The Athletic: Bills mock offseason: Free agents, draft plans, and trade markets

[HipKat]

Bills mock offseason: Free agents, draft plans, and trade markets

The championship window is wide open for the Bills and that will impact their offseason moves.

www.nytimes.com

The 2025 NFL Combine is just days away, and it remains one of the most informative weeks of the entire offseason. It’s when teams start to get an idea of both the free agent and trade markets, two places the Bills could tap into relatively soon.​

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After a slightly unexpected return to the AFC Championship Game, general manager Brandon Beane will try to push the Bills over the top and into the Super Bowl. The Bills know they’re close, and with franchise quarterback Josh Allen entering his age-29 season, it adds even more motivation to pry open the winning window even wider.​

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But what will they do to push them past their previous playoff ceiling? The offseason is rife with potential decisions. Armed with some relatively easy-to-find cap space and a bevy of draft picks, while also balancing their in-house free agents in 2026, what moves will the Bills make?​

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As is our annual tradition, we attempt to project how the Bills could approach the next two months in a full-scale mock offseason that includes veteran cuts, restructures, free-agency signings, trades and draft picks. Plus, a running log of cap space to show the feasibility of the moves.​

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Let’s get started.​

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Bills cap space to begin the exercise: -$10.13 million​

The NFL informed teams that the 2025 salary cap would fall between $277.5 and $281.5 million, so for this exercise, we split the difference and put it at $279.5 million. The -$10.13 million hole is far smaller than what the Bills had to deal with last offseason before cutting all their big-name veterans to clear cap space.​

Bills depth chart before mock offseason​

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Note: The offseason salary cap uses the team’s top 51 cap hits, which factor into how much cap room new contracts will take off the books. For example, if the Bills sign a player with a $1 million cap hit, you subtract the 51st-highest cap hit (e.g. $800,000) from the $1 million, equaling an additional $200,000 on this year’s cap from the new contract. All contract information comes from Over the Cap.​

Draft Pick Allotment​

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It’s important to note that the picks do not hit the salary cap until the rookie deals are signed, so we won’t factor them into the cap until the end of the exercise when the cap expands to the Top 53. However, it’s wise to keep the amount in consideration for offseason dealings. Only the Bills’ top seven picks would qualify for their current Top 53, so putting those seven in and taking out the lowest five deals would yield a projected allotment of $4.09 million.​

Pay cut before free agency​

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EDGE Von Miller​

Although the instant reaction to a rotational pass rusher with a $23.8 million cap hit is to cut him, getting him to agree to a pay cut makes far more sense. Even if the Bills cut him and save the $8.4 million, Miller would still have a $15.4 million dead cap hit and the Bills would be out a usable pass rusher at a major position of need. When on the field, Miller put good reps together. He also just took a pay cut last year when he didn’t have to due to guaranteed money. This year, he doesn’t have any guaranteed money, putting the Bills in a position of power. If they offered him more guaranteed money than he would get on the open market as a 36-year-old pass rusher, while eclipsing the amount they would get to cut him, that’s a win-win scenario. In this case, I had Miller taking a $10 million pay cut — meaning $10 million in cap savings. It would guarantee him over $7 million this season, a perfectly reasonable amount for an effective pass-rush specialist. In 2026, the Bills could then cut Miller and save over $17 million on their cap.​

Cap room after the move: -$127,105​

Restructures before free agency​

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A necessary piece of every offseason for the Bills is contract restructures, which are basically simple conversions of higher base salaries and due roster bonuses into a prorated signing bonus to spread out those cap amounts over a longer term and giving short-term relief. Restructures should be reserved for players in the Bills’ long-term plans, not ones they would consider moving on from as early as 2026. With the better-than-expected salary cap increase, they don’t have to do as many of these this offseason.​

• QB Josh Allen — No void years added, saves $11.06 million
• LT Dion Dawkins — No void years added, saves $10.44 million
• DT Ed Oliver — No void years added, saves $8.63 million

Cap room after the moves: $30.03 million​

Players under contract to move before free agency​

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Release P Sam Martin​

Martin turns 35 at the end of February, is entering the final year of his contract and has a $500,000 roster bonus due just a few days after the start of the new league year on March 12. Of 34 qualifying punters with 20 or more punts, he had only the 20th-best punting average and the 27th-best net average. The Bills also may have tipped their hand by signing Jake Camarda, a fourth-round pick in 2022 who spent two-plus years as the Buccaneers punter. They could also use a late-round pick on a punter. It’s their chance to get better and cheaper at the position.​

