Let's start this right now! Bills host Ratbirds!

Margin of victory or defeat

  • Bills 1-4

    Votes: 2 22.2%

  • Bills 5-10

    Votes: 5 55.6%

  • Bills 10-21

    Votes: 1 11.1%

  • Bills 21+

    Votes: 0 0.0%

  • Ravens 1-4

    Votes: 0 0.0%

  • Ravens 5-10

    Votes: 1 11.1%

  • Ravens 10+

    Votes: 0 0.0%
  • Total voters
    9
  • Poll closed .
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One way the Bills, Commanders and other NFL underdogs win this weekend — and how the favorites stop them

What each underdog can do to win this weekend, plus how the Lions, Chiefs, Ravens and Eagles can stop them
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No. 3 Ravens (-1) at No. 2 Bills​

  • Sunday at 6:30 p.m. (CBS)
  • Tickets from $190
How Buffalo can win: … Wait, the Bills are home underdogs? That hasn’t happened since the 2020 season, when Miami was favored in a must-win Week 17 game. (Despite the Bills resting starters in the second half, they won 56-26.)

This weekend, Buffalo needs to slow Lamar Jackson and Derrick Henry, which makes linebackers Matt Milano and Terrel Bernard especially key. Since Milano returned in Week 13, the Bills field the league’s 10th-best rush defense by EPA per snap — tied with Baltimore, in fact.

Key stat: The Bills were missing seven defensive starters — including Milano, Bernard and nickel corner Taron Johnson — during their Week 4 loss to the Ravens, when Derrick Henry had 199 rush yards.

The Baltimore counterpunch: Run, and stop the run. After shifting Kyle Hamilton to free safety full-time around Week 10, Baltimore’s pass defense is no longer a glaring weakness (they rank second in pass EPA since). And with the weather likely to be dreadful — temperatures below freezing, with snow expected — the final score should end in favor of whoever wins the ground game.

Watch Buffalo’s run game: The Bills have led all playoff teams in EPA per rush since November began (and the weather turned). Josh Allen ran just five times against a then-weaker Ravens pass defense in what was his worst game of the season. It didn’t help that James Cook, who averaged 7.6 yards per carry in their snow game against the 49ers earlier this year, saw just nine carries for 39 yards in the loss to Baltimore.
 
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Ryan O'Halloran: Exhale, Buffalo Bills fans: another major step taken in win over Ravens

"Every playoff win is a relief because of the competition (the Ravens are really good), the stakes (a loss, and the soul-searching is immediate) and the reward (the Bills are one of four NFL teams remaining)," Ryan O'Halloran writes.
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His team had just survived a Baltimore Ravens comeback attempt, so the emotions and adrenaline had to still be coursing through Buffalo Bills coach Sean McDermott’s veins when he entered the postgame press conference room late Sunday night.

As McDermott plopped down in a chair, he delivered an audible sigh.

Nobody should blame him. Admit it: As you turned off the television or drove home from Highmark Stadium, you had the same feelings.

Deep breath. The Bills escaped with a 27-25 AFC divisional-round win despite not scoring a second-half touchdown.

Exhale. The Bills won’t go into the offseason with the stench of blowing an 11-point lead on their home field and a fourth consecutive second-round exit.

Sigh. The Bills were headed for overtime until Ravens tight end Mark Andrews completed his forgettable game by dropping Lamar Jackson’s two-point pass with 1:33 remaining.

Still wondering why McDermott needed to catch his breath?

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Bills coach Sean McDermott likes what he sees during the second quarter of the AFC divisional playoff game against the Baltimore Ravens on Sunday in Orchard Park.
Harry Scull Jr./Buffalo News

Just about every playoff game is part joyride, part root canal, full of thrilling highs and frustrating lows. And this 2-hour, 54-minute fistfight was just another example.
The Bills were in control … until they weren’t. The Ravens appeared to have the momentum … until they didn’t.

“Just a sense of relief, a sense of excitement and a sense of celebration,” tight end Dawson Knox told me after the Bills advanced to their first AFC championship game since the 2020 season. “But we know the work isn’t done.”

The work isn’t done, and that’s why the Bills’ locker room was a hopping place to be. They get to keep playing. They get to keep working and preparing together. They get to keep on keeping on.

Everything remains attainable and possible. The Bills have eliminated the Ravens and Jackson, who could be on his way to winning a third NFL MVP. What an accomplishment for this group in what was supposed to be a reset/transition year. They are now one win away from reaching the Super Bowl for the first time in 31 years, and those darn Kansas City Chiefs are again in their way.

