Bills-Dolphins: Who you got? Buffalo News writers make their predictions for Thursday's game

1. Ready to accelerate?

The Dolphins are a fast football team. That's one thing, among many, Bills coach Sean McDermott has reminded his team about, and players should remember that based off their past meetings. “Yeah, they've got a lot of speed on their team overall, in particular on their offense and their returners as well,” McDermott said Tuesday. “They do a lot of different things. I think coach (Mike) McDaniel is one of the better coaches in the league offensively in how he schemes things up. Hard to defend, explosive. So, it makes for a big challenge and especially on a short week.” Miami already has six plays of 20-plus yards this season. The Bills defense and special teams will want to keep up with the speedy Dolphins to minimize chunk plays.

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Josh Allen runs against the Dolphins during the fourth quarter on Dec. 2, 2018. He rushed for 135 yards in the game.
Harry Scull Jr., Buffalo News

2. Unleash Josh Allen.​

Bills quarterback Josh Allen isn’t downplaying Miami, but he’d have every right to do so based off his career numbers against them. “They're pretty unpredictable in terms of when and where they're blitzing,” Allen said Tuesday. “So, (I'm) making sure that I'm seeing as much as I can, watching as much film as I can to try to pick up on cues and things.” But the Miami defense has rarely stopped Allen, who has 45 total touchdowns (40 passing and five rushing) against them. It’s by far his most against a single opponent, with 29 touchdowns against the Patriots the next closest. Allen didn't have eye-popping numbers against the Jets, and Buffalo still scored 30 points. Imagine if he hits full stride before the Bills hit a mini-bye.

3. Keep home streaks alive.​

The Bills have won 12 consecutive regular-season home games at Highmark Stadium, which marks the longest active home winning streak in the NFL. Another thing: Allen is 7-0 as a starting quarterback in Thursday games. The team can extend both of those with another win Thursday. Of course, fun little streaks aren’t the main goal here – the goal for the Bills is to build on their early AFC East lead and even fortify their shot at the No. 1 AFC playoff seed. The Bills’ record at home is particularly impressive. If Highmark remains a big advantage for them for the rest of the farewell season, the Bills will have a chance to stay there throughout the playoffs, and to close out Highmark with an AFC title game.

4. Next man up.​

The Bills will be without defensive tackle Ed Oliver again, who’s missing a second week with an ankle injury. But they proved last week that other players can step up, with veteran edge rusher Joey Bosa making a particular splash. What will be healthy for the defensive line is for other players to step up as well, keeping opponents on their toes. If Bosa is to draw double-teams, who can take advantage of the reps? A.J. Epenesa and Greg Rousseau on the outside? DaQuan Jones and T.J. Sanders up the middle? The Bills will also face the Dolphins without linebacker Matt Milano. Dorian Williams will need to make sure the defense doesn’t skip a beat as he likely starts in Milano's place.

-- Katherine Fitzgerald
 

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Bills receiver Khalil Shakir makes a catch during last year's home game against Miami.
Harry Scull Jr., Buffalo News


JAY SKURSKI​

A desperate team is a scary team. There may not be a more desperate team in the league than Miami. Head coach Mike McDaniel could be out of a job with an ugly loss Thursday night. Unfortunately for him, he’s going up exactly the wrong opponent if that is indeed the case. Josh Allen has made a career out of torching the Dolphins, and although Miami has the offensive firepower to keep it close for a while, Allen’s dominance will eventually win the day. Bills, 38-24.

KATHERINE FITZGERALD​

Things are not good in Miami, and they are not about to get better this week. Josh Allen always shows up against the Dolphins, and I expect another phenomenal performance out of him. The Bills' defense is banged up, missing defensive tackle Ed Oliver (ankle) and linebacker Matt Milano (pectoral), but I expect the group to contain the Dolphins. The Bills start the season with three wins in just 11 days. Bills, 35-20.

LANCE LYSOWSKI​

Aside from their pass rush, the Dolphins' defense stinks. They haven't been able to stop the run while allowing 66 points in two games. The secondary is thin because of injuries and departures. On offense, quarterback Tua Tagovailoa has thrown three interceptions and typically struggles against the Bills. It's a soap opera in Miami nowadays, with wide receiver Tyreek Hill routinely throwing tantrums on the sideline and McDaniel already answering questions about his job security. It's a desperate team, but it's also a team that lacks the talent to keep up with Allen and company. Bills, 34-17.

STEVE TROSKY​

Bills quarterback Josh Allen owns the Dolphins. In 14 regular-season games against Miami, Allen has thrown for 3,737 yards, 37 touchdowns and eight interceptions and has a passer rating of 108.8. That doesn't include his performance in the playoffs, when he threw for 352 yards, three touchdowns and two interceptions in 2023. Buffalo's defense acquitted itself well against the Jets, and Miami's offense has been in shambles. I don't see this being close no matter how desperate the Dolphins play. Bills, 41-17.
 
See in a non WNY sports universe , I wouldn’t be worried that the vastly improbable could happen.
 
Balls:
Josh, damn that man is something else. I'm glad he's our guy
Cook, damn that man is something else, I am glad we paid his ass
Kincaid, damn that man is something else, I am glad he bulked up this past off season
Bernard, damn that man is something else, I wish the rest of the defense was as inspired as he was
Prater, damn that man is something else, glad he pulled his head out of his ass and got some same game redemption

Goats:
Defense, can we just once get off the field on 3rd and long. I've been a fan for 35 years and from Superbowl XXV to the present they still can't get off the field on 3rd and long
First half defensive coaching
Second half offensive coaching
Kickoff rules
 

Grading the Buffalo Bills in their 31-21 victory over the Miami Dolphins on Thursday at Highmark Stadium …

Running game: A​

James Cook picked up where he left off in Week 2, rushing three times for 30 yards on the Bills’ opening drive. He finished the first quarter with four carries for 49 yards and the first half with eight carries for 73 yards, the longest of which went for 26 yards. At the end of that play, the tackle on Cook was low, which looked scary, but he was able to pop right back up. That’s huge for the Bills, because Cook has been crucial in their 3-0 start. Quarterback Josh Allen had a 19-yard scramble as part of four carries for 25 yards. Wide receiver Elijah Moore continues to have a small role in the running game. He took a jet sweep 11 yards for a first down on his first carry of the night in the first quarter.

