In any given year, NFL teams have a pretty good idea of who they can rely on heading into the season. The 2024 Bills aren’t any exception.
They know they’ve got players like quarterback Josh Allen, defensive tackle Ed Oliver, left tackle Dion Dawkins and nickel corner Taron Johnson to be their sources of strength all season, among a couple of others. That group isn’t going anywhere and will be depended on to be their top players all year.
However, the players with the greater range of outcomes can often mold how good a team can be in a given year — the “swing” players, for short. That’s especially true of the 2024 Bills, as the depth chart has seen a lot of turnover due to concerns about future cap flexibility and an overall aging roster.
How a swing player is defined is rooted in their specific situation, whether it’s performance, past injury or playing time questions that could bring on potential volatility.
As the season closes in, here are six players who can help take the 2024 season from good to great, or good to worse.
DE Greg Rousseau
Rousseau is the only person to appear both on the list of those they could least afford to lose and the most significant swing players of the season — but for good reason. There is no one else in the defensive end room with as high of a ceiling or as much talent as Rousseau, and opponents also know he can turn on the light for significant in-game production. Losing him out of the rotation would be massive, even from only a game-planning perspective. But he’s also a swing player for the 2024 campaign because if he can unlock that ceiling potential — the type of ability we saw against the Steelers in just 11 snaps. He can completely change the complexion of the Bills defense this season. The back seven of the defense is facing legitimate questions that could cap the entire defense’s ceiling, putting pressure on the defensive front to lead the way. That’s where Rousseau could help flip the script and erase some of those questions on the back end.Still only 24 years old in his fourth season, Rousseau has always been a consistent run defender while showing flashes of dominance as a pass rusher. In 2022, his second season, he looked like an impact rusher and the beginning of what was a core piece of the franchise moving forward before a high ankle sprain zapped the rest of his season. Last year, the Bills were figuring out where to play everyone, as their best three perceived pass rushers — Rousseau, Leonard Floyd and Von Miller — were all most comfortable working from the defensive left side. The younger Rousseau ended up playing the majority of his snaps on the right side just because they trusted him to do so. He had yet to consistently work on the right side through the first two years of his career, so that was a lot new in 2023. Now, Rousseau has developed moves from the right side to progress while maintaining a good pass-rushing edge when working on the left. How they deploy him could help define his season, but the table is set for him to take a big step forward.
RT Spencer Brown
Brown was the easiest player to put on this list because we’ve seen some real extremes in his performance over his first three seasons. Brown’s rookie season began with excellent performances, which unraveled by the end of the year. His second year, marred by offseason back surgery in the buildup to the 2022 season, had many calling for the team to replace him in the offseason. The Bills remained steadfast in standing by him that offseason and were rewarded by an outstanding string of performances in 2023 in the second half of the season. The Bills have to hope that the end of his third season was the sign of things to come in 2024. But once again, Brown had to have offseason surgery, this time on his shoulder.It remains to be seen how much that may limit him in his fourth season. We need to see which of the two versions of the right tackle the Bills will get in 2024. Brown does have the contract year push while playing at a position that produces some big free-agent deals for players in their prime. But the inconsistency is a big reason why, despite that good stretch to end last season, the Bills may be wise to see how he does in 2024 before committing a ton of cap space to extend someone who has mostly been a question mark. Brown will turn 27 shortly before free agency begins in March, making his profile of an athletic, in-prime offensive tackle a potentially attractive target for teams to invest in with a big deal. There are motivators there, and getting a great season out of Brown will help some overall questions about the offensive line entering the year.
Tight end Dalton Kincaid’s season depends on how the Bills choose to utilize him in the offense. (Shawn Dowd / USA Today)
TE Dalton Kincaid
Even in his second season, there aren’t any questions about Kincaid’s on-field ability. Any time he is on the field on a pass play, he’s a threat to bring in a reception. He’s just a naturally gifted mover, and how he goes through his routes to wall off a defender and create a throwing window for the quarterback is a thing of beauty. He also has an undeniable on-field connection with Allen that begin early into his rookie season. Kincaid’s spot on this list has nothing to do with his performance but instead with how much the Bills will commit to him in their offense as a near-every-snap player. The team likely views Dawson Knox as a starting-caliber option, which may take a sizable chunk out of Kincaid’s overall time on the field when the team is in 11 personnel as it did last year.One of the offseason talking points is that the Bills could just run more 12 personnel with Kincaid and Knox this year to solve that problem. You can’t rule out anything at this point, but offensive coordinator Joe Brady had every reason to do so when he took over for Ken Dorsey last year — as it was a big part of the team’s offensive identity and playbook in 2023. Under Dorsey, when Kincaid and Knox were healthy, the Bills ran 12 personnel on 31.2 percent of their plays, according to TruMedia — the fourth-highest rate in the NFL through seven weeks. Under Brady, after Knox returned from injured reserve in Week 14, the Bills ran 12 personnel on only 14.8 percent of snaps through the playoffs, which would rank only 22nd in the league’s full-season percentages. It was more of a matchup tool than an offensive staple for Brady. And that is the potential Kincaid dilemma. Nothing about the tight end’s play makes him a swing player; only his potential role does. But if they fully commit to Kincaid as a 75 percent or more snap player, it could help unlock the passing offense.
S Cole Bishop
Bishop is the only rookie on this list and his impact could be huge if he’s ahead of schedule. Bishop is still working through a shoulder injury, but even with him healthy, both safety positions have the potential to be a real weakness for the Bills in 2024. Starting strong safety Taylor Rapp was a slightly below average performer during his time on the field in 2023, which might worsen in a higher snap role. Free safety is up for grabs, featuring a trio of players that generate questions. Mike Edwards is in his first year with the team and has barely practiced due to injuries. Damar Hamlin is more of a strong safety, and even when given time to play earlier in his career, was too often a liability on defense. Then there’s Bishop, a rookie and playing a position Sean McDermott called one of the three most difficult to learn in their scheme as a young player. But the first-year status is really the only thing working against Bishop. If he proves to be an option to start, and then grow into the job with more success as the year progresses, that could be a humongous development in the Bills’ season on defense.
GO DEEPER
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