Another pressure-filled stretch for the Bills could determine their decisions for 2026
Not only will the next six weeks determine whether this team can finally reach the NFL's final game of the season, but the results may also determine the long-term direction
Thanksgiving at One Bills Drive was not a casual work day.
Inside one of the meeting rooms, while other AFC playoff contenders prepared to play on national television, Buffalo Bills quarterback Josh Allen gathered with his offensive linemen to finalize a plan to block the Pittsburgh Steelers' game-wrecking defensive front seven.
Bills' general manager, Brandon Beane. Joshua Bessex, Buffalo News
The communication breakdowns that occurred in Houston one week earlier cannot happen again. Allen got sacked eight times. The Texans hit him 12 times. One of those hits caused his left shoulder to go numb. Another caused discomfort in his right elbow. And both of his starting offensive tackles, Dion Dawkins and Spencer Brown, won't be available for kickoff Sunday at 4:25 p.m.
"I think you have to learn from what happened and try to correct some of those mistakes," Allen said. "At the same time, I don't feel like you need to abandon everything that's gotten you to this point."
Coaches and players know the stakes. They have been here before. Losing four of their last seven games dropped the Bills (7-4) to the seventh seed in the AFC. The Steelers (6-5) are trying to knock Buffalo out of a playoff spot. A few more losses like the one in Houston could knock the Bills out of the playoffs for the first time since Allen's rookie season in 2018. Their ultimate goal, the franchise's first Lombardi Trophy, is still possible.
There are no signs of panic among players and coaches, even as injuries continue to mount and neither the offense nor defense can find some semblance of consistency. Outside the walls of One Bills Drive, the fan base that endured four consecutive Super Bowl defeats from 1990-93 is fearful that the franchise is squandering Allen's prime years.
Not only will the next six weeks determine whether this team can finally reach the NFL's final game of the season, but the results may also determine the long-term direction of the Bills. Allen turns 30 in May. His coach, Sean McDermott, and general manager, Brandon Beane, are amid their ninth season in Buffalo. Both transformed the Bills from dysfunctional losers to perennial contenders, but the team has regressed with the NFL's reigning MVP at quarterback. Even if no one will express the emotions tied to these high-stakes games, pressure is prevalent across the league as pretenders try to separate from the contenders.
"There’s pressure in it all, right?" said former Tennessee Titans general manager Ran Carthon, now an analyst for Sirius XM NFL Radio. "There’s pressure in it every single week because of the nature of our league and how things shake out. You’re always going to feel that pressure.
"The job of a general manager is pressure-filled. You realize you hold the fate of so many others in your hands and their ability to feed their families is in your hands, so every decision you make is going to affect so many other people. If there are high expectations coming into the year, of course, the organization, the fan base, everyone wants to finish strong, but we have to show some level of patience and fully run its course."
Bills quarterback Josh Allen tries to throw under pressure from Texans linebacker Azeez Al-Shaair on Nov. 20. Allen has been sacked twice as much as last season.
Joshua Bessex, Buffalo News
Faults
Good luck selling patience to this fan base. Bills Mafia endured a 17-year playoff drought that was marred by dysfunction and filled with horrendous quarterback play. They wanted this season, the last one at The Ralph, to be remembered as the one that ended with a championship parade in downtown Buffalo.Many forked over thousands of dollars to sit in the new Highmark Stadium. The comfier seats and overhang over their heads won't make them feel any better if the Bills fail in Allen's 30s. Finding a quarterback is the most difficult part of building a champion. Buffalo finally has one, but the past seven weeks have raised red flags that can't be ignored.
The offense can't throw the ball downfield. The defense, decimated by injuries, can't stop the run. Two of the team's top three draft picks, defensive tackle T.J. Sanders and edge rusher Landon Jackson, have barely contributed. The free-agent wide receiver who they gave $15 million guaranteed, Joshua Palmer, cannot stay healthy or get open. The receiver selected in the second round of the 2024, Keon Coleman, got benched for a game because he was late to another meeting. Some players signed to big-ticket contract extensions aren't producing.
To their credit, Beane and McDermott adapted once it became clear their vision for this team would not become a reality. To react to the injuries on defense, McDermott is substituting more than ever.
At safety, for example, the Bills signed 34-year-old veteran Jordan Poyer to the 53-man roster after Taylor Rapp's season-ending knee injury. Poyer is still a sure tackler with elite instincts. He doesn't have the same speed and athleticism that he did when he was younger, so the Bills are using rookie Jordan Hancock on third downs. It also became clear during a Week 6 loss to Atlanta that McDermott is more involved in calling the defense.
Nickel personnel − five defensive backs with four defensive linemen and two linebackers − was the foundation of his philosophy until this season, when the Bills began to use three linebackers more often to respond to how often offenses are putting an extra tight end or lineman on the field to block.
"We are in contention, and that's where we have to start with our mindset of, hey, we're in the hunt, and there's a number of teams in the hunt, and we've got to take it one game at a time and make sure that we understand the urgency and the mindset you have to have to approach things the right way," said McDermott.
"There's no undefeated teams in the league. That's the reality of the situation. So things can change rather quickly. And we've got to make sure that we continue to grow as a football team each and every day."
It's fair to wonder, however, if McDermott's scheme is too restrictive to the point that it's difficult to find players who fit. The Bills prefer to bring former players back to town, in part because of culture fit, than gamble on someone who may not fit on or off the field.
While waiting for an on-air interview with WGR-AM radio to begin in May, Beane overheard the hosts questioning the Bills' decision not to use a higher draft pick on a receiver. The general manager defended his decision in an infamous rant that got replayed across the country.
