Scouting the Jaguars: How the Bills stack up against third-seeded Jacksonville


Thrilling victories and heartbreaking losses over the past several seasons transformed the Buffalo Bills into a resilient team that can make exceptional plays in the biggest moments.

The road ahead will be challenging, though. If the Bills are going to win Super Bowl LX in Santa Clara, Calif., they'll need to accomplish a feat only five other teams have achieved since the wild-card playoff system began in 1970.

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Jaguars quarterback Trevor Lawrence has appeared in two playoff games during his career.
He's thrown five touchdowns in those games, but has also been picked off five times. John Raoux, Associated Press

The 1985 New England Patriots, 2005 Pittsburgh Steelers, 2007 New York Giants, 2010 Green Bay Packers and 2020 Tampa Bay Buccaneers are the only teams to win three games on the road to reach the Super Bowl. Buffalo has not won a playoff game on the road since Sean McDermott became coach in 2017.

Getting to the NFL's penultimate game isn't the goal.

The Bills (12-5) want to win it all, and their path begins at 1 p.m. Sunday in Jacksonville, Fla., against the third-seeded Jaguars (13-4). Here are some matchups to watch as Buffalo prepares for its seventh consecutive trip to the postseason:

Strength vs. strength​

The NFL's best rushing offense will square off against its best rushing defense.

The Jaguars' top-ranked run defense allowed 100-plus yards just five times in 17 regular-season games, and it doesn't need to stack the box to stymie opponents. Jacksonville deployed a light box (six or fewer defenders) on 44.2% of run plays, the ninth-highest rate in the NFL, according to Next Gen Stats. It gave up just 85.9 yards per game and the third-fewest runs of 10-plus yards (34).

None of the Jaguars' opponents ran the ball like the Bills, though. James Cook won the rushing title with 1,621 yards, and he became the only player in franchise history to rush for at least 2,500 yards and 25 touchdowns over the span of two seasons. In the 2025 regular season, Buffalo ranked first in rushing yards per game (159.6), second in rushing yards per play (five), second in rushes of 10-plus yards (68), third in Next Gen Stats' success rate and third in yards before contact per attempt (1.77).

"You can't forget about James Cook," Jaguars linebacker Devin Lloyd said Monday in Jacksonville. "He's obviously a great player, led the league in rushing. He's just a really good back. It's the No. 1 rush defense versus No. 1 rush offense."

Stopping Lawrence​

This will be the most difficult test the Bills' pass defense has faced since Week 14, when the Cincinnati Bengals' Joe Burrow threw for 284 yards and four touchdowns.
Buffalo's pass defense ranks first in yards per game (156.9) in part because opponents prioritize the run against the Bills, but their secondary has improved throughout the season. Christian Benford and Taron Johnson got healthy. Jordan Poyer replaced Taylor Rapp, who suffered a season-ending knee injury. Cole Bishop developed into an excellent safety. Tre'Davious White kept getting better and Maxwell Hairston returned from a knee injury, but the Bills' depth at boundary cornerback took a hit in the regular-season finale when Hairston suffered an ankle injury.

The Jaguars have three receivers who Buffalo must respect: Brian Thomas Jr., Jakobi Meyers and Parker Washington. Inconsistency is a problem for Jacksonville quarterback Trevor Lawrence, but he had an outstanding finish to the season. During the Jaguars' eight-game win streak, Lawrence completed 62.7% of his passes for 2,009 yards with 24 total touchdowns (19 passing) and five interceptions with three coming in one game. His totals for the season would be better if the Jaguars didn't lead the league with 45 dropped passes.

The Bills' defense will need to be disciplined with how it rushes Lawrence and covers his pass-catchers because he can hurt you with his legs. Only five quarterbacks had more scrambles than Lawrence this season. Buffalo allowed 8.72 yards per quarterback scramble, according to SumerSports. Edge rushers can't lose contain. Covering receivers man to man is risky against a quarterback like Lawrence. They can't let him get comfortable, either.