Passing game: B+​

Allen went 3 of 3 for 34 yards and a touchdown on the opening drive, and in the first quarter, he was 4 of 4 for 46 yards. His first throw of the game fell incomplete, but the play was erased by a defensive pass interference penalty on Dolphins cornerback Jack Jones that was drawn by receiver Keon Coleman. In the second quarter, Coleman made a 4-yard catch that was a lot more impressive than it looks in the box score. On third-and-1 from the Dolphins’ 9-yard line, Allen fired a laser to Coleman, who was able to hold on despite tight coverage from old friend Rasul Douglas. Coleman, however, finished with just three catches for 20 yards. It was a fairly quiet night for the wideouts, although Khalil Shakir had the game-winning touchdown catch. Tight end Dalton Kincaid played a big game, with five catches for 66 yards.

Run defense: C​

It started out strong, as rookie defensive tackle Deone Walker stopped Miami’s De’Von Achane for a gain of just 1 yard on Miami’s first carry. Later on that drive, Bills defensive tackle DaQuan Jones made a tackle for loss. That was the good, but there was plenty of bad on the opening drive, too. Defensive end Greg Rousseau lost containment on a second-and-12 run by Achane that went for 11 yards. That pretty accurately summed up the night for the run defense: Some good, some bad. The Dolphins finished with 130 rushing yards on 25 carries, an average of 5.2 yards per attempt. Bills linebacker Shaq Thompson made a pair of tackles in run defense that limited Miami to gains of 2 yards on each play of the defensive drive that ended with Terrel Bernard’s interception. Thompson had six tackles, the same total as fellow linebacker Dorian Williams, and Bernard had seven.

Pass defense: B-​

The Dolphins’ quick passing attack gave the Bills problems early. Miami quarterback Tua Tagovailoa has a quick release, making him difficult to sack. That proved to be the case, as Buffalo’s defense finished without a sack and hit Tagovailoa just once (that was Joey Bosa). Bills cornerback Tre White had Tagovailoa dead to rights on a cornerback blitz in the second quarter but simply missed him, allowing Tagovailoa to convert a third-and-12 play with a 19-yard pass to Tyreek Hill, who finished with five catches for 49 yards and a touchdown. Tagovailoa was limited to 146 yards passing, completing 22 of his 34 throws, although he did have a pair of touchdown throws. The interception by Bernard was the play of the game for the Bills’ defense.

Special teams: C-​

It started poorly, as the Bills' coverage unit allowed a 54-yard return by the Dolphins' Dee Eskridge on the opening kickoff, giving Miami a drive start at the Buffalo 47-yard line. It feels like with the new kickoff rules, the Bills are going to give up a kickoff return for a touchdown at some point this season, and score one, too. Bills returner Brandon Codrington muffed a punt but was fortunate to jump on it. Punter Cameron Johnston averaged just 36.5 net yards on his two attempts. Matt Prater made a fourth-quarter field goal but badly missed an attempt earlier.

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Bills head coach Sean McDermott has led his team to a 3-0 start to the season, even if Thursday’s game wasn’t a dominant showing.
Joshua Bessex, Buffalo News


Coaching: C​

Bills coach Sean McDermott should have thrown a challenge flag on Miami’s first drive. Hill slightly bobbled the ball, preventing him from getting two feet down inbounds. The play was ruled a catch, giving Miami a first down on third-and-4. If reviewed and overturned, the Dolphins might have punted. Veteran defensive end A.J. Epenesa was called for unnecessary roughness at the end of the Bills’ first kick return, an undisciplined penalty that hurt field position. The Bills had to use their first timeout of the first half with 12 minutes left in the second quarter when the offense was late getting to the line of scrimmage. The Dolphins went 10 of 15 on third downs – just four days after the Jets went 0 for 11 on third down. That’s simply unacceptable on the part of the defense led by coordinator Bobby Babich. With 5:45 remaining in the third quarter, McDermott used his first timeout of the second half on defense ahead of a third-down play, allowing Hill to return to the game. That was not a great use of a timeout, but the defense did get a stop on the ensuing play, so it worked out.
 

1. What did we learn?​

The Bills can’t overlook anyone. Most of us predicted a blowout win over the Dolphins on Thursday, but it was a tied game midway through the fourth quarter. Linebacker Terrel Bernard’s interception and 23-yard return were pivotal. The Bills have won the turnover battle in every game this season, and look at the results. They’re 3-0. But before that break, it was a much closer contest than Buffalo would have liked. The Dolphins came into the game desperate, and the Bills struggled on defense and were uninspired on offense during the middle of the game. That’s not a combination they can have against more disciplined opponents.

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Bills wide receiver Khalil Shakir makes a catch against Dolphins safety Dante Trader Jr. in the second quarter Thursday at Highmark Stadium.
Joshua Bessex, Buffalo News


2. What's trending now?​

Third-down defense is trending, and not for good reasons. Just four days ago, the Bills held the New York Jets to 0 of 11 on third downs. That was not the case Thursday. The Bills let the Dolphins convert eight of their first 10 third-down attempts before stopping the next three. But then the Dolphins converted a fourth down anyway. The Bills throughout the game got Miami in third-and-long, and Buffalo was still unable to get off the field. On their first touchdown drive, the Dolphins had five third-down conversions for the first time since the 2012 season, per TruMedia. Miami finished 10 of 15 on third down.

