Jim Kubiak: Josh Allen didn't always take what the Patriots gave him, because of two reasons. Take a look
"I do believe the Buffalo Bills will be a better team for having suffered this embarrassing 23-20 loss to the New England Patriots," Jim Kubiak writes.
The stage was set.
The Buffalo Bills had a “white out” theme for fans, and Stefon Diggs was returning to Highmark Stadium with the New England Patriots. They wanted nothing more than to dethrone the reigning MVP, Josh Allen, and AFC East champions. Clearly, the emotional charge on Sunday night was extremely high in this matchup, both for professional and personal reasons, and the team that was best able to use those emotions to their advantage was the Patriots.
Josh Allen completed 22 of 31 attempts for 253 yards, and he threw two touchdown passes, but in Buffalo's 23-20 loss, the damage to the Bills' offensive game plan evolved in two forms: penalties and turnovers. The Bills’ offense was penalized five times on three possessions in the first quarter alone. To make matters worse, they also lost two fumbles.
The first was a fumble by Allen on a botched jet sweep, and the second was committed by Keon Coleman. The penalties negated momentum and continuously robbed the Bills of positive plays, while the turnovers transferred momentum to New England. The Bills had nine offensive drives in the game, and their three total turnovers eliminated one-third of their possessions, giving New England more opportunities. And the Patriots cashed in.
Buffalo Bills quarterback Josh Allen (17) walks off the field after the Bills’ 23-20 loss to the New England Patriots at Highmark Stadium in Orchard Park, Sunday, Oct. 5, 2025.
Harry Scull Jr./Buffalo News
FIRST QUARTER
Play selection: 12 plays (seven passes, five runs)Allen: 5 for 7 passing, 61 yards; two carries for 3 yards, 1 fumble
Performance grade: 91%
Score: Patriots, 3-0.
The game began with New England punting after just four offensive plays. The Bills started their first drive with a penalty on the very first play when center Connor McGovern was called for holding. This moved the ball back to the Bills’ 7-yard line. Allen made this amazing play on first-and-17 to dig the Bills out of an early self-inflicted hole.
1. Josh Allen runs, then throws on first-and-17
Here, the Patriots’ four-man defensive pressure was powerful and upfield, right into Allen’s lap. Allen saw an opening to his left and made it look like he was going to run. Pats linebacker Christian Elliss stepped up and Allen threw it to Dalton Kincaid immediately behind him. This was an extraordinary reaction and accuracy with an amazing off-balance throw to Kincaid, who recognized the opening and moved into it. This completion negated the holding penalty and gave the Bills second-and-2.
Five plays later, as the Bills’ offense started to hum, Allen and Dawson Knox fumbled on a poor handoff exchange as they attempted to execute a jet-sweep to the right.
2. Josh Allen fumble on a handoff exchange to Dawson Knox
The play-call itself by offensive coordinator Joe Brady was a sound one, as the Bills had edge blockers and were (by design) not blocking the Patriots’ defensive linemen. The jet sweep happens so quickly that even unblocked linemen cannot tackle the ball carrier when this play is executed properly from under center.
The Bills’ offense has grown accustomed to using these types of jet sweeps with different personnel, but usually with receivers like Josh Palmer. In this case, Brady must have felt that using Knox in this role would establish an element of surprise.
On this play, Allen’s job was to time the motion perfectly so that he reverse pivoted from center and handed the ball off when the ball carrier was past the center. This can be tricky, and if the quarterback is late on the exchange, the speed of the play increases the chance of a mishap if the exchange isn’t perfect.
The operational difficulty is high for a play like this, but Allen and the Bills have done a solid job in the first four games with these designs.
From an analysis standpoint, the unusual aspect was to use Knox in this way and his reaction to keep running without the ball. It was almost as if he didn’t know he was supposed to have the ball.
The Patriots’ defense did nothing to force the turnover. This was all on the failed execution between Allen and Knox. The ball fell onto the ground, and Davon Godchaux recovered the fumble. This opening drive by the Bills’ offense totaled six plays for 33 yards and consumed 3:57 in game time of possession. They had overcome the early penalty but hurt themselves again with poor execution.