“Not bad for some underdogs with no first-team All Pro players, right?” Knox said.
Not bad, indeed.

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Bills quarterback Josh Allen greets Baltimore Ravens quarterback Lamar Jackson after their game Sunday at Highmark Stadium.
Joshua Bessex/Buffalo News

The Ravens dominated the Pro Bowl (nine players) and first-team All Pro selections (three). The Bills had two Pro Bowlers (quarterback Josh Allen and left tackle Dion Dawkins) and one second-team All-Pro (Allen).

But as we discovered months ago, the Bills’ sum is greater than these individual parts. Three players created takeaways. Eight players caught at least one pass. Four players had at least four rushing attempts. The strength of a team is when everybody – from man No. 1 to man No. 53 (and beyond) – feels important, feels like his work is appreciated and valued. This group does, and they rally around Allen, the organization’s reassuring compass.

I asked Allen about that locker room. Excitement? Relief? Other things?

“It’s a lot of everything,” he said. “We’re excited. (There is) a lot of pride in there.”

And with that, Allen dove into one of the week’s simmering subplots. The Bills were a home playoff underdog for the first time since Jan. 1, 1967; the Ravens closed as a 1-point favorite.

“We don’t listen to the outside noise,” Allen said.
But then he basically said the Bills did.

“Everyone was saying this and that about us: didn’t have enough talent; weren’t good enough to be in these positions,” Allen said. “Our guys continued to work hard and were internally driven.”

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Bills cornerback Taron Johnson tackles Baltimore Ravens quarterback Lamar Jackson during the third quarter of Sunday's playoff game at Highmark Stadium.
Joshua Bessex/Buffalo News
So was the Bills’ underdog status a talking point?

“It wasn’t really talked about, but it was the back of everybody’s minds, too,” Knox said.

Said center Connor McGovern: “We know who we are as a team. If people don’t realize, then we’ve made them look deeper into that now.”

A deep look isn’t required to figure out why the Bills beat Baltimore. The Bills were plus-3 in turnover differential. They made mistakes, obviously, but they didn’t make crippling errors like the Ravens did with giveaways, dropped passes and penalties.

The Bills rolled into halftime up 21-10. Score a touchdown to start the third quarter, and we could have all started making our travel arrangements to Kansas City. But then the offense got bogged down and the Ravens’ run game got cranked up. Somebody needed to make a play.

Kicker Tyler Bass made a 51-yard field goal. Linebacker Terrel Bernard forced Andrews to fumble. Allen converted a third-and-1 that helped bleed the clock. Bass made a 21-yard field goal. And cornerback Rasul Douglas recovered the onside kick. That was all in the fourth quarter.

Every playoff win is a relief because of the competition (the Ravens are really good), the stakes (a loss, and the soul-searching is immediate) and the reward (the Bills are one of four NFL teams remaining).

“We’re happy and proud that we did enough to win,” left guard David Edwards said. “But we know this isn’t the end. We have to keep going. This is another check mark on the road to New Orleans.”

One check mark to go.
 

FINAL: Buffalo Bills hold on for 27-25 win over Baltimore Ravens; up next: Kansas City for AFC title​

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FINAL: Buffalo Bills hold on for 27-25 win over Baltimore Ravens; up next: Kansas City for AFC title

The NFL playoffs continue with the divisional rounds. This week, Lamar Jackson and the Baltimore Ravens visit Highmark Stadium to take on the Buffalo Bills at 6:30 p.m. Sunday in an AFC showdown.
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FINAL​

The Buffalo Bills have held on for a 27-25 win over the Baltimore Ravens. Bring on Kansas City.

The Bills escaped even after giving up a late touchdown pass from Lamar Jackson to Isaiah Likely – but they needed a 2-point conversion to tie the score.

Tight end Mark Andrews was open on a rollout, and Jackson's pass hit Andrews in the breadbasket – but it bounced out of his grasp.
Rasul Douglas recovered the onside kick, and the Bills ran out the clock.

The Bills will face the Kansas City Chiefs at 6:30 p.m. Sunday in Arrowhead Stadium for the AFC championship.

The Bills-Chiefs winner will face the NFC champion, Philadelphia or Washington, in the Super Bowl on Feb. 9 in New Orleans.

Fourth quarter, 3:28 remaining​

Terrel Bernard's punchout and fumble recovery led to a 21-yard field goal by Tyler Bass, giving the Buffalo Bills an eight-point lead, 27-19, over the Baltimore Ravens here in the AFC divisional playoffs at Highmark Stadium.

