Analysis: Why Keon Coleman is an X factor for both the Bills' draft plans and 2026 season
If the Bills really are committed to Keon Coleman being on the team in September, he’s very likely the X factor for not just the offense, but also how GM Brandon Beane approaches the draft later this month.
The Buffalo Bills continue to say all the right things about Keon Coleman.
He’s training. He’s working hard. He’s doing what is expected of him. He’s going to be a big part of the offense during the 2026 season.
“My sense and feeling is that he’s dialed in and ready to prove his worth like he did last year,” president of football operations and general manager Brandon Beane told The Buffalo News last month. “I don’t think there’s any concern. He’s dialed in and ready to be a Bill. We’re excited to get him back.”
Bills wide receiver Keon Coleman has been the subject of a lot of debate this offseason.
Harry Scull Jr./Buffalo News
Of course, that’s what you’d expect Beane to say. Anything less would reduce any trade value Coleman has left, minimal as it may be at this point. It’s hard to shake the feeling that the Bills are saying what they have to regarding Coleman.
During an exclusive interview with The Buffalo News, Beane revealed that teams have checked in with the Bills, both before and after the NFL scouting combine, about Coleman’s potential availability in a trade.
“But my gut is that people are checking in, ‘Are you just ready to give him away?’ No, we believe in Keon,” Beane said. “My job would be to listen to anyone other than Josh (Allen), but Keon, with the full expectation that Keon will be here, be a part of this thing, and we’re excited to see what he looks like on April 7 when we see him back in the building.
“The plan is for him to be back here and be a part of this thing, whether that’s as a starter or a backup. Whatever that is, he knows he has to come in and earn it.”
For now, let’s take Beane at his word. If the Bills really are committed to him being on the team in September, he’s very likely the X factor for not just the offense, but also how Beane approaches the draft later this month.
If the Bills are just posturing and would really like to move Coleman, the time to do it would be before the draft starts. Speaking at the NFL’s annual meeting last week, Beane said he would be open to drafting a wide receiver in the first round. As it stands, that’s hard to imagine. The Bills made a big commitment – both financially and in terms of draft capital – when they swapped a second-round pick for wide receiver DJ Moore and a fifth-round pick from the Chicago Bears.
Beane made a sizable investment in free agency last year for Joshua Palmer, who will look to put an injury-plagued first season in Buffalo behind him and has a contract that basically necessitates a spot on the roster.
Khalil Shakir is firmly entrenched as the team’s slot receiver, likely the No. 2 or 3 option on the offense, depending on how you rank Moore and tight end Dalton Kincaid.
Bills wide receiver Keon Coleman takes the field against the Chiefs on Nov. 2 at Highmark Stadium.
Joshua Bessex, Buffalo News
If Coleman is back, he’s probably No. 4 on the receiver depth chart to start the season if everyone is healthy, with recently signed Trent Sherfield as No. 5.
Drafting a wide receiver in the first round with Coleman on the roster feels unlikely, especially given the needs on defense in the front seven. If the Bills pass on a receiver in the first round and maintain their current draft picks, the earliest the team could add another wideout would be in the third round. Expecting a player drafted there to be an immediate contributor feels like a reach.
Now, if the Bills were to trade Coleman … that’s different. A first-round receiver would likely bump Palmer to fourth on the depth chart. He’d be overpaid in that role, but should have the versatility to back up the top three spots.
A big question Beane has to answer leading into the draft is this: Has he done enough at receiver to help Allen? Moore is a good start, but does more need to be done? If he determines it does, he then has to decide if Coleman's development is a part of the equation, or another move has to be made − like actually taking a receiver in the first round.
Trading Coleman for additional draft capital wouldn’t be easy for Beane. It would be an admission that he squandered a valuable draft pick, No. 33 overall in 2024, the first pick of the second round. It’s never easy for a GM to give up on a pick made that high, especially after just two seasons.
Of course, Beane’s main priority has to be strengthening the 2026 roster. If the draft pick acquired by trading Coleman is valuable enough, it’s a move he has to be willing to make.
“The thing with Keon, from a football standpoint, his work ethic, his approach, how he’s gone through it − if Keon just takes care of, and I know I’m talking about his personal − but if he just takes care of his stuff off the field, and he just shows up, he’s going to be good to go,” Bill head coach Joe Brady said last week at the NFL’s annual meeting. “Keon is on our football team. I’ve never said anything negative about Keon. I was the first to tell everybody I wanted Keon Coleman.”
Indeed, Brady’s statement earlier in the offseason – that the best thing to happen for Coleman’s career was him becoming head coach – is the strongest wording the Bills have offered regarding the receiver’s future with the team since owner Terry Pegula revealed that the team’s previous coaching staff pushed to draft Coleman in 2024, not necessarily Beane.
Is there really any coming back from that? The Bills are publicly making it sound like it’s possible.
“Keon’s not going to just be pushed aside; he’s going to continue to be developed,” Brady said. New wide receivers coach “Drew Terrell, we have a great plan of what we’re going to do to get him to be the receiver that we ultimately drafted him to be. We’re in constant communication with him. He works.”
Whether that work is enough for Coleman to become a big part of the offense in 2026 remains to be seen. Until that happens, it's fair to remain skeptical.