In letter to season ticket holders, the Buffalo Sabres sell hope. Who’s buying?
While underscoring how disappointing the season has been, the Sabres spinned the positives and pitched the long view.
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On Thursday, the Buffalo Sabres sent their annual letter to season ticket holders pitching them on renewing their seats for next season.
The timing of the letter wasn’t bad. The Sabres entered Thursday having won six of seven games, including two straight coming out of the NHL’s break for the 4 Nations Face-Off. The Sabres were playing their best stretch of hockey of the season, a good time to sell the fan base on buying in for another year. In the letter, which was signed by Sabres and Bills COO Pete Guelli, the team announced those who locked in their season-ticket renewal by the early-bird deadline would also lock in their price (which implies prices could be going up for everyone else). They also promised discounted concessions for season ticket holders, including a new value menu. The focus then turned to the on-ice product.
“As an organization, we remain steadfast in our belief that we need to build for long-term success,” the letter read. “We believe in the vision and feel we are right on the doorstep of where we want to go.”
You could sell that within the micro view of an 8-2 win over the Rangers on Saturday and a spirited 3-2 comeback win against the Ducks on Tuesday, both at home. The macro view is a lot harder to sell. The Sabres are still in last place in the Eastern Conference and will soon finish a 14th straight season without the playoffs. After coming up just shy of the playoffs two seasons ago, the team took a step back last season. They fired coach Don Granato, replacing him with Lindy Ruff, a franchise legend. General manager Kevyn Adams said playoffs were the expectation. This was sold as a “win now” situation.
But the team struck a different tone in selling the results of this season. While underscoring how disappointing the season has been, Guelli did his best to spin the positives and pitch the long view.
“It took some time at the start of the season to adjust to a new system, but as the year has gone on, players have adapted well to the schemes Lindy (Ruff) has put in place,” the letter read. “Our scoring has improved significantly, currently leading the league in first period goals and with overall 5-on-5 scoring being amongst the top of the league. The penalty kill has taken massive steps and we are winning at home. Young players have continued to flourish while still showing consistent signs of growth and our off-season acquisitions are contributing in significant ways.
“Additionally, our team in Rochester is at the top of the AHL and showing promise that our plan to draft and develop our own players will pay off in the long term. That said, we know that it has not been enough and that we need to keep developing our players and building the roster so we can compete at a playoff level. Kevyn, Lindy, and their staffs are working tirelessly in an effort to improve our team. They will continue to evaluate any and every option until we can consistently compete at a playoff level, and are committed to finishing this season strong.”
There’s plenty of truth to these words. The Sabres are second in the NHL in five-on-five goals per 60 minutes. They are leading the league in first-period goals and first-period goal differential. But they have a .514 win percentage when scoring first, 30th in the NHL. I would contend the “massive” steps the team has taken on the penalty kill might be overstated considering the team is 20th in the NHL in that category, but it is an improvement over last season. The young players flourishing and offseason acquisitions contributing in significant ways is, at best, partially true. Guelli’s letter also noted, “We are proud of how the team has performed at home this season.” The Sabres have the 17th-best points percentage in the league at home.
This is a much different message than the one Terry Pegula delivered in a letter to season ticket holders in 2018 when he wrote, “When we decided to go through our rebuild, the expectation was that we would be competing for a playoff spot by now. That simply hasn’t happened. I bear my share of responsibility. Mistakes have been made along the way, but I am not here to rehash those or make excuses. I’m here to tell you I watch the games, too, and the standard of the Buffalo Sabres must change.”
Season ticket holders will have to make a decision on locking in that early-bird price by March 17. They’ll get to see how Adams handles the trade deadline and see the team play eight more games. What they won’t see, though, is what offseason changes might happen. Will Adams still be calling the shots on the roster? Will Ruff stick around? What about his assistants? Are there any major changes coming to the roster?
Last offseason, the Sabres sold Ruff, a reworked bottom six, a new scoreboard and a new roof. The Sabres have still been in the bottom five of the league in attendance by average capacity for most of the season, and the 13-game winless streak before the new year didn’t do much to drive up demand for tickets.
Anybody who thinks Buffalo’s passion for hockey has been extinguished should know the market rated highly for the 4 Nations Face-Off final. Based on the percentage share of TV households, Buffalo was third in the country at 17.1 percent of households watching, according to Braylon Breeze. That’s without a single current Sabre on either the United States or Canada roster.
The only thing Sabres fans want to buy at this point is a legitimate reason to believe the on-ice product will be better. Even then, 14 years of scars will make them want to see it materialize before they believe it. We’ll have the full results of our fan survey in the coming days, but the overwhelming majority of the early responses when asked what will make you attend more Sabres games has been, “Winning.”
Games like those home wins over the Rangers and Ducks may still tempt fans to buy in. But the 5-2 loss the Sabres had in Carolina on Thursday night was a sobering snap back to reality. Dylan Cozens fought off the opening faceoff, lost that fight and then the Sabres went down 3-0 in the first 10 minutes of the game. Against a hungry, Stanley Cup-contending team on the road, the Sabres failed to manage the puck or consistently win puck battles. The Hurricanes had 69 percent of the shot attempts and 70 percent of the scoring chances at five-on-five.
The final 25 games will have more ups and downs. And even a late-season push is hard to sell when you’re in a record-long playoff drought. Russ Brandon used to be tasked with spinning the Bills’ 7-9 seasons during their drought the same way. Now Bills tickets sell themselves because the team is a consistent contender. Sabres fans are craving those meaningful games.
Pegula closed his 2018 letter with this: “This may not mean much. Until we win, it is just words. I just want you to know that I’m in it with you.”
Seven years later and with a playoff drought that will soon be twice as long, the Sabres still only have words to sell.
Sabres forward Ryan McLeod has already set a career high for points in a season. (Timothy T. Ludwig / Imagn Images)
Quick hits
1. Ryan McLeod now has a career high with 31 points and still has 26 games to play. He has points in six of his last eight games after a nice play to set up a JJ Peterka goal against the Hurricanes. The Sabres are outscoring opponents 36-30 with McLeod on the ice at five-on-five this season. He’s done all of that while bouncing between different linemates for much of the season.McLeod has also been a key contributor on the penalty kill. Among players with at least 100 minutes of ice time on the penalty kill, McLeod is fourth in the league in on-ice shot attempt share percentage and 10th in the league in on-ice expected goals percentage.
2. Jason Zucker missed Buffalo’s game against the Hurricanes after having limited ice time against the Ducks. That shot he blocked against the Rangers has come with some lingering effects. This is obviously bad timing with the trade deadline around the corner. The Sabres still don’t have Zucker signed to an extension, and if he’s banged up, that could impact his trade market.
3. Tage Thompson got some time back at center the last two games after Jiri Kulich took a puck to the face against the Ducks. Kulich has been playing with a shield after getting stitches in his mouth and got moved to the wing against the Hurricanes. While Thompson’s move to the wing seemed to ignite some offense, he’s at his most valuable to the franchise if he can perform like a true No. 1 center. The Sabres will need to use the end of the season to figure out where Thompson is best and what that means for offseason roster decisions.