Buffalo Sabres fans want to believe. They’ve also been fooled before.
During this inexplicable, 13-year playoff drought the Sabres have had, they’ve teased their passionate fan base with stretches of playoff-caliber hockey. In 2018-19, they led the NHL points around this time on the calendar after a 10-game winning streak. That proved to be fool’s gold, buoyed by a Jeff Skinner hot streak and a run of close wins. The Sabres finished 27th in the NHL that season and lost 18 of 26 games at one point.
The very next season, the Sabres started 8-1-1 under Ralph Krueger. Again, the bottom fell out, and the Sabres weren’t even one of the 24 teams invited to the NHL bubble for the playoffs in that COVID-shortened season.
So if you’re a fan who is hesitant to buy all the way in on Buffalo’s 11-9-1 start, there’s some justification for that. The Sabres are in a playoff position after beating the Kings, Ducks and Sharks on a three-game road trip. Since 2005-06, just over 75 percent of NHL teams that are in a playoff spot at Thanksgiving finish the season there, so this team has taken a significant step. But Sabres fans have seen too much to count anything as a certainty with 61 games to play.
“There’s 82 games in a season and we’re only a quarter into it,” said Sabres defenseman Bowen Byram, who won the Stanley Cup with the Colorado Avalanche. “I think we’ve done a pretty good job of staying in the fight so far, but to make the playoffs, you have to maybe go on a bit of a run at some point in the year. We have to keep building our game and keep playing well and hopefully continue to collect points. There’s definitely no room to get complacent or comfortable or anything like that.”
Lindy Ruff has made sure to not let his players get too far ahead of themselves. He was as animated as ever during Buffalo’s practice Tuesday. He didn’t like the energy to start and let the team know. In his team meeting before practice, he pointed out to players that they aren’t getting to the front of the net nearly enough, they’re missing opportunities to create offense in the zone and they’re still taking too many penalties. That was the emphasis more so than what the team did well in the three wins in California.
“We found ways to win,” Ruff said. “I think there was a lot of good in those three games but there’s a lot of opportunities to improve.”
Since the start of this 7-2-0 stretch, the Sabres are 10th in the NHL with a 54 percent goals-for percentage at five-on-five, but they are 27th in the NHL with a 46 percent expected goals percentage at five-on-five. Put simply, their shot quality is still leaving something to be desired. The Sabres scored almost five more goals than expected at five-on-five during this stretch in part because their shooting percentage was in the top five of the league during that time. When you consider that the Sabres have been without top scorer