NFL Power Rankings: Lions, Bills enter playoffs 1-2, plus a lesson learned for all 32 teams
The Lions move back into the top spot after their decisive win over the Vikings, plus one lesson learned for every NFL team.
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The NFL regular season is in the books after an eventful Week 18. For the top teams in our final regular-season power rankings, that means it’s time to get ready for the playoffs. For the 18 teams lingering at the bottom of this list, it’s time to figure out what went wrong and get ready for 2025. We’re trying to help in that endeavor with one lesson learned this season from all 32 teams.
1. Detroit Lions (15-2)
Last week: 4Sunday: Beat Minnesota Vikings 31-9
One lesson learned: “Next man up” may have its limits
Every football coach has said the phrase, “Next man up,” roughly one million times. It’s the sport’s reflex response to injuries, as in, “We don’t make excuses around here, the backup will come in and play just fine.” But the Lions’ rash of injuries this year could show the ultimate fallacy of that argument. This team has done everything right but has 16 players on injured reserve heading into the playoffs. Making matters worse, starting cornerback Terrion Arnold left Sunday night’s game in a walking boot.
2. Buffalo Bills (13-4)
Last week: 1Sunday: Lost to New England Patriots 23-16
One lesson learned: Special players matter
Buffalo traded Stefon Diggs and released Mitch Morse, Tre’Davious White and Jordan Poyer last offseason, and this still looks like the most dangerous Bills team of this window. Josh Allen is the reason. The Bills quarterback had 40 touchdowns, the fourth-most in the league, and only eight turnovers, the fewest among the NFL’s top 10 quarterbacks. Allen started and played one play Sunday to extend his consecutive starts streak to 115 and then hit the bench as Buffalo lost a meaningless game (for them).
3. Kansas City Chiefs (15-2)
Last week: 3Sunday: Lost to Denver Broncos 38-0
One lesson learned: Patrick Mahomes is the league’s MIP
That’s Most Important Player. There’s a great three-way race between Josh Allen, Joe Burrow and Lamar Jackson for MVP this year, but given truth serum, every coach in the league would take Mahomes at quarterback. He’s 15-1 this year as a starter (he sat out Sunday), and since 2018, he is 103-26 and has won three Super Bowls and played in another. Mahomes finished 10th in the league in EPA per dropback this season (.13). He’s still the best guy doing it right now.
4. Philadelphia Eagles (14-3)
Last week: 5Sunday: Beat New York Giants 20-13
One lesson learned: Running backs aren’t obsolete
There is some nuance to this lesson. The Giants are getting a lot of grief for letting Barkley go given that he rushed for 2,005 yards for their division rival this season despite sitting out Sunday. But their decision probably should be remembered only as “bad” and not “historically terrible.” Barkley would not have made the impact in New York that he made in Philly, where he put an offense with every other piece over the top. Expect good but not great teams to try to copy this model well into the future.
5. Minnesota Vikings (14-3)
Last week: 2Sunday: Lost to Detroit Lions 31-9
One lesson learned: Don’t give up on quarterbacks
Sunday night wasn’t the best argument for this lesson, but Sam Darnold is sixth in passer rating (102.5) and fifth in touchdown passes (35) this season. This is after being picked third in 2018 and then given up on by three teams and basically every NFL fan. Now we’ll see if he can bounce back from an 18-for-41 effort against the Lions that registered a 55.5 passer rating.
6. Baltimore Ravens (12-5)
Last week: 6Saturday: Beat Cleveland Browns 35-10
One lesson learned: Thirty is the new 20
Maybe that’s an exaggeration, but there’s no question Derrick Henry would have gotten more attention in free agency if he wasn’t 31 years old. He was 30 last offseason, and that’s traditionally considered the cliff for elite running backs. Not for Henry, who rushed for 1,921 yards this season and has made the Ravens offense one of the most dangerous in the league heading into the playoffs.
7. Washington Commanders (12-5)
Last week: 7Sunday: Beat Dallas Cowboys 23-19
One lesson learned: Winning the press conference is overrated
The Commanders were considered last year’s coaching carousel losers after Lions offensive coordinator Ben Johnson decided to return to Detroit, and Washington had to “settle” for Dan Quinn as head coach. It turns out Quinn’s positive approach and decision to hire Kliff Kingsbury as offensive coordinator were just what this Commanders team needed, and Washington is now in the playoffs for the second time since 2015. This is the first time the franchise has won more than 11 games since the 1991 Super Bowl season.