3. What happens next?​

There’s plenty of time to go over the film before the Bills host the New Orleans Saints in Week 4. There’s also a few extra days to see how defensive tackle Ed Oliver and linebacker Matt Milano are doing. The Bills clearly missed them both this game. The Bills will also try to figure out how they can sustain their early-game success on offense. Quarterback Josh Allen seemed on his way to another ridiculous game with his flipped-ball touchdown to rookie tight end Jackson Hawes, but the offense hit a dry spell. The Bills need to crush their opponents after a drive like that instead of letting them hang around.
 

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Trailing the Buffalo Bills by seven and in good field position on Thursday night, Miami Dolphins quarterback Tua Tagovailoa threw a short pass intended for Jaylen Waddle. But Bills linebacker Terrel Bernard read Tagovailoa, stepped up and picked it off near the Bills’ 15-yard line, giving Buffalo the ball with three minutes to play.

The Bills burned two minutes and 38 seconds on a six-play, 29-yard drive that ended in a field goal, helping Buffalo improve to 3-0 with a 31-21 win at Highmark Stadium. Meanwhile, the Dolphins dropped to 0-3.


After trading touchdowns in each of the first two quarters, the Dolphins and Bills started the second half knotted at 14. A 2-yard touchdown run by James Cook gave the Bills the lead heading into the final frame, and the Dolphins responded for the final time on their next drive in the back-and-forth affair.

Josh Allen went 22-of-28 for 213 yards and three touchdowns. Allen surpassed Kansas City Chiefs quarterback Patrick Mahomes to become the fastest player in NFL history to reach 300 career offensive touchdowns, including playoffs. Cook finished with 108 yards and one score.

Tua Tagovailoa went 22-for-34 for 146 yards and two touchdowns against one interception. Tyreek Hill caught five passes for 49 yards and one TD and Waddle had five receptions for 39 yards and a TD.

Dolphins throw McDaniel a lifeline​

Despite the loss, the Dolphins may have quieted some questions about coach Mike McDaniel’s job security … for now.

Miami came out swinging with a 10-play, 52-yard opening touchdown drive. And just when the Bills looked like they might start to run away, kicker Matt Prater missed it wide left on a 39-yard attempt. Down by just one score, the Dolphins waddled down the field to tie it 14-14 at halftime.

“So far so good, but it’s meaningless without another half,” McDaniel said at halftime on the Amazon Prime broadcast. “We have a lot of football to play and a lot of execution.”

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A Dolphins defense that allowed points on 10 straight opponent possessions to open the season — the worst mark since at least 2000 — looked improved. It nearly forced three straight punts in the second half, until a roughing the kicker penalty gifted the Bills a first down.

Tagovailoa settled for a lot of lateral passes, but the offense made it work. Tagovailoa didn’t surpass 100 passing yards until a fourth-down conversion in the fourth quarter. He finished that drive with his second touchdown pass of the night. But after looking like he might steer clear of turnover trouble, Tagovailoa was picked off by Bernard with under four minutes to play, his fourth interception through the first three games.

Still, the Dolphins are 0-3 for the second time in 10 seasons (the last was in 2019). They aren’t completely out of the spotlight with a Monday night home game on deck in Week 4 against the New York Jets. McDaniel, who got a three year extension last year, is far from off the hot seat. But improvement from his team came just when he needed it Thursday. — Jayna Bardahl, NFL writer

Bills give up too many third-down plays​

The Bills’ defense made it difficult both on the Dolphins and themselves all throughout the game, and it ultimately kept the game a bit closer than they would have liked. Ahead of their late-game field goal to put the game away at 31-21, on first and second down, the Bills allowed only 3.4 yards per play — a more than respectable mark that put the Dolphins in one difficult third-down situation after another all night long. But when it got to third down, the Dolphins’ average more than doubled to seven yards per play, with Miami converting on 10 of their 15 third-down chances. And on one of the failed attempts, the Dolphins converted on fourth down immediately after to extend their drive further.

Predictably, based on their early-down prowess all game, the Bills saved their best defensive play of the evening for an early down. Rookie defensive tackle Deone Walker went nearly unblocked. He got immediate pressure on Tagovailoa as the Dolphins were attempting to tie the game late in the fourth quarter. The passer made a panic throw, and Bernard read the play and sprinted in front of the pass for the game-clinching play. The Bills will not be pleased with their third-down weakness, though this came after a week in which the Jets did not convert a single third down against the Bills the entire game.

The Bills will hope to get their third-down defense back on track in Week 4 against the New Orleans Saints. — Joe Buscaglia, Bills beat writer

Too close for comfort … for Buffalo​

Numbers will show Buffalo’s offense was efficient. Allen and Cook were superb. But the group looked far from dominant against a reeling opponent. The Bills scored 41 against the Baltimore Ravens in a matchup of AFC powers and then amassed 30 points against the Jets before pulling the chute.

But this game was too close for too long.

Miami’s defense has been a laughingstock and lost top nickelback Jason Marshall Jr. to a hamstring injury in the second quarter, yet Buffalo struggled a bit. Allen and Cook got off to hot starts. They looked unstoppable. Then the Bills got mired and seemed totally incapable of stretching the field for a good chunk of the game.

Prater’s wayward 39-yard field-goal attempt late in the second quarter hurt. The Dolphins tied the score at 14 right before halftime. In the third quarter, the Dolphins forced punts on back-to-back drives for the first time this season, allowing them to tie it again at 21 early in the fourth.

Thankfully, Cook was sensational. Anything less, and who knows what happens? He ran 19 times for 108 yards and a touchdown. He ripped carries of 11, 9, 26 and 11 yards. Allen gladly took what Miami’s defense allowed, throwing for a modest 213 yards (30 yards on Elijah Moore’s catch-and-run at the two-minute warning to ice the game) with no turnovers. Nine targets snagged at least one pass. — Tim Graham, Bills beat writer
 

The Athletic: Bills vow to fix awful third-down defense: ‘It’s a little demoralizing’​


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Taron Johnson was smiling Thursday night because the Buffalo Bills won. They’re 3-0 and don’t play for another 10 days. They can take a breath. They should feel good.