The Ravens must now drive the length of the field, score a touchdown and add a 2-point conversion to tie the score.
Buckle up.

Fourth quarter, 8:41 remaining​

It's too early to know for sure, of course. But Terrel Bernard may have saved the Buffalo Bills' season.

On a second-and-11, the Baltimore Ravens' rough-and-tumble offense — on a hot streak since halftime, looking to take the lead — notched yet another first down when Lamar Jackson found tight end Mark Andrews wide open on the right hash.

But linebacker Terrel Bernard reached in with his right hand and punched out the ball, launching it from Andrews' grasp. The ball tumbled on the ground toward Bernard, who pounced on it.

The Bills have the ball inside Baltimore territory with a 24-19.

Fourth quarter, 12:04 remaining​

Tyler Bass was on the money.

Bass' 51-yard field goal has bumped the Buffalo Bills' lead to five points, 24-19, over the Baltimore Ravens inside a tense, somewhat quiet Highmark Stadium.

The Bills' offense came alive for the first time in the second half, moving into Baltimore territory mostly on the ground. But back-to-back Josh Allen passes fell incomplete on second and third downs, prompting the Bills to call on Bass.

The Ravens take over with a chance to take the lead.

End of third quarter​

The Baltimore Ravens dominated the Buffalo Bills in the third quarter of their AFC divisional playoff game. Derrick Henry is hot. And the Bills had just one first down on their first nine plays since halftime.

Henry led the way on the Ravens' latest series, scoring on a 5-yard touchdown run with 1:37 remaining in the third quarter. That capped a seven-play, 80-yard drive – and the only good news for Buffalo was that linebacker Matt Milano got his hand on Lamar Jackson's 2-point pass, which fell incomplete, preserving the Bills' lead.

Bills 21, Ravens 19.

Henry had 21 rushing yards in the first half. He has 58 rushing yards in the third quarter.

Third quarter, 9:47 remaining​

The Baltimore Ravens have gotten most of what they needed to start the second half.

The Ravens forced a Buffalo Bills three-and-out to begin the third quarter, then turned to Derrick Henry and the ground game for much of its next series – good enough to get a field-goal, cutting into the Bills' lead.

Bills 21, Ravens 13.

HALFTIME​

Josh Allen jackhammered his way to a 4-yard touchdown with 16 seconds left before halftime, and the crowd at Highmark Stadium might've enjoyed it just a little.

Allen's second rushing touchdown of the night — this time on a shotgun draw and an escort from right guard O'Cyrus Torrence of Greensburg, La. — capped a clock-eating nine-play, 70-yard touchdown drive, giving the Buffalo Bills a 21-10 lead over the Baltimore Ravens at the break.

The Bills got a break on third-and-5 at the Baltimore 30-yard line when Allen threw incomplete down the left sideline to Keon Coleman, who got away with a clear push on the Bills' old friend, cornerback Tre'Davious White. Officials called White for pass interference, giving the Bills a fresh set of downs instead of a field-goal attempt by Tyler Bass.

The Bills have held Derrick Henry to 21 yards rushing.

Buffalo receives the second-half kickoff.


Second quarter, 3:43 remaining​

The Baltimore Ravens went deep and gave themselves a chance to tie the Buffalo Bills, but the Bills defense held firm near the goal line, forcing the Ravens to settle for a 26-yard field goal by Justin Tucker.

The Bills remain in front, 14-10.

Lamar Jackson had taken advantage of sloppy play in the Buffalo secondary, hitting Rashod Bateman on a deep pass behind cornerback Rasul Douglas and safety Damar Hamlin (Douglas was looking into the secondary and lost several steps, and Hamlin, the deep safety, let Bateman get behind him).

But with a first-and-goal at the 1, the Ravens failed to punch it in. Buffalo stopped Derrick Henry on first down, and back-to-back pass attempts failed.

Rookie safety Cole Bishop is in for Taylor Rapp, who suffered an apparent hip injury.
Bills get the ball at the 30-yard line.

Second quarter, 8:52 remaining​

The Buffalo Bills did what they've done all season, and they now have a 14-7 lead over the Baltimore Ravens to show for it.

The Bills cashed in on a turnover when Lamar Jackson dropped the ball after a bad snap and a collision with Damar Hamlin, who got credit for a sack and a forced fumble — and Von Miller was on the spot, picking up the loose ball and struggling his way to the Baltimore 24-yard line.

