Bills notebook: Is Sunday Josh Allen’s final MVP statement? How much does seeding matter?
Considering Lamar Jackson's performance on Christmas Day, Josh Allen and the Bills might want to make a statement Sunday in the MVP race.
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When the Buffalo Bills take on the New York Jets this weekend at Highmark Stadium, the team can take all the guesswork out of the Week 18 finale in New England. The 12-3 Bills have the chance to get to the 13-win mark for only the fifth time in franchise history, and it would be the third time under current head coach Sean McDermott.
On top of that, after getting some clarity about the No. 1 seed during the week, the Bills now control the rest of their destiny in maximizing their playoff path. But how much does that mean to the team, and how does the looming MVP award factor into this weekend’s contest?
Here’s our Week 17 Bills notebook.
How much does the No. 2 vs. the No. 3 seed matter to the Bills?
As we reach the end of the season, the age-old debate creeps up for playoff-bound teams. They must ask themselves how much seeding matters versus going into the postseason with a relatively healthy roster. With the Chiefs clinching the No. 1 seed on Wednesday, it erased all hopes the Bills had of securing a first-round bye and home-field advantage throughout the playoffs. And while the Chiefs’ win also meant that the Steelers couldn’t catch the Bills, the Ravens’ Wednesday victory over the Texans kept Baltimore within range of the Bills’ hold on the No. 2 seed. The Ravens would need to win next week, while the Bills would have to lose their next two games to flip in seeding.It also creates an opportunity for the Bills if they want it. Theoretically, they can rest most of their starters for the next two weeks before their wild-card matchup to be as healthy as possible for that game. That all depends on how much the Bills value having the No. 2 spot, which would secure a home game in the divisional round as opposed to potentially playing a road game as No. 3. Regardless of the benefits of getting a two-week opportunity to rest their key players, it would be a pretty big surprise for several reasons if the Bills would actually rest players this week.
The first is the most obvious benefit to playing all their top players against the Jets this weekend. The Bills highly value having as many games come through Orchard Park as possible. After thoroughly dismantling the 49ers on Sunday Night Football in Week 13, Bills quarterback Josh Allen talked openly about their goal of obtaining the AFC’s top seed. The week off surely had something to do with it, but the primary motivation was to have each round of the playoffs come through Orchard Park, where the Bills would be undefeated this season with a win on Sunday. There’s also a likely component of wanting to right the wrongs of the last two postseasons, which ended with a loss at Highmark Stadium, first to the Bengals two years ago and again last year to the Chiefs. Allen confirmed the motivation on Thursday, calling the No. 2 seed the team’s number one priority.
Secondly, McDermott has long been a proponent of having his core players be mentally on top of their game, either in a preseason or end-of-season resting scenario. He has not shied away from playing his best players in either situation, at least in the early goings of games, to keep them mentally sharp when the intensity ratchets up. McDermott has softened on those decisions recently. Especially in 2024, the Bills have erred on the side of caution with just about all of their injury decisions. Even with McDermott not being as firm on that stance, expecting him and the Bills to have the team rest their top players for two straight weeks is not a likely scenario.
AFC Playoff Picture
| Seeding | Team |
|---|---|
| 1 |  Kansas City Chiefs |
| 2 |  Buffalo Bills |
| 3 |  Baltimore Ravens |
| 4 |  Houston Texans |
| 5 |  Pittsburgh Steelers |
| 6 |  Los Angeles Chargers |
| 7 |  Denver Broncos |
Lastly, while this isn’t one of their primary motivators, they appear to be on a crash course with the Ravens in the divisional round, unless the Bills lose in the wild-card round, the Ravens unexpectedly lose to the 3-12 Browns in Week 18, or the Ravens lose their wild-card game. The Ravens are the only team that has defeated the Bills this season by more than three points. Baltimore’s 25-point victory over the Bills in Week 4 left a sour taste in the Bills’ mouths, as it’s been the only game this year when they weren’t competitive. That loss happened in Baltimore, and the Bills could get the chance for their revenge on their turf.
A win over the Jets takes all of the variables out of their potential playoff path, for two rounds at least, and should the Chiefs falter in the divisional round, the Bills would have a chance to host the AFC Championship Game. That’s enough motivation to treat this weekend like a typical game week and finish the job before potentially using Week 18 in New England as their bye heading into the playoffs. On top of all that, there may be another big motivator for this weekend’s game.
Is Sunday Josh Allen’s final MVP statement?
As the Bills went through their practice week, they switched up their schedule slightly to have a practice on Tuesday while giving the entire building the day off on Wednesday for Christmas. While it was a time to spend the day with their loved ones, Christmas Day also brought along two NFL games of importance to the Bills. The first was the Chiefs securing the AFC’s top seed. The second was the Ravens winning, and quarterback Lamar Jackson’s performance on an isolated stage making a statement for the Most Valuable Player race. Allen is the betting favorite for his first-ever MVP award, but Wednesday’s showing from Jackson has closed the gap for many.Earning accolades is certainly not Allen’s primary motivation, as he has always stated bringing a world championship to Buffalo is what he desires above all else on the football field. However, winning the MVP award is extremely important to him. It’s important to his teammates. As a group, they all felt slighted last year when Allen’s statistics were better than the awarded 2023 MVP Jackson’s. This year, the argument is reversed, with Jackson having a better statistical season despite, but Allen is playing the most complete football of his career.
