Bills defense can’t get off field on third downs; A zoomed in and zoomed out look at issues
Some of the struggles have come from using inexperienced players.
www.nytimes.com
The Bills put together their third straight victory to open the 2025 season, but some questions remain — most notably, why the defense can’t get off the field.
It has many left wondering if the defense will be an issue for the Bills all season. Although the Bills may not have a big test on deck at home against the Saints on Sunday, the time to self-scout and fix these problems well before the late months of the season is critical.
After studying the Bills All-22 from their Week 3 win over the Dolphins, let’s dig into some of the issues that came to the surface and how to interpret them moving forward.
A micro look at the Bills’ third-down issues
Three games into the Bills’ season, there really isn’t much concern over what quarterback Josh Allen and the offense are doing. They’ve scored 30 or more points each week and haven’t turned the ball over once. Their success has propelled the Bills to a 3-0 record, while the defense has looked like a work in progress for two of those three wins.
Although the Jets game in Week 2 brought some temporary relief from the defensive problems displayed against the Ravens in the season opener, it does come with the caveat that the run-heavy Jets didn’t exactly operate a prolific two-dimensional offense with Justin Fields under center. Against those Jets, the Bills didn’t allow a single third-down conversion, and that can’t be taken away from them.
Though against the Ravens, and now, notoriously, against the Dolphins, the third-down defense was simply problematic. They’ve allowed a 61.5 percent third-down conversion rate in those two outings, and for context, the worst third-down defense in the NFL currently is the Cowboys at 53.7 percent. Even with the Jets game factored in, the Bills are still in the bottom 10 in the NFL on third-down stops.
So what was their third-down issue against the Dolphins? It seemed pertinent to take a case-by-case look at what went right, and most often, what went wrong when the Bills’ defense was trying to get off the field.
Attempt 1: 3rd-and-4, 13:28, first quarter
The play was a quick out to wide receiver Tyreek Hill along the right sideline, in which cornerback Christian Benford had tight coverage. It was a good throw by Tua Tagovailoa that barely got the Dolphins past the marker for five yards. Of their third-down misses, this was the least of their concerns.
Result: First down
Attempt 2: 3rd-and-1, 10:41, first quarter
The short-yardage attempt was more likely than not to be converted, but what was concerning on this rep was how much ground the Bills ceded just by getting beat to the spot. Rookie defensive tackle Deone Walker was initially lined up over where the run went to, but off the snap, Walker was pushed back and then walled off by a one-on-one block. At the same time, linebacker Terrel Bernard was taken out by a block attempt. Despite a valiant diving attempt from Dorian Williams, Ollie Gordon rushed eight yards for a pain-free first down.
Result: First down
(Courtesy: NFL+
Attempt 3: 3rd-and-goal, 8:34, first quarter
With two yards to the end zone, the Bills needed to hold up at the point of attack. The Dolphins targeted Walker again on this attempt by sending a combo block his way at the beginning of the rep. Note where he is as the block began — about a yard or so inside the right hashmark.
(Courtesy: NFL+)
One of the biggest parts of the job of a one-technique is being able to hold their ground against double teams. Walker couldn’t anchor down, as the block’s momentum carried him over a yard plus outside of the right hashmark. The block on Walker took out Bernard on the second level, while the rushing lane opened up for Gordon to get into the end zone.
Result: Touchdown
(Courtesy: NFL+)
Attempt 4: 3rd-and-5, 3:12, first quarter
The first time the Bills got off the field on third down, they had a bit of fortune going their way, as Tagovailoa bobbled the snap. The plan for the play at that point was over, as Tagovailoa scooped the ball and tried to get the first down with his legs and wound up only a couple of yards shy.
