NHL 2025-26 season predictions 3.0: How did the trade deadline impact our picks?
Which teams will make the postseason? Who will take home individual awards? Where will the Cup spend its summer vacation?
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The Colorado Avalanche remain our Stanley Cup favorites. Stephen Brashear / Imagn Images
Most NHL teams have 16 games or thereabouts remaining on their schedules. Time is running out.
So, as we cruise toward the Stanley Cup playoffs, The Athletic’s NHL staff wanted to take one last shot to make our predictions on what could come next. Which squads will make the postseason? Who will take home individual awards? Where will the Cup spend its summer vacation?
To pick apart the results of our polling, provide context and give us a healthy critique, we’ve brought in NHL senior writers James Mirtle, Sean Gentille and Mark Lazerus, and analytics know-it-all Shayna Goldman.
Gentille: Eighty-eight percent of us voted for a Central Division team or the Buffalo Sabres.
Goldman: In theory, an Eastern Conference team should have an edge if the Central Division teams beat one another into oblivion before then … but Dallas and Colorado are legitimately that strong, so you can't count either one out.
Mirtle: I'm guessing that the Edmonton vote was before Tristan Jarry allowed seven on Thursday?
Lazerus: Central Division, represent. Can't wait for ESPN and TNT to bury all of the best teams with 8:52 p.m. weeknight starts that no kid (or worn-out adult with kids) can stay up for. Great way to grow the game, guys!
Gentille: If you're committed enough to the bit to pick the Sabres in the Eastern Conference, take it all the way.
Goldman:RIP to the Pacific Division.
Lazerus: I didn't pick it, but a Minnesota-Buffalo Stanley Cup Final might rupture the fabric of space-time. Two awesome fan bases that have been waiting for teams like this for literal decades.
Gentille: I spent hours crunching the numbers, desperately trying to figure out a way to vote the Leafs here, but I couldn't make it work.
Goldman: The Flames, in theory, sold enough to sink to the bottom … but the Canucks.
Mirtle: This is their Stanley Cup. At least they finally tore off the Band-Aid and went full rebuild.
Lazerus: I'm sure that very level-headed market will handle it well when they fall to No. 3 in the draft lottery.
Gentille: In most other seasons, the defending Presidents’ Trophy winner completely crashing out of the playoff picture would be the runaway winner here, so congrats to the Leafs.
Goldman: It's always about them!
Mirtle: Surprised it's only 72 percent at this point. A change of pace, given they're usually winning this poll only in the playoffs.
Lazerus: Most disappointing? Winnipeg, easily. Most hilarious? Toronto, easily. I remember thinking that the Leafs' projection was awfully high at the start of the season. They may be the messiest team, but I definitely had higher expectations for the Jets coming off a Presidents' Trophy season.
Gentille: That preseason points projection is a nice reminder that, in a vacuum, the Sabres weren't supposed to be terrible.
Goldman: The Mammoth have one of the easiest paths forward of these three teams, if they can hold on to wild-card No. 2 and play through the Pacific. Utah just feels lukewarm compared with these other two dark horses.
Mirtle: The teams with the fourth- and sixth-best records in the league are pretty light dark horses.
Lazerus: Remember, these projections were made before the Quinn Hughes trade. Adding perhaps the best and most impactful defenseman on the planet has a way of changing the math a bit.
Gentille: The Pacific Division was always going to be soft enough for someone to take advantage, so I'm not terribly surprised by the Ducks' season. The Penguins, on the other hand? They were in my bottom five.
Goldman: The Sharks must have known these results early and responded with a win over Boston to push back into wild-card No. 2. If they can find a little consistency, these answers could look a lot different in a couple of weeks.
Mirtle: The Sharks were dead last the past two seasons with a combined 99 points. … I think the votes here were more going with the safe bet of who's going to get in. But nobody was picking San Jose, Pittsburgh or the Islanders in preseason.
Lazerus: Ahem, I actually picked the Islanders to make the playoffs in our summer predictions, James. The Penguins, though, are completely out of nowhere. Are we still trading Sidney Crosby to Montreal?
Gentille: Andrew Brunette has lived on this list for almost two full years now.
Lazerus: More like Andrew Bru-not-gonna-get-rid-of-me-that-easily, amirite?
Goldman: At this rate, the real question is whether Brad Treliving fires Craig Berube to cool his seat down or if they both get the boot.
Mirtle:They could all be gone by May.
Gentille: Columbus feels a little low, all things considered. They've slowly but surely chased down the non-Hurricane Metro teams.
