NFL divisional round storylines: Josh Allen in upset mode, NFC West rivalry renewed
The divisional round kicks off Saturday with the Broncos hosting the Bills and the 49ers visiting the Seahawks.
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Can Josh Allen play hero mode again in the divisional round? Megan Briggs / Getty Images
The weekend regarded by many as the best of the NFL season has arrived, bringing with it four compelling matchups — two Saturday and two Sunday — with tickets to the conference championships on the line.
If last week’s wild-card action — well, most of it — was any indication, this should be another excitement-packed slate with games coming down to the wire.
Saturday kicks off in the AFC with the Buffalo Bills facing the Denver Broncos and then continues in the NFC with the San Francisco 49ers at the Seattle Seahawks.
Sunday, action heads to Foxboro, Mass., with the Houston Texans and New England Patriots in the other AFC game, and wraps with the Los Angeles Rams visiting the Chicago Bears for the final NFC contest of the weekend.
Here are some of the most compelling storylines to follow.
Mile-high upset brewing?
Buffalo Bills at Denver Broncos, 4:30 p.m. (ET), Saturday, CBS
A week after knocking off the No. 3 seed Jacksonville Jaguars, the sixth-seeded Bills hit the road again, this time heading to Denver, where the AFC’s top seed, the Broncos, await following their bye in the wild-card round.Denver this season used an aggressive defense and a steadily-improving Bo Nix to ascend the ranks and win the AFC West and their first No. 1 seed since 2015. In Buffalo, Denver braces for a familiar opponent. Last season, the Bills throttled the visiting Broncos 31-7 in the wild-card round. Now, Buffalo comes to Denver, where the Broncos are slightly favored (by 1.5 points). The Bills will have to work hard to protect Josh Allen against a pass rush that led the NFL with an average of four sacks per game. But Buffalo poses a significant threat on multiple fronts.
The Bills boast the NFL’s top-rated pass defense, after holding foes to 156.9 passing yards per game and a passer rating of 79.8. Nix, who in his second NFL season recorded 3,931 passing yards, 25 touchdown passes and 11 interceptions, has indeed displayed growth. However, he still struggles with downfield accuracy, so a Buffalo secondary that tallied 13 interceptions and limited opponents to a completion percentage of 59.7 (fourth-lowest) could be in for a big day.
Defensively, the Broncos must find a way to contain a Buffalo rushing attack that led the NFL with 159.6 yards per game. Allen is a handful, rushing for 34.1 yards per game and 14 touchdowns to complement his potent passing arm. And James Cook led the NFL with 1,621 rushing yards and ran for 12 touchdowns. The Broncos held teams to 91.1 rushing yards per game, but Buffalo matches up well and gashed Denver for 210 rushing yards in last year’s playoff meeting.
Allen always seems to jump out of a phone booth when Buffalo needs him most. Last week, he passed for 273 yards and a touchdown and rushed for two more touchdowns, shrugging off one brutal hit after another. Do the Broncos have an answer for the 2024 league MVP, or will he carry his team one step closer to the Super Bowl?
NFC West high-stakes rubber match
San Francisco 49ers at Seattle Seahawks, 8 p.m. (ET), Saturday, Fox
Two weeks after the Seahawks grinded out a 13-3 victory over the 49ers to secure the NFC West and top seed in the conference, these rivals face off again. This time, the prize is a ticket to the NFC championship game — a contest in which the Seahawks haven’t played since 2014. The 49ers, meanwhile, have reached the conference championship in each of their four previous playoff appearances under Kyle Shanahan and in three of the last four years.These squads and coaching staffs have great familiarity with each other because they face each other twice a season. A defensive struggle ensued in the last meeting, and each team scored a season low in points.
Offensive Player of the Year candidate Jaxon Smith-Njigba did record six catches for 84 yards, but the 49ers kept him out of the end zone. Sam Darnold managed only 198 passing yards while completing 20 of 26 throws, but he didn’t turn the ball over, and Kenneth Walker and Zach Charbonnet combined for 171 yards and a touchdown on 33 carries.
Seattle coach and defensive mastermind Mike Macdonald found ways to contain 49ers do-everything back Christian McCaffrey, limiting him to 23 rushing yards and 34 receiving yards, and the Seahawks held Brock Purdy to 127 passing yards and picked him off once. The 49ers will need more out of McCaffrey and others, especially while trying to compensate for the loss of tight end George Kittle.
