NHL Playoff Report: Sabres and Bruins on the rise, Panthers and Oilers falling
With the Olympics over, here's a reminder of where the NHL playoff race stands, from teams making it interesting and teams dropping out.
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The Sabres' surge has put them in an excellent position, while any run by the Panthers may be too little too late. Sam Navarro / Imagn Images
The Olympic break is over, which means we’re back for the NHL’s stretch run. With roughly 25 games to go, the NHL’s playoff race is coming down to the wire in what should be an electric race to the finish.
After each night’s slate of games is finished, our playoff projections page is updated taking into account the results from those games and fresh new data to feed into the model. Every night, everything changes and those changes can add up — especially if a team goes on a heater (or cooler). Those changes can also be difficult to view at a glance and it’s good practice to take stock regularly of what’s been happening.
This is the Playoff Report, a monthly check-in of each team’s chances of making the playoffs, the trends within the race and why the biggest movers are on the rise or declining.
Here’s how the race currently shapes up. As you can see, it’s a beautiful mess.
Eastern Conference
Last time around I told you I had no idea what would happen in the East. One month later, it’s still extremely unclear. The Tampa Bay Lightning and Carolina Hurricanes are locks, and the Montreal Canadiens are probably safe too. The New York Rangers are out while the New Jersey Devils and Philadelphia Flyers look unlikely. The other 10 teams are still in it to varying degrees.
The best shots belong to three teams that didn’t make it last year: the Buffalo Sabres, Detroit Red Wings and Pittsburgh Penguins. While their positions look firm, difficult schedules and weak track records warrant slight caution. The Penguins are one to watch depending on how much time Sidney Crosby is forced to miss and they have the league’s toughest remaining schedule.
In the next tier, the red hot Blue Jackets look poised to take the playoff leap while the model still has faith in the Capitals to turn things around. That really depends on the Islanders and Bruins crashing back to earth. Boston has been a streaky team all season, but was fantastic in January.
As for the three Atlantic teams that made the playoffs last year, it’s getting to a point where a return feels unlikely. Florida has the easiest remaining schedule of the three while the Senators have the strongest underlying numbers this season.
Western Conference
As has been the case all season, the West is a lot more cut-and-dry than the East. The Colorado Avalanche, Dallas Stars and Vegas Golden Knights have been virtual locks all season while the Minnesota Wild joined them after acquiring Quinn Hughes.
After them, the Utah Mammoth, Los Angeles Kings, Anaheim Ducks and Edmonton Oilers look likely, although there is some room for surprise. The Kings added Artemi Panarin and have the league’s easiest remaining schedule, while the Ducks aren’t far behind. The Oilers have the toughest schedule of the four, which is what makes their position the most precarious at the moment.
The Seattle Kraken are currently in a playoff spot, but their underlying numbers and schedule make them tough to bet on. Ditto for a Sharks team that’s slowing down and a Predators’ team poised to sell. And while it’s probably too late for the Jets, it’s not hard to envision Connor Hellebuyck’s Olympic greatness spilling over to a stretch run winning streak.
On the rise
Anaheim Ducks
After a December crash, the Ducks are back on the rise, looking like the up-and-coming team we all witnessed in October. Anaheim went 9-2-0 into the break to leap back into the playoff picture and put itself on very strong footing. It would take a lot going wrong for the Ducks to miss now, especially with one of the league’s easiest schedules coming up.
There were two keys to Anaheim’s return: Lukáš Dostál getting back up to speed and the team controlling play.
Dostál had trouble in the immediate aftermath of his injury where he was getting shelled on a nightly basis. Over the last month, though, he was able to lock in and get back on his elite goalie trajectory. Dostal posted a .924 during the last month and had the league’s third-best GSAx.
It helps to have support and it’s starting to look like the team in front of him is gelling in that regard. They had a 53 percent xG share, the seventh-best mark in the league, over the last month. And that was despite missing Leo Carlsson for all but two games. Beckett Sennecke really stepped up in his absence.
The Ducks are back on track and saw the biggest Net Rating increase of any team as a result — along with the largest playoff odds bump on top of that.
Buffalo Sabres
After a decade-plus of bad beats, bad vibes, bad bounces, bad players, bad management and other bad Buffalo-isms, the tide has finally turned for the Sabres. For the first time in a long time, the Sabres finally look like a legitimate threat (and long-time readers will remember that was not the case from this model in 2022-23). A 10-4-2 run over the last month amidst a 21-5-2 heater will have that effect.
