Inside the NHL: A summer look at the Sabres' cap situation, for now and into the future
GM Kevyn Adams banked on locking up his young players and leaving his cap space for each succeeding year as they exited the entry-level deals. This season is a pay-the-piper kind of year for that strategy and the GM's entire program.
Do the Buffalo Sabres have another move left in them this summer?
Did they take Jeff Skinner’s $7.5 million buyout savings for 2024-25 and just pocket it, or are they going to use it? Can they even afford to use it with what is coming down the road? How feasible is it going to be to get another top-six winger here, or are they just banking on the return of a healthy Jack Quinn essentially being a new acquisition?
Even in July, your head can spin when you ask yourself these questions. So, you have to calmly look at the numbers and lay out where the Sabres stand.
According to PuckPedia.com, Buffalo has just over $14.5 million in cap space remaining. That is the sixth-highest figure away from 2024-25’s new cap figure of $88 million. But before you can say Nikolaj Ehlers, it is easy to see where a lot of that money can quickly get soaked up.
One reason the Sabres have to be wary about this year’s salary cap total is that forward Jack Quinn might be looking at a big raise for the 2025-26 season. Harry Scull Jr/Buffalo News
(One thing to note on salary figures: With CapFriendly.com gone from the public sphere, there are going to be vagaries as you compare numbers until one site steps up as a definitive source. To wit, PuckPedia lists Mattias Samuelsson’s $4.285 million cap hit on the Sabres’ roster, but doesn’t list Dennis Gilbert’s $825,000. Meanwhile, CapWages.com includes Gilbert and doesn’t list Samuelsson, instead keeping him on injured reserve where he finished the season after shoulder surgery).
The Sabres are headed to arbitration with goaltender Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen and newly acquired forward Beck Malenstyn, and hearings run through Aug. 4. Luukkonen will be pricy, with contract projection site AFP Analytics putting him at a four-year deal worth $4.7 million per season, and Malenstyn at two years and $1.5M per season.
They also have to figure out a deal with restricted free agent Peyton Krebs, who would probably land in Malenstyn’s range. But it sure feels like something is afoot with Krebs, a player other teams have to feel they can get more out of than the Sabres have.
So it is easy to quickly write off half of that $14.5 million figure just on those three players. Then you can move to general manager Kevyn Adams’ real dilemma here.
Just study Quinn and JJ Peterka. Between the two of them, they are absolute cap bargains, with a combined hit this season of just over $1.7 million in the final year of their entry-level deals.
Peterka is coming off a 28-goal, 50-point season, and is looking at first-line minutes this season. The Sabres have to think a healthy Quinn gets them 25-30 goals this year, as well. As RFAs next year, what is that $1.7 million figure going to be in 2025-26? You have to believe it is going to be $8-10 million. Goalie Devon Levi is at $925,000 this year, and you imagine he would take a jump next year, as well.
“I don’t get overly caught up in ‘Are you spending to the cap, or not,’” Adams said after free agency opened July 1. “You’re putting a roster together to win, and that’s our focus. Obviously, when you look at contracts that are coming into the future, you have to plan, or you can get yourself in a bad spot.
“So, we understand that the first wave of a lot of our core players, we signed those extensions. Some of those are kicking in this upcoming season, and then there’s another group coming. So you’re planning today, but you’re also having to plan out the roster all the time to make sure you’re staying as competitive as you can for the longest amount of time.”
Adams has other issues ahead, too. Bowen Byram is a restricted free agent with arbitration rights next year. He is at $3.85 million, and young defensemen with Stanley Cups on their resume generally don’t come cheap. Henri Jokiharju signed a one-year deal at $3.1 million and is unrestricted next season. And Skinner’s buyout is only going up, as it moves from $1,444,444 this season to $4,444,444 next season and $6,444,444 in 2026-27 before starting to recede.
This is one of the dangers of the Sabres not winning big, or at least making the playoffs, while some of their players were cheap. Rasmus Dahlin is making $13 million this season with an $11 million cap hit. Owen Power’s hit last season was $916,667, and it is $8.3 million this season. Dylan Cozens’ 31 goals and 68 points looked fabulous in 2022-23 when combined with an $894,167 cap hit. Not the same feeling with last season’s 18 goals and 47 points in the first year of his hit jumping to $7.1 million.
It has never been this corner’s view that the Sabres have to spend to the cap to win. Washington has the highest current cap figure at over $98 million, and Philadelphia is No. 3 at $88.8 million and where are either of those two teams going? Do I need to remind you when the Sabres were busting at the cap seams by paying Christian Ehrhoff and Ville Leino?
The motto to stand by: Spend the right money, not the most money. Adams banked on locking up his young players and leaving his cap space for each succeeding year as they exited the entry-level deals. This season is a pay-the-piper kind of year for that strategy and the GM’s entire program.
“You can go get other guys and contracts that you may regret, too,” Adams noted. “And then you’re trying to figure out, ‘How do I get out of this?’ That’s what we’re trying to avoid. We’re trying to build this the right way, with discipline, but also we recognize this team needs to win. I understand that.”