So, which team will make the necessary adjustments to deliver better production this time around? Who delivers the X-factor performance that elevates his team? The two regular-season meetings (San Francisco won the first, Seattle the second) were decided by a combined 14 points, and neither team scored more than 17 points in either game, so look for another close one.
Drake Maye will be challenged by an elite Texans defense.Adam Glanzman / Getty Images
Maye’s toughest test yet
Houston Texans at New England Patriots, 3 p.m. (ET), Sunday, ESPN
The dramatic turnaround orchestrated by Mike Vrabel and Drake Maye’s ascension to MVP candidate have ranked among the biggest stories of the 2025 season. Last week, the Patriots dispatched the Los Angeles Chargers to earn their first playoff victory since the 2018 season (when they won their last Super Bowl), and now, they’ll try to reach their first conference championship since that same postseason. But standing in their way is a Texans team that boasts a truly elite defense that has goals of joining the ranks of the most iconic championship-winning units in league history.Coach DeMeco Ryans’ defense thoroughly dismantled the Pittsburgh Steelers’ offense in last week’s playoff opener, and that showing represented a continuation of the work that made the Texans the NFL’s top-rated defense. Leading the way are pass rushers Will Anderson Jr. and Danielle Hunter, who have combined for 27 sacks, defensive tackle Sheldon Rankins, who anchors the interior of the line, and cornerbacks Derek Stingley Jr. and Kamari Lassiter, who have shone in a lockdown secondary. Up front, the Texans have the potential to overwhelm a Patriots offensive line that allowed 48 sacks (ninth-most) this season, and their secondary should give New England’s pass catchers problems as well.
A week after getting sacked five times and intercepted once and losing a fumble against the Chargers, Maye could be in for an even tougher test. Can offensive coordinator Josh McDaniels find a way to help keep the Texans’ pass rushers off-balance? The Patriots average 128.9 rushing yards per game, but the Texans have held opponents to just 93.7 rushing yards per game, so establishing that phase of the offense could also prove challenging.
New England’s offense will need support from a defense that has proven solid, but not elite, this season. The Steelers managed to pressure Houston quarterback C.J. Stroud and force him into mistakes (two fumbles lost and an interception), but the Texans still converted 10 of 15 third downs for first downs and delivered a balanced performance after rushing for a combined 164 yards.
Stroud won’t have top wide receiver Nico Collins (concussion), but Christian Kirk shone against Pittsburgh with eight catches for 144 yards. If Stroud can regroup and deliver a relatively mistake-free performance, Houston could reach its first conference championship in franchise history.
Offensive wizards, frigid temps
Los Angeles Rams at Chicago Bears, 6:30 p.m. (ET), Sunday, NBC
Two of the brightest offensive play callers in the league will attempt to match wits as rookie head coach Ben Johnson and his young Bears welcome in Sean McVay and his battle-tested Rams. Each directs a top-10 offense that boasts explosive potential and good balance. Each has proved masterful in his ability to put his offense in position to get exactly what it needs. Now, they’ll try to keep the momentum going on a frigid night in the Windy City.Johnson has done a great job of helping Caleb Williams take strides toward the potential the Bears saw in him when they drafted him with the first pick in 2024. The coach has helped provide a strong rushing attack to help ease pressure on him and also set up an effective play-action passing attack. Williams’ confidence has soared under Johnson, and last week, he directed his seventh fourth-quarter game-winning drive as Chicago edged the Green Bay Packers in the wild-card round. The Rams boast a disruptive defensive front, and Chris Shula’s unit will aim to neutralize Chicago’s rushing attack and ramp up the pressure on Williams. But as McVay noted this week, no play is ever dead given Williams’ play-making ability.
The Bears may have home-field advantage, and as a warm-weather/dome team, the Rams could find the freezing weather (Accuweather projects a real feel in the evening of minus-23) expected in Chicago rather jarring. But McVay’s squad is an experienced and versatile bunch that has displayed an ability to adapt to a variety of situations.
Matthew Stafford led the NFL with 4,707 passing yards and 46 touchdown passes and has two dynamic weapons in Puka Nacua and Davante Adams. That seemingly would not bode well for a Chicago defense that gives up 227.2 yards per game (11th most). However, the anticipated wind gusts could force the Rams to dial back their passing attack. Fortunately for the Rams, they also feature a strong rushing game led by the tandem of Kyren Williams and Blake Corum. The Bears’ defense yields 134.5 rushing yards per contest, so they could be in for a long day.