Result: Forced punt
Attempt 5: 3rd-and-9, 10:59, second quarter
This was one of the best reps the Bills had on third down, combining pass rush with good coverage. Tagovailoa’s first read brought him to the middle of the field, which Bernard took away. Just as Tagovailoa was about to go to his next read, DaQuan Jones fired into the pocket through a block that flushed the quarterback to roll to his left. As he did, Bernard turned around to take a quick look to see if there was a receiver anywhere close, which there wasn’t. Tagovailoa eventually tried to fire one into the sideline, with nickel Taron Johnson reading it and breaking up the attempt. This rep is important, because it’s exactly what the Bills are looking for on third downs.
Result: Incomplete, forced punt
Attempt 6: 3rd-and-1, 4:39, second quarter
It looked like this was the moment that Walker was about to make up for the other two third-down attempts. He sniffed out the run play, pulled a swim move past the initial blocker and angled himself past a second blocker to make contact with the rusher, Gordon. Rather than getting him wrapped up, Gordon bounced off Walker, and at the same time, rookie defensive tackle T.J. Sanders was pushed way off his spot to give Gordon enough room for three yards and a conversion.
Result: First down
Attempt 7: 3rd-and-12, 2:40, second quarter
This was a tough beat. The Bills called a well-timed corner blitz, as Tre’Davious White had a free shot at Tagovailoa in the backfield. White whiffed and allowed Tagovailoa to get outside the numbers, as everyone remembers. The rest of the rep was a matter of circumstance.
(Courtesy: NFL+)
Not only did the Bills call a blitz, but they sent dime backer Cam Lewis as one of their rushers, while dropping defensive end Joey Bosa into coverage. That meant the Bills were down two of their usual defensive backs. On the rep, Jaylen Waddle ran a clear-out route that rightfully took the attention of the deep middle defender. Bernard, who would normally turn and locate a nearby target as we saw earlier, took away the tight end on the play. It all allowed Hill to slip into space from the backside, and Tagovailoa threw across his body with ample space to make it work. This rep was the correct process, but one missed tackle undid the whole operation.
Result: First down
Attempt 8: 3rd-and-10, 1:48, second quarter
The Bills had this attempt mostly covered up. Taron Johnson made a good read from a deeper drop to get to Hill well before the first down marker. Hill was also bracketed by Bernard four yards short of a first down. Hill took one move backwards, Bernard slipped as he tried to react to staying in front, and all of a sudden, Hill had open space to get the seven extra yards. They needed Bernard to make that play.
Result: First down
Attempt 9: 3rd-and-7, 0:47, second quarter
The Bills provided a good initial rush off the edges from Bosa and A.J. Epenesa that forced Tagovailoa to step into the pocket, but the rookie Sanders couldn’t get off his one-on-one block to bring him down. The quarterback was then staring down a target to the defensive left side, and Bernard played the hunch to sprint from his middle zone area to make the stop to the usual go-to under duress, De’Von Achane. With the Bills unable to bring Tagovailoa down, he instead tucked the ball and scrambled toward Bernard’s vacated area.
(Courtesy: NFL+)
Though this play could have been bigger, as Waddle uncovered on a deep post corner and was wide open just ahead of the end zone, which would have been an easy touchdown, and Bishop didn’t recognize it until way too late. Fortunately for him, Tagovailoa didn’t recognize it either, and scrambled for the first down.
Result: First down
Attempt 10: 3rd-and-3, 0:17, second quarter
A good initial rush by Bosa off the defensive left side forced a quick throw to Hill short of the first down marker. Bishop read the play initially, though rather than charging at Hill to make a hit behind the sticks, he instead slowed down two yards past the marker to keep Hill in front of him, and then Bishop missed the tackle attempt on top of it.
Result: First down
Attempt 11: 3rd-and-11, 9:01, third quarter
On a well-covered play, Tagovailoa tried a deep shot to Hill that had way too much air under it, allowing both Benford and safety Taylor Rapp to help force the incompletion. DaQuan Jones helped force the throw by breaking through his block to force the turnover-worthy throw.
Result: Incomplete, forced punt
Attempt 12: 3rd-and-5, 5:47, third quarter
Epenesa put a great initial bull rush to force his blocker into the pocket. Tagovailoa tried to roll to his left, but the Bills ran Taron Johnson as one of the four rushers off the edge, and the free-running Johnson contained Tagovailoa. Rather than continuing to run, the quarterback instead heaved one to the sideline that went incomplete.
