Sabres' trade-deadline strategy among the storylines to watch the rest of the season
Even though the Sabres' playoff hopes were dashed by a 13-game winless streak in November and December, there are several storylines worth monitoring over the final two months of the season.
An unusually long midseason break for most Buffalo Sabres will come to a jarring end Tuesday afternoon when another Lindy Ruff-led training camp begins.
Ruff is going to put his players through fast-paced, exhaustive drills across four consecutive days of practice to prepare the Sabres for their next game, a matchup against the New York Rangers in KeyBank Center at 5:30 p.m. Saturday.
The Sabres signed Jason Zucker to a one-year contract last July. Will they keep him or trade him? Joed Viera, Buffalo News
Lungs will burn. Legs will ache. Some players didn’t plan to skate at all while the NHL regular season was paused for the 4 Nations Face-Off. Others were going to bookend a vacation with individual on-ice workouts. Before the Sabres departed Nashville with a 6-4 loss on Feb. 8, Ruff issued a simple reminder that everyone needed to be ready to win a hockey game when the break ended.
The Sabres remain at the bottom of the Eastern Conference with a 22-27-5 record, and only 28 games remain on their regular-season schedule. They need a long, unprecedented win streak to snap a playoff drought that began in 2011. Four of their next six games are at home, and winger Jordan Greenway may return from a two-month absence as soon as Saturday.
Even though the Sabres’ playoff hopes were dashed by a 13-game winless streak in November and December, there are several storylines worth monitoring over the final two months of the season.
1. Trade deadline
General manager Kevyn Adams has until the trade deadline March 7 to make significant changes to the Sabres’ roster.Most of the NHL’s 32 teams have contacted Adams to express interest in center Dylan Cozens. Winger Alex Tuch and defenseman Bowen Byram are also the subject of trade inquiries because it’s unclear if either are in the Sabres’ long-term plans. The club is attempting to complete a deal similar to the one last March that brought Byram to Buffalo in exchange for Casey Mittelstadt.
The Sabres aren’t interested in acquiring more draft picks or prospects, though they may have to accept such an offer for Greenway and/or Jason Zucker if the club is unable to sign the pending unrestricted free agents to contract extensions. Henri Jokiharju also will draw interest because he’s a right-shot defenseman on an expiring contract who has lost ice time since Ruff became coach.
Buffalo’s shopping list should included a top-four, right-shot defenseman and a proven top-six scorer. There’s an emphasis on adding more playoff experience, leadership and toughness to the lineup.
2. Contract negotiations
Zucker and Greenway aren’t the only players the Sabres may want to sign to contract extensions.Byram, center Ryan McLeod and winger JJ Peterka will receive pay raises as restricted free agents this summer, but Buffalo doesn’t have to sign any of the three to a long-term contract. It can retain their rights for next season with a qualifying offer, or extend them with a short-term contract.
AFP Analytics projects Byram to receive a $5.238 million average annual value on a two-year contract, or a $7.27 million average annual value on a seven-year contract. The Rochester-based analytics firm has McLeod receiving a three-year contract worth $3.042 million per season, and its projection for Peterka on a long-term contract is a six-year deal with a $6.6 million average annual value.
3. Goaltending
Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen hasn’t been as shaky as most statistics suggest, but he hasn’t been the consistent No. 1 goalie the Sabres need, either.Luukkonen has an .895 save percentage and 3.02 goals-against average in 39 appearances. Of the 35 NHL goalies to appear in at least 25 games, Luukkonen ranks 28th in MoneyPuck’s goals saved above expected. He has an .883 save percentage and 3.52 goals against average against Atlantic Division opponents.
The Sabres need Luukkonen to correct the technical mistakes that have caused uncharacteristic lapses. He’s leaving his crease too often and unnecessarily dropping into a butterfly stance, neither of which happened as frequently during his stellar performance last season. Playing goal for the Sabres is a challenging gig. They are 24th in the NHL in shot quality allowed at 5-on-5, according to Evolving Hockey. The Sabres goalie coach, Mike Bales, needs to get Luukkonen back to playing at a high level.
