Bills vs Chiefs 2.0
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Analysis: Bills face third tough run defense in a row in Kansas City
Can the Bills make it three big rushing days against top opponents?
The Buffalo Bills’ running game has been nothing short of amazing in two playoff games, considering the quality of the competition.
The Bills rolled up 210 rushing yards in the wild-card win over a Denver defense that ranked No. 3 against the run in both efficiency and yards allowed (96 a game).
The Bills grinded out 147 rushing yards in Sunday’s divisional round win over a Baltimore defense that ranked No. 1 in rush yards allowed (80 per game) and No. 2 in run defense efficiency.
Bills running back James Cook fights for extra yards with the assistance of lineman O’Cyrus Torrence, left, against the Ravens on Sunday. Harry Scull Jr., Buffalo News
“I felt yesterday, the way that the game was going, that controlling the football and being able to run the ball was giving us opportunity,” offensive coordinator Joe Brady said Monday evening. “That was nothing against Josh (Allen) or anything like that. We obviously had some opportunities in the pass game, and we got behind the chains a little bit in the second half. That made life a lot harder for us. But specifically in the first half, I felt like controlling the line of scrimmage was in our favor.”
The Bills ran 20 times and dropped back to pass on eight occasions in the first half in building a 21-10 lead over the Ravens. The Bills’ total was the most rushing yards allowed by Baltimore all season, and the Bills had more rushing yards in the first half (87) than the Ravens allowed per game.
Efficiency measures expected points added based on game situations. A 15-yard gain on third-and-10 from the opponent 20 is better than a 15-yard gain on third-and-20 from your own 20.
Another analytic teams look at is success rate, which is when a play gains 40% of the yards to go on first down, 60% on second down and 100% on third down. The Bills’ first-half success rate running against the Ravens was 75% (15 of the 20 runs), and it was 50% in the second half.
The Ravens’ defense allowed only 35.8% success vs. the run during the season, second only to Denver (33.6%).
Can the Bills make it three big rushing days against top opponents?
Kansas City’s defense isn’t ranked as highly as Denver’s or Baltimore’s but it’s good by most measures.
The Chiefs ranked No. 8 in rushing yards allowed (114 a game) and No. 7 in yards per carry allowed (4.14). They were 11th in defensive efficiency against the run.
In the 30-21 regular-season win over Kansas City, the Bills actually had a tougher time running than they did the past two weeks.
The Bills ran 29 times for 102 yards, a sub-par 3.5-yard average but good enough for the offense to stay balanced. (That doesn’t count kneel-down plays.) However, take away Allen’s 44 yards in scrambles, and the Bills had just 58 yards on 25 runs, a 2.3-yard average.
Josh Allen scrambles for yards against Kansas City during the Bills’ 30-21 win over the Chiefs on Nov. 17. Harry Scull Jr., Buffalo News
The Bills’ 30 points were the most the Chiefs allowed this season (not counting a meaningless Week 18 game). However, the pass was better than the run for Buffalo. Allen was 27 of 40 for 262 yards and a TD.
The Bills are well aware of the quality of the Kansas City defense, which has a long track record of excellence under coordinator Steve Spagnuolo.
“They have the best player in football, right?” Brady said. “Best defensive player in football − Chris Jones. I mean, he is as dynamic as they come. And they have 11 guys that play together as a defense, and all understand their scheme, and they’re extremely well coached. When you got really good players and really good scheme and coaching, it makes it really hard. It’s going to be a great opportunity, a great challenge for us this week.”
The Chiefs won four of the five games they played against top-10 offenses (beating the Ravens, Bucs, Bengals and 49ers and losing to the Bills). Yet the Chiefs have not faced a murderer’s row of offenses since their loss to the Bills on Nov. 17. Since then, the efficiency of the offenses they’ve faced is: Panthers (25th), Raiders (30th), Chargers (13th), Browns (32nd), Texans (23rd) and Steelers (21st). That doesn’t count the regular-season finale against Denver, when the Chiefs rested their starters.