8. Green Bay Packers (11-6)
Last week: 8Sunday: Lost to Chicago Bears 24-22
One lesson learned: Don’t play in the NFC North
Despite Sunday’s dud, which Jordan Love left after 12 passes because of an elbow injury that resulted in numbness in his hand, Green Bay is one of the five best teams in its conference. The problem is the Packers aren’t close to being in the top two in their division because of the Vikings and Lions, who have beaten them four times this season (by an average of 4.25 points per game). Green Bay starts the playoffs with the NFC East champion Eagles, and Love said he’ll be ready to play.
9. Los Angeles Rams (10-7)
Last week: 9Sunday: Lost to Seattle Seahawks 30-25
One lesson learned: Don’t forget about Sean McVay
After the Rams’ 5-12 2022 season, they have now made the playoffs twice, and that’s after starting this season 1-4. This team is in the bottom half of the league in scoring (367 points) and scoring defense (386 points allowed) and is the only playoff team with a negative point differential. And, still, the Rams won nine of their final 12 games despite Sunday’s loss, which Matthew Stafford sat out because they had locked up the NFC West.
10. Los Angeles Chargers (11-6)
Last week: 10Sunday: Beat Las Vegas Raiders 34-20
One lesson learned: Hire Jim Harbaugh
Harbaugh was out of NFL coaching for 10 years. Now he’s back and the Chargers are in the playoffs. His .681 winning percentage is the second-best among active head coaches. Now the Chargers go to Houston to play the shaky Texans. Sunday’s highlight was wide receiver Quentin Johnston’s 13 catches for a career-high 186 yards.
Payne Durham and the Buccaneers are headed back to the playoffs. No one should be surprised. (Mike Ehrmann / Getty Images)
11. Tampa Bay Buccaneers (10-7)
Last week: 12Sunday: Beat New Orleans Saints 27-19
One lesson learned: This is not the 1980s (or ’90s or 2000s)
It’s like none of us want to believe in the Buccaneers because of their putrid history over the three previous decades, but Tampa Bay has now won the NFC South four times in a row. The season before that, it won the Super Bowl. The Bucs of recent vintage aren’t great (they’re 28-26 in the last three years, counting the playoffs), but they keep dismissing the upstarts in their division.
12. Cincinnati Bengals (9-8)
Last week: 13Saturday: Beat Pittsburgh Steelers 19-17
One lesson learned: Depth matters
The Bengals are the first team in NFL history to have players lead the league in passing yards (Joe Burrow, 4,918), receiving yards (Ja’Marr Chase, 1,708) and sacks (Trey Hendrickson, 17 1/2) in a season. And still, they will be sitting at home this postseason despite a five-game winning streak to finish the season.
13. Denver Broncos (10-7)
Last week: 14Sunday: Beat Kansas City Chiefs 38-0
One lesson learned: Maybe Sean Payton was right
The veteran coach raised eyebrows with his effusive praise of rookie quarterback Bo Nix, who many people thought he over-drafted at No. 12 in April, but Nix had a very promising first season. He finished first among rookie quarterbacks in passing touchdowns (29) and passing yards per game (222.1) and second in EPA per dropback (.03) and passer rating (93.3).
14. Pittsburgh Steelers (10-7)
Last week: 11Saturday: Lost to Cincinnati Bengals 19-17
One lesson learned: Turnovers, turnovers, turnovers
In Weeks 1-14, as the Steelers built a 10-3 record, they were tied for first in turnover margin (plus-17). In Weeks 15-18, as they lost four straight, they were 18th in turnover margin (minus-1). They also played the Eagles, Ravens, Chiefs and Bengals down the stretch, which makes a difference. Pittsburgh is headed to the playoffs to face the Ravens for the third time this season. If the Steelers win that game, it will be their first playoff victory since 2016.
15. Houston Texans (10-7)
Last week: 15Sunday: Beat Tennessee Titans 23-14
One lesson learned: Pump the brakes
“If the Texans can survive being this offseason’s hot team, it could be a special season in Houston.” That’s what it said in our pre-training camp power rankings, which had the Texans at No. 4. They did not, and it has not been. Wide receiver injuries, regression by C.J. Stroud and five losses by eight or fewer points undid Houston and should teach a lot of us that we got too excited about last year’s 10-7 record and big playoff win over the Browns. Houston’s point differential (zero) is the second-lowest among playoff teams.
16. Seattle Seahawks (10-7)
Last week: 16Sunday: Beat Los Angeles Rams 30-25
One lesson learned: It’s still a line-of-scrimmage game
The Seahawks figured out new head coach Mike Macdonald’s defensive system down the stretch and were formidable on that side of the ball. It didn’t matter, though, because Seattle finished the season 18th in scoring (22.1 ppg). That’s because Geno Smith was sacked 50 times and pressured on 38.5 percent of his dropbacks, both of which were the third worst in the league among full-season starters. Seattle fired offensive coordinator Ryan Grubb on Monday and has to figure out a way to protect Smith if next season is going to turn out better.
