Josh Allen of the Buffalo Bills scores a touchdown during the fourth quarter against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers. Bryan M. Bennett / Getty Images
There’s always plenty of time until it’s too late.
Superior NFL quarterbacks play a long time nowadays. Josh Allen is in the final season of his 20s and has many more seasons ahead to reach a Super Bowl and maybe even win a Lombardi Trophy.
As we approach Thanksgiving, however, these Buffalo Bills are regressing. Winners of five straight AFC East crowns, the Bills have an 8 percent chance of catching the New England Patriots this year and a 3 percent chance of earning the No. 1 seed, according to our NFL Playoff Simulator. The Bills likely won’t bid farewell to The Ralph with a playoff game.
The clock on Allen’s career, meanwhile, continues to tick away. He still is transcendent, still battles with a gladiator’s heart, still is a viable champion.
On almost a weekly basis, his career statistics surpass Hall of Fame players. He breaks records and achieves unprecedented feats. His excellence remains unquestioned. We’ve gotten to a point in Allen’s career where we can discuss whether he already owns Hall of Fame credentials if he never plays another down, let alone wins a Super Bowl.
To gauge the juxtaposition of Allen’s unique greatness and the Bills’ championship futility, The Athletic reached out to Hall of Fame selectors for their thoughts.
“If he just stays on even a good trajectory — not an all-world trajectory — he’s going to skate in,” retired Buffalo News reporter and former Hall of Fame selector Mark Gaughan said.
Every year, selectors state the case for candidates who spent the most significant portion of their careers in that market. Gaughan handled the presentations for Bills legends Joe DeLamielleure, James Lofton, Thurman Thomas, Bruce Smith, Andre Reed and Ralph Wilson — zero Super Bowls among them.
“Josh Allen is on such an obvious Hall of Fame track, whether or not he reaches a Super Bowl, in my opinion,” HOF selector and The Athletic senior writer Mike Sando said. “Has he been great enough for long enough to have a strong case right now? I think so, but these are tough exercises.”
Other longtime voters, such as author Rick Gosselin and OutKick senior writer Armando Salguero, assert the lack of a Super Bowl would be difficult to overcome.
“How would I assess whether Josh Allen has done enough to get in the Hall of Fame if his career ended today?” Salguero said. “Let me answer your question with a question: Is Kirk Cousins a Hall of Famer today? Is Matt Ryan? Is Philip Rivers? I would tell you Josh Allen is infinitely more athletic and God-gifted than any of those three. And yet all three have more combined touchdowns than Allen and, like Allen, none won a Super Bowl.”
In a proud city that hasn’t won a major-league championship and has suffered too many sports heartbreaks to count, the idea that Allen might pass through Buffalo without attaining glory is a fear that won’t subside. Whether he retires without a championship as Jim Kelly did or leaves to win it all elsewhere as Dominik Hasek did, these fans have watched similar misery unfold before.
Before opening night, The Athletic explored whether Allen could do it alone. He won last year’s MVP award in large part because his supporting cast was so meager. Baltimore Ravens quarterback Lamar Jackson’s stats were superior, but he also leaned on an all-star cast. Filled with confidence brought by Allen’s singular stature, the Bills boldly bet he could be that monolith again in 2025.
That wager continues to crumble.
“It would be nice to see him with a better supporting cast to help elevate him,” said The Athletic senior writer Dan Pompei, a HOF selector for two decades. “What he does as well as any player in the league is elevate those around him. It would be nice to see that happening in his favor, too.”
Allen, in last week’s loss to the Houston Texans, got hit 12 times while throwing, was sacked eight times and pummeled some more on a few runs. After a late, failed, fourth-down run deep in Texans territory, Allen blurted rhetorically to backup quarterback Mitch Trubisky, “What are we doing?”
Struggling to win despite a quarterback who has finished among the top three in MVP voting three times in his first seven seasons, that’s what.