The Bills’ best running vs. Kansas City happened when they spread out the Chiefs’ defense, which aided Allen’s ability to take off on scrambles. The only run the Bills had for 10-plus yards was Allen’s 26-yard scramble for the clinching touchdown.
One benefit of leaning on the run game vs. Baltimore was the Bills avoided a shootout against the Ravens’ explosive offense. Brady said he was thankful for the Bills’ run-game execution.
“It’s playoff football, right?” Brady said. “And it’s cold outside. ... You need to be a physical football team and be able to establish the line of scrimmage. And I’m fortunate for the offense line that we have, the trust that I have in them and our backs. ... It always points to the offensive line, but the wide receivers and the tight ends that we have in the run game are doing all the unselfish work.”
One failure in the run game came on the Bills’ last field-goal drive. Allen ran for 5 yards on a second-and-goal play to get to the 2. On third down, Allen was stuffed on another QB keeper for no gain. The Bills opted for a 21-yard field goal.
Brady explained he was hoping to get at least a yard on third down, then go for it on fourth-and-goal from the 1, if necessary.
“You get a good run on second down, get down to the 2-yard line, and then you’re sitting there saying, ‘OK ... you’re expecting to have two downs right there. You’re expecting you’re going to gain yards one way or the other.’ ... You can always go back and say, ‘Hey, what are better play calls that we can get to?’ The one that we ran there was similar to the touchdown earlier in the game (a 4-yard run by Allen).”
Ravens safety Ar’Darius Washington was unaccounted for to stuff the third-down play because he ignored receiver Mack Hollins, running free in the flat, to crash down on Allen.
“The guy that we thought would be covering Mac in that situation didn’t cover him, and is an unblocked player,” Brady said. “So there’s always hindsight. ... Yeah, I wish I can get that one back, for sure.”
After knocking off Ravens, ‘different’ Bills turn their attention to all-too-familiar Chiefs
The previous playoff meetings with the Chiefs are filled with painful memories.
www.nytimes.com
With every Ravens turnover, every field goal forced instead of surrendering a touchdown, and every failed two-point conversion that kept the opponents just out of reach, it marched the Bills closer and closer to what they’ve been yearning to get back to for years.
At long last, the Bills have returned to the AFC Championship Game. Their 27-25 triumph over the Ravens exorcised several demons in both this season and previous ones.
Over the last three years, it’s been like a record stuck in a loop, repeating the same part of the song that drives everyone listening up the wall. In the divisional round, a super-talented Bills team with so much promise eventually yielded the way to the final four to another AFC superpower. First, it was the Chiefs. Then it was the Bengals. Then the Chiefs again. But this year… this year was different.
“You learn from all of the scars,” left tackle Dion Dawkins said. “You never want that feeling again.”
“I think there’s something kind of intangible about this team that feels different,” tight end Dawson Knox said. “It’s kind of hard to put your finger on.”
Knox isn’t alone. It’s a sentiment shared throughout the locker room, permeating throughout the fan base. Some think it’s the players. Others may point to how head coach Sean McDermott has evolved. However, that unquantifiable feeling about how the 2024-2025 Bills are different, in fact, yielded a different outcome than the past.
With all the talk centering on the Ravens and how the Bills would have to adjust to them, they forced the Ravens to adjust. The Bills kept Derrick Henry below the century mark after allowing him to hit nearly 200 rushing yards in Week 4. They took the fight to the Ravens’ defensive line, who, for good reason, drew rave reviews for their run-defending. The Bills running backs averaged 4.9 yards per carry on 26 attempts. They forced Ravens quarterback Lamar Jackson into two game-changing turnovers.
And by the end of the evening, there the Bills stood, with snow trickling down, allowing the scoreboard’s bright red, white and royal blue lights to shine a jumbotron-long banner even brighter.
“Next stop, AFC Championship.”
And that next stop is to Kansas City — because, of course it is.
