Can the Bills land the top seed in the AFC playoffs? Where they stand entering Week 13
Every AFC team with a winning record is in playoff position, creating a final month of jockeying for seeding.
Welcome to the top-heavy AFC playoff race.
Just seven teams have winning records entering Week 13. Six teams have at least eight losses, and the seventh seed, Denver, is 1½ games clear of the next-closest team.
Compare that to this time last year. The Houston Texans were 6-5 and the Buffalo Bills 6-6 – seventh and ninth in the AFC, respectively. A month later, the Texans and Bills were division champions.
Can a team rise up this year? Unlikely. The top seven teams are playing too well.
Here is a look at the teams currently in playoff position (in order of current standing):
1. Kansas City Chiefs
Record: 10-1 (first, AFC West).Head-to-head tiebreakers: Wins – Baltimore, Denver and the Los Angeles Chargers. Loss – Bills.
Remaining schedule: vs. Las Vegas, vs. L.A. Chargers, at Cleveland, vs. Houston, at Pittsburgh and at Denver.
Record in one-possession games: 8-0. To go one step further, the Chiefs are 3-0 in games decided by three or fewer points.
Current form: Wheezing or bored. The Chiefs needed a blocked field goal against Denver and a made field goal to win as time expired against Carolina, which sandwiched a 30-21 loss to the Bills. Are the Chiefs showing signs of injury attrition and the pressure of going for a Super Bowl three-peat? Or are they merely bored and waiting for January? We’ll know starting in Week 14 against the Chargers.
Key statistic: 52.7%. The Chiefs’ offense leads the league on third down, one of only two teams above 47%. (Tampa Bay is the other at 50.4%.)
Predicted final record: 14-3 (No. 2 in AFC). The schedule is daunting, which includes a Sunday-Saturday-Wednesday stretch along with Baltimore, Houston and Pittsburgh to accommodate Christmas Day games. The Chiefs won the Super Bowl last year as the AFC’s third seed, winning at Buffalo and Baltimore, so the road won’t scare them.
Led by quarterback Josh Allen, the Bills are 9-2 entering Sunday night’s game against the 49ers. Harry Scull Jr., Buffalo News
2. Buffalo Bills
Record: 9-2 (first, AFC East).Head-to-head tiebreakers: Win – Kansas City. Losses – Baltimore and Houston.
Remaining schedule: vs. San Francisco, at L.A. Rams, at Detroit, vs. New England, vs. N.Y. Jets and at New England.
Record in one-possession games: 3-1. The Bills have one-score wins over Arizona (six), the N.Y. Jets (three) and Miami (three) and a three-point loss at Houston.
Current form: Surging on offense and defense. During their six-game win streak, the Bills have scored at least 30 points five times and allowed more than 21 points just once. Their point differential during the streak is 11.7 points per game.
Key statistic: Plus-14. The Bills lead the NFL in turnover differential – fifth-most in takeaways (21) and second in fewest giveaways (seven). The Bills have outscored opponents 85-27 in points off turnovers and have no games with a negative turnover differential.
Predicted final record: 14-3 (No. 1 seed in AFC on basis of head-to-head tie-breaker over Kansas City). For the first time since 1993, their last Super Bowl season, the Bills will have the conference’s top seed.
3. Pittsburgh Steelers
Record: 8-3 (first, AFC North).Head-to-head tiebreakers: Wins – Denver, L.A. Chargers and Baltimore. Losses – None.
Remaining schedule: at Cincinnati, vs. Cleveland, at Philadelphia, at Baltimore, vs. Kansas City and vs. Cincinnati.
Record in one-possession games: 6-2. Pittsburgh is 2-1 in games decided by three or fewer points.
Current form: Winning with defense. The Steelers are fourth in fewest points allowed (16.9) and stopping the run (90.3 yards).
Key statistic: 32:08. The Steelers lead the league in average possession time, and they have run 721 plays from scrimmage compared to 640 by their opponents.
Predicted final record: 10-7 (second in AFC North and No. 5 seed in AFC). The sledding is about to get difficult for the Steelers, particularly on the road. They will be underdogs and lose at the Bengals, Eagles and Ravens to fall out of the division lead.
4. Houston Texans
Record: 7-5 (first, AFC South).Head-to-head tiebreakers: Win – Buffalo. Losses – None.