Allen has served up multiple MVP-worthy moments at clutch times. And his teammates have stated Allen winning the award is a goal for them this season. But when Jackson helped the Ravens demolish the Texans on Wednesday, the chatter questioning why Allen was the clear favorite for MVP over Jackson grew as loud as it has this season.
If you think Allen isn’t aware of all that noise and simply blocks it all out, I wouldn’t be so sure. He has shown signs throughout his career of being hyper-aware of what’s out there. It has been a slight motivator for him throughout his career in proving people wrong, right from when his NFL journey began. He is football-obsessed and usually watches nationally televised games. With an entire day off Wednesday to take in Jackson’s performance and the subsequent MVP rhetoric, the Bills might have changed their focus for Sunday’s game from playoff seeding to something that means that much more to the entire offense. They want to see Allen be named the MVP because they view it as a reflection of the whole offensive unit.
Do not be surprised if the Bills and Allen try to serve up a statement of their own in hopes of having Sunday double as an MVP coronation for their franchise player. Especially because, with a victory, the Bills seem more likely to rest Allen and their top players in Week 18.
Although Sunday’s game won’t be in the nationally televised bubble that Jackson and the Ravens held this week, disassembling the respected Jets defense to a grand degree would suffice for Buffalo after it limited the Rams’ passing attack to only 110 yards and Los Angeles’ offense to 19 points total a week ago. If Allen and the Bills were looking for something to give them an edge on a relatively mild weather day for late December, the MVP chatter has served it to them on a platter.
Defensive help on the way?
The Bills went into the matchup against the Patriots down four defensive starters as the team pieced its way through in a narrow victory. That group included linebacker Matt Milano, cornerback Rasul Douglas and starting safeties Taylor Rapp and Damar Hamlin, but the good news for the Bills is they may not have to head into this weekend’s contest that shorthanded again.Douglas was estimated as a full participant in practice Wednesday and was a full-go during Thursday’s session. Douglas getting full participation early in the week is a promising sign for his return, which would shift Kaiir Elam back to the bench.
Milano also went through his usual practice pattern during Thursday’s session, which is an equally good sign for his return. Plus, with both safeties practicing, it would not be a shock if the Bills get at least one of their two starters back for this game. Rapp is dealing with a neck injury while Hamlin has a ribs injury, but the Hamlin injury caught them by surprise a couple of weeks ago as to its severity. Although with both as limited participants and in non-contact jerseys, I slightly favor Rapp’s chances of playing more than Hamlin’s.
Bills CB Rasul Douglas (knee) was a full practice participant Wednesday and Thursday. (Katelyn Mulcahy / Getty Images)
Milano has had limited action since returning from a long-term injury, so getting him back on the field would go a long way if the team is intent on resting its starters during Week 18. That’s a big if, because the Bills have to follow through and win on Sunday. But that piece of the puzzle must be considered if the players are close to a return. And indisputably, the Bills possibly getting three starters back would enhance their odds of securing the AFC’s No. 2 seed.
Projected practice squad elevations: WR K.J. Hamler, DE Kingsley Jonathan
Projected inactives vs. Jets: WR Curtis Samuel, OT Tylan Grable, DE Kingsley Jonathan, DT DeWayne Carter, LB Nicholas Morrow, CB Kaiir Elam, S Damar Hamlin
(**Subject to change following Friday’s practice)
Prediction: Bills 41, Jets 20
Although the Jets have played competitively of late, this matchup and the Bills’ motivation behind it is ripe for them to cure some of their offensive woes from the previous week. The Allen MVP factor is real, and I’d expect the offense to look to help him make one last statement to voters. While the Jets allowed only 19 points to the Rams last weekend, their five prior matchups yielded 27 points on average to their opponents. In the Bills’ final home game of the year — mixed with good enough December weather and the external motivation to finish the year with an exclamation point and secure the No. 2 seed — the offense should be able to put up points in bunches.Defensively, the Bills may have difficulty limiting the current renaissance with long-time teammates Aaron Rodgers and Davante Adams. Over his last three games, Adams has 25 receptions for 375 yards and four touchdowns, and it isn’t only him, as Garrett Wilson has 16 catches for 224 yards over that span. The Bills have had difficulties stopping teams through the air in recent games, and even with Douglas’ potential return, Rodgers, Adams, Wilson and the Jets should be pressed enough by the Bills offense to put up some points of their own.
Ultimately, this game has the makings of being a smooth-sailing victory for the Bills to secure their biggest team goal of clinching the AFC’s No. 2 seed and putting their best foot forward to helping Allen secure his first-ever MVP award.