The very Chiefs team that gave the Bills a cruel lesson on what it takes in the AFC Championship Game four years ago, who punished them for in-game mistakes and flawed decisions en route to a blowout loss, well, there they are again — the AFC gatekeepers of the Super Bowl.
Only 13 players from that AFC Championship Game Bills team remain on the roster. Allen, Dawkins and Knox were there, along with Micah Hyde, Matt Milano, Taron Johnson, Ed Oliver, A.J. Epenesa, Cam Lewis, Reggie Gilliam, Quinton Jefferson, Tyler Bass and Reid Ferguson.
The original 13 are acutely aware of just how poetic the upcoming showdown is.
“Yeah, 100 percent,” Lewis said. “I feel like we wouldn’t want it no other way.”
“I was watching the (Chiefs-Texans) game the other night with my girlfriend,” Epenesa started. “She was like, ‘What if the Texans win?’ I was like, ‘Yeah, you know, on paper they’re the lesser team, whatever, whatever, but how much sweeter would it be to be able to beat the team that got us a couple of times in the past and everything like that?’ So I’m definitely on that page right now as we have our opportunity to do something, and I’m looking forward to it.”
A lot has changed for the Bills between the first AFC Championship matchup and now.
At that point, the Bills were simply novices. It was all new to them after only getting to the wild-card round the year before. They didn’t know what they didn’t know about deep playoff runs. The expectation was that they’d be back — and soon. It was only a matter of time.
“Soon” wasn’t quite what everyone expected. The Bills have learned difficult lessons, year after year, most of which were dealt to them by the very franchise they’ll face next weekend.
On Sunday, the Bills will have played in Kansas City more times than they have at any of their division rivals over the last five years. They’ve been there every year since that first AFC title tilt, with Sunday marking their sixth soiree at Arrowhead. It will be the eighth meeting between these two AFC behemoths over the last five years, four happening in the postseason.
But you don’t have to be reminded about how the last three have turned out. Most fans of the team have carried the weight like an elephant sitting on their collective chest.
AFC Championship Game in 2021 — a lopsided loss. AFC Divisional round in 2022 — a gut-punching loss with victory being so close they could taste it. AFC Divisional round in 2024 — another loss so close it had many wondering if the Bills would even return after an offseason roster refresh.
It all led to this year — the return to the AFC Championship Game coming in a year where no one thought it possible before the season. Standing before the Chiefs on Sunday will be the Bills, a sculpted Super Bowl contender, hardened by one excruciating playoff exit after another.
“For the guys that were there [in 2021], it’ll definitely I think be a little extra chip on the shoulder,” Knox started. “In a way, it can help. You can let it fuel you a little bit, but if you dwell on it too hard or too long, I think it’s distracting at a point. But if you kind of just let it lay underneath the surface, if it helps you bring a little extra motivation, a little extra work in the week, great. But we’re not going to be dwelling on that too hard.”
That’s one of many things that have changed about this Bills team.
Gone is the wily Allen, who, through all his brilliance, had a penchant for a back-breaking turnover. Gone are the one-dimensional, pass-happy Bills, who ran the ball well only after ample success through the air. Gone is the weak-link offensive line of the past that led to uneven results. And gone is a head coach who usually opted toward conservative in-game decisions.
In their place is a franchise quarterback playing the best football of his life, a running game that can take all the pressure off that franchise quarterback at any point during a game, an offensive line that is one of the team’s greatest strengths and a coach in complete trust of his players and the math, unafraid of fourth downs.
But opposing them will be a Chiefs team that has pivoted multiple times throughout its incredible run, all while remaining the class of the NFL. And certainly, a team eager to undo their lone loss of the 2024 regular season against the team that spoiled its perfect season.
The Bills and Chiefs are perfectly intertwined, both in their personal connectors and playoff histories. However, as always, neither can live while the other survives.
“History does have a way of repeating itself,” Dawkins said. “But sometimes, it has a different outcome. We’ll see how this one goes.”
