Analysis: The Bills have been unusually blunt in assessing Keon Coleman's rookie season
As the first pick of the second round, No. 33 overall, the expectation is that Coleman develops into a plus starter.
It’s premature to say the Buffalo Bills have a Keon Coleman problem.
It’s fair to say, however, that the Buffalo Bills at least have a Keon Coleman concern.
Both head coach Sean McDermott and general manager Brandon Beane have been unusually blunt in assessing the rookie season of Coleman, the team’s top draft pick in 2024.
Bills wide receiver Keon Coleman can’t hang on to a pass as he is defended by Ravens cornerback Tre’Davious White on Jan. 19. Harry Scull Jr., Buffalo News
That evaluation continued this week at the annual NFL scouting combine.
“As far as Keon goes, I thought he had an up-and-down first season, I really do,” McDermott said.
That’s in line with what the coach said in his end-of-season news conference after the Bills were bounced from the playoffs by the Kansas City Chiefs in the AFC championship game.
“I thought he got off to a start that he built momentum through, and then he got injured, and then from there on, it was rather rocky, I would say,” McDermott said Monday. “We’re looking for him to learn from those moments of adversity, and come back and have a really, really, really strong offseason and get himself going into the start of season two here.”
That’s really, not once, not twice, but three times. That drives home the importance of getting Coleman to become a bigger part of the offense starting right away in the 2025 season. As the first pick of the second round, No. 33 overall, the expectation is that Coleman develops into a plus starter.
“He’s a good, young man that, just as most young players, don’t always know what they don’t know about the league and how hard this league is,” McDermott said. “And so, it’s more constructive-style conversation and topics with how we can move forward together and what you have to do – the process between now and the start of the offseason program in March and April. So that’s really what it’s about. Until you’ve gone through it, you haven’t gone through it.”
Coleman now has gone through it, so there should be zero excuses for his second season. He needs to take a clear step forward.
There is no question Coleman wasn’t the same player after suffering a wrist injury in Week 9 against Miami. Up to that point, he had 22 catches on 36 targets for 417 yards and three touchdowns. Only four rookie receivers had more receiving yards and/or touchdowns at that point.
Bills wide receiver Keon Coleman catches a two-point conversion while covered by Broncos cornerback Riley Moss on Jan. 12. Joshua Bessex, Buffalo News
He returned in Week 15 of the regular season following a four-game absence because of his wrist injury. Including the postseason, he played seven games following the injury. All of his numbers in that time cratered. He made just 10 catches on 28 targets for 161 yards and one touchdown. Thanks in part to a 64-yard catch against the Lions in his return from injury, Coleman’s average depth of target was 18.2 yards over his final seven games – up from 12.8 yards before getting hurt. However, basically every other advanced stat – yards per route run, yards per target, yards after catch per reception – all went down.
McDermott said in his experience, he’s seen players come into the NFL and have a good rookie season, only to take their foot off the gas going into their second year and take a step back.
Conversely, he’s seen rookies who have struggled in their first professional season dedicate themselves to their craft in the offseason and return in a much better spot in year two.
“It’s just a weird dynamic to me, but it really makes sense when you think about it, like you have to stay urgent, you have to stay on the gas, or this league will eat you up, whether you’re a player, a coach, whatever it is,” McDermott said. “That takes a certain type of person with a certain drive and determination and fire in their heart, and it’s going to be Keon’s turn to show that he has that this offseason.”
Understandably, Beane came to Coleman’s defense. A lot has been made of the general manager’s decision to trade down – with Kansas City of all teams – a decision that resulted in the Chiefs ending up with receiver Xavier Worthy, who had a strong postseason. That will lead to an inevitable comparison between the two players, but ultimately, what matters is that Coleman ends up being a good player for the Bills. Sure, it will hurt – and the optics will be bad – if Worthy ends up being a Pro Bowl talent, but the No. 1 priority for the Bills is Coleman developing into a trusted weapon for Josh Allen.
“Keon Coleman’s 21 years old,” Beane said. “Like, we shouldn’t expect all these guys – some of these guys playing and were drafted last year were 24 and 25 – so let’s give him a chance. Let’s don’t beat him up. It’s his first season. Let’s don’t forget about the good things that Keon did, made some plays for us, made some big plays.”
Those have to become more abundant in 2025, or else the heat on Beane is going to crank up even more. His last three top picks – Coleman, tight end Dalton Kincaid and cornerback Kaiir Elam – have not yet lived up to expectations. Elam is a bust who should be traded this offseason. Kincaid took a step back in his second year, partially due to injury. It’s too soon to draw any permanent conclusions on Coleman, but the heat is turned up, and Worthy’s rookie season only increases the temperature.
“I know talking to him, even since the season’s ended … that he’s grinding, he’s working, and he’s a competitive young man,” Beane said. “That’s the thing we knew about him in the research. I have no doubt that he’s going to come back with a refreshed mindset and ready to, if there are doubters, prove them wrong.”