Josh Allen took it from there, directing a short drive that ended with his 1-yard push into the end zone.
The Bills are now plus-27 in turnover margin this season, easily the best mark in the NFL. This was Jackson's second turnover so far.

Bills 14, Ravens 7.

End of First quarter​

The Buffalo Bills got a Taylor Rapp interception on a badly overthrown ball by Lamar Jackson, but a phantom holding penalty on Bills left tackle Dion Dawkins wound up killing the Bills' ensuing drive. They had to punt, and the Ravens are on the move as the second quarter begins.
Bills 7, Ravens 7.

First quarter, 4:43 remaining​

The street fight is on.

Bills rookie running back Ray Davis powered into the end zone on a 1-yard touchdown to finish an impressive opening drive for Buffalo, tying this AFC divisional playoff with the Ravens, 7-7, inside a rejuvenated Highmark Stadium.

The most explosive moment of the Bills' 11-play, 70-yard series was a 39-yard rip of a throw from Josh Allen to Khalil Shakir — but make no mistake: The Bills committed to the ground. Nine of their 11 plays were on the ground, including a fourth-and-2 conversion by Allen.

Bills 7, Ravens 7.

First quarter, 10:40 remaining​

The Buffalo Bills won the toss and elected to play defense first. The Baltimore Ravens made their first series count.

Lamar Jackson capped an impressive opening drive in this AFC divisional playoff game with a touchdown pass to a wide-open Rashod Bateman on a third-and-3, giving the Ravens a 7-0 lead here in a cold Highmark Stadium that got quiet in a hurry.

The drive went eight plays and 73 yards. Key plays: Jackson scrambled for a first-down on an early third-and-8, then found tight end Isaiah Likely wide open for a 39-yard gain. The Bills had been lucky: On an earlier play, their coverage bust left Derrick Henry by himself on the left sideline, but Henry dropped the pass.

Ravens 7, Bills coming up.

PREGAME​

The NFL playoffs continue with the divisional round. This week, Lamar Jackson and the Baltimore Ravens visit Highmark Stadium to take on the Buffalo Bills at 6:30 p.m. Sunday in an AFC showdown.
 
I read and watched the 1978 MLK miniseries on youtube. Saw the game afterwards. Damn, what a fuggin awesome way to spend a Sunday. If I can get tickets to the AFCCG I'm there. If not, another quiet evening, and if they win, fireworks will be launched by me.
 
herodotus said:
I read and watched the 1978 MLK miniseries on youtube. Saw the game afterwards. Damn, what a fuggin awesome way to spend a Sunday. If I can get tickets to the AFCCG I'm there. If not, another quiet evening, and if they win, fireworks will be launched by me.
Click to expand...

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Briefly,
The offensive line—again, it held up very well under constant attack by a very good Ravens Defensive front.
Allen for staying calm in within the game plan. A few times he could gone the other Josh Allen and tried to ball out
Defense for stifling Henry, for most of the game, for getting after Lamar often and for THREE takeaways!
Bass - 51 yrd'er!
Milano
Epenesa
Oliver
Von Miller!!
Groot
Hamlin made some nice plays
Mafia - stayed at top volume for the entire game!


GOATS
Coaching for going soft after the Half and squandering a "foot on throat" drive - again, and again and again. When will this weak coach learn to STOP letting the other team come back?
Defense - Hi, open receivers in the slot - again, and again, and again. Our coverage is just not good.
Putting Cook in when he was obviously NOT the best back on the roster last night.
Fuck the REFS - again. FOUR blatant fouls not called, one ghost holding that were drive killers. Next week will be worse and will affect the outcome of the game
 
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Report Card: Run game, special teams come through for Bills in narrow win over Ravens​

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Report Card: Run game, special teams come through for Bills in narrow win over Ravens

Here are Jay Skurski's grades for the Buffalo Bills in their 27-25 victory over the Baltimore Ravens on Sunday in an AFC divisional round playoff game.
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Grading the Buffalo Bills in their 27-25 victory over the Baltimore Ravens on Sunday in an AFC divisional-round playoff game at Highmark Stadium …

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Bills running back Ty Johnson was part of a strong rushing attack Sunday against the Ravens. Harry Scull Jr., Buffalo News

Running game: A​

So much for that No. 1-ranked Ravens run defense. The Bills committed to the run in a big way (some would say too much; more on that later), piling up 147 yards on 36 carries. James Cook had 67 yards on 17 carries, and Ty Johnson added 31 on five carries. Ray Davis had just four carries but produced 29 yards and a 1-yard score. Quarterback Josh Allen ran 10 times for just 20 yards, but he did score a pair of touchdowns on the ground. In consecutive weeks, the Bills have played against the Nos. 1 and 2 run defenses in the NFL, and they moved the ball well against both of them.