The Bills’ defense answered with an immediate takeaway on the very next play. Shaq Thompson stripped Rhamondre Stevenson and the Bills’ offense was back in business, as if their fumble hadn’t happened.
Allen and the Bills’ offense began this next drive from their own 38-yard line. As they crossed into New England territory, they were called for an illegal formation on second-and-5 on a play in which Ty Johnson gained a first down and made it to the New England 27-yard line. The penalty – illegal formation for not having seven players on the line of scrimmage – made it second-and-10 from the New England 42-yard line. This misalignment appeared to be on Palmer, who was not on the line of scrimmage to Allen’s right.
The result cost the Bills’ offense 15 yards and a potential field goal, going backward from the Patriots' 27-yard line to the 42-yard line. This was another penalty based on poor execution that sapped the Bills’ momentum.
Allen, perhaps beginning to press due to the slow start, threw the ball to Coleman on two consecutive plays. Both were incomplete and the Bills’ offense was forced to punt.
Trying to force the big play
On Allen’s third-and-10 decision to throw it to Coleman, Allen tried to make the big play rather than take what was given. This was a theme that revealed itself time and again. The Patriots were in Cover 1, man-to-man with one high safety. Quarterbacks have the green light to take advantage of an inside-fade pattern like the one Coleman ran. They are typically lower-percentage throws compared to the 5-yard stick route that was run by Kincaid. Allen chose a much more difficult throw and the play was broken up by Marcus Jones.Had Allen just taken the low-hanging fruit and made the simple completion to Kincaid, he may have had a first down, or the Bills may have had an opportunity to go for it on fourth-and-short. Ultimately, they may have had the chance to kick a field goal and taken an early lead. But this impulsive reaction to attack vertically rather than horizontally was a decision by Allen that cost the Bills points on this drive.
The Bills punted, as they were just out of field-goal range.
On the Bills’ next offensive series, which began on the Buffalo 14-yard line, Kincaid was called for holding as he grabbed cornerback Carlton Davis III on another jet sweep. This penalty set the Bills back to their own 7-yard line, where things went from bad to worse. On the next play, Coleman was stripped and fumbled after catching a short completion. He tried to turn into the middle of the field for more yardage and in doing so lost the ball.
This was the second turnover for the Bills in the quarter – but this one gave the Patriots possession deep inside Bills territory.
3. Keon Coleman's fumble deep in Bills territory vs. Patriots
Here, on first-and-17, with two minutes remaining in the first quarter, Allen made a smart decision to throw to Coleman on a snag route. The Patriots played zone. Watch as Khalil Shakir goes in motion and Allen “alerts” to this play. Allen diagnoses that the Patriots are in zone defense because no defender followed Shakir. Then he decisively goes to Coleman, who is open between defenders.
As Coleman turns to the open field, linebacker Robert Spillane punches the ball out.
This was more of a mishap by Coleman rather than an amazing play by Spillane, but nonetheless the result was another turnover and a first-and-goal for the Patriots on the Buffalo 10-yard line.
Look at all the room Coleman would've had to run if he had maintained possession of the football and been able to shed the tackler.
The Bills’ defense again held on three consecutive plays and forced New England to kick a 30-yard field goal. This gave the Patriots an early lead, 3-0.
Allen’s deviation from the overall mindset to take what the defense was giving became more apparent as the game wore on. Overcoming the penalties and turnovers shifted this focus from a routine offensive operational tempo into an emergency mode, in which Allen was reaching for more to make up for mistakes and mishaps.
SECOND QUARTER
Play selection: 13 plays (four passes, nine runs)Allen: 4 for 4 passing, 39 yards, 0 touchdown. 2 carries for 29 yards.
Performance grade: 85%
Score: Patriots, 6-3.
Allen responded on the next drive with an 11-play field-goal drive. Again, he overcame another penalty at the very end of the first quarter. This one was a false start on left tackle Dion Dawkins, who was leaning forward as Allen was alerting to another play. As the second quarter got underway, the Bills found themselves in a second-and-12. Allen threw a strike to Kincaid for the conversion. Then, nine plays later, Allen and the Bills’ offense found themselves trying to convert this third-and-3 from the New England 10-yard line.