The Sabres aren’t out of the woods yet, but they are damn close if they can finish the regular season strong. Their playoff odds raced above 50 percent and peaked above 80 percent on the back of the team leaning into its offensive identity. No team scored more goals per 60 over the last month than Buffalo’s 4.09, which was a big part of the team’s increase in Offensive Rating. Sure, some of that was shooting-percentage-induced, but this is still a team that’s become loaded with offensive weapons.
Buffalo’s depth advantage is really starting to come together into an edge that can seriously overwhelm opponents with guys like Ryan McLeod and Jack Quinn scoring in bunches over the last month. But it also helps that the team’s stars are leveling up too. Tage Thompson scored 21 points in 16 games while Rasmus Dahlin scored 20 from the back end.
While I’m a little unsure about how Buffalo’s defense is trending during that same stretch — third-last xGA/60, leading to just a 46 percent xG rate — the offensive vibes are too good to ignore. If they can tighten things up while keeping up the goal-scoring binge, the Sabres’ long playoff-less nightmare may actually come to an end. For real this time.
Boston Bruins
One month ago I said to pencil the Bruins out. Shows what I know.
While I still expect the Bruins to fall out of the mix, they’ve become impossible to ignore over the last month as their latest hot streak extended further and further. It felt unlikely that the Bruins as constructed could put together a 10-1-3 stretch, but here they are. And to their credit, it looked genuine enough to warrant a healthy upgrade in their underlying strength. Only Anaheim saw a higher increase in their Net Rating over the last month.
After months of being one of the league’s lesser possession teams, the Bruins were above-average in January. They executed well on top of that and their power play continues to be a legitimate source of strength. David Pastrnak in particular has been especially good, leading the team every night while becoming one of the league’s best playmakers. Over the last month Pastrnak had 20 assists in 14 games, tied for the league lead with Nikita Kucherov. Add an elite starting goalie to that (Jeremy Swayman was top-10 in GSAx) and the Bruins have the makings of a team that could make the playoffs. They’ll just need to find a way to get there beyond putting up a 107 PDO.
Columbus Blue Jackets
For much of this season it felt like the Blue Jackets had more to give, as my model stubbornly refused to push their playoff odds down even as the losses piled up. The talent was there, the execution wasn’t. Still, an 18-19-7 record was not enough to deter the model from believing in Columbus. A 20 percent shot for the last place team in the East is pretty high for a team that didn’t make the playoffs last year.
Enter Rick Bowness, who has coaxed a 10-1-0 record out of Columbus that has the team back on track. Columbus’ playoff odds jumped 30 percentage points over the last month, the fourth-most in the league.
The big news is that what the Blue Jackets are doing looks genuinely sustainable too. Their 54 percent xG at five-on-five ranks fifth and their power play has been fantastic on top of that. With a genuinely strong goalie tandem at their disposal, the Blue Jackets look legit and now look like a favorite to make the playoffs. The model never stopped believing and you’re seeing exactly why now.
Honorable mentions
Pittsburgh PenguinsThe only reason the Penguins land in the ‘honorable mentions’ section is because of how difficult the road ahead is. They have the toughest schedule going forward and may have to figure things out without their captain for the next little bit. But given their recent pay, they may be actually equipped to do so. Pittsburgh’s fundamental process has been sound most of the year and was taken a step further over the last month with a 55 percent xG rate and an elite penalty kill. That manifested into a 9-3-3 record; will that be enough for one last playoff run with Crosby, Malkin and Letang?
Seattle Kraken
The Kraken continue to hang onto a playoff spot and are slowly gaining respect for that. Seattle’s xG rate was still not great over the last month, but at 46 percent it was a step in the right direction with some decent defensive numbers backing that up. The Kraken face the league’s second most difficult schedule going forward which dulls their playoff odds, but they have a real shot to keep defying the odds.
Falling off
Florida Panthers
There are two main things the Panthers have had to deal with this season: untimely injuries and bad goaltending.
The injuries have been a real killer as the team has not been able to ice a full non-Barkov lineup yet. Even with Matthew Tkachuk returning, the Panthers then had to deal with injuries to Seth Jones, Brad Marchand and Aaron Ekblad — all difference-makers. It’s left the team wanting often and led to an ugly month where the team went 7-8-0, with merely average xG numbers behind it. Losing five of the last six is what really caused their odds to nosedive.