There was, however, one topic from the 31-21 victory over the Miami Dolphins that made Johnson growl — actually, like an ornery rottweiler.

I asked Buffalo’s nickelback to take me through all those third downs right before halftime, when it couldn’t get Miami off the field. Five third downs, five conversions, three of them from a great distance.

Third-and-1, backup running back Ollie Gordon ran for 4 yards.

Johnson shook his head and grimaced.

Third-and-12, Tua Tagovailoa completed a pass to Tyreek Hill for 19 yards.

Mmmm!” A sound came from deep within Johnson’s throat.

Third-and-10, Tagovailoa to Hill for 13 more.

“Yeah, I know,” Johnson nodded, waiting for the rest.

Third-and-7, Tagovailoa scrambled for 8 yards.

Mmmm hmmm,” Johnson seethed.

Third-and-3, Tagovailoa to Hill again for 7 yards.

“Yeah …”

On the next play, Tagovailoa spotted Jaylen Waddle for a 3-yard touchdown toss that tied the score at 14. Miami began the drive on its own 29-yard line when Matt Prater missed a 39-yard field-goal attempt with 6:03 remaining in the first half.

Buffalo’s defense couldn’t get off the field until Miami drained all but 11 seconds off the clock. The Bills, winners and deferrers of the opening coin flip, were denied their coveted double dip and went into the intermission with inferior foes draped across their backs.

“Third and long! We want that!” Johnson laughed in disbelief. “It’s a little demoralizing, but at the end of the day, you just got to keep playing because there’s still a chance we can get a turnover, still a chance that we can stop them on the next drive.

“You can’t hang your head. We’ll talk about that tomorrow. In the moment, you just got to keep going even when stuff ain’t going right. When you get discouraged, that’s how you lose a game badly.”

History shows defenses that perform so poorly on third down should lose.

The Dolphins averaged an obnoxious 6.8 yards on third down. Last year, the Baltimore Ravens led the entire NFL at 6.8 yards per play — on any down.

Four nights after they prevented the New York Jets from converting any of their 11 third-down attempts, the Bills posted one of their worst third-down defensive performances in over 40 years. The Dolphins had 15 third downs and moved the chains 10 times. They converted their lone fourth-down attempt, too.

“We got them in a lot of hard third downs, long third downs and we weren’t able to get off the field,” Bills cornerback Tre’Davious White said. “We want those plays back, but ultimately you just try to limit the damage.”

Of the 25 times the Bills have surrendered at least 10 third-down conversions since 1991 (as far back as Pro Football Reference’s data goes), the Dolphins’ 66.7 percent success rate is tied for fifth-worst, second-worst since Sean McDermott became coach. The Los Angeles Rams converted 11 of 15 first downs and one fourth down in a 44-42 shootout over the Bills last December.

The Bills, before Thursday night, were 3-21 when yielding at least 10 third-down conversions. They beat the New York Giants 14-9 despite such circumstances in October 2023, but the victories before that came in 1998 and 1991.

Miami nailed all three of its third-down conversions on the opening drive as well. Dee Eskridge returned the kickoff 54 yards to Buffalo’s 47, and then Miami refused to reach fourth down and kick a field goal. Gordon’s 2-yard touchdown came on third-and-goal.

“It sucks when they convert it, when you do a good job on first and second down and get them in third and long,” Bills linebacker Shaq Thompson said. “Then they get a play,” he snapped his fingers, “like that. We’ve just got to be more disciplined.”

Injured defensive tackle Ed Oliver and linebacker Matt Milano were missing from the lineup, but the Bills must figure out a way to compensate.

They were better in the second half, forcing a pair of three-and-out possessions in the third quarter. But in the fourth quarter, Tagovailoa completed all three of his third-down passes for 34 yards and his fourth-down throw for another 15 yards.

The Bills’ defense survived thanks in large part to another late Terrel Bernard takeaway. In Week 1, he recovered Oliver’s forced fumble to help turn the tide against the Ravens, and on Thursday night snagged a red-zone interception after defensive tackle Deone Walker tipped Tagovailoa’s pass with 3:00 to play.

“Same thing we did in the Ravens game; same thing we did here,” Johnson said. “Some other teams might not do that and just kind of fall apart.

“We stay together. We’re here, and no one’s flaming. We’re not finger-pointing, it’s just ‘Let’s get it fixed.’”
 
Never really ever thought Bills would lose. Just felt it might end up tighter than I first thought.

Was concerned by the lack of vertical game… even 12-15 air yards. That Miami secondary is a mess.
 
Balls

Allen. 3 tuddies, no picks, key plays. His domination of Miami continues. The no look to Hawes was cool.

Bernard. Key play to save the day

Cook. Another td and a 100 yard day

Elijah Moore. Low key makes big plays all the time.

OL. Allen was barely pressured and Cook had lanes.

Bill Burr getting abused on the punt. That was key. And the correct call.





Goats

Tre and Benford. Toast all game long. Gave up a ton of yards and 2 scores. Bad day for those two

DL. The usual garbage performance form the overpaid bums at the front. No pressures on the immobile Tua. Fish had given up 8 sacks in 2 weeks. None yesterday. They all took the day off. Typical.

Prater miss

Kincaid TD drop.

McD not challenging the Hill catch early on. Seemed like a worthy shot. Fins scored a few plays later.

Whatever that game plan on O was that had Josh Allen throw ONE pass. ONE the entire game over 10 yards. What in Trent Edwards name is that? You don't have to go crazy airing it out, but that seemed like too conservative.

3rd down D. The usual garbage from the "defensive genius" and his D. They gave up 10 of 15 on 3rd and a 4th down. Some of those were long conversions.
 
Never really ever thought Bills would lose. Just felt it might end up tighter than I first thought.

Was concerned by the lack of vertical game… even 12-15 air yards. That Miami secondary is a mess.

Allen threw one pass over 10 yards the entire game. That was a weird game plan. I agree that Miami secondary is a hot mess. Wonder why we didnt test them. Chad Pennington was smiling somewhere. Ditto for Trent Edwards.
 