It's just a spread offense bu if they cover then the there's one less defender against the run
sukie
Well-known member
Yeah it’s a spread all to 1 side in a diamond formation. With different breakouts at the snap along with pre snap motion.
herodotus
Well-known member
1. In 2020 they went 9-0 and then did this horse shit move where they went into a shell. 2021? They did the same shit. They started out conservative and then Josh almost won. 2023? Same fucking thing. Put the fucking ball in Josh's fucking hands, hell put the ball on his dick just fucking make sure Josh has that damn ball. Sure, dink it, dunk it but you better fucking think you're down 21 and score every drive.
2. Inside the 40? Its 4 down territory. No pussy punts on any less than 4th and 5.
3. Defense? They like hitting, fine they iniure one of ours we send theirs to the morgue. Worthy is good but little smack him like a bug. Kelce? Hit him. Jam them up on the line. Pat Mahomes? Leave him untouched unless he does the flop shit. Look, he wants to get a roughing the passer you rough that bitch up
4. There is no tomorrow, you got that thing you have been working on since August? Fucking do it
5. Play smart football, make Jones a non entity and since they like targeting qb legs go for theirs.
Do that and don't turn the fucking ball over and damn it we're going to the fucking Superbowl.
2. Inside the 40? Its 4 down territory. No pussy punts on any less than 4th and 5.
3. Defense? They like hitting, fine they iniure one of ours we send theirs to the morgue. Worthy is good but little smack him like a bug. Kelce? Hit him. Jam them up on the line. Pat Mahomes? Leave him untouched unless he does the flop shit. Look, he wants to get a roughing the passer you rough that bitch up
4. There is no tomorrow, you got that thing you have been working on since August? Fucking do it
5. Play smart football, make Jones a non entity and since they like targeting qb legs go for theirs.
Do that and don't turn the fucking ball over and damn it we're going to the fucking Superbowl.
herodotus
Well-known member
Gimme something like 51-3. I want to hear the mafia singing Brightside in the 4th and Mahomes throwing temper tantrums
SpikedLemonade
Well-known member
To me, THE biggest surprise of this season is the improvement in our run game.
It is NOT just the rushing yardage but our ability to run the ball successfully when we choose to and in key parts of the game.
It is NOT just the rushing yardage but our ability to run the ball successfully when we choose to and in key parts of the game.
SpikedLemonade
Well-known member
I am surprised by the very good OL play.
There really is NOT much talent there.
The line calls, coaching and systems has really made them into a top 5 OL unit.
Ryan O'Halloran: Patrick Mahomes knows his best will be required in latest duel against Josh Allen
Reaching the AFC title game is old hat for Kansas City's Patrick Mahomes, but he knows his best will be required against Josh Allen.
A bit of perspective about Kansas City Chiefs quarterback Patrick Mahomes and his run of consistent success.
The last time an AFC championship game was played without Mahomes, it was seven years ago Tuesday.
Josh Allen was at the Senior Bowl. Bills offensive coordinator Joe Brady and quarterbacks coach Ronald Curry shared an office as entry-level New Orleans Saints assistants. And rookies Keon Coleman and Cole Bishop were 14 and 15 years old, respectively.
The New England Patriots beat the Jacksonville Jaguars on Jan. 21, 2018. All these years later – as teams fired and hired general managers and coaches, traded and signed and discarded quarterbacks and added defensive pieces to beat the Chiefs, Mahomes is right back in his comfort zone.
Mahomes and the Chiefs will play in their seventh consecutive conference title game (seventh!) against the Bills here on Sunday.
“Our young guys (on the Chiefs) don’t even know what not making the AFC championship game is,” safety Justin Reid said before practice Wednesday. “That’s not normal at all.”
Chiefs quarterback Patrick Mahomes passes under pressure from Bills defensive end Greg Rousseau in the Bills’ 30-21 win in November. Harry Scull Jr., Buffalo News
Not even close to being normal.