It’s goaltending, though, that’s been the story. We warned before the season that Sergei Bobrovsky might struggle to shoulder the load after some so-so regular seasons and lengthy playoff runs. That’s exactly what’s happened so far, with January being his toughest month. Bobrovsky had one of the worst GSAx numbers in the league which manifested in a 38 percent goal rate at five-on-five for the month.
If there’s any solace for the Panthers, it’s that almost every team they’re chasing has a brutal schedule coming up while the Panthers have one of the easiest. Still, the team is far enough back that it may be too little too late. For the first time all year the Panthers fell below 50 percent playoff odds, dropping a league-worst 35 percentage points in January. It may be time to count the two-time defending champions out.
New Jersey Devils
The Devils already looked like an unlikely playoff bet at the start of the month. Things have only gotten worse since, to the point that it would take a near-miracle for the Devils to salvage this season. New Jersey is down to a 1-in-20 shot at making it after going 6-8-0 over the last month.
Getting Olympic hero Jack Hughes back and 100 percent healthy is a start. But it’s become clear this season (and last) that the Devils have tried too hard to become something they’re not. The Devils used to have one of the league’s most dynamic offenses, but have struggled to create to the same degree over the last two years. That’s come to a head lately where the team’s Offensive Rating has now been downgraded severely from average to minus-17.5. That ranks 26th in the league. Was that offensive sacrifice worth it to create a just-barely-above-average defense? Probably not.
Watching Hughes consistently create offense from nothing in an Olympic setting amidst low usage made it feel like a Devils problem more than a personnel problem. He wasn’t the only one showing more offensively, either. This team should be better, but it’s time to face reality that it just isn’t working as currently constructed. Whatever they’re doing led to a disappointing 91-point season last year. This year has been even worse.
Washington Capitals
I keep expecting the Capitals to turn things around, and the team keeps struggling. The Capitals went on a middling 7-7-1 run over the last month while every other team around them got hot, leading to the team being pushed farther down the East. Their playoff odds took a real downturn at the start of the month, pushing the Capitals right into the playoff bubble.
For Washington, the problem really comes down to poor sequencing where the Capitals haven’t won as many close games as they’ve needed to. Their plus-12 goal differential is tied for sixth in the East and yet they sit 12th in points percentage. Tough.
It’s possible the Capitals can be better going forward with the return of Pierre-Luc Dubois to the lineup. But in a competitive East, it will take more than that to leapfrog four teams. A once-safe bet now looks closer to a coin flip. That some unexpected teams continue to have playoff staying power has made it difficult for last year’s surprise contenders to keep up.
Edmonton Oilers
A team with Connor McDavid, Leon Draisaitl and Evan Bouchard on it playing at this level should not be this mid.
At the start of the season the excuse for that was goaltending and lately … well, it’s still partly goaltending. Trading for Stuart Skinner at the bottom of a cold streak for Tristan Jarry at the height of a hot streak did not feel wise and that’s played out over the last month.
What that kerfuffle ignored, though, was that one of Edmonton’s biggest problems was the defensive structure in front of those goalies; it’s tough for any goalie to thrive in this environment. The Oilers were fourth in xGF/60 over the last month, but seventh-last in xGA/60. And their penalty kill was among the worst in the league.
That’s caused Edmonton’s projected team strength to continue spilling down as we reckon with the fact that the Oilers simply may not be a contender. The depth after the big guns remains an issue and the blue line lacks defensive stopping power with the decline of Mattias Ekholm. It’s possible reinstating Paul Coffey behind the bench can fix the team’s defensive issues, but right now it’s the biggest thing holding Edmonton back. Going forward, the Oilers are projected to have the league’s third-best offense, but a bottom-10 defense. That’s not good enough.
Honorable mentions
New York RangersThe Rangers lost a bunch of games (2-11-1) without Adam Fox and Igor Shesterkin and traded Artemi Panarin for a weak haul, all but cementing their spot at the bottom of the league. No team’s point projection or expected win percentage dropped more over the last month.
Philadelphia Flyers
If I got one thing right about the East (for now anyways), it’s the Flyers falling back down to earth. The Flyers went 3-8-4 over the last month, dropping towards the bottom of the East. The big problem: too many starts for Samuel Ersson, who had an appalling .837 save percentage in nine games and a league-worst GSAx.