When the Jaguars gave Lawrence a "clean pocket" over the past six games, Lawrence completed 69.2% of his passes for 1,180 yards with 13 touchdowns and no interceptions, according to Next Gen Stats. Greg Rousseau and Joey Bosa, among others, need to get to Lawrence. McDermott does not want to rely on blitzing.
"I think you just see Trevor's comfortable," said Bills defensive coordinator Bobby Babich. "He's comfortable in the offense. He's comfortable in their operation, with what they're doing. They do some good things on offense and they've got some talent around him, which certainly helps."

Blindside​

The Bills need left tackle Dion Dawkins' best effort this week.

His assignment will be to block Jaguars edge rusher Josh Hines-Allen, who totaled eight sacks with 12 tackles for a loss in 17 games. Hines-Allen lined up on the right side of Jacksonville's defensive line on nearly 75% of his snaps in the regular season, and his 80 quarterback pressures were tied for fourth-most in the NFL. The talent in their front seven allows the Jaguars to blitz at the 20th-highest rate in the NFL.

Dawkins, meanwhile, ranks second in the NFL in ESPN's pass-block win rate, but Pro Football Focus credited him with the second-most sacks he's allowed (six) in his nine-season career.

"Dion takes so much pride in being Josh Allen's left tackle, and he knows what comes with being a left tackle is going against the best defensive ends in the NFL, and Josh Hines-Allen is one of them," said Bills offensive coordinator Joe Brady. "And it's a task that I know the best of the best are always up for."

Tight ends​

Can the Bills throw to their tight ends against the Jaguars' defense? Jacksonville allowed 80-plus receiving yards to the position just three times in 17 games. In one of those games, however, Las Vegas Raiders tight end Brock Bowers caught 12 passes for 127 yards and three touchdowns in Week 9.

Dalton Kincaid will need to play a key role for the Bills. The third-year tight end returned from a knee injury in Week 18 to catch three passes for 48 yards. Buffalo is 10-2 this season when Kincaid is in the lineup and 10-1 when he finishes the game.

If a tight end can't produce, then the Bills need one of their receivers – Khalil Shakir and Brandin Cooks appear to be the best options – to make clutch catches. The Jaguars' top boundary corners, Greg Newsome and Montaric Brown, have allowed just one touchdown in the past six games.

Playing clean​

The Bills can't afford to give the ball away.

Jacksonville ranked second in the NFL with 31 takeaways and its offense scored 103 points off turnovers. Buffalo was 2-4 in the regular season when it turned the ball over at least twice. In their four losses, Allen threw six interceptions and the Bills had 11 turnovers. He wasn't the only one at fault, either. It will be important for Allen to avoid the momentum-killing sacks. He lost 162 yards on 19 third-down sacks in the regular season.

"They are very sound in what they do," McDermott noted.

Discipline​

Discipline will be important for the Bills.

The Jaguars use pre-snap motion at the fourth-highest rate in the NFL. Second- and third-level defenders must read their keys and maintain gap integrity to prevent running back Travis Etienne from getting into the open field. Jacksonville ranks 20th in rushing yards per game (115.1) and 19th in Next Gen Stats' expected points added per rush, but the Jaguars have a creative play-caller who can find ways to take advantage of a defense's mistakes.

Jacksonville rushed for at least 100 yards in 11 of 17 games during the regular season. The Bills finished 28th in rushing yards allowed per game (136.2) and they allowed the second-most rushes of 10-plus yards (65), but they allowed 100 yards twice in their last six games. First-year Jaguars coach Liam Coen likes to go no huddle, a tendency he learned while working under Los Angeles Rams coach Sean McVay.

While facing no-huddle plays in the regular season, Buffalo allowed 4.6 yards per carry and 5.7 yards per pass attempt.

"They do a great job of keeping you off balance," McDermott said of the Jaguars.

Special teams​

We don't know who will kick for the Bills because Matt Prater re-injured his right quad. The Jaguars, meanwhile, have one of the NFL's best in Cam Little, who made a record-breaking 67-yard field goal in Week 18.

Both have talented return units, too, with Buffalo and Jacksonville ranking fourth and six, respectively, in average kickoff return. Bills running back Ray Davis finished as the NFL's leading kick returner with an average of 30.4 yards, a new single-season franchise record.

Unleashing Allen?​

The Jaguars' defense ranked second in Next Gen Stats' expected points added allowed per pass attempt, but they faced a backup or rookie quarterback in six of their final seven games.