Cap room after the move: $31.05 million
(OT Travis Clayton added to Top 51)​

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Trade CB Kaiir Elam​

Three years into his career, the Bills have their answer on Elam. He’s not a starter in their scheme, and his reliability when called upon in 2024 was likely not what they wanted. A change of scenery for Elam, giving the Bills a chance to save some cap room and recoup a small asset, could be the best for all parties. If they could get a late-round pick in 2026, they should do so and find depth elsewhere.​

Cap room after the move: $32.77 million
(CB Daequan Hardy added to Top 51)​

 

[HipKat]

Internal free agents​

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2025 Bills free agents

Re-sign CB Rasul Douglas​

Although Douglas wasn’t as impactful in 2024 as he was following his midseason acquisition in 2023, that doesn’t mean he was a bad player last season. With the amount he likes to take chances, it’s unlikely for Douglas to go another season without forcing an interception. He is a trustworthy starter and has a strong relationship with top cornerback Christian Benford. The Bills are in a position to need an offseason move for a starting cornerback. A one-year, $10 million agreement to have Douglas as an above-average starter and bridge to their long-term starter is a logical step. Two void years were added to lower the 2025 cap hit to $7 million.​

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Cap room after the move: $26.62 million
(CB Daequan Hardy removed from Top 51)​

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Re-sign WR Mack Hollins​

Hollins became their most trusted wide receiver down the stretch and a critical piece to the locker room. Even if his role won’t be the same and he’ll mostly be the fourth receiver, bringing the 31-year-old Hollins back for one more season makes a great deal of sense. Given that he turns 32 in September, a fully guaranteed one-year, $3 million deal makes sense for both sides.​

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Cap room after the move: $24.49 million
(OT Travis Clayton removed from Top 51)​

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Re-sign RB Ty Johnson​

Even with James Cook desiring a big contract, bringing back Johnson for the same three-player running back room should be a priority if Johnson doesn’t cash in elsewhere. And given the depth of running backs in the 2025 draft class, free agent runners may struggle to find their desired paydays. With the hope to cash in during the 2026 offseason, a one-year, $2.25 million deal with Johnson is a logical step for both player and team.​

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Cap room after the move: $23.2 million
(TE Armani Rogers removed from Top 51)​

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Re-sign FB Reggie Gilliam​

Gilliam’s offensive importance grew as the season went on. He’s already one of their best special teams players and only turns 28 in August. The contract is a modest three-year, $8 million deal that pays most of his money over the first two years, with a $2.34 million cap hit in 2025 and an easy out in 2027.​

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Cap room after the move: $21.82 million
(KR/PR Brandon Codrington removed from Top 51)​

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Re-sign LS Reid Ferguson​

Especially if they change out their punter, the Bills would likely want to keep the other two pieces of their special teams trio the same. Ferguson has been on a veteran minimum deal recently, continuing with this one-year, $1.255 million deal.​

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Cap room after the move: $21.53 million
(LB Joe Andreessen removed from Top 51)​

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Re-sign TE Quintin Morris​

A noted special teams asset and an underrated backup tight end, the restricted free agent Morris would make sense to give a one-year contract to this offseason. This would be a one-year, $2 million deal.​

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Cap room after the move: $20.49 million
(DT Zion Logue removed from Top 51)​

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[HipKat]

External offseason additions​

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Trade for DE Myles Garrett​

This marquee mock offseason move was made not because most fans want it to happen. It was made because the Bills have the outstanding need for a game-changing defender, the motivation to make the move while Allen’s prime window is open, the necessary cap space, the draft resources and the winning team to satisfy Garrett’s desire to play for a Super Bowl. Why is this the right move for the Bills right now, and paying the necessary cost to do so?​

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The move is actually perfect in every way you look at it. The Bills predicate their entire defensive scheme on the ability to win with their front four. However, they haven’t had that consistently dominant player doing so outside of 2022, Von Miller’s first season in Buffalo before he suffered a season-ending torn ACL. The Bills talked about needing a game-wrecker on defense, and that game-wrecker does not exist on their roster as it’s currently constructed. Projecting Greg Rousseau to get there eventually is a dangerous game to play, especially when he hasn’t gotten to that level in four years, and the Bills would likely have to pay him a huge contract to see if he can get there. Garrett takes the guesswork out of it and pairs an in-prime defensive star on the same timeline as their star and franchise quarterback. Both Garrett and Allen will be in their age-29 season in 2025. Garrett helps Rousseau, Oliver, the defensive secondary, and, in turn, the offense by giving them shortened fields and limiting what the opponents can do on offense.​