Goldman: Not many believers in the March curse of recent years for Detroit, eh? I'm starting to get worried about them based on their play over the last few weeks, plus the Dylan Larkin injury.
Lazerus: My dream of a Red Wings-Sabres first-round clash — the atmospheres of those two arenas after so many years of waiting would be amazing — is fading. The Sabres keep rising, but the Red Wings are making me nervous. Columbus is coming for that spot.
Mirtle: Who on Earth picked Toronto?
Gentille: The fact the Kings are a) this high on the list and b) deserve to be this high on the list is ludicrous.
Goldman: Strength of schedule could do a lot of heavy lifting for L.A., especially with the Kraken having such a tough road ahead. I still trust the Sharks over the Kings, though.
Lazerus: The three best teams in the NHL are in the West (more specifically, in the Central). But the East field is so much deeper, and therefore so much more interesting. If ever there were a year to seed 1-16, this is it. (Also, every single other year. These guys fly on private, all-first-class jets with restaurant-quality food. They'll be fine.)
Gentille: Macklin Celebrini isn’t going to win — it still feels a little early for him there — but I'd bet on him coming a little bit closer to being named a finalist than we do collectively.
Goldman: It's going to be interesting to see how much having another Hart-caliber teammate ultimately impacts voting; believers in that could help boost Kucherov's and Celebrini’s stock here.
Mirtle: I know it was probably The Lone Granger picking the goalie, but Ilya Sorokin should get some votes from the Professional Hockey Writers Association.
Lazerus:The Sorokin pick was me, actually. If none of you thought the Islanders would be in the playoffs, and yet here they are, maybe the goalie with the most goals saved above expected (nearly 48 and counting!) should get some Hart love, eh? That said, if San Jose gets into the playoffs with that defense, Celebrini should get serious consideration. It's like the Taylor Hall year, only he's a teenager. And better.
Gentille: Connor McDavid is pretty good. Not sure if he's "make up a seven-goal deficit in 15 games" good.
Goldman: At this rate, the only way someone else jumps ahead of Nathan MacKinnon is if there's some sort of rest management down the stretch in Colorado.
Mirtle: Hasn't he been leading this since preseason?
Lazerus: We should get to vote on who the best goal scorer is. Let's make this subjective. I vote William Eklund.
Gentille: This feels right, but there's a real lane for Zach Werenski to steal some votes down the stretch should the Blue Jackets keep things rolling.
Goldman: This should probably be a tighter race than our voting reflects.
Lazerus: All due respect to Cale Makar and Quinn Hughes, this should be Werenski's to lose. I wish that didn't rhyme. Let's not forget that the Norris, more than any other award, has historically been a "Whose turn is it?" award. That could help break some ties in voters' minds.
Gentille: Aleksander Barkov’s preseason injury opened things up for the field, and Nick Suzuki has earned it.
Goldman: Nice to see Roope Hintz get some votes, and players such as Shane Pinto and Mika Zibanejad should get nods as well. But it feels as if it's Suzuki's to lose.
Lazerus: Call me old-fashioned, but a Selke winner shouldn't be the seventh forward over the boards in the penalty-kill rotation. Yet the top two guys on this list are both that on their respective teams. Patrice Bergeron is rolling over in what I can only hope is his well-appointed wine cellar.
Gentille: Fittingly, I flipped a coin for this one.
Goldman: I give an edge to Sorokin, but Andrei Vasilevskiy is absolutely up there. So is Jeremy Swayman.
Mirtle: Tampa's struggles of late are making this Sorokin's, I think. The Russian goalie factory keeps delivering.
Gentille: Broadcasters vote on this one. Jon Cooper, somehow, is Adams-less, and no coach makes TV folks' jobs easier.
Goldman: This has to finally be the year for Cooper, after navigating Tampa Bay through literally one million injuries.
Mirtle: I voted Muse because *points at roster* but we really do have to get Cooper a few of these at some point. Ruff is a great story, too.
Lazerus: I, too, thought this was finally Cooper's year. But it's getting really tough to ignore what Buffalo and Pittsburgh have done this season. Broadcasters love a narrative. I think Lindy takes it.
Gentille: Death, taxes and The Athletic’s hockey staff blowing their preseason Calder picks.
Mirtle: Guessing this one will be unanimous. Right, Montreal voters?
Lazerus: Schaefer is playing 24 minutes a night to a 57 percent goals share, with 20 goals of his own. It's just absurd. Beckett Sennecke and Ivan Demidov picked the wrong year to be born, I guess.Most NHL teams have 16 games or thereabouts remaining on their schedules. Time is running out.