Are the Sabres turning a corner? What I think and what I know through 9 games
The Sabres have been a different team since the first week of the season. Here are some things to take note of in the early going.
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Conor Timmins is clearly on Sabres coach Lindy Ruff's list of trusted defensemen. Gerry Angus / Imagn Images
The Buffalo Sabres have been a different team since the first week of the season. After starting 0-3 with two goals, the Sabres have gone 4-1-1 in their last six games and are averaging more than four goals per game during that stretch.
So what have we learned about this team in the first nine games? Here’s what I think and what I know about the Sabres a few weeks into the season.
What I think: Josh Doan is making that summer trade look good
JJ Peterka is off to a strong start in Utah with nine points in his first 10 games. Nobody ever questioned his ability to score. But Doan is bringing a more well-rounded game to the Sabres lineup. He has six points and leads the team with a 61 percent on-ice expected goal share. He’s also already carved out a role on Buffalo’s top power play. His forechecking and play away from the puck have made him a valuable player for the Sabres early in the year.Michael Kesselring, the other player the Sabres acquired in that trade, is set to make his season debut this week after starting the season on injured reserve. He joked last week that the way Doan is playing has taken some of the pressure off him because he’s already giving the Sabres an immediate return on that trade. It’s too early to pick a winner in that deal, but both sides seem to have gotten what they needed.
What I know: Doan and Zach Benson are critical to this team’s success
Regardless of how you judge that trade, Doan and 20-year-old Benson are proving to be critical pieces. The two play together on the Sabres’ top power play and are spread out on the top two lines. It gives the top six two players who are relentless on the forecheck and effective at making plays once they retrieve the puck. The Sabres are controlling the scoring chances when those two players are on the ice.What I think: Conor Timmins will be key to Buffalo’s blue line
So far this season, Timmins is averaging more than 21 minutes of ice time per game. His previous career high was just over 18 minutes per game across a 17-game stretch with Pittsburgh last season. Timmins is earning the ice with his shot blocking, clean zone exits and ability to kill penalties. Head coach Lindy Ruff clearly trusts him.What I know: Owen Power and Timmins have been a strong match
When Power and Timmins are on the ice together at five-on-five, the Sabres are controlling 54 percent of the expected goals. They also have an 18-8 advantage in high-danger chances. By comparison, when Rasmus Dahlin and Bowen Byram are on the ice at five-on-five, the high-danger chances are 23-18 in favor of the opposition. While it was easy to assume Kesselring would be the logical partner, Timmins’ steady and physical game has been a nice match for Power, who has shown some encouraging signs early in the season.What I think: Dahlin deserves patience
Once the games start and wins and losses are piling up, it’s easy to forget about the humans underneath the jerseys. But Dahlin had to deal with a harrowing life event this summer when his fiancée Carolina went into heart failure and required a heart transplant. She’s back in Sweden recovering, while the Sabres captain is in Buffalo trying to lead the team.“There’s a lot of things as a coach you consider,” Ruff said. “I take a look at how tough the summer was for him, first and foremost. He’ll find his game. He isn’t quite there yet. I understand that. This young man has dealt with a lot. He’s given us everything he’s got. He’s going to continue giving us everything he’s got and he’s going to keep getting better.”
What I know: Dahlin will hit another level eventually
Dahlin’s on-ice expected goal share at five-on-five is 44 percent right now. That’s the worst among Buffalo’s defensemen. The Sabres have allowed 42 high-danger chances when Dahlin is on the ice, most on the team. The upshot is that expected goal share would be the lowest of his entire career. He hasn’t been below 50 percent in that category since 2021-22. In other words, Dahlin will turn it around. We’ve seen that top version of Dahlin in flashes. The question is when we will see it with the consistency we’ve come to expect.
Alex Lyon is part of a Sabres goaltending corps that has been performing well so far.Timothy T. Ludwig / Imagn Images
What I think: Alex Lyon has been the Sabres’ MVP through nine games
Alex Lyon is 11th in the NHL in goals saved above expected, according to Money Puck. He has a 2.61 goals-against average and a .923 save percentage. He played the team’s first six games of the season and was rock solid in each one. He then took one game off and delivered another winning effort against the Toronto Maple Leafs over the weekend. Lyon’s never been a full-time No. 1 during his career, but he has a real chance to do it this season. The 32-year-old is leading with his play and has also made a strong impression on the locker room.What I know: The Sabres’ goaltending is better than it was last season
Lyon alone gives the Sabres reason to feel more confident about the goaltending they’re getting early in the season. This stretch of play from him is reminiscent of what the team got out of James Reimer late last season. However, the Sabres now have legitimate competition and depth at all levels of the organization. Colten Ellis, claimed off waivers before the start of the season, had a strong NHL debut. He could wrestle the No. 2 job away from Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen, who started the season injured and didn’t have a strong debut against the Leafs. Three goalies on the roster isn’t ideal, but the Sabres have options and competition, something they didn’t have most of last season. They even have Devon Levi in the AHL along with Alexandar Georgiev, so there’s depth to handle an injury or two. I’m not saying goaltending will be the strength of the team all season, but it’s better than it was last season.What I think: The Sabres are a deeper team than they’ve been in years past
There is no better way to find out about a team’s depth than to see it tested. And given the Sabres’ injury situation early in the season, the depth has been under a nine-game stress test. It hasn’t been perfect by any means, but the Sabres have scratched and clawed to a 4-4-1 record with slower starts from their best players and injuries to some key pieces in the lineup. Timmins has stepped up to provide top-four minutes and been arguably the team’s most reliable defenseman. Mattias Samuelsson looks healthier and more physically engaged than he was last season. And that’s just the blue line.What I know: Buffalo’s injury situation has been among the worst in the league
According to NHL Injury Viz, the Sabres lead the NHL with 50 man games lost as of Oct. 26. The next closest team is the Florida Panthers with 38 man games lost. In terms of the total cap hit of players lost, the Sabres are second, behind the Panthers. They’ve been without Josh Norris since the first game of the season, are still awaiting the season debuts of Kesselring and Jordan Greenway (though those are coming this week) and have dealt with significant injuries to Justin Danforth and Tyson Kozak. On top of that, Benson, Samuelsson and Power have all missed games. And Luukkonen, the presumed starter in net before training camp, missed the first eight games of the season. As Ruff said over the weekend, no other team is going to feel sorry for the Sabres because of their injuries, but it’s important context for the way the season has started.What I think: The team’s culture might be changing
The Sabres’ 0-3 start could have easily snowballed into an 0-5 or 1-6 start that doomed their season. Samuelsson said the team talked about preventing those longer losing streaks as a group.“All good teams in this league, whether they lose two or three in a row, they always come back and win the next one,” Samuelsson said. “They never let it get too out of hand.”
It’s tough to draw too many conclusions about the culture changing this early in the season, but this team has been dealt a tough hand with injuries, an early losing streak and the outside noise that came with them. That the players have had that conversation is an encouraging sign for how this team might be able to handle the grind of the season, especially once it gets healthier.
What I know: The on-ice mentality is changing
Two things are noticeable about how the Sabres play. One is that they are sticking up for one another much better as a group; the other is that they are getting to the front of the net far better than they have the last three years. They still have some work to do, but players like Benson, Doan, Alex Tuch and Jason Zucker are leading the way in establishing a true net-front presence. Just compare their shot heat charts early this season to last season’s, as tracked by HockeyViz. It’s not perfect, but it’s a big improvement if the Sabres can sustain it.