Jacksonville has not faced an elite quarterback since Oct. 19, when the Rams' Matthew Stafford threw five touchdown passes to beat the Jaguars, 35-7. Over the past four postseasons, Allen completed 68.4% of his passes for 2,278 yards with 26 total touchdowns (20 passing) and three interceptions in nine games.

"He typically shows up and makes critical plays at critical moments and that's why he’s been an MVP candidate for a long time," Coen told reporters in Jacksonville when asked about Allen.

Third downs​

The Bills' third-down defense needs to be better in the playoffs. They ranked 24th in the regular season, allowing a conversion rate of 41.4%. Buffalo allowed 6.1 yards per carry on third down, while its pass defense intercepted three passes and held quarterbacks to a 64% passer rating. Jacksonville was eighth in the NFL in Next Gen Stats' expected points added per pass attempt on third down.
 
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The Athletic: Bills must do what they never have: Win on road in playoffs … and in Jacksonville​

www.nytimes.com

Bills must do what they never have: Win on road in playoffs … and in Jacksonville

Buffalo has never won a road playoff game during the Josh Allen and Sean McDermott era, and they'll have to end that streak this weekend.
www.nytimes.com www.nytimes.com

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Josh Allen has never won a game in Jacksonville. Sam Greenwood / Getty Images

The Process began in 2017, when Sean McDermott became the coach and Brandon Beane the general manager.

The Process was catalyzed a year later, when they traded up to draft franchise quarterback Josh Allen.

The Process, however, has involved neither a playoff road victory nor a win in Jacksonville of any kind.

Welcome, Buffalo Bills, to your 2025-26 postseason.

To reach the Super Bowl, barring a very specific sequence of wins and losses in the AFC bracket that would put the conference title game back to Highmark Stadium against the lower-seeded Los Angeles Chargers, the Bills will need to win three straight games outside Orchard Park.

The journey begins at 1 p.m. ET Sunday against the Jacksonville Jaguars in EverBank Stadium.

McDermott and Beane are 0-5 on the playoff road, with Allen the quarterback for all but one of those defeats. Buffalo was the underdog in every game, but didn’t come close, as expected, going 1-4 against the spread. Granted, three of those games were against the mighty Kansas City Chiefs, but the Bills have won plenty at Arrowhead Stadium in the regular season. The other road playoff losses were at Jacksonville in 2017-18 and in overtime at Houston in 2019-20.

“Playing on the road anytime is tough, in particular in the playoffs against a good football team,” McDermott said.

“We’re playing a heck of a football team this week. So we know that. We’ve got to be dialed in on the challenge that’s in front of us and be ready.”

The Bills had a pretty cushy road schedule this year, playing once outside the Eastern time zone, yet staggered around early. After an all-too-easy blowout over the New York Jets at the Meadowlands, the Bills won a single road game over their next four tries, including losses to the Atlanta Falcons and Miami Dolphins.

But the Bills have won three straight road games, pummeling the Pittsburgh Steelers, storming back to beat the New England Patriots and holding on against the Cleveland Browns.

The Jaguars, meanwhile, have been a strong home team. They went 7-1 in EverBank Stadium, losing to the Seattle Seahawks, the NFC’s best regular-season team. The Jaguars technically lost another home game, a 35-7 beatdown versus the Los Angeles Rams in London.

“It’s a team that we played last season, but the team overall has changed, the complexion of the team, some of their roster has changed as well,” McDermott said.

“I thought one of the moves that’s made a difference for them offensively was adding Jakobi Meyers, good pickup for them – probably a guy that’s, quite honestly, been undervalued in his career. But going against him in New England, a ton of respect for his game.”

Much has been made of McDermott’s winless road record, but Sunday’s matchup also puts Beane in the spotlight because of Jacksonville’s ability to land Meyers at the November trade deadline. Beane was unsuccessful at acquiring boundary receiver help for Allen, but the Las Vegas Raiders traded Meyers for fourth- and sixth-round draft choices. In nine games for the Jaguars, Meyers caught 42 passes for 483 yards and three touchdowns.

Buffalo also won’t have rookie cornerback Maxwell Hairston for at least this week. He suffered an ankle injury in Sunday’s meaningless game. Hairston would not have played as much if Ja’Marcus Ingram were still on the roster. Beane cut Ingram to make room for waiver pickup Darius Slay, who refused to report. The Houston Texans snatched up Ingram immediately.