4. Power’s progress
The Sabres need Owen Power to have an encouraging finish to the season.Power’s 27 even-strength points are tied with Byram and Dahlin for ninth-most among NHL defensemen this season. Power also ranks fifth in assists per 60 minutes at 5-on-5, and he needs only six points to tie the career best he set two seasons ago.
At 22 years old, Power is dynamic when transporting the puck out of his defensive zone, but his development hasn’t been as fast as many fans would like, either. Power is still learning the nuances of playing his position in the Sabres’ end of the ice, and he has only two power-play points as the quarterback of their second unit. He’s proven that he understands how to use angling to separate an opponent from the puck, however, he’s still making too mistakes when protecting his net from high-danger scoring chances.
Cozens, Zach Benson and Jack Quinn also need to make strides the rest of the season. Cozens is on pace for a career high in average ice time per game, but he has a minus-6 rating at 5-on-5 and only 11 goals with 27 points in 54 games. Benson and Quinn have a combined 18 goals, while the latter is a minus-17.
5. Power play
Can Ruff and assistant coach Seth Appert fix the Sabres’ 27th-ranked power play?Here’s a snapshot of how Buffalo has performed in five segments of the season:
Games 1-8: 0-for-22.
Games 9-19: 11-for-37.
Games 20-33: 2-for-37.
Games 34-46: 11-for-37.
Games 47-54: 2-for-23.
The Sabres have gone a combined 4-for-82, or .048%, across 28 games this season, and they had two encouraging stretches in which they converted on 22 of 74 opportunities, or 29.7%. For context, the Winnipeg Jets lead the NHL at 33.3% this season. Only four teams have scored more 5-on-5 goals than Buffalo. This team would be battling for a playoff spot if it had an average power play.
Sabres center Jiri Kulich has nine goals since Dec. 1 and is tied with the Sharks' Macklin Celebrini for most by an NHL rookie during that span. Joed Viera, Buffalo News
6. Center depth
How will we view the Sabres’ depth at center after Game 82?Jiri Kulich changed their short-term outlook at the position with his impressive play over the past 10 weeks. His nine goals since Dec. 1 are tied with the San Jose Sharks’ Macklin Celebrini for the most by an NHL rookie during that span. Kulich is only 20 years old and earned Ruff’s trust with his attention to detail in the defensive zone. You can pencil him into Buffalo’s top nine next season, but who’s the No. 1 center?
It’s unclear how the Sabres plan to use Tage Thompson after he looked more comfortable and effective at right wing in recent weeks. He has 26 goals and 48 points in 48 games, but a bothersome injury forced him to move from center. He’s also never won more than 43% of his faceoffs in a season, which is a challenge when he’s on the ice against the opponent’s best players.
Cozens, on the other hand, improved in the faceoff dot but has yet to produce offensively like he did in 2022-23, when he had 31 goals and 68 points. Peyton Krebs’ physicality, work ethic and prowess in the defensive zone have earned him a bigger role with Ruff as coach, but Krebs has only four goals and 16 points in 53 games.
McLeod, 25, will surpass his previous career highs in goals, points and average ice time per game. He’s also won 51% of his faceoffs, kills penalties and defends well. Tyson Kozak, Noah Ostlund and Konsta Helenius are talented prospects in Rochester, but can the Sabres count on any of the three to be in the NHL full-time next season?
7. Changes
It’s too soon to know how many changes the Sabres will make to their coaching and hockey operations staffs.The club retained all but two assistant coaches from last season after Ruff was rehired in April, and he has only one year remaining on his contract. Would the Sabres fire assistant coaches with term left on their contracts and hire others to multiyear contracts under the circumstances? The Sabres haven’t made a significant change in hockey operations since the hirings of associate general manager Jason Karmanos and vice president of hockey strategy and analytics Sam Ventura.