4. A dangerous Josh Allen designed run on third-and-3
This was a designed quarterback run for Allen that was dressed up as a jet-sweep to hold the backside linebacker, Harold Landry III. Landry was not influenced by the motion and crashed hard directly toward Allen, who was supposed to follow his pulling right tackle, Spencer Brown. Look at the angle Landry takes toward Allen as he heads into the hole. Landry actually cuts off Allen, who has no chance but to try to get back to the line of scrimmage or take a loss.
Allen could have made this bad play worse by ad-libbing and flipping the ball to Shakir, who was clearly not ready for it. This was not a designed run-pass option, yet Allen, in his desperation, tried to be heroic rather than taking the field goal. The Bills were lucky here, in my opinion, as this was unnecessarily reckless. The Bills were penalized twice for an ineligible man downfield, with McGovern blocking the linebacker, and offensive pass interference called on Coleman, who was blocking when the ball was thrown. Shakir was engulfed and lost 3 yards.
This was the type of play in which injuries can occur when players are unexpectedly put in harm's way outside of the system. The Bills were fortunate that Shakir and Allen for that matter were unharmed. The Patriots declined both penalties, and Buffalo ultimately kicked the tying field goal, making the score 3-3.
This was not a wise play-call by Brady, who was essentially betting that the unblocked player, Landry, would bite on the fake jet sweep. Allen didn’t have any other options than to run forward and be tackled.
The Bills’ defense again forced a Patriots’ punt on the next series and the Bills’ offense had an opportunity to take their first lead of the game with 6:24 remaining in the first half.
This was the Bills’ fifth and final offensive possession of the half. They went six plays and possessed the ball for 4:02 before punting.
There were two key plays on this failed drive. First, following a 17-yard scramble by Allen, the Bills were on their own 32-yard line. On the next play, James Cook rambled around the end to the 39-yard line, but that play was negated by another McGovern holding penalty. This penalty cost the Bills’ offense 16 yards, taking them from the 39 to the 22-yard line.
Again, the feeling that the Bills just couldn’t get out of their own way affected Allen. Instead of taking what was given, he felt the need to take matters into his own hands. He scrambled again rather than throwing the easy completion.
The Patriots’ defense gave Allen plenty of low-hanging fruit before he decided to scramble. Had he simply thrown the ball to Palmer in the middle, he would have had a similar gain. But Allen, in emergency mode, felt the need to do it himself. Credit the Patriots' four-man pass rush – and the fact that the defense originally looked like man-to-man before they played Cover 2 zone. The pass rush caused Allen to shuffle left and look at the rush. He was not able to get his eyes back downfield, and instead, he took off.
Cook had a short 3-yard gain on the next play, and the Bills’ offense found themselves in third-and-7.
5. Josh Allen takes a sack on third-and-7
The Patriots fooled Allen here. They came with a 4-weak blitz to Allen’s right, then they played man-to-man coverage to the blitz side and a Cover 3 zone to his left. This split-field coverage initially had Allen thinking it was zone coverage all the way across the field. He was surprised as he dropped that there was a blitzing free rusher to his right.
Still, the Patriots dared him to throw underneath the coverage to take the shorter completion. Allen passed up a wide-open completion in the middle of the field to Shakir, who would have caught the ball at about the 40-yard line. The Bills needed to get to the 42-yard line for that first down, and the shorter completion may not have reached. He tried to run right but was trapped with nowhere to go.
The sack put an exclamation point on everything that the Patriots had managed to accomplish in the first half – primarily to create doubt, disrupt and damage the Bills’ confidence.
The sack, rather than the shorter completion, meant the Bills punted from their own 26-yard line instead of their own 40. The ensuing punt gave the Patriots field position on their 32-yard line instead of deeper field position.
These little things were mounting as the Bills struggled.
The Patriots took their final possession of this first half on an impressive 11-play field-goal drive. This drive hurt as they were able to capture the lead as well as drain nearly all of the game clock. This prevented the Bills from being able to double-dip – that is, to score before halftime and then again on the opening drive of the third quarter.
Summarily, the Bills in the first half had run 26 offensive plays to New England’s 31, and they'd been penalized (and accepted) eight times for 65 yards, while the Patriots had been penalized two times for 20 yards.
