NFL Projection Model, AFC win totals: Will the Chiefs still reign supreme?
Can anyone in the AFC dethrone the Chiefs? Austin Mock's NFL Projection Model says two teams have a great shot to do it.
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It should come as little surprise that my NFL Projection Model once again sees the Kansas City Chiefs, Baltimore Ravens and Buffalo Bills as the three best teams in the AFC. What might surprise you, however, is that the model doesn’t see the three-time reigning AFC champion Chiefs as the conference favorites.
In fact, they’re not even No. 2. Right now, the model sees the Bills as the AFC favorites, with the Ravens second and the Chiefs a close third. Of course, you should never bet against quarterback Patrick Mahomes and the Chiefs, who have been to the AFC title game seven years in a row, Perhaps as the year goes on, they can reclaim their place atop the AFC, but for now, they’re not seen as the absolute cream of the crop.
Speaking of which, while the top three have largely separated themselves from the pack, there are a few teams hovering a tier below, threatening to push themselves into true contender status. Let’s take a quick look at each division and examine the win total projections for each AFC team heading into the 2025 regular season.
(If you want a quick refresher on how my model works, scroll to the bottom of the story.)
AFC East
The Bills have owned this division ever since Tom Brady left the New England Patriots for the Tampa Bay Buccaneers, and with reigning MVP Josh Allen leading the way, there's every reason to expect their dominance to continue. Allen and the Bills have won five consecutive division crowns, and my model gives them a 74 percent chance to make it six in a row. As long as Allen stays healthy, it's hard to envision a world where Buffalo doesn't win the East again. However, that doesn't mean there's zero hope for the rest of the division.Coach Mike Vrabel is taking the reins of a Patriots team on the rise, with my model projecting them to double their win total from 2024. Vrabel has a proven track record, and when you combine that with a full NFL offseason for up-and-coming QB Drake Maye and some major offseason investments upgrading the roster, the Patriots could turn things around quickly. Remember, the Patriots are slated to face the league's easiest schedule, per my projections, which gives them the best shot to dethrone the Bills.
As for the other teams in the East, the Miami Dolphins are trending in the wrong direction, and I don't think the roster is good enough to compete with the Bills. Still, they edge out the New York Jets to avoid finishing at the bottom of the division. Sure, there is reason for optimism with new Jets' coach Aaron Glenn, but they're not ready to compete this early in his tenure. Sorry, Jets fans.
AFC North
Two of the best quarterbacks in the NFL reside in the AFC North, but only one (Lamar Jackson) plays for a team (the Ravens) that knows how to build a roster, while the other (Joe Burrow) is the frontman for a franchise (the Cincinnati Bengals) that looks poised to waste another prime season of its star quarterback.The Ravens have won back-to-back division crowns and are in a great position to make it three in a row. That's because while the Ravens and Bengals offenses will be comparably excellent, with both quarterbacks in the thick of the MVP race, that's where the comparison ends. Baltimore should field a solid defense, while my model projects the Bengals defense to, once again, be a below-average unit that will ultimately keep them from accomplishing greatness.
It could be a close fight, but my model gives the Ravens a 55 percent chance to win the North, while the Bengals sit at 32 percent.
While the top two teams have starting quarterbacks with MVP abilities, the bottom two teams each have quarterbacks with a Super Bowl ring. Unfortunately, those Super Bowl victories came a decade and a half ago. The Pittsburgh Steelers will be a fringe AFC playoff team because my model believes QB Aaron Rodgers still has a little something left in the tank, while coach Mike Tomlin always finds a way to win a couple of games the Steelers shouldn't.
Then there's the Browns, who will start Joe Flacco. The biggest question in Cleveland is how long he'll keep hold of the starting job with rookies Shedeur Sanders and Dillon Gabriel lurking. Either way, the Browns will likely be contending for a top-5 pick in the 2026 NFL Draft.
AFC South
The division should produce one of the tightest races in the NFL, with some intriguing teams but no true Super Bowl contender. Right now, my model doesn't project any team in the South to win nine games, on average. The Houston Texans have won back-to-back division crowns with 10-win seasons, while the Jaguars won three years ago with nine wins. Part of the reason for the parity in this division is the inconsistency and uncertainty at quarterback from top to bottom.This division race will likely hinge on whether Texans QB C.J. Stroud can play more like he did as a rookie vs. his disappointing sophomore campaign, when he lined up behind the NFL's worst offensive line, according to my model. A new offensive coordinator and some positive regression should mean Stroud improves upon last year. However, if Houston struggles again, Jacksonville seems primed to take over. QB Trevor Lawrence has also been inconsistent during his young career, but playing in new coach Liam Coen's offense should do wonders for his efficiency. My model gives Houston a 45 percent chance to win the division, while Jacksonville lands at 26 percent.
Indianapolis and Tennessee round out the bottom of the AFC South, with the Colts turning the page on the Anthony Richardson era and giving Daniel Jones the reins, while Tennessee hands the keys to first overall pick Cam Ward. My model is a bit more bullish on the Colts, but I'm not at all confident Jones can take care of the football. Don't be surprised if these teams are "contending" for top-10 picks.
AFC West
It's not shocking that the best division in the AFC boasts three coaches (Kansas City's Andy Reid, Denver's Sean Payton and the Las Vegas Raiders' Pete Carroll) with Super Bowl rings and a fourth (the Los Angeles Chargers' Jim Harbaugh) who has one of the highest winning percentages in NFL history.Kansas City remains the favorite to win the division, per my projections, which would be its 10th consecutive AFC West crown. That's right, the last quarterback to win this division who wasn't in a Chiefs uniform was Broncos-era Peyton Manning on his way to a Super Bowl title in 2015. The Chargers haven't won the division since 2009; the Raiders' drought goes back to 2002.
The Chiefs are who they are at this point: the favorites until someone knocks them off the pedestal. Still, this division is strong, and it won't be an easy road for them. In fact, my model only has the Chiefs winning the division 60 percent of the time. Payton's Broncos are next up at 21 percent, as they look to build upon a wild-card berth in 2024, a stellar rookie season from quarterback Bo Nix and an elite defense.
Harbaugh's Chargers are also coming off a playoff appearance last season, but the devastating preseason injury to offensive tackle Rashawn Slater gives my model some doubt about what their ceiling can be this year. QB Justin Herbert will need to take the next step if they're going to end their division title drought.
Lastly, Carroll takes over a Raiders team that landed a big upgrade at QB (from what they had last year) in Geno Smith. The Raiders don't have the roster to contend quite yet, but if the offensive line can put together a solid season, this offense could be fun. Smith will likely pepper star tight end Brock Bowers with targets, while rookie top-10 pick Ashton Jeanty leads the way on the ground.