Passing game: C-​

Few could have predicted the Bills would win a playoff game in which Allen managed just 127 yards passing (he completed 16 of 22 passes). Khalil Shakir was the only receiver who did much of anything through the air, finishing with six catches for 67 yards on seven targets. No other Bills receiver had more than 15 receiving yards, and that was from Cook. Amari Cooper was a non-factor, targeted just once and failing to make a catch. Keon Coleman’s only catch went for 5 yards, although he did draw a questionable pass interference penalty against old friend Tre’Davious White. Dalton Kincaid (two targets, one catch for 11 yards) and Dawson Knox (two targets, one catch for 0 yards) didn't produce much. The Bills will likely need to get much more out of the passing game moving forward if they want to advance. Curtis Samuel had two catches for 9 yards, but one of those produced a key first down.

Run defense: C​

Hey, a “C” is average, and against the Ravens, that’s a win. Baltimore did pile up 176 rushing yards on 30 carries, an average of 5.9 per attempt, but the Bills didn’t let Derrick Henry and Lamar Jackson wipe them out. Henry finished with 84 yards on 16 carries and one touchdown, which came on a 5-yard run in the third quarter. That was his best drive of the game. Jackson, meanwhile, ran for 39 yards on six attempts. He hurt the Bills with a few scrambles, but that's nearly inevitable. Justice Hill ran just six times for 50 yards. The Ravens maybe should have given him the ball a couple more times based on how he was running. A.J. Epenesa had a pair of tackles for loss in the win.

Pass defense: B-​

All three of the Bills’ takeaways came in defending the pass. First was Taylor Rapp’s interception. Next was Damar Hamlin’s forced fumble, which Von Miller recovered. Last was Terrel Bernard’s strip of Mark Andrews. The Bills sacked Jackson twice, with Greg Rousseau and Hamlin getting to him, and they hit him five times, including three by linebacker Matt Milano. The Bills’ secondary knocked down just two passes, so they have areas to clean up. The Ravens definitely missed No. 1 receiver Zay Flowers, who missed the game with a knee injury.

Special teams: A-​

The Bills needed Tyler Bass to come through, and he did in a big way. After thee successful extra points in the first half, Bass accounted for all of the Bills’ scoring in the second half. Those six points came on field goals of 51 and 21 yards, both in the fourth quarter. The Ravens did not punt, becoming just the fourth team in NFL playoff history to do so, joining the St. Louis Cardinals in 1983 against Green Bay, Kansas City against Indianapolis in 2004 and New England in the Super Bowl against Philadelphia in 2018. Ray Davis returned one kickoff for 25 yards. Bass recorded just one touchback on six kickoffs. Ravens kick returner Keaton Mitchell returned five kicks for 134 yards – an average of 26.8 per return. Baltimore punt returner Steven Sims returned one punt for 16 yards, as Mack Hollins couldn’t quite bring him down. Sam Martin also had a punt go into the end zone. Martin averaged 38.0 net yards on three punts.

Coaching: B+​

The Bills had fallen short in this round of the playoffs the past three seasons – including the last two at home. Sean McDermott cleared a major hurdle. No, it was not perfect. The offensive game plan felt overly conservative at times, and coordinator Joe Brady would have come under scrutiny had the Bills not found a way. Winning cures all, however, and the Bills are moving on. They played a clean game. McDermott had no clock-management issues. The biggest coaching question likely had to do with his decision to kick a field goal on fourth-and-goal from the Ravens’ 3-yard line with 3:29 remaining. The kick extended Buffalo’s lead to eight, and although the Ravens did drive for a touchdown, they weren’t able to get the necessary two-point conversion to tie the game. Had the Bills gone for the touchdown and come up empty, the Ravens could have taken the lead in regulation. Obviously, there is no way to know what would have happened had the Bills gone for broke – but in the moment, I agreed with McDermott’s decision to take the points. It ended up working out.
 

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FULL BOX SCORE
  1. Turnovers, two-point tries were the difference. The Ravens controlled long stretches of this game, including a statement drive in the second half that cut the Bills’ lead to 21-19, during which Baltimore’s run game seemed to wear Buffalo down. The tides appeared to be shifting at that point. But veteran tight end Mark Andrews' fumble -- his first since 2019 -- was a gutting blow midway through the fourth quarter with a chance to take the lead. The Bills tacked on a field goal, with the Ravens defense doing its job, giving the ball back to Lamar Jackson and the offense in an eight-point game. Jackson responded with a clutch drive, capping it with a brilliant TD throw to Isaiah Likely. But Andrews made another uncharacteristic mistake, dropping the gift-wrapped two-point try -- their second such miss of the game, costing them four points in a two-point loss. Pair that with Jackson’s two turnovers, and it’s no shock why the Ravens came up just short.

