Super Bowl odds: Eagles emerge as favorite, but AFC champ will likely be favored in Super Bowl
The Eagles are the new favorite to win the Super Bowl entering the conference championship games, mostly due to facing the Commanders.
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The Divisional Round was cold and full of turnovers. From this wild set of games, a new Super Bowl favorite emerged. Philadelphia, having engineered a snow-covered escape against the Rams, leads all title contenders at +180 on BetMGM, at least for the moment.
The Eagles’ odds are due to their draw since they face the Washington Commanders instead of the Detroit Lions, and the two best teams in the field play each other in the AFC Championship. Whoever survives between Kansas City (+240) and Buffalo (+250) will immediately become the Super Bowl favorite, according to The Athletic’s Austin Mock, but they sit at second and third in the futures odds due to the misfortune of having to go through one another to get there.
Super Bowl 59 odds
How Buffalo gets there
The Bills look like the better team of the two, or at the very least, the more entertaining one. Buffalo not only posted a turnover-free game while grinding down the Ravens with a low-risk, high-efficiency offense, but they altered their style without missing a beat.Buffalo fans won’t be telling their kids stories about Josh Allen’s 127 passing yards or his 20 on the ground, but the MVP hopeful worked fast and without mistakes. He posted the third-quickest time to throw of his career and fastest this season, undermining the pressure Baltimore sent his way. His longest rush was only seven yards, but he felt unstoppable with the ball, scoring twice and emotionally draining the Ravens in third-down situations.
Defensively, the Bills broke protocol by sending 15 blitzes at Lamar Jackson. Buffalo blitzed on nearly half of all dropbacks, which is their highest rate in a game in three years. Their pressure led to mistakes and, since they weren’t making any themselves, turned the game in their favor. That adaptability, and the fact Allen didn’t need to be superhuman for the Bills offense to hum, is why the spread against the Chiefs is so narrow.
How Kansas City gets there
On paper, there’s a lot to like about Buffalo in this matchup, but this is January, and these are the Chiefs, and worst of all for the Bills, these are the January Chiefs in Kansas City. All season long, the defending champs have felt eminently mortal but confoundingly unkillable. They won all 11 of their close games, doing just enough to secure 15 victories but in a fashion that made it feel like they knew what “enough” was ahead of time while everyone else didn’t.This iteration of the Mahomes-led offense is so plodding that it often borders on unwatchable. Drives stall, turnovers come far more often, and progress — and points — are an act of drudgery. Then the clock hits zero and they go home winners. The Chiefs were outgained by the Texans by 100 yards, never turned them over, and still won handily. This was simply the purest form of the 2024 Chiefs: the answer to the question, “What if the tortoise was the villain of the fable?”
How Philly gets there
Neither of the two remaining NFC teams seemed equipped to stand up to the Chiefs, Bills, or even the Ravens at the outset of the playoffs, but Philadelphia looked like the next best shot if Detroit didn’t survive. After two games, neither they nor the Commanders (+700) look complete enough to win a fair fight against the AFC, but both possess weapons that make it so they don’t have to fight fair.The Rams hung in against the Eagles in a blizzard, and were it not for a season-saving sack by Philly’s Jalen Carter, may have pulled off a myth-making comeback to advance. But the fact it was close — or that there was drama at all — was primarily a product of the Eagle’s mistakes and head-scratching coaching decisions.
Behind Philadelphia’s row of hay-baler offensive linemen, Saquon Barkley tore Los Angeles to pieces. He ran for 7.9 yards per carry, with touchdowns from 62 and 78 yards out. The Rams seemed to contain him for stretches, but that’s precisely how the NFL rushing leader does damage. He pokes and prods while his line manhandles opponents, and when the second level makes a mistake, he strikes. Additionally, Jalen Hurts had a 44-yard touchdown run of his own and ended with 70 yards on seven carries, further illustrative of how Philly’s unrelenting pressure will eventually produce cracks that crumple a hull.
With all that ground success, one wonders why the play callers thought it prudent to have Hurts (on a clearly injured leg) drop back to pass in crucial late-game situations. One of those dropbacks resulted in a safety, the other in a massive sack that allowed the Rams to get the ball back for a final drive. The Eagles have just 186 net passing yards over their two playoff wins, and choosing those circumstances to try and improve that number seemed careless.
Against the Commanders, the knee-jerk assumption would be that Philadelphia must drastically increase their passing output if they hope to keep pace. But unlike the other three teams remaining, the Eagles aren’t built around a quarterback. They are built around an all-world offensive line and the all-world running back in Barkley. They can move away from Washington’s excellent secondary and strong pass rush and focus entirely on the run. The Commanders are 30th in rushing yards allowed per game, allow the third-most yards before contact, and have given up 64 runs of 10 or more yards (seventh-most).
How Washington gets there
Philadelphia allows the fewest pass yards per game and per play, and the second-best EPA per pass. Their run defense isn’t far behind, ranking inside the top 10 in nearly every category. They are the best defense in the field and certainly the best Daniels has faced, but whether or not they can slow the rookie down is anyone’s guess. Daniels has been infallible in the postseason, beating every scheme and exposing every defensive trick. Against the Lions, he was 12-of-16 against the blitz, throwing for 191 yards and a touchdown, and his unflappability made the four fourth-down attempts a no-brainer for the Commanders. Washington converted three of them (and got another on a penalty) and never once looked intimidated despite being on the road against the No. 1 seed.Washington has all the instruments, but Daniels makes it a symphony. His chances will be limited if Philly does the smart thing and runs all game, but he has shown he’s not going to make mistakes.
If the Eagles overwhelm the Commanders on the ground, their game plan for the Super Bowl will be pretty clear. Both AFC teams will have two weeks to scheme for a one-dimensional attack, but one that’s so good it might not matter that they know it’s coming. If Washington continues the ride, it will be because they masterfully adapted yet again. By the Super Bowl, the Commanders would have beaten three very different teams in three distinctly different ways, and neither Kansas City nor Buffalo could throw something at them they haven’t seen before.