Only New England (nine) has played in at least seven consecutive conference title games. Not the 1970s Steelers. Not the 1980s 49ers. Not the 1990s Cowboys. Just the Patriots and Chiefs.
Mahomes picked up the baton from Tom Brady when he left the Patriots after the 2019 season and has outdueled Allen, Cincinnati’s Joe Burrow, Baltimore’s Lamar Jackson and Tennessee’s Ryan Tannehill once apiece to reach the Super Bowl.
This will be Mahomes-Allen II in the AFC title game, Mahomes-Allen IV in the playoffs and Mahomes-Allen IX overall.
If there was ever a game for Mahomes when he absolutely, positively knows his best will be required, it is against Allen.
“I’ve played against Josh enough times to know he’s going to come out and play great football, especially in those big moments,” Mahomes said. “For me, I have to play my best when I get the opportunity.”
Mahomes has been his best on the big stage – a staggering 16-3 playoff record (13-2 at home). But really, he’s been at his best since taking over for Alex Smith ahead of the 2018 season. Instantly great.
Mahomes’ breakout play was in an October 2018 Monday night game in Denver when he threw a pass left-handed as he was falling to the turf. The Chiefs rallied from a 10-point second-half deficit to win and Broncos players were asking reporters, “He threw that left-handed, right?”
The Chiefs rallied from a 10-point deficit in the second half to beat the Broncos and the Legend of Patrick was kicked into gear. Mahomes became my favorite NFL player to watch in-person until I moved to Buffalo in September 2022. Now it’s Allen and Mahomes as 1 and 1A.
Since that night in Denver, the wins and highlight plays haven’t stopped, especially in the playoffs.
Mahomes in his four AFC title game wins – nine touchdown passes and no interceptions.
Mahomes in his two AFC title game losses – six touchdowns and two interceptions.
Much like this has been a unique season for Allen in how he has spread the football around and reduced his turnovers, the same goes for Mahomes.
Mahomes threw nine interceptions in the Chiefs’ first seven games. Kansas City was 7-0, but the passing game just looked clunky minus Marquise Brown (injured).
But like most situations he has faced during his career, Mahomes figured it out after losing to the Bills, 30-21, in Week 11 – no interceptions since.
The Bills intercepted Mahomes twice in that game (safety Taylor Rapp early and linebacker Terrel Bernard late).
“I tried to clean those up as best as I can, but I’m still going to take chances and still give guys chances to make plays,” Mahomes said. “In that (Bills) game, the (first) INT hurt the team just with the momentum of the game, especially being at their home stadium. The guy was open, I just have to set my feet and make the throw. The last (interception), I’m going to go down fighting at the end of the game and I was trying to make a throw on fourth down and (Bernard) made a great play.”
Since that Bills game, Mahomes hasn’t lost (7-0) and has a combined 12 touchdowns and no interceptions. He sat out the regular-season finale at Denver.
Mahomes to tight end Travis Kelce. Mahomes to Brown. Mahomes to DeAndre Hopkins. And Mahomes to Xavier Worthy. So many issues for which to prepare for the Bills’ defense.
This conference championship game thing is old hat for Mahomes, but he is acutely aware of how well Allen has played this year and in past matchups.
“We’ve been able to beat them in the playoffs (3-0) and they’ve gotten us in the regular season (1-4),” Mahomes said. “Every game has been close and it comes down to a play here or there that impacts the game.”
We should expect nothing less from Mahomes and Allen on Sunday night.
Victor7
Well-known member
Take the early lead as we usually do and then FUCKING KILL them. Do NOT, go into, run down the clock mode with conservative play calling on O and prevent defense that does nothing but allow scores.
Go for the KILL.
And I do agree on hitting Mahomes. If we are gonna get flagged anyway, might as well make it count with a massive hit. Milano, you are up buddy.
Go for the KILL.
And I do agree on hitting Mahomes. If we are gonna get flagged anyway, might as well make it count with a massive hit. Milano, you are up buddy.