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The cost is a big one — two first-round picks plus more and likely doling out a massive contract to him at some point. But if Garrett is the player he’s been his entire career, giving up the No. 30 selection plus wherever their 2026 pick lands will be more than worth it considering all of the other picks they have in 2025. Players like this do not become available often, especially not ones that still haven’t turned 30. And if it does happen, it usually doesn’t happen when your franchise knocks on the door of the Super Bowl with the cap space to make it all go. They also know he can thrive when the weather is at its worst, as he’s played on the shores of Lake Erie his entire career. This is a star-aligning scenario for the Bills, and one that makes all the sense in the world for them to target.​

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Trade details
Buffalo receives: DE Myles Garrett, 2026 5th round, 2027 7th round
Cleveland receives: No. 30, 2026 1st round, 2027 4th round, DE A.J. Epenesa​

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Moving Epenesa clears out $3.3 million on the cap to help the move, but the necessary next step is to immediately restructure Garrett’s deal to create more short-term cap space. His 2025 cap hit is $19.8 million, and converting most of it to a prorated signing bonus would save $14.8 million. The Bills then get the immediate flexibility to add more pieces to the team and the time to negotiate a long-term deal with their new star pass rusher.​

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Cap room after the move: $18.86 million​

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Sign WR Hollywood Brown​

If you build it, they will come. With an addition like Garrett to the defensive side, plus a need for a potential number-one receiver, this is an ideal situation for Brown to walk into another Super Bowl contender after playing in only two regular season games in 2024. And for the Bills, it’s an ideal cost situation to add the type of receiver with speed and separation that can help their offense dramatically if he remains healthy. Plus, Brown only turns 28 in June. He could be a potential home run signing on a two-year, $18 million deal with heavy incentives for both seasons should he hit and a relatively easy out in 2026 if he doesn’t.​

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Hollywood Brown mock offseason contract

Cap room after the move: $13.55 million
(WR Tyrell Shavers removed from Top 51)​

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Sign DE Derek Barnett​

After moving Epenesa out in the Garrett deal, the Bills need to round out their defensive end room with a rotational right defensive end. Barnett was efficient for Houston last season, generating only one fewer sack (5) than Epenesa (6) despite having 153 fewer pass-rushing snaps than Epenesa. Barnett’s pressure rate (8.4 percent) was also better than both Dawuane Smoot (6.9 percent) and Epenesa (5.8 percent). It’s a one-year, $4.5 million deal for Barnett with no void years.​

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Cap room after the move: $10.01 million
(TE Zach Davidson removed from Top 51)​

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2025 NFL Draft​

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Picks remaining after offseason dealings: Nos. 56, 62, 107*, 130*, 170*, 173*, 176*, 203*, 205*​

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*Estimated due to compensatory picks having yet to be announced​

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The pick at No. 56: CB Darien Porter, Iowa State​

Re-signing Douglas for one year buys the Bills a year of development at an important position, but even with Douglas, they need an investment to pair with Benford for the long term. Porter (6-foot-2, 197 pounds) is best suited to a zone-heavy defensive scheme like the one the Bills employ, and has the long arms (over 33 inches) that the team prefers. Porter has a similar lanky stature to Douglas, and Douglas is eager to teach, giving Porter a chance to learn a lot from Douglas in one year together. In the meantime, Porter would provide depth that is better suited to the team’s defensive scheme and special teams skills, making him potentially active every week. In 2026, the ideal scenario is for Benford and Porter to be the starters.​

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The pick at No. 62: DT Jordan Phillips, Maryland​

The Bills couldn’t go into a season without a Jordan Phillips on their roster, could they? Jokes aside, this is a great fit for the type of player they should be looking for. Phillips (6-foot-3, 320 pounds) is a run-stuffing one-technique with starting potential in 2026 and beyond after DaQuan Jones is out of contract. For now, he can learn from Jones and round out their defensive tackle rotation.​

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The pick at No. 107: LB Chris Paul Jr., Ole Miss​

