other New Orleans receiver, and the Bills likely will use their top cornerback, Christian Benford, to cover Olave. Benford allowed six catches for just 61 yards in wins over the Jets and Dolphins.
 
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