  2. Bills’ conservative offensive game plan effective but open to questioning. After falling behind 7-0, the Bills responded well with their own TD drive, marching 70 yards on 11 plays and putting the Ravens back on their heels. But there were very few shot plays for the Bills on the day, preferring to lean on Josh Allen -- with his legs and in the short passing game -- plus James Cook and the backs. Some of that likely was to rest a taxed Bills defense that was aggressive early but started running out of steam late. As effective as Allen was at converting first downs and running clock, their two long drives in the fourth quarter only netted six points. On fourth-and-goal from the Baltimore 2-yard line with three-plus minutes left, Bills head coach Sean McDermott opted to kick a field goal, keeping it a one-possession game. Both approaches almost cost the Bills a spot in the AFC Championship Game next Sunday in Kansas City. The Bills got it done, but it required a horrific drop to avoid an overtime against a Ravens team that was starting to lean on them.

  3. Bills' linebackers step up. The Bills defense nearly bent too much at game’s end, but it made several key plays throughout. One big difference between the Bills’ blowout loss to the Ravens in Week 4 and Sunday’s nailbiter win was the presence of linebackers Terrel Bernard and Matt Milano. Both of them missed the first meeting, and the Bills’ run defense was gashed immediately -- and consistently. On Sunday, they helped keep the Ravens’ explosive run plays in check, and they each made game-changing plays. Bernard’s strip of Andrews in the fourth quarter stopped the bleeding and allowed the Bills to go up eight points late. Without that one, they might have lost. Milano earlier deflected Jackson’s first two-point try, preventing the Ravens from tying the game at 21-all. He also was impactful as a blitzer, pressuring Jackson multiple times, forcing multiple incompletions. It wasn’t perfect from the Bills defense, but the early game plan paid off, and the veteran LB duo was a big part of pulling it off.

  4. Ravens will struggle to live this one down. Jackson did enough to lead the Ravens to a win on Sunday, even with his mistakes. He forced his early interception, and his fumble in the backfield felt pretty unforced, leading to the Bills taking a two-possession lead at halftime. Those two he can’t take back. The rest was mostly great as Jackson played at or near his MVP level for stretches in this game. The 88-yard drive Jackson led at the end of the game should have gone in the career and franchise highlight reels. And, of course, his pass to Andrews on the two-point try was right where it needed to be. That certainly will be the lasting memory of this all-time, heartbreaking loss. Every franchise has their Hall Of Worst in this regard, and the Ravens will be making space on the mantle for this dud. They took the lead early, but there was not enough continuity, settling for short field goals a few times and giving the ball away three times. It’s hard to win minus-three in the turnover department on the road against an MVP-caliber quarterback, and yet the Ravens almost did it.

  5. Bills-Chiefs will add another chapter to tremendous rivalry. Since Patrick Mahomes and Josh Allen have risen to prominence, Chiefs-Bills has been just about as good a rivalry the NFL has offered in recent years. They’ll now meet for the second time in the AFC Championship Game and for the fourth time in the postseason. The Bills have won three of the past four head-to-head meetings, and they were the only team to take down the back-to-back champs this season, 30-21, in Highmark Stadium. But those wins came in the regular season and this one will be back at Arrowhead Stadium, where the Bills suffered arguably their most crushing loss since Super Bowl XXV, the infamous “13 seconds” game in Jan. 2022 that is high up there in the all-time playoff annals. You can’t ask for much more than this. While both the Chiefs and Bills are flawed, each are capable of winning it all. But only one team can, and it could come down to the heavyweight battle of star quarterbacks.
Next Gen Stats Insight for Ravens-Bills (via NFL Pro): The Ravens lost a total of -36.7% in net win probability on turnovers in their loss to the Bills. They lost -5.9% win probability on an interception by Taylor Rapp intended for Rashod Bateman, -19.3% win probability on Damar Hamlin's strip sack, and -11.5% win probability on Mark Andrews’ fumble recovered by Terrel Bernard.

