Welcome to the midweek Bills Mailbag. Let’s get right to your questions …
Robert K. asks: “Replay assist.” What does that even mean? The Bills didn’t challenge a Patriots catch, but replay assist ruled a Buffalo catch to be incomplete. Why didn’t replay assist rule the Patriots’ catch incomplete? When does 23 seconds minus 10 seconds equal 15 seconds? Then the clock never started with 6 seconds left in the first half, but they determined 2 seconds were left on the clock, which allowed for a Patriots field goal.
This pass to Bills receiver Brandin Cooks on Sunday was ruled incomplete after replay assist was used.
Harry Scull Jr., Buffalo News
Jay: Here is the explanation on what replay assist is, from the NFL Operations department: “In 2025, Instant Replay will have an expanded ability to advise on-field officials on specific, objective aspects of a play and/or to address game administration issues when clear and obvious video evidence is present. Replay officials and designated members of the NFL officiating department can advise on-field crews based on clear and obvious video evidence. The expansion of the replay assistance rule facilitates the administration of the game and limits stoppages on certain rulings, reducing the need for challenges and booth reviews by sharing information in real-time.”
Left unsaid in that description is the key to the whole thing: When is it used? Why was it used on Brandin Cooks' catch in the first quarter for the Bills, which was then ruled an incompletion, but not used on Kayshon Boutte’s, which stayed a catch even after replays showed the ball moving as it made contact with the ground. Nowhere in the definition of replay assistance does it say when it will be applied, which in my mind leads to problems like we saw against the Patriots. As for the clock, the side judge is responsible for keeping time, but once again, there is a gray area. Again, from the NFL Operations website, part of the side judge’s duties are listed as “serves as the primary timekeeper if the game clock malfunctions.” Because the clock malfunctioned, meaning it didn’t start, with 6 seconds left. So was the official keeping the time on a stopwatch for that play? Again, it’s not clear. The officials should be more accessible in these instances to answer these questions, because they are important to the integrity of the game.
Dennis K. asks: After reading a postgame comment made by a Bills player who said something to the effect of “they threw some different looks at us that we didn’t expect,” is this an indication the players are unprepared, the coaches are lacking in awareness that the other team won’t run the exact same plays week to week or the players’ inability to adapt to those “different looks” before halftime?
Jay: I’m sure the coaches know that teams aren’t going to run the same plays, so I’m guessing you’re being facetious in that regard. I agree, Dennis, that does get a bit tiring hearing players or coaches saying that the other team gave them a look they weren’t expecting. The fair question to ask is: Well, why not? In regards to the game against New England, it’s worth pointing out the Patriots were coming off their bye week, so it’s reasonable to think they might have had an extra wrinkle or two cooked up with the additional time to prepare for the game. That does not mean the defensive effort in the first half should be excused. It was unacceptable no matter how you slice it. It’s a classic “glass half full or half empty” scenario. On one hand, the defense has shown an ability to adjust on the fly. I’d argue that it has played well enough in three of the four losses – against Atlanta, New England in the first game and Houston – to give the team a chance to win. Of course, it’s also allowed more than 31 points four times this season – efforts that probably should have resulted in losses – but has been bailed out in each of those games by the offense. The Bills are 4-0 in games when the opponent scores 31 points or more. That’s an absurd stat.
Ed in Tonawanda asks: Rasul Douglas is apparently having a very good season with Miami. He’s not the first player to leave Buffalo and do well. My question is, how good are our position coaches? Do you expect any changes to the coaching staff?
Bills offensive line coach Aaron Kromer looks on against the Dolphins on Nov. 9.
Harry Scull, Buffalo News
Jay: There are coaching changes after most every season, so I would be more surprised if the Bills stood pat with all of their coaches than I would if they made some changes. How good are they? Well, that’s pretty tough to evaluate. I’m comfortable saying Aaron Kromer is darn good at his job as offensive line coach. The Bills haven’t gotten much production out of wide receivers. How much of that falls to wide receivers coach Adam Henry, or general manager Brandon Beane for not getting more talented players for Henry to work with? The right answer is probably in the middle. You do raise a good point, Ed, in that Douglas, as well as defensive tackles Poona Ford and Tim Settle, are good examples of players who have left Buffalo and done a nice job. They’re not stars, but they are meaningful contributors. Especially in the case of Ford and Settle, it’s fair to wonder why the Bills didn’t get more out of them.
Sam Ruggiero asks: If the Bills and Patriots finish the season with the same record, what is the order of the next tiebreaker to determine the division champion?
Jay: Let’s assume the Bills win out and both teams finish 13-4. To break a tie within a division, the first tiebreaker applied is head-to-head matchups. The Bills and Patriots split that one. After that, it goes to division record. Currently, Buffalo is 3-2 in the AFC East with one game remaining, against the Jets in Week 18. The Patriots are 3-1 and face the Jets in Week 17 and Dolphins in Week 18. If they lose one of those games, the next tiebreaker applied is record in common games. In this scenario, the Bills would be 10-2 in common games with England. The Patriots would also be 10-2 if they lose a divisional game. After that, the next tiebreaker is record within the conference. If the Patriots lose a divisional game, they’d finish 8-4 in the AFC. The Bills would get the edge there, because if they win out they’ll finish 9-3 in the AFC. So the path to winning the division for the Bills looks like this: Either finish with a better record outright than New England, finish with the same record but have the Patriots lose both division games or finish with the same record and have them lose at least one division game while the Bills win out. Unlikely, but not impossible.
GDW asks: It’s no secret that the Bills have one of the worst run defenses in the league. With only three games remaining before the playoffs begin, do you see them at least experimenting with more 4-3 defense to help fix the problem?
Jay: The Bills have done that this season. The amount of nickel defense they’ve played this year is at 61.3% of their 786 defensive snaps, according to the NFL’s Next Gen Stats. They’ve used a base, 4-3 alignment on 20% of those 786 snaps, which is a huge increase from last year. In 2024, the Bills were in a 4-3 just 4% of the time, with the nickel package being used 80% of the time. The usage of the team’s dime package also has increased from 14.9% last season to 18.3% this year. It’s possible the use of a base 4-3 scheme could go up even more over the final three weeks and into the playoffs, but that will likely be matchup based.