The Texans pummeled Josh Allen and sacked him eight times.Troy Taormina / Imagn Images
The Pro Football Reference QB Hall of Fame Monitor already ranks Allen one spot ahead of Jim Kelly, and Allen has the most rushing touchdowns in the history of an organization that handed off to league MVPs Cookie Gilchrist, O.J. Simpson and Thurman Thomas.
“Josh Allen hasn’t made the Super Bowl, but you could absolutely say it’s not his fault,” Gaughan said. “He has been unbelievable in the playoffs. In fact, his playoff numbers are arguably better than any quarterback’s playoff numbers through 10 years of their career.
“The onus of the playoff losses has been on the defense, in my view. Regardless of what they’ve done at receiver over the years, the culpability lies with the defense. You watched the games, and you saw how good Josh Allen was. Judge with your eyeball test who the best players on the field were.”
Thirty-six quarterbacks have started at least 10 postseason games. Among the 25 who could be in the Hall of Fame, 17 have been inducted, with Eli Manning a finalist last year. Another two-time Super Bowl winner, Jim Plunkett, was a senior committee semifinalist for the 2026 Hall of Fame class. Not-yet-eligible quarterbacks Tom Brady, Drew Brees, Aaron Rodgers and Patrick Mahomes — and maybe Ben Roethlisberger — will get their first ballots rubber-stamped.
Of that group with double-digit postseason appearances, Allen ranks fifth in passer rating, sixth in completion percentage, 11th in yards per game, 11th in touchdown percentage and first in interception percentage. As a rusher, Allen ranks first in yards, first in yards per game, first in first downs and is tied for second in TDs, one behind Steve Young.
“Steve Young once told me quarterbacks are judged by their jewelry,” Gosselin said.
Warren Moon and Dan Fouts are the only Hall of Fame quarterbacks who didn’t play in a Super Bowl, but they helped revolutionize the game. Fouts piloted the record-breaking Air Coryell offense. Moon, denied early entry to the NFL because he’s Black, dominated the CFL before popularizing the run-and-shoot attack.
“Of all the players at all positions enshrined in Canton,” Gosselin said, “65.5 percent of them won championships. So rings are important, especially at the quarterback position. John Brodie and Roman Gabriel were NFL MVPs but have never even been discussed as Hall of Fame finalists. No rings. Ken Anderson was an NFL MVP and took a team to the Super Bowl, but he also has been left at the doorstep.
“Statistics and honors are important, but championship rings open the door.”
Gosselin has been on the selection committee for 30 years and guessed he has handled 20 to 25 successful presentations, including 1990s Dallas Cowboys pillars Troy Aikman, Emmitt Smith, Michael Irvin, Larry Allen, Charles Haley and owner Jerry Jones, plus several senior committee candidates.
Based on volume, Josh Allen’s regular-season numbers need work. He ranks 61st in career passing yards, 45th in total offense and 42nd in TD passes through 122 games, but he leapfrogs quarterbacks in chunks every couple of weeks. Among those who’ve surpassed 29,000 yards, Allen ranks 13th all time in passer rating, 18th in completion percentage, 12th in touchdown percentage, 15th in interception percentage and 18th in passing yards per game.
Through eight seasons — Allen still has six more games — he needs one more to TD pass to move ahead of Brett Favre for fifth most. The four ahead of him are Mahomes, Peyton Manning, Dan Marino and Russell Wilson.
“Eight years in, Russell Wilson looked like a slam-dunk Hall of Famer,” Gaughan said. “But the end of his career has hurt his chances. Seattle and Denver and Pittsburgh all went out of their way to throw him overboard, decided they didn’t want him.
“Am I going to vote him a Hall of Famer? Three separate teams couldn’t stand to have him anymore? He might still be a Hall of Famer, but there are some blemishes that will make you pause.”
What makes Allen special is his wicked multiplicity.
He already holds the record at 48 games with a rushing and passing touchdown.