A few days later, he signed veteran receiver Elijah Moore. In September, Gabe Davis joined the Bills' practice squad. Two months later, Beane reportedly tried to trade for a receiver. Unable to complete a deal, he signed 32-year-old receiver Brandin Cooks, who totaled at least 1,000 yards in six seasons. Moore was cut to make room for Cooks, and the team's top free-agent signing two years ago, Curtis Samuel, can't stay healthy.
The Bills have missed on too many high draft picks, like 2022 first-round cornerback Kaiir Elam and 2021 second-round edge rusher Boogie Basham. Beane has made up for some of those mistakes by becoming arguably the league's best at finding talented players in the mid to late rounds. Brown, linebacker Terrel Bernard, wide receiver Khalil Shakir, cornerback Christian Benford, linebacker Dorian Williams and defensive tackle Deone Walker were all taken after the second round. According to Spotrac, the Bills currently have just $8,228,226 in cap space for 2026.
But the misses − Coleman is on track to fit in that category − forced Beane to spend money in free agency that could have been allocated to different positions. To be fair, few, if any, NFL teams have the depth to cover for the injuries Buffalo has sustained since the start of training camp.
Rapp, edge rusher Michael Hoecht and defensive tackle DeWayne Carter are out for the season. Defensive tackle Ed Oliver has missed all but three games. Cornerback Maxwell Hairston, their first-round draft pick, missed the first six games with a knee injury. Another rookie cornerback, Dorian Strong, is likely out for the season with a neck injury. The shear number of soft-tissue injuries is alarming, though, especially during a season in which the Bills have a new head strength and conditioning coach, Will Greenberg.
To react to the injuries on defense, Bills coach Sean McDermott is substituting more than ever.
Joshua Bessex, Buffalo News
Looking ahead
The injuries caused Beane to bring back more veteran players who were impactful in the past − most recently, edge rusher Shaq Lawson − but the patchwork defense is still too thin, too vulnerable and too inconsistent. How can they look like one of the league's best against Kansas City, then get shredded by the Dolphins in Miami?The Bills are not the same team on the road as they are at home. The play-calling by offensive coordinator Joe Brady was scrutinized by McDermott following a loss to the Patriots in Week 5. The offense hasn't adjusted well to injuries, most notably those suffered by tight end Dalton Kincaid. Mid-game adjustments, especially in response to unsuccessful runs on early downs, have not materialized often enough.
Why should anyone think this team will suddenly fix all of its issues? David Edwards, their left guard, cited the 2023 season, when the Bills started 6-6 and won five straight games to make the playoffs.
"We had to take care of our business to be in the playoffs," Edwards said. "That’s when I knew this place was special. You saw the process, the culture. There was no up and down with this team, this organization. You draw on that. Is there pressure? I wouldn’t say that we’re feeling pressure. I just think we know what we’re capable of. We’ve proven what we’re capable of. ... If we just play the way we’re capable of playing, the result will take care of itself."
The Bills changed their play-caller in 2023 when Brady replaced Ken Dorsey during a Week 13 bye. No such firing is happening this time and, now, the offensive line is down both starting tackles entering a game against a blitz-happy defense.
Allen has already thrown more interceptions (9) than he did last season, when the Bills clinched a division crown after just 12 games. He's been sacked twice as often (28 to 14), and the team's turnover margin has regressed significantly from the plus-24 in 2024.
Carthon echoed a similar sentiment as Edwards. In some ways, these Bills are like the 49ers teams with whom Carthon was director of player personnel in 2021 and 2022. San Francisco was a laughingstock when John Lynch arrived as general manager and hired Carthon as director of pro personnel. Nine losses to begin the 2017 season. A 6-10 season in 2020. By leaning on culture and leadership, the franchise gradually transformed into a model of consistency like the Bills.
The 49ers reached the Super Bowl twice and lost twice in the NFC championship game. The pressure was constant because the expectation was to win it all every season. A former NFL running back, Carthon experienced even more pressure in Tennessee when he became the general manager of a team that had regressed after it reached a 2021 AFC divisional playoff game. The demand for change exists in every market, including Kansas City, where the Chiefs are 6-6, but for every successful new coach and general manager, there are three who don't work out.
"You don’t throw the baby out with the bathwater," said Carthon. "Everyone always expects the new shiny toy will come in and be better, but it’s not always the case. Coach McDermott is a hell of a leader, from what I know of him. I know Brandon Beane is one hell of a leader. You look at the teams that have a solidified quarterback and a head coach and GM in lockstep in terms of how they want to build it, and all those teams are successful. If they get in, as long as they have Josh Allen on their team, they have a chance to win it all."
Carthon is right about the Bills' culture. It's viewed as the gold standard, and it's always mentioned by free agents as a reason why they chose Buffalo. The Bills have won five straight AFC East titles. They have double-digit wins in each of their past six seasons. Kansas City is the only team with more regular-season wins since the start of the 2020 season.
But mistakes also matter. Thirteen seconds happened. The missed tackles you see every Sunday aren't only happening because the defense has endured injuries. Beane has made more good decisions than bad − remember when people wanted him to draft Josh Rosen instead of Allen? − but the mistakes have also been costly.
How will their owner, Terry Pegula, react if these Bills are remembered as the biggest disappointment of the Allen era? It's difficult to imagine seismic change, especially given the confounding amount of patience Pegula has shown with Sabres general manager Kevyn Adams, but the clock is ticking.
The next six weeks will reveal if these Bills have the resilience and fortitude to overcome all that's gone wrong.
"All I’ll say is we’ve been here before and history repeats itself," said defensive tackle Jordan Phillips.