Kaleta on Ruff
Spent some time at LECOM Harborcenter last week talking about the Jr. Sabres with Sabres youth hockey ambassador Patrick Kaleta, and couldn’t resist asking him about the return of Lindy Ruff.Kaleta, the Angola native who has played the most games with the Sabres of any Western New Yorker, made his NHL debut on Feb. 22, 2007, with Ruff as his coach – the night of an infamous brawl against the Ottawa Senators. Let’s just say he was pumped when asked about the return of his old coach.
“I love Lindy Ruff. He was my favorite coach that I ever played for, (with) the way he holds people accountable, his style of play,” Kaleta said. “The way I played fell into a category I think Lindy enjoyed watching. To be able to see him come back and kind of finish what he started, I think, is something special.
“Once the guys get a grip on how Lindy does things and the way he does things, hopefully we’re talking about ending that (playoff) drought, and I think Lindy is a great person to do that.”
Stamkos in Smashville
Seeing Steven Stamkos paraded around Nashville in a Predators jersey after his unveiling last week in Music City sure looked odd. Stamkos had been with Tampa Bay ever since being selected first overall in 2008, and he won two Stanley Cups with the team. But the Lightning played hardball with him over his contract, so he signed a four-year, $32 million deal with the Preds on July 1.Tampa Bay’s stance on this one remains hard to figure. It’s your captain, one of the all-time icons of the franchise, and he’s hardly washed up at 34. He had 40 goals and 41 assists last season. But after two straight first-round playoff losses, the Lightning opted to go in a different direction.
Tampa Bay center Steven Stamkos reacts after his goal during the first period of Game 6 of the 2022 Stanley Cup Final against the Colorado. Stamkos will play with Nashville starting this fall after 16 seasons with the Lightning. Phelan Ebenhack, Associated Press
As for the Predators, they were a big winner in free agency by signing Stamkos, former Conn Smythe winner Jonathan Marchessault of Vegas and former Carolina defenseman Brady Skjei. They also re-signed goalie Juuse Saros to an eight-year deal on a roster that already included forwards Filip Forsberg and Ryan O’Reilly, as well as Norris Trophy finalist Roman Josi.
“You look at elite goaltending, you look at elite defensemen, you look at elite forwards, they check those boxes off,” Stamkos said of his new team. “Then, the excitement of free agency and adding the players that were added here, not only for their skill set on the ice, but the character they bring into the room, the experience they have of winning Stanley Cups or going far in the playoffs, you can never have enough of those guys, as well. The expectation will be to make the playoffs and go on a run.”
Team Canada names Ratzlaff
Sabres prospect Scott Ratzlaff was one of five goaltenders named last week by Team Canada to its roster for the World Junior Summer Showcase.Seattle Thunderbirds goalie Scott Ratzlaff played 52 games, the fourth-highest total among WHL goalies, and he finished with a .905 save percentage. The Thunderbirds gave him the crease in 32 of 36 games after he returned from world juniors in January.
Ratzlaff, taken in the fifth round in 2023 out of Seattle in the Western Hockey League, made the Team Canada roster for last year’s tournament, but did not appear in a game.
Team USA announced its roster last month, and it included Clarence Center native and Boston University defenseman Gavin McCarthy, taken by the Sabres in the third round last year, and Brodie Ziemer, the third-rounder grabbed this year after captaining the US National Development Team program.
Team USA also includes Hamburg native Quentin Musty, the San Jose Sharks’ first-round pick last season. The Showcase is in Plymouth, Michigan, from July 26-Aug. 3, and this year’s World Juniors are in Ottawa, Ontario, from Dec. 26-Jan. 5.
Around the boards
• The Rochester Amerks career of new coach Michael Leone starts Oct. 11, in Blue Cross Arena against Belleville, as the AHL recently announced the league schedule. Two-time Calder Cup champion Hershey makes its lone appearance in Rochester on Nov. 22. The season ends April 18-19 with a home-and-home set against Toronto that finishes in the Marlies’ Coca-Cola Coliseum.• In news first reported by Sportsnet’s Eric Francis, the Calgary Flames are expected to have a “sod turning event” Monday to mark the start of their new $926 million event center. The 18,000-seat arena will include a community rink, as well as indoor and outdoor event plazas. It will be built two blocks from the Saddledome and is tentatively slated to open in 2027. The Saddledome, built for the 1988 Winter Olympics and notorious to NHL reporters for the catwalk required to access the press box in the rafters, is the second-oldest arena in the NHL behind Madison Square Garden. But the New York Rangers’ home was fully renovated in the 2010s with a $1 billion makeover and is essentially a new facility.
• The Penguins have named Coca-Cola as the new drink sponsor in PPG Paints Arena, ending a partnership with the Dr. Pepper Snapple Group that dated to the arena’s 2010 opening. The last three years, they were the only team in the league serving RC Cola as their primary soft drink. From this view, RC must be an acquired taste. I’ve stuck with water for years on trips to what’s an otherwise spectacular rink.