Allen threw one pass over 10 yards the entire game. That was a weird game plan. I agree that Miami secondary is a hot mess. Wonder why we didnt test them. Chad Pennington was smiling somewhere. Ditto for Trent Edwards.
I think I know why. My theory is we will find McDermott told Brady to reign it in because of how dogshit the defense is. The plan was give Cook the rock, have Josh throw short passes, chew clock, control the game, limit the time Miami had with the ball. I also think you scheme differently v a shit team like Miami than you do against Baltimore or Kansas City. This early in the year you don't show all your cards. You don't want KC (and as much as I hope they choke against the Giants because its so fun laughing at them when they lose, I don't think they're done) or Baltimore or other teams you have to play in December and January having too much tape.
 

The big takeaway from the Buffalo Bills' 30-10 road victory over the New York Jets was that Josh Allen and his offense have grown to a point where they can win games in different ways.

Allen’s efficiency may have been lower than average – he completed 14 of 25 attempts (56%) for 148 yards – but he didn’t make a game-changing mistake. He converted critical third-down situations just when the Bills’ offense needed it most. He was solid all around, getting the offense into the right plays, protecting the ball and finishing drives with just enough for the Bills to get points.

Allen also was the victim of a few uncharacteristic drops, and he selflessly threw the ball away when necessary, both of which impacted his completion percentage. Two of those throwaways were flagged for intentional grounding – unusual for Allen – but he made up for those mistakes with other parts of his game.

The Bills’ offense went into ground-and-pound mode. James Cook led the way with 21 carries for 132 yards and two touchdowns. The Bills were patient as they accumulated an impressive difference in time of possession, 38:21 to 21:39, and they didn’t turn the ball over (although Cook did have a fumble that was recovered by right tackle Spencer Brown).

In fact, the Bills have not lost the turnover differential in 23 straight games, an NFL record and an incredible accomplishment for any team.

Most of the talk about this game focused on the Jets’ poor offensive performance. Not enough was said about the efficiency that Allen has learned to play with, nor the potent rushing gear the Bills have developed. This Bills team rushed on 43 of their 71 offensive plays (60%) while giving their MVP quarterback a much-needed day off from having to do extraordinary things in order to win.

The Buffalo rushing attack accumulated a 224 net rushing yards to 100 yards for the Jets. Allen's 59 yards on the ground certainly contributed, as he was the second-leading rusher in the game.

There were times when Allen made key, difference-making plays. In the end, it doesn’t matter how you win, only that you do win. That's the attitude and the focus of this Allen-led team. That mentality was on full display as the Bills hammered the Jets.

FIRST QUARTER​

Play selection: 21 plays (eight passes, 13 runs)
Allen: 3 for 7 passing, 14 yards; 2 carries for 40 yards.
Performance grade: 81%
Score: Bills, 10-0.
The Bills’ defense stopped the Jets on the first series, forcing a three-and-out. Allen then had this amazing 40-yard scamper on a third-and-8. This was the catalyst for a 12-play touchdown drive that totaled 81 yards and drained 5:58 out of the first quarter.

1. Josh Allen's 40-yard scramble​


Here, on third-and-8, Allen stepped up to his right through the Jets’ six-man pressure and took off. This blitz design gave the initial impression that the pressure was coming to Allen’s right. In actuality, the Jets stunted and looped both linebackers left, forcing him to his right. Credit the offensive line with staying on their blocks, keeping their bodies between their defenders and Allen. This is what allowed Allen to step up and run as he left the pocket.

The Jets were in man-to-man in the secondary, which Allen knew at the snap. He knew that if he could just get out of the pocket, he would have room to run. This awareness, combined with his athletic ability, is a dangerous combination to teams that play man-to-man coverage because the secondary defenders are busy covering their assignments and cannot see Allen leave the pocket until it is too late.

Allen escaped and took off for 40 yards before being pushed out of bounds. This huge scramble and third-down conversion was the difference on the Bills’ opening touchdown drive.

Later in the drive, Allen was called for intentional grounding as he threw the ball away without getting the pass to the line of scrimmage while he was outside the pocket. This was an unusual mistake, and it created a third-and-19 for the Bills’ offense. On the next offensive play, Allen took one for the team as Jets defensive end Micheal Clemons hit Allen late and in the head, resulting in a roughing-the-passer penalty. This was one of several self-inflicted wounds for the Jets in this game.

Sure, Allen embellished this, but he had already thrown the ball when Clemons struck him above the shoulders. The officials called this correctly as Allen did get hit in the helmet. The Jets’ defense would have forced a field-goal attempt here, but the senseless penalty gave the Bills new life.

Cook hammered it home on a 1-yard plunge two plays later, giving the Bills an early 7-0 lead.

Defensive end Joey Bosa forced a fumble on the Jets’ very next offensive play. The ball was recovered by A.J. Epenesa, creating more momentum with a turnover.

The Bills’ offense took over on the Jets’ 24-yard line but were unable to muster enough for a touchdown on six plays. Allen missed on third-and-8 as he was forced to shuffle to his left in the pocket. The ball sailed over the head of Dalton Kincaid.

This resulted in a 28-yard field goal by Matt Prater and a 10-0 Bills lead.

It was on the next offensive series that Allen ran off the field with an apparent head injury on what appeared to be a broken running play.

On this second-and-7 attempt, Allen simply tried to fall forward toward the line of scrimmage. It appeared in the review that Clemons’ left hand struck Allen inside of his face mask during the tackle. This inadvertent wallop appeared to catch Allen on the bridge of his nose, causing him to leave the field in an unexpected and worrisome panic.

Backup Mitch Trubisky came in at a moment’s notice. He stepped in as if he had started the game with this perfect pass on third-and-7 to Joshua Palmer for 32-yards and a crucial drive-saving conversion.

