Bills vs. Patriots and four more Week 15 games that will have massive impact on playoff races
An impactful Week 15 slate features five games that could go a long way in deciding division-winners and the No. 1 seed in each conference.
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Bills QB Josh Allen faces off against Patriots QB Drake Maye in an AFC East battle this weekend. Bryan M. Bennett / Getty Images
We have arrived at Week 15 of the NFL season, so we are finally finished with bye weeks, which means every team in the league will now have a weekly say in how the rest of the season plays out.
This week’s slate features five games that will go a long way in helping shape how these tight playoff races unfold. However, it’s not just playoff berths at stake here. We’re going to be watching games that will heavily influence division races, as well as the battle for the top seeds in both conferences, as teams vie for the coveted first-round bye and home-field advantage throughout the playoffs.
As we have in the past few weeks, we’ll turn to The Athletic’s Playoff Simulator, powered by my NFL Projection Model, to give us a look at just how much leverage these games have when it comes to playoff positioning. And there is no better place to start than with the Kansas City Chiefs, whose playoff hopes are on life support heading into the week.
Source: NFL Playoff Simulator
At this point, there isn't much else to say about the Chiefs: They need to win out to have a realistic shot at the playoffs. And while they're technically not eliminated with a loss, their path is essentially a coin flip. So when it comes to this Sunday, it's simply: Beat the Chargers, root for the Cardinals to beat the Texans, and the Jets to beat the Jaguars. Easy enough, right? But seriously, just winning out only gives the Chiefs a 47 percent chance to make the playoffs. They're going to need plenty of help, and they need to start getting it this week.
After their win against the Eagles on Monday night, the Chargers have put themselves in good position to make the playoffs at 78 percent. A win over the Chiefs doesn't clinch anything, but it pushes them to 95 percent. They'd have to feel pretty good about their chances at that point, even with a tough final three games against the Cowboys, Texans and Broncos. As for a rooting guide across the rest of the league, the Chargers will be rooting heavily against their former hero, quarterback Philip Rivers, who could start for the Colts against Seattle. The Colts have a head-to-head victory over the Chargers from earlier in the season, so an Indy loss would go a long way in helping the Chargers lock up a playoff berth.
As you can see, this one has massive implications in the AFC East. If the Bills lose, the Patriots win the division. But if the Bills win, their divisional odds jump to 24 percent. It wouldn't be an easy path to get to their sixth-straight division crown, but it would be achievable over the final three weeks, especially if they win out. Still, that wouldn't guarantee them anything, as winning out only pushes their odds of winning the AFC East to 40 percent. They would still need some help from New England.
For the Patriots, a win means their first division title since Tom Brady's final season in New England (2019). However, there's more at stake than that. My model currently projects the Patriots as the favorite to secure the top seed in the AFC at 49 percent, but a loss would drop those odds to just 29 percent. For a Patriots rooting guide, you're all going to be cheeseheads this weekend. A Patriots win paired with a Packers win over the Broncos would see New England's odds of winning the No. 1 seed jump to 79 percent.
While this may be a non-divisional game, it comes with just as much impact as the games we've already covered. For the Broncos, a win would push them to 55 percent to earn the AFC's top seed, while a loss drops them to 24 percent. Of course, the No. 1 seed is the secondary goal behind first winning the AFC West. They can't clinch this weekend, but a win against the Packers would push their odds from 87 percent to 94 percent. And if the Broncos win is paired with a Chargers loss, their odds shoot up to 98 percent.
The Packers are in a similar boat to the Broncos, though they're not sitting quite as pretty as their opponents this week. The Packers are only at 68 percent to win their division (NFC North), but a win pushes those odds up to 80 percent. The No. 1 seed isn't out of reach for them either, as they're currently at 10 percent, and a win puts them at 18 percent. For divisional sakes, the Packers and their fans should be rooting for the Browns to upset the Bears, and for the Rams to take down quarterback Jared Goff and the Lions.
The Lions will experience a 30-point swing in their playoff odds depending on whether they win or lose this Sunday. However, winning out isn't their only path to the playoffs, as they'll still have a shot if they lose one more the rest way. In fact, dropping this Rams game would actually be the best one to lose (if they're going to lose one).
Falling to the Rams and winning out still puts the Lions at 95 percent to make the playoffs, so it's not quite panic time for Lions fans. Speaking of which, they should be rooting heavily for Cleveland. The Browns beating the Bears would help the Lions' playoff odds to the tune of 11 percent. After that, small gains are made with victories by the Colts, Broncos, Titans and Vikings.
The Rams are already pretty much a lock for the playoffs, but a win would make it official. The division and No. 1 seed become the focus now, as they currently have a 57 percent chance to win the NFC West and a 48 percent chance to grab the NFC's top seed. They're not close to clinching either, but a win this week is critical if they want to remain the frontrunners. A loss drops their division and top-seed odds to 39 percent and 27 percent, respectively. As for a rooting guide, the Colts, Titans and Broncos are where the allegiances of Rams fans should be.
The Colts are maybe the hardest team to project in the NFL right now after they signed Philip Rivers to the practice squad this week. I don't expect much from Rivers or any other healthy quarterback on the Colts roster the rest of the way. No matter how you cut it, their playoff hopes are dire, with just a 20 percent chance to make it. The Colts are also double-digit underdogs this weekend in Seattle. Losing this weekend and winning out would still have them in a good spot, but they can't count on that with tough remaining games against the 49ers, Jaguars and Texans. If Rivers and the Colts can find magic — and maybe the fountain of youth while they're at it — the rooting guide is as follows for this weekend: Cardinals and Chiefs.
The Seahawks might be the second-best team in the NFL, but as it stands, they're staring down a road playoff game in the deep NFC. Their playoff odds are at 99 percent, so there isn't much to worry about there, but winning the division would be a huge boost to their Super Bowl chances, as they'd be guaranteed at least one home playoff game. For that, of course, they'll be rooting against the Rams and 49ers the rest of the season. A Seahawks win boosts their division odds to 35 percent, and if the Rams were to lose to the Lions on Sunday, the Seahawks would become the division favorite at 50 percent.