Paul Jr. represents a pick with three objectives. The first and most immediate is an improvement over the oft-injured Baylon Spector with their depth at middle linebacker behind Bernard, and Spector would immediately be on the roster bubble. The second is an insurance plan for the Bills should they decide to move on from Bernard after his rookie deal expires in March of 2026, putting an instinctive player with potential in their system for a year. The third is him retaining value in 2025 on special teams, potentially becoming a core piece of the puzzle for the entirety of his rookie deal should the team re-sign Bernard. There are multiple outs to make this pick work.​

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The pick at No. 130: EDGE Oluwafemi Oladejo, UCLA​

With Rousseau and Barnett all out of contract after 2025, and Miller a likely cap cut in 2026, it would be wise to have another edge rusher with potential on the roster. Oladejo switched to edge rusher only last year, but he has some real potential and the length the Bills covet in edge rushers. Getting a year to learn from a bevy of accomplished pass rushers in Garrett, Miller, Rousseau and Barnett will be extremely valuable, but Miller would be the top draw, as the two have similar body types and are athletically very comparable. If one of Oladejo or Javon Solomon could show some starting potential for 2026, that would be the ideal scenario. Oladejo is also a noted special teams player.​

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Trade!​

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Bills receive Nos. 132 and 245 from Lions for Nos. 170 and 176.​

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The pick at No. 132: S Billy Bowman Jr., Oklahoma​

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Rather than wait around, the Bills cashed in a late fifth and an early sixth-round pick to move up for a safety who has both down-the-line starting potential and special teams ability that can help his first-year role. They could then find out if Bowman would be able to be their starter in 2026 or 2027 for Taylor Rapp.​

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The pick at No. 173: G Connor Colby, Iowa​

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With both Connor McGovern and David Edwards on expiring contracts after 2025, adding another piece to their interior offensive line makes some sense. Colby has been a guard only in college but has experience on both the left and right sides. To make room for Colby, the Bills could either keep 10 offensive linemen or cut bubble player Ryan Van Demark.​

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The pick at No. 203: WR Ricky White III, UNLV​

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Brown brings speed and experience, but having another speed and deep option at receiver as his understudy would be worthwhile. That’s where the electric White comes in. He would round out the receiver room as their sixth player and backup Z-receiver.​

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The pick at No. 205: QB Kurtis Rourke, Indiana​

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This is a 2026 play when Mitchell Trubisky and Mike White are free agents. Rourke had ACL surgery in January, which likely knocks him out of the entire 2025 season. That allows the Bills to stash Rourke on an injured list during 2025 without counting toward the active roster and getting a good developmental quarterback in the building for a year to potentially be their long-term backup.​

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The pick at No. 245: P Jeremy Crawshaw, Florida​

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Drafting a punter late to compete with Camarda gives the Bills the option to have a good punter on a cost-controlled four-year contract rather than paying a punter an above-market amount. And it gives us another #Puntapalooza to track, which is the best part of all.​

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Draft pick adjustments​

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After all of the Bills offseason dealings, only their top three picks — Nos. 56, 62 and 107 — get added to the Bills cap sheet. Usually signed in the late spring or early summer, teams start looking at it as the Top 53 contracts hitting the cap. It subtracted approximately $2.53 million from the cap.​

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Cap room after draft pick adjustment: $7.43 million​

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Contract extensions to consider before or during the season​

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DE Myles Garrett — This seems like a must with the Bills trading what they did for him in this exercise. There are several cap-saving cuts they can make in 2026 to make it go. Garrett and Allen will be the 1-2 punch for the next several seasons.​

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QB Josh Allen — The new contract for Allen should be on the horizon within the next year, given that he’s now underpaid by positional standards.​

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CB Christian Benford — Of the upcoming 2026 free agents, Benford is easily the most important given the position he plays and how good he is. This is a deal the Bills should work to get done before the season.​

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WR Khalil Shakir — Signing Shakir to a relatively modest contract extension, given his sub-850-yard production in 2024, should be something the Bills look to get done either before or a month or two into the season.​

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See how things play out with DE Greg Rousseau, LB Terrel Bernard and RB James Cook — There’s no need to rush things with these three due to the presence of Garrett for Rousseau’s future, and Bernard and Cook playing non-premium positions. A wait-and-see approach is the ideal play.​

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Bills depth chart after mock offseason​

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[sukie]

a lot of this hinges on the notion that Bills won’t be outbid for Garrett