2. Mitch Trubisky's complete pass to Joshua Palmer on third-and-7​


Trubisky, who was ice-cold standing on the sideline, threw an absolute dime to Palmer. Consider this ball placement versus man-to-man coverage. Trubisky read the coverage and delivered as if he had been playing the whole time. It was an amazing moment.

This demonstrated just how mentally and emotionally dialed-in this Bills team is. Every player has a job to do, and they seem to take that responsibility seriously. This was not a normal backup coming in off the bench. This was an emergency, and Trubisky had literally no time to think, much less warm up. This moment showed just how valuable he is and the type of character he possesses.

Ultimately, because of Trubisky’s 32-yard completion, this series continued into the second quarter. Allen returned one play later with tissues jammed up his left nostril to stop the bleeding. This unusual nine-play, 46-yard possession ended with another 52-yard field goal by Prater to expand the Bills’ lead to 13-0.

SECOND QUARTER​

Play selection: 17 plays (nine passes, seven runs)
Allen: 5 for 9 passing, 56 yards, one sack; two carries for 6 yards.
Performance grade: 82%
Score: Bills, 20-3.

The Jets punted on their first possession of the second quarter, and Allen and the Bills’ offense were again presented with an opportunity to put the game out of reach.

This Allen completion to Keon Coleman on first-and-10 got the Bills out to midfield.

3. Josh Allen's first-and-10 play-action pass to Keon Coleman​


To this point in the game, offensive coordinator Joe Brady had so much rushing success that the Jets were forced into base personnel – four down linemen, three linebackers and four defensive backs.

Brady took advantage of the base personnel with play-action passes like this one. Allen had only three choices following his fake to Cook. The Jets’ linebackers reacted hard to the run fake, which left their secondary in the soft zone. This was as easy as it gets for a quarterback in the NFL.

Allen threw this, his second straight completion to Coleman on this drive. This is a great example of why running the football is so important in the NFL. Success on the ground dictates defensive personnel and often limits what defenses can do. Here the Jets had to stop Cook, and in doing so made themselves vulnerable to the pass.

Cook ripped off this 44-yard touchdown run two plays later to give the Bills a 20-0 lead.

4. James Cook 44-yard touchdown run​


Cook’s run here is simply amazing, and once he gets into the open field, he is almost uncatchable with game-breaking speed.
The Jets kicked a long field goal on their next possession, cutting the Buffalo lead to 20-3 going into halftime.

Allen and the Bills’ offense had five offensive possessions in the first half, which resulted in four scoring drives (touchdown, field goal, field goal, touchdown) and one punt.

Despite the injury to Allen’s nose, the offense had generated 247 yards to the Jets' 78 yards, and the Bills were again winning the turnover differential at plus-1. Allen himself completed 8 of 16 attempts for 70 yards.

The Bills’ successful ground assault alleviated much of the pressure on Allen, which, in the big picture, was a big plus heading into a short week against the Dolphins.

THIRD QUARTER​

Play selection: 21 plays (seven passes, 14 runs)
Allen: 5 for 7 passing, 66 yards; two carries, 13 yards.
Performance grade: 100%
Score: Bills, 23-3.

On the opening series of the second half, the Bills received. This opportunity was a chance to take all of the wind out of the sails of their opponent. Allen and the Bills’ offense did just that with a demoralizing 11-play, field-goal drive that took 5:52 and went a total of 64 yards. This put the Bills ahead 23-3.

This drive again was kept alive by another great play by Allen on third down. This was a third-and-10 completion to Elijah Moore.

5. Josh Allen's third-and-10 perfect throw to Elijah Moore​


Brady used an empty set and this creatively designed flood concept to bait Jets cornerback Michael Carter II, who overcommitted as Moore initially appeared to be running across the field. Carter was so surprised at Moore’s change of direction that he stumbled, tripped over his feet and fell.

This passing concept for Allen is nothing more than a flood concept to his left, just accomplished with different routes. Here, he had a go route, Khalil Shakir on a whip route in the flat, and Moore flooding the area underneath the go. The brilliance here with Brady’s call was that he kept the reads the same for Allen while using the element of surprise with Moore and attacked the man-to-man coverage. This conversion could not have been executed any better. It was perfect, and it expanded the Bills’ lead to 20 points.

The Bills again had a commanding three-possession lead.
Allen and the Bills’ offense did not relent. They made the Jets pay with another powerful and tediously long 12-play drive that took the rest of the third quarter and a total of 6:59. It was Allen again on another third down that made another touchdown drive possible.

6. Josh Allen evades a sack attempt by Sauce Gardner​


As the Bills marched down the field, they stalled on the 10-yard line and were forced to make a play on third-and-3. The Jets had something else on their minds as they sent cornerback Sauce Gardner on this corner blitz. This was a great defensive tactic that surprised Coleman and Ray Davis, who had the inside-out protection responsibility.

Gardner blitzed so quickly that he had gone by Davis before he could react. For any other quarterback, this could have been a terrible blindside hit, but for Allen it was an olé! It was Allen’s instinct and last-second reaction that avoided what could have been a wicked collision and perhaps a turnover.

Corner blitzes are designed to disrupt, and this one certainly did. Gardner at the least should have had a sack and perhaps created a fumble, but Allen’s reflexes and instinct to wheel to his left were unimaginable, even to Gardner who had Allen dead-to-rights. Allen was like a matador holding the red cape for an angry bull. Gardner, the bull, went flying past, with all of his momentum having missed Allen completely.

Very few players that could have avoided this potential sack, and it just so happens that Allen is one of them. Watch Allen as he scrambles, almost orchestrating a touchdown pass to Davis back to the inside before deciding to take the first down and step out of bounds.

This was an incredible play by Allen, whose third down heroics in this game again saved the drive.

Moore took a jet sweep into the end zone on the next play, putting the game out of reach, 30-3 Bills.

FOURTH QUARTER​

Play selection: 12 plays (three passes, nine runs)
Allen: 1 for 2 passing, 12 yards; 0 carries for 0 yards.
Performance grade: 80%
Score: Bills, 30-10.