NFL Research: Josh Allen has seven playoff rushing TDs in 12 playoff games, adding two on Sunday against the Ravens. He is now tied for second all-time for QB rushing TDs in the postseason with Tom Brady, who did it in 48 playoff games. Steve Young (eight) leads the way, doing it in 22 postseason games.
 
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After knocking off Ravens, ‘different’ Bills turn their attention to all-too-familiar Chiefs

The previous playoff meetings with the Chiefs are filled with painful memories.
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With every Ravens turnover, every field goal forced instead of surrendering a touchdown, and every failed two-point conversion that kept the opponents just out of reach, it marched the Bills closer and closer to what they’ve been yearning to get back to for years.

At long last, the Bills have returned to the AFC Championship Game. Their 27-25 triumph over the Ravens exorcised several demons in both this season and previous ones.

Over the last three years, it’s been like a record stuck in a loop, repeating the same part of the song that drives everyone listening up the wall. In the divisional round, a super-talented Bills team with so much promise eventually yielded the way to the final four to another AFC superpower. First, it was the Chiefs. Then it was the Bengals. Then the Chiefs again. But this year… this year was different.

“You learn from all of the scars,” left tackle Dion Dawkins said. “You never want that feeling again.”

“I think there’s something kind of intangible about this team that feels different,” tight end Dawson Knox said. “It’s kind of hard to put your finger on.”

Knox isn’t alone. It’s a sentiment shared throughout the locker room, permeating throughout the fan base. Some think it’s the players. Others may point to how head coach Sean McDermott has evolved. However, that unquantifiable feeling about how the 2024-2025 Bills are different, in fact, yielded a different outcome than the past.

With all the talk centering on the Ravens and how the Bills would have to adjust to them, they forced the Ravens to adjust. The Bills kept Derrick Henry below the century mark after allowing him to hit nearly 200 rushing yards in Week 4. They took the fight to the Ravens’ defensive line, who, for good reason, drew rave reviews for their run-defending. The Bills running backs averaged 4.9 yards per carry on 26 attempts. They forced Ravens quarterback Lamar Jackson into two game-changing turnovers.

And by the end of the evening, there the Bills stood, with snow trickling down, allowing the scoreboard’s bright red, white and royal blue lights to shine a jumbotron-long banner even brighter.

“Next stop, AFC Championship.”

And that next stop is to Kansas City — because, of course it is.

The very Chiefs team that gave the Bills a cruel lesson on what it takes in the AFC Championship Game four years ago, who punished them for in-game mistakes and flawed decisions en route to a blowout loss, well, there they are again — the AFC gatekeepers of the Super Bowl.

Only 13 players from that AFC Championship Game Bills team remain on the roster. Allen, Dawkins and Knox were there, along with Micah Hyde, Matt Milano, Taron Johnson, Ed Oliver, A.J. Epenesa, Cam Lewis, Reggie Gilliam, Quinton Jefferson, Tyler Bass and Reid Ferguson.

The original 13 are acutely aware of just how poetic the upcoming showdown is.

“Yeah, 100 percent,” Lewis said. “I feel like we wouldn’t want it no other way.”

“I was watching the (Chiefs-Texans) game the other night with my girlfriend,” Epenesa started. “She was like, ‘What if the Texans win?’ I was like, ‘Yeah, you know, on paper they’re the lesser team, whatever, whatever, but how much sweeter would it be to be able to beat the team that got us a couple of times in the past and everything like that?’ So I’m definitely on that page right now as we have our opportunity to do something, and I’m looking forward to it.”

A lot has changed for the Bills between the first AFC Championship matchup and now.

At that point, the Bills were simply novices. It was all new to them after only getting to the wild-card round the year before. They didn’t know what they didn’t know about deep playoff runs. The expectation was that they’d be back — and soon. It was only a matter of time.

“Soon” wasn’t quite what everyone expected. The Bills have learned difficult lessons, year after year, most of which were dealt to them by the very franchise they’ll face next weekend.

On Sunday, the Bills will have played in Kansas City more times than they have at any of their division rivals over the last five years. They’ve been there every year since that first AFC title tilt, with Sunday marking their sixth soiree at Arrowhead. It will be the eighth meeting between these two AFC behemoths over the last five years, four happening in the postseason.

But you don’t have to be reminded about how the last three have turned out. Most fans of the team have carried the weight like an elephant sitting on their collective chest.

AFC Championship Game in 2021 — a lopsided loss. AFC Divisional round in 2022 — a gut-punching loss with victory being so close they could taste it. AFC Divisional round in 2024 — another loss so close it had many wondering if the Bills would even return after an offseason roster refresh.