With the Bills thin at linebacker Sunday and wanting to rest edge rushers Joey Bosa and Gregory Rousseau, veteran Tre’Davious White and Hairston started at cornerback. It wasn’t ideal that White, who’ll turn 31 next week, had to play 100 percent of the defensive snaps.

Other than Hairston and kicker Matt Prater, McDermott on Monday delivered a hopeful injury report: Defensive tackle DaQuan Jones, linebacker Terrel Bernard and safety Jordan Poyer are getting healthier.

But if the game comes down to a field goal, that might be a problem. Prater aggravated his previous quadriceps injury Sunday. McDermott said Prater is “more day to day,” but added the club “more than likely will bring some kickers in” Tuesday for tryouts in case Prater cannot go. Last month, the Bills signed Michael Badgley for two games. He missed an extra point in each game and has missed five all season, including time with the Indianapolis Colts.

Imagine the stress and potential heartbreak if Buffalo’s hopes to advance to the second round come down to an extra point or field goal.

McDermott tuned in Sunday night when Baltimore Ravens rookie Tyler Loop’s win-to-get-in, 44-yard attempt squirreled wide right as time expired against the Pittsburgh Steelers. McDermott watched to monitor whether Ravens running back Derrick Henry would chase down James Cook for the NFL rushing title. Cook held on, becoming the Bills’ first rushing king since 1976, but the second half produced a series of astounding plays and four lead changes.

“Playoff-level football,” McDermott said. “The game reminds us quite a bit of how you win games. We can stand to learn from that.

“Overall, just look at the second half of the way the game was played. Some things working out, some things not working out. I can promise it’s not because they’re not well-coached or it’s not because they’re not trying. I don’t want to go into strategy right now, with all due respect, but those are things we can use as teaching mechanisms for our team.”

Both of McDermott’s losses in EverBank Stadium were awhile ago, but each memorable in its own way. The venue will generate nothing but negative memories when the buses pull in, when the Bills prepare in the locker room, when they go out onto the field.

The Bills ended their 17-year playoff blight in January 2018. Their reward was a trip to play former coach Doug Marrone and the Jaguars. The Bills’ quarterbacks that day were Tyrod Taylor and Nathan Peterman. They lost 10-3.

Stakes were lower, but the performance somehow uglier when the Bills returned in November 2021. They were favored by 14.5 points over a deplorable Jaguars squad. Josh Allen lost a fumble, threw two interceptions and was sacked four times in a 9-6 defeat. It was the second and final victory of Urban Meyer’s NFL coaching career.

“You’ve got to start by playing with great fundamentals,” McDermott said of the road playoff formula, “not beating yourselves, taking care of the ball, all those things that’s important to us as a football team and the discipline that goes with that.”

Jacksonville ranked second with 31 takeaways and 22 interceptions this season. Linebacker Devin Lloyd made five interceptions, a fumble recovery, six tackles for losses and 10 quarterback hits despite missing two games.

Buffalo’s biggest vulnerability this season has been against the run. The Jaguars’ Travis Etienne rushed for 1,107 yards and seven touchdowns, while quarterback Trevor Lawrence ran for 358 yards and nine TDs on a pedestrian offense that ranked 18th at 5.2 yards per play, 27th in yards per carry (4.0) and 12th in net yards per pass attempt (6.3).

Lawrence threw for 4,007 yards and a career-high 29 touchdowns with 12 interceptions. He was sacked 41 times, once more than Allen. The NFL’s other Josh Allen — the Jaguars defensive end who changed his name to Josh Hines-Allen last year — leads Jacksonville with eight sacks (one for a safety) and 28 quarterback hits.

To say the road to the Super Bowl goes through Jacksonville sounds silly in the NFL’s grand scheme, but for a talented and decorated Bills group that never has won there, that’s the first stop on the quest.

For Allen, McDermott and Beane, a victory there would be unprecedented.

“At the end of the day,” McDermott said, “it’s a new game. It’s a different team this year. We’ve got to play and perform up to a certain level or we won’t have a chance to win.

“But that’s the key to our process this week.”
 
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