The penalties, turnovers and poor field position had crippled Allen and the Bills’ high powered attack.
Yet despite the self-inflicted adversities, Allen kept the Bills in the game with superior efficiency. Somehow he completed 9 of 11 attempts for 100 yards and had 4 rushes for 32 yards.
THIRD QUARTER
Play selection: 17 plays (11 passes, six runs)Allen: 8 for 11 passing, 82 yards, 1 TD, 1 INT; one carry for 3 yards
Performance grade: 88%
Score: Patriots, 20-10.
The Bills received the opening kickoff of the third quarter and began firing on all cylinders. Allen marched the offense 71 yards on 10 plays and gobbled up 5:32 of game clock in the process.
He threw his first touchdown pass of the game on this well-designed second-and-goal play from the 6-yard line.
6. Josh Allen's first TD pass to Curtis Samuel vs. Patriots
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Here, the fancy motion by Brady with Curtis Samuel caused Pats safety Jaylinn Hawkins to pick up Samuel as he motioned to Allen’s left. Samuel looked like he was going to circle back around Allen to the other side. This is when Hawkins lost track of Samuel for a moment. The hesitation was enough time for Allen to quickly throw the ball to Samuel for an uncontested touchdown pass.
This was superb motion by Samuel and a nice concept by Brady, expecting man-to-man, anticipating the safeties passing off responsibility, and then manipulating the situation with motion to get Allen an easy throw. This gave the Bills into their first lead of the game, 10-6.
New England answered with a five-play touchdown drive that took only 2:40 and went down the field a total of 74 yards.
With the Patriots back in the lead, 13-10, Allen and the Bills’ offense had another chance to change things.
Allen took the Bills’ offense for seven plays and 52 yards before the Bills were again called for offensive pass interference, this time on Shakir during a receiver bubble screen.
On second-and-3 from the Patriots' 9-yard line, Allen threw the bubble to Kincaid as quickly as possible. Shakir technically could not block or impede a defender until after the ball is touched – but he was engaged before the catch. This may be a design flaw in a concept like this versus press coverage, but the Bills have gotten away with it up to this point in the season. Kincaid made it to the 7-yard line, and this would have been a third-and-1. Instead, because of the penalty, the Bills’ offense was facing second-and-13 from the 19-yard line.
This is when Allen made a crucial mistake.
7. Josh Allen's interception vs. Marcus Jones
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Here, New England matched the post route with a backside safety, Craig Woodson (31), and they double-teamed Shakir with Marcus Jones and Hawkins. This seemed to cause Allen to hold the football longer than he wanted as he tried to decipher the coverage. Both cornerbacks pressed and played man-to-man, but the safeties appeared to initially play zone until they matched late into man coverage. The double-team on Shakir meant that Jones had outside leverage and Hawkins had inside leverage.
When Allen threw the ball, he was a tad late and behind Shakir. This allowed time for Jones to drive under the throw.
Jones made a great play undercutting Allen’s throw, and this interception marked the Bills' third turnover of the game.
This was a time in the game in which Allen needed to protect the football and preserve points. But again, the penalty set the team back, and Allen pressed. Had the Bills been able to get a field goal, may have changed the outcome. The score would have been tied 13-13 – but instead, the Patriots had a chance to take a two-score lead.
They made the Bills pay for the turnover with an 11-play touchdown drive that covered 90 yards in 5:43.
This drive concluded early in the fourth quarter, putting the Bills behind 20-10.
To this point in the game, at the end of the third quarter, three of Buffalo's seven possessions had ended in a turnover. Those are nearly impossible circumstances to overcome.
FOURTH QUARTER
Play selection: 19 plays (11 passes, eight runs)Allen: 7 for 11 passing, 71 yards, TD; four carries for 35 yards
Performance grade: 89%
Score: Patriots, 23-20
Allen and the Bills felt their opportunity to remain undefeated slipping away. They answered in a big way, with a much-needed eight-play, 74-yard touchdown drive. They were helped by back-to-back 15-yard penalties on the Patriots. One was roughing the passer, the other unnecessary roughness. Allen capped the drive with this touchdown pass to Coleman.