Result: Forced punt
Attempt 13: 3rd-and-14, 15:00, then 4th-and-4, 14:16, fourth quarter
I lumped these two together because it was clear the Dolphins were going for it on fourth down, no matter what, and used their third-down lateral play to make fourth down more manageable. Fourth down was more of a concern. The Bills, a zone-based team, tried to mix in man coverage on fourth down — but without rushing more than four at Tagovailoa. Some pre-snap motion signaled to the Dolphins that it was man, and the Waddle matchup against White was one to exploit, as Waddle is the far quicker player. The quick crosser through some traffic yielded easy separation and a quick first down. Without a blitzer, it was an interesting call to say the least.
Result: First down
Attempt 14: 3rd-and-8, 6:36, fourth quarter
The Bills, back in zone coverage this time with a couple of delayed blitzers sent at Tagovailoa, saw White keep backing up into off coverage without someone immediately over the top to help him out. Rather than risk getting burned deep by the speedy Waddle, White wound up three yards past the first down marker. Waddle ran a great route that prevented White from closing on him, and a perfect pass thrown before Waddle’s break to the sideline brought an easy completion.
Result: First down
Attempt 15: 3rd-and-4, 4:40, fourth quarter
As Benford ran deep along with Hill, Bishop rushed down after his snap from his safety perch to patrol the widest right part of the second level of their zone. In the middle of the play, Cam Lewis appeared to motion to Bishop to get wider so that Lewis could patrol the middle.
(Courtesy: NFL+)
Bishop hesitated ever so slightly, and instead the Bills had two zone defenders pretty much in the same spot. Waddle had yards of separation as he ran a yard past the first-down marker toward the sideline, bringing them another quick, easy completion on third down.
Result: First down
(Courtesy: NFL+)
Zooming out: a macro look at the Bills’ third-down struggles
When you sit back and analyze each of the individual breakdowns, several commonalities emerge. Over half of the missed third and fourth-down opportunities were a direct result of a young and inexperienced player being at the fulcrum of the play. The primary trio that seemed responsible was Walker, Sanders and Bishop — all of whom are in their first season of real, down-in and down-out experience. The Bills need all three to be better, unquestionably. With Walker, we saw the young player’s volatility result in a tremendous individual play late in the game to help force the game-clinching interception, along with some other good reps. Sanders’ role will likely get smaller upon Ed Oliver’s return, while the Bills will hope that Bishop comes along as the season progresses — and to their credit, Bishop had a good game against the Jets.
On the bright side, these are three relatively inexperienced players who will presumably improve as the season goes on and as they get more comfortable in their individual roles. There is a chance that these early-season issues of younger players will slowly dissipate by the time the playoffs arrive. That’s what the Bills are likely banking on, too.
There were some veteran individual mistakes mixed in, too, as Bernard and White both had some regrettable reps during the get-off-the-field chances. While Bernard needs to be better at getting off blocks in general, there wasn’t enough there to be overwhelmingly concerned in this game from him. The good news is that it wasn’t complete schematic breakdowns or just a complete lack of pressure that did the Bills in, but rather some individual errors that appear fixable at the current moment. The Bills also will have some key rotational players like defensive end Michael Hoecht, defensive tackle Larry Ogunjobi, some practice squad veterans like Jordan Phillips and Jordan Poyer available, in addition to rookie cornerback Maxwell Hairston, who could mix in at some point.
Are the Bills going to be a shutdown defense in 2025? That’s a questionable premise, given some of the personnel issues. However, especially considering how well they played on first and second down, their ceiling capabilities are higher than what they exhibited last week on third downs. This may simply be a part of the rollercoaster ride of using several inexperienced players — a work in progress that we’re seeing play out each week of the season. Should it continue into November and December, then the Bills may need to consider some personnel changes, but they’re likely not anywhere close to considering that yet.
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