Allen played one more series into the fourth quarter. It was a three-and-out, and the Bills punted. Trubisky finished the game and drained the rest of the clock for the Bills’ offense.

Trubisky’s contributions in this game were significant in his backup role. He sets the standard for readiness that everyone on this team bleeds. The "next man in" mantra is not lip service; it is how this Sean McDermott team operates. Every player in uniform is ready to contribute at any moment.

It is perhaps this mental and emotional readiness that makes the closeness of this team so easy to see. They root for each other, and that is not something you see everywhere. That selfless chemistry makes it special.

Following the game, Allen responded to questions about how Trubisky stepped up.

"I think that's a true embodiment of the character and the man that he is coming in there and making a play on third down for us. That was a huge drive. It was a huge play. So, shout out Mitch," Allen said afterward.

The insight here for teammates is that everyone matters, and that sets the Bills apart, in my opinion. You just don’t see that level of camaraderie in most other teams.

Conclusion​

Statistically, Allen’s performance was a solid 85%. His value and production in this game were not measured in completions but in his timely third-down plays. When it counted most, he made the plays that made the difference.

Sure, Allen made a couple of mistakes with intentional grounding penalties and missed a couple throws. The silver lining in a game like this was the fact that he didn’t have to be spectacular.

In my opinion, the greater the running emphasis and overall success, the better this Bills team will be. Allen's skill set, his leadership and his execution, combined with a balanced rushing attack, make for an unstoppable offense.

In this short week, the Bills had to prepare to face another AFC East opponent, the Miami Dolphins, with just three days' rest. That made the Jets game the perfect time to dominate an opponent by rushing the football.

Credit must go out to McDermott and his staff for having the Bills emotionally ready to play on the road following their thrilling, roller-coaster victory over the Baltimore Ravens. That Week 1 opponent was a physically and emotionally difficult game, but the Bills played this Week 2 game as if Week 1 had never happened. The focus and resilience was palpable, and that is a great example of how a championship-caliber team naturally goes about their business.

Overall QB Performance Grade: 85.75%​

Passing: 14 of 25 (56%), 148 yards, 0 TDs, 0 INTs
Rushing: 6 carries, 59 yards, 0 fumbles, 0 TDs
 

After sealing a 31-21 win Thursday night with a 30-yard pass on the final drive, Josh Allen’s first question during his postgame news conference centered around one of the few mistakes the reigning MVP made against the Miami Dolphins.

Allen was sacked on third-and-8 with the Buffalo Bills leading at the Dolphins’ 14-yard line and 6:53 left in the second quarter. A chip-shot field goal turned into a 39-yard attempt that Matt Prater missed, and Miami drove 71 yards on 16 plays to tie the score.

“Just understand that I can’t take a sack there and move us backwards,” Allen lamented after he completed 22 of 28 passes for 213 yards and three touchdowns.

1758547415435.png
Bills tight end Dalton Kincaid celebrates with fans during the first quarter en route to a 31-21 victory over the Dolphins at Highmark Stadium on Thursday.
Joshua Bessex, Buffalo News


Heavy is the head that wears the crown. People expect perfection from the Bills. Winning five consecutive AFC East titles and reaching the conference championship game twice in five seasons creates expectations that are often unreachable, even for one of the sport’s most talented players.

Managing those expectations is among the challenges Bills coach Sean McDermott has faced since his ninth season began earlier this month. He was fielding questions about the Super Bowl before they even played a game. And, even though Buffalo is 3-0 for a second year in a row, most postgame questions directed to him were about the team’s mistakes and possible weaknesses.

Rightfully so. The days of celebrating playoff berths in Western New York are long past. Fans bubble with excitement and angst each week during the season because they want to believe this is finally the year the Bills will win it all. Some scrutinize every aspect of the team’s performance out of fear that a generational quarterback like Allen could be squandered because of third-down defense, game management or a flub on special teams.

On paper, these Bills are playing like a Super Bowl contender. With the win Thursday night, Buffalo became the first team in NFL history to score 100-plus points, turn the ball over zero times, commit fewer than 15 penalties and average 150-plus rushing with 250-plus passing yards while winning each of the first three games in a season. Yet they haven’t had a complete performance in any game, either.

An unprecedented comeback over the Baltimore Ravens in Week 1 showcased the resilience that’s been ingrained in the Bills’ culture through nail-biting wins and devastating losses since McDermott took over in 2017. They scored 16 unanswered points in that game because of Allen’s 251 fourth-quarter passing yards and a defense that forced a turnover when the team desperately needed one.

But Buffalo had to overcome two three-and-outs on offense in the first half, Derrick Henry’s 169 rushing yards and some poor kicking that cost Brad Robbins his job as the Bills punter.

“We’re obviously doing our job, going 1-0 each week,” said Allen. “Still a lot to learn from and a lot to grow. A lot of room for growth in this group, a lot of young guys. But guys are stepping up. There’s been some guys down with injuries, and guys are stepping up and making some big-time plays for us, especially on the defensive side of the ball.”

In a 30-10 win over the Jets at MetLife Stadium in Week 2, the defense shut down New York’s rushing attack and the offense gained 403 yards, but the Bills settled for two first-half field goals and punted. The score should have been even more lopsided.

Then, on a short week without two key defensive players, Ed Oliver and Matt Milano, Buffalo forced consecutive three-and-outs in the first half Thursday night to give Allen a chance to make it a blowout.

In addition to Allen’s sack, the Bills punted on consecutive drives and their defense struggled to get off the field against a Miami offense that used short passes to sustain long drives.

After ranking 29th in the NFL in third-down defense last season and going 11 for 11 against the Jets, Buffalo allowed Baltimore and Miami to convert 16 of 27 opportunities. Opponents are also 5 for 5 on fourth down, including Tua Tagovailoa’s 15-yard completion to Jaylen Waddle on fourth-and-4 in the fourth quarter that led to Tyreek Hill’s game-tying touchdown reception.