In annihilating the Tampa Bay Buccaneers in Week 10, he became the only player in NFL history to run for three TDs and pass for three TDs twice. The only other player to do it even once was Otto Graham in the 1954 NFL title game. He also surpassed Peyton Manning for the most combined touchdowns by a player 30 years old or younger. Allen, still 29, will cushion that record next year.
“This is a different era of football, where the running quarterback is embraced as it never was before,” said Pompei, who successfully presented 1940s and ’50s defender Ed Sprinkle as well as 1980s tackle Jimbo Covert, defensive tackle Steve McMichael and edge rusher Richard Dent and 2000s linebacker Bryan Urlacher and returner Devin Hester.
“Some of those statistical things make Josh Allen different than anyone that’s come previously, but he impacts games like very few players we’ve ever seen. He’s magnificent. I look at a guy who wrecks game plans, who forces opposing coordinators to change what they do, who requires special adjustments or else he’s going to get you.”
As long as touchdowns are worth 6 points, Allen’s leggy diversity cannot be considered a gimmick.
Thirty-six players have rushed for at least 70 touchdowns in the regular season, and among the entire group, Allen’s 5.4 yards per carry is tops, 0.3 yards ahead of Jim Brown despite all those victory-formation losses that pock Allen’s average. He and the retired Cam Newton are the lone quarterbacks on the list, tied for now at 75 touchdowns. That’s more than Earl Campbell, Leroy Kelly and Joe Perry and two behind Tony Dorsett.
Allen is one of only six players to have at least six TD runs through each of his first eight seasons. The others? Brown, Thurman Thomas, Marshall Faulk, LaDainian Tomlinson and Derrick Henry.
Add the postseason, and Allen ranks 25th all time in rushing TDs with 82, one more than Thomas, who played in 60 more regular-season and eight more postseason games than Allen has. Allen is three rushing TDs behind Jim Taylor on the list.
Allen also has been an ironman. His 120 consecutive regular-season starts and 133 straight, including playoffs, are the longest active streaks for quarterbacks, and each streak ranks ninth all time at the position.
Regarding the “If Allen’s career were to end today” hypothetical, Gaughan noted it would matter significantly why Allen stopped playing. Some reasons, such as catastrophic injury, are more laudable than others.
“I would say there’s at least a 90 percent chance — maybe even 97 percent — he’s going to be a Hall of Famer if his career continues with any reasonably good trajectory,” Gaughan said. “But if his career ended today? On what context?
“If he retires and becomes a monk in Tibet, I don’t want to vote for a guy who retires after 8 1/2 years and gives away the prime years of his career.”
Again, that answer is based on Allen’s leaving the game without a championship.
He still has time, although the tension continues to rise with every season — nay, every game — Buffalo doesn’t make a Super Bowl berth fathomable.
“I would suggest he march into Brandon Beane’s office after the 2025 season and ask for help,” said Salguero, who presented Hall of Fame cases for ringless Miami Dolphins pass rusher Jason Taylor and linebacker Zach Thomas. “Why? Because Hall of Fame quarterbacks don’t typically do it alone. Football is a team sport, and Hall of Famers don’t typically ride their singular extraordinary excellence into Canton.”
True enough. Len Dawson, Fran Tarkenton and Marino are the only three Super Bowl-era Hall of Fame quarterbacks not helped by at least one Hall of Fame running back, receiver or tight end.
Dawson was a Super Bowl MVP. Tarkenton reached three, Marino one. Tarkenton and Marino played behind Hall of Fame offensive linemen. All three had Hall of Fame coaches.
Allen will turn 30 in May. Peyton Manning didn’t hold his first Lombardi Trophy until he was 30, although he had a few Hall of Fame teammates and a Hall of Fame coach.
“Josh Allen needs help,” Salguero said. “It doesn’t diminish HOFers to have help. It actually helps make them into HOFers.”