8. Josh Allen's second TD pass vs. Patriots, to Keon Coleman
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Here, on first-and-goal from the 3-yard line, the Patriots busted their coverage. Both Jones inside and Davis III outside reacted to Samuel in the flat, as they failed to match properly. Allen immediately took advantage with a quick and accurate throw to Coleman. This reduced the Patriot lead 20-17, with 7:37 remaining to play.
The Bills’ defense quickly forced a punt, giving Allen and the Bills offense one last chance.
The offensive thinking in this situation was that a Bills touchdown would have given them a 24-20 lead with a successful extra point. A field goal would tie the game 20-20. Both situations required the defense to come up with a stop if enough time remained.
Allen and the Bills’ offense ripped off a 10-play drive that began with 5:52 remaining in the fourth quarter.
The drive stalled on the 27-yard line when Shakir dropped a receiver screen pass on first-and-10. This set the stage for two more incompletions.
This next play, second-and-10, was an all-vertical concept in which the Patriots matched with two-deep coverage.
One of the most important things to remember as a quarterback, with two high safeties against four verticals, is where the checkdown player is. When the defense bails and covers deep, the place to attack is underneath. Here, Allen clearly saw Cook open but didn’t throw it to him. It is my opinion that, like many of the four-vertical concepts the Bills run, Allen looked to create rather than take what is given.
Cook was wide open.
Allen’s creation didn’t work this time. As he scrambled right, the long, desperate throw into the end zone was caught by Coleman out of bounds.
On third-and-10, the next play, the Patriots played a Cover 3 zone trying to keep everything in front of them and not give up a big play. Allen left the pocket very early and definitely before he needed to, rolling right. Had he stayed in the pocket, Allen had the post and both of the mesh concept routes open.
Rather than take those completions, Allen was in big-play creation mode.
This play was significant on several levels. First, Allen was looking for a touchdown instead of throwing to open receivers underneath. Second, after he left the pocket, two penalties were overlooked that may have changed the outcome.
9. No penalties against the Patriots on third-and-3
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After Allen left the pocket trying to create, things did materialize. In the video, you see Allen throw to Shakir, who is hit before the pass arrives.
Sure, this was a bang-bang play, but without question the defender, Christian Gonzalez, made contact before the football arrived. That is pass interference.
Also on this play, Allen took a hit to the head by Anfernee Jennings. That, too, should have been a penalty.
The Bills kicked the game tying field goal with 2:21 to play, 20-20. The Patriots countered with their own spectacular drive, which covered 37 yards in seven plays. Most importantly, they had drained all but 15 seconds from the clock while kicking the game-winning field goal.
Conclusion
The fact is, teams with a minus-2 turnover differential in an NFL games have about a 15-20% chance of winning. Additionally, teams that incur more penalties and penalty yards further reduce their chances of victory. The Bills' self-inflicted misfortunes in this game greatly reduced their chances, despite the home-field advantage, the white-out and Allen’s efficiency.The combination of these negative factors did hinder Allen’s mindset, which is a lesson for him going forward: Trust the process. There were times when Allen could have just made the routine play that would have benefited the Bills more than trying to make the sensational play. To borrow a baseball analogy , he was trying to hit home runs rather than simply making contact. We know that doesn’t usually work.
I do believe the Bills will be a better team for having had this embarrassing experience. They've been so good at protecting the football that perhaps they forgot how important it is. Not even an MVP-caliber player like Allen can make up for the mistakes the Bills made in this game. Going forward, coach Sean McDermott needs to continue to improve this team’s readiness. This was the second consecutive week the Bills underperformed. There isn’t any excuse for it in professional football. The good news is, the Bills do have players that care deeply about their mission and the formula that will be necessary to take them there.
This team in general, and Allen specifically, must trust the process and make use of the formula. They have an opportunity on Monday night to redeem themselves. I would be very surprised, and perhaps disappointed, if they didn’t come out swinging against the Atlanta Falcons.
Overall QB Performance Grade: 88%
Passing: 22 of 31 (71%), 253 yards, 2 TDs, 1 INTRushing: Nine rushes, 53 yards, 0 TDs, 1 fumble