Remaining schedule: at Jacksonville, bye, vs. Miami, at Kansas City, vs. Baltimore and at Tennessee.
Record in one-possession games: 5-3. Seven of the Texans’ one-score games have been decided by five or fewer points (5-1 record).
Current form: Slumping and thankful to be in the AFC South. The Texans started 5-1, but are currently in a 2-4 slump in which the offense has eclipsed 26 points only twice. A positive for Houston is it has receiver Nico Collins back. He had nine catches in his two games since returning from a hamstring injury.
Key statistic: 40. The Texans have allowed the fourth-most sacks in the league.
Predicted final record: 10-7 (first in AFC South and No. 4 seed in AFC). Thank goodness for the AFC South. Yes, Tennessee won at Houston on Sunday, but the Texans will beat the Jaguars and Titans to earn a second consecutive division title and a first-round matchup against Pittsburgh.
Ravens running back Derrick Henry’s 1,325 rushing yards rank second in the NFL, behind only Saquon Barkley of the Eagles (1,392). Joshua Bessex, Buffalo News
5. Baltimore Ravens
Record: 8-4 (second, AFC North).Head-to-head tiebreakers: Wins – Bills and L.A. Chargers. Losses – Kansas City and Pittsburgh.
Remaining schedule: vs. Philadelphia, bye, at N.Y. Giants, vs. Pittsburgh, at Houston and vs. Cleveland.
Record in one-possession games: 5-4. The Ravens’ four losses are by a combined 16 points.
Current form: Unstoppable … at times. Watching quarterback Lamar Jackson and running back Derrick Henry pick apart the Chargers’ defense on Monday night, it is semi-remarkable how Baltimore is ever slowed down offensively. The passing defense ranks 31st in yards allowed (277.7) and must improve.
Key statistic: 101. The Ravens lead the NFL in enforced penalties, nine more than the next-closest team (Kansas City). They lead the league in offensive holding penalties (23).
Predicted final record: 12-5 (first, AFC North and No. 3 seed in AFC). The Ravens have a short week to prepare for the surging Eagles (seven consecutive wins) on Sunday, but then get the bye. They should be favored to go 5-0 down the stretch, but will lose to Philadelphia and go 4-1.
6. L.A. Chargers
Record: 8-4 (second, AFC West).Head-to-head tiebreakers: Win – Denver. Losses – Pittsburgh, Kansas City and Baltimore.
Remaining schedule: at Atlanta, at Kansas City, vs. Tampa Bay, vs. Denver, at New England and at Las Vegas.
Record in one-possession games: 2-2. No Chargers game this year – win or lose – has been decided by fewer than seven points.
Current form: Suddenly concerning. Monday’s loss to Baltimore was a red flag – the Chargers allowed 212 rushing yards and managed only 285 yards of offense. Quarterback Justin Herbert threw for only 218 yards against what was the NFL’s worst passing defense. The offense doesn’t rank among the top 10 in any key category.
Key statistic: 15.9. The Chargers are allowing the fewest points per game in the league, but gave up 27 and 30 points in their last two games.
Predicted final record: 11-6 (second in AFC West and No. 6 seed in AFC). The key game will be a Thursday night match-up against Denver in Week 16. The Chargers will win to secure the sixth seed.
7. Denver Broncos
Record: 7-5 (third, AFC West).Head-to-head tiebreakers: Wins – None. Losses – Pittsburgh, Kansas City, Baltimore and L.A. Chargers.
Remaining schedule: vs. Cleveland, bye, vs. Indianapolis, at L.A. Chargers, at Cincinnati and vs. Kansas City.
Record in one-possession games: 1-4. The average margin of the Broncos’ seven wins is 16.4 points.
Current form: Pouncing on the soft part of their schedule. The Broncos routed Atlanta (38-6) and outlasted Las Vegas (29-19) in their last two games and now get Cleveland and Indianapolis at home to really get on a roll. The Broncos’ five losses have been to teams above .500 – Seattle, Pittsburgh, the Chargers, Baltimore and Kansas City.
Key statistic: 39.4%. The Broncos rank first in red-zone defense. Opponents have scored two touchdowns in 10 red-zone trips in the last three games.
Predicted final record: 10-7 (third in AFC West and No. 7 seed in AFC). The Broncos will win their remaining home games and lose their remaining road games to set up a third meeting against the Chiefs in the wild-card round.