It all led to this year — the return to the AFC Championship Game coming in a year where no one thought it possible before the season. Standing before the Chiefs on Sunday will be the Bills, a sculpted Super Bowl contender, hardened by one excruciating playoff exit after another.

“For the guys that were there [in 2021], it’ll definitely I think be a little extra chip on the shoulder,” Knox started. “In a way, it can help. You can let it fuel you a little bit, but if you dwell on it too hard or too long, I think it’s distracting at a point. But if you kind of just let it lay underneath the surface, if it helps you bring a little extra motivation, a little extra work in the week, great. But we’re not going to be dwelling on that too hard.”

That’s one of many things that have changed about this Bills team.

Gone is the wily Allen, who, through all his brilliance, had a penchant for a back-breaking turnover. Gone are the one-dimensional, pass-happy Bills, who ran the ball well only after ample success through the air. Gone is the weak-link offensive line of the past that led to uneven results. And gone is a head coach who usually opted toward conservative in-game decisions.

In their place is a franchise quarterback playing the best football of his life, a running game that can take all the pressure off that franchise quarterback at any point during a game, an offensive line that is one of the team’s greatest strengths and a coach in complete trust of his players and the math, unafraid of fourth downs.

But opposing them will be a Chiefs team that has pivoted multiple times throughout its incredible run, all while remaining the class of the NFL. And certainly, a team eager to undo their lone loss of the 2024 regular season against the team that spoiled its perfect season.

The Bills and Chiefs are perfectly intertwined, both in their personal connectors and playoff histories. However, as always, neither can live while the other survives.

“History does have a way of repeating itself,” Dawkins said. “But sometimes, it has a different outcome. We’ll see how this one goes.”
 
Balls

Terrel Bernard. Play of the game. We had lost momentum, our O was stalled, theirs was rolling. TB comes up with the goods. Fucking baller bro

Josh Allen. Efficient, did what he had to do despite being held back by conservative game plan

Cook/Ty/Davis. The 3 headed monster was up and running

Shakir. Mr. Reliable

Mark Andrews. The real MVP. Send this man some gifts.

OL. Good run game, Allen kept up straight as usual

Rapp. Pick

Von/Hamlin. Sack and fumble. Thanks Lamar!

Bass. Clutch kicks



Goats

2nd half O. They died, too conservative, too basic. 3rd and 5 screen to Knox? No involvement of anyone not named Shakir. Had a chance to ice the game and failed. Not Brady's best day to be honest. Or was it McD asking for that type of game plan?

2nd hald D. If not for the TB play and Andrews having his worst game as a pro I don't know boys. They were being gashed, dishonorable mention to the DL who once again took the clutch moments off and had Lamar fucking baddies and drinking coffee before finding open receivers. That wont cut it vs KC

Holding call on Dawkins. BS again. However, they made up for it with the bogus DPI on my man Tre. So I guess it evens out.



Bottom line

We got the W. I don't care about style points. Are there concerns going forward? Absolutely. Ravens went 7 for 10 on 3rd down. They never punted. We once again had to rely on turnovers. Those don't always happen. I cant imagine Mahomes just fumbling a ball for no reason or Kelce having a day like Andrew's. But whatever. For now, we move on. Lamar can suck a dick and take his fake "MVP" up his ass along with the disgusting fan base of the Ravens who shit on Allen all week long. Ditto for the hating media who cant get off his jock. Lots to work on on both sides of the ball. The game plan on O felt too limited didnt it? ... At no point was Allen unleashed. It was Shakir and nobody else. We took the foot off the gas once more and if not for Andrews being a doofus I dont know where we'd be.
 
Old Milano is back!

Hamlin by far his best game. 8 tackles 2 TFL Sack and he had the leg of Lamar when Von scooped up the fumble. Well done.

The fact that Henry had 84 yards… monster win. Only one was significantly long.

Holding Lamar to 39 and that was pretty mych all scrambles was big. The RPO really was just handoffs.

Rapp injury may force Hyde to be active
 
Balls:

Kobra Tie - Menace

Big Play Sugar Ray - TD

Dawkins - Animal

McGovern - Baller

Brown - Monster

Shakira - Pin balll

Con miller - Fumble recovery

Oliver - Impact

Aj - Unsung hero

Nard Dog - Key forced fumble

Millano - Tipped 2pt conversion attempt

Douglas - Recovered onside Kick

Wrap - INT

Hamlin - Sack and forced fumble

Bass Pro - Automatic

Ferguson - Excellent snaps all day



Goats:

None of note
 
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