The pass rush allowed Tagovailoa to escape the pocket, buying enough time for one of his talented receivers to get open downfield. Every winning team makes mistakes each week during the NFL season. No one is perfect. And though there’s an urgency to use their 10 days between games to correct the mishaps that made the score closer than it should have been, there was also a sense of pride in the locker room that the Bills have learned how to win these games when they don’t play their best. Unlike most teams, Buffalo doesn’t beat itself with boneheaded penalties or careless turnovers.

“It’s a confidence builder,” said Bills right guard O’Cyrus Torrence. “It shows that even if we don’t play our best ball, we can still find ways to win. We were able to go out there, take a punch in the mouth, hit them back and, eventually, we were able to pull away.”

Before the rest of the Week 3 slate was played, the Bills’ offense ranked second in yards per game (420), seventh in passing yards per game (257), fifth in yards per play (6.1), second in rushing yards per game (163) and second in points per game (34).

James Cook has looked like one of the best running backs in the NFL with 284 rushing yards on 54 carries, an average of 5.4 yards per attempt, and four touchdowns. Allen’s seven touchdowns are just two fewer than he had through three games to start 2024, and he’s completed 69.7% of his passes. Entering Thursday, Buffalo ranked second and fourth, respectively, in ESPN’s pass-block win rate and run-block win rate. Ten different players have caught a pass for a first down and four have a touchdown reception.

1758547457799.png
Quarterbacks Josh Allen, left, of the Bills and Tua Tagovailoa of the Dolphins get together after Buffalo’s 31-21 win at Highmark Stadium on Thursday.
Harry Scull Jr., Buffalo News


On defense, the Bills have missed at least one projected starter in each of the first three games. They allowed an average of just 215 yards in wins over the Jets and Dolphins.

The Bills needed rookie cornerback Dorian Strong, a sixth-round pick, to start Week 1 because Tre’Davious White and first-round pick Maxwell Hairston were injured. In Week 2, Buffalo relied on rookie defensive tackles T.J. Sanders and Deone Walker because Oliver went down in practice with an ankle injury. Taron Johnson, their nickel cornerback, didn’t play either, and Milano wasn’t available in the second half. Two of their offseason acquisitions, edge rusher Michael Hoecht and defensive tackle Larry Ogunjobi, are halfway through their six-game suspensions.

The losses have contributed to Buffalo allowing 23.7 points per game − opponents averaged 16 points during the Bills’ 3-0 start to the 2024 season − but the pass rush has looked better with Joey Bosa instead of Von Miller. Terrel Bernard’s performance Thursday night may have been the best in his career. Safeties Cole Bishop and Taylor Rapp rebounded from their rocky showing in Week 1. The Bills knew they were going to be young on defense, especially while Hoecht and Ogunjobi are out, and inexperienced players are more prone to mistakes. But they shut down the past two running backs they faced, Breece Hall and De’Von Achane, after Henry had five rushes of 10-plus yards in Week 1.

Be patient, Bills fans. You have earned the right to demand and expect more each game day. You’ve also experienced enough heartbreak over the years to understand that every margin matters once the playoffs begin. There’s plenty for the Bills to fix over the next 14 regular-season games, but it became clear over the past three weeks that this team has the blend of talent, discipline and coaching to be one of the NFL’s few legitimate Super Bowl contenders.
 
Balls

Lions. Whooped the Ravens ass.

Bucs. 3-0. Baker Mayfield is inevitable.

Chargers. See above, replace Mayfield for Herbert. This team looks more threatening than KC or Bal at the moment.

Vikes and Seahawks. Steamrolled their opponents. Vikings did it with Carson Wentz starting.

Commanders. Another team that won despite starting their backup QB.

Blocked kicks galore. Special Teams are once again relevant in the NFL.



Goats

Lamar and Henry with clutch fumbles (again). But don't tell the media or you'll be labeled a bad word.

Rams. Blew a comfortable lead on the Eagles.

Dallas. When you make Caleb Williams look like prime Tom Brady you know you suck.

Raiders. Lost to Marcus Mariotta. Common man

Atlanta. What a mess of a game that was.

GB. I know the Brownies have a great D. But they are the Browns.

Russel Wilson. That last series near the goal line was painful to watch. Dude is so washed up. Giants need to start the noob.
 
Russ is toast. He was successful for a while but age is magnified by his stature. 5’11” is tiny to be old in a pocket composed of redwoods.

Short QBs never succeed long term in today’s game. (Apologies to the outlier Brees.

No Kyler sucks… stop it.

Another issue that only I see…. Bo Nix has short arms… Denver will wilt.

Josh is 6’5”. Herbert an inch taller.

Bryce Young is 5’10”.., nuff said
 
Balls

Lions. Whooped the Ravens ass.

Bucs. 3-0. Baker Mayfield is inevitable.

Chargers. See above, replace Mayfield for Herbert. This team looks more threatening than KC or Bal at the moment.

Vikes and Seahawks. Steamrolled their opponents. Vikings did it with Carson Wentz starting.

Commanders. Another team that won despite starting their backup QB.

Blocked kicks galore. Special Teams are once again relevant in the NFL.



Goats

Lamar and Henry with clutch fumbles (again). But don't tell the media or you'll be labeled a bad word.

Rams. Blew a comfortable lead on the Eagles.

Dallas. When you make Caleb Williams look like prime Tom Brady you know you suck.

Raiders. Lost to Marcus Mariotta. Common man

Atlanta. What a mess of a game that was.

GB. I know the Brownies have a great D. But they are the Browns.

Russel Wilson. That last series near the goal line was painful to watch. Dude is so washed up. Giants need to start the noob.
That man single handedly ruined my perfect sportsball weekend. Well that and the Toronto Blue Jays, but then the Jays are actually a very good ball club who may actually play well into October, but the Giants? Good God, 3 damn turnovers made all the difference in that game, and I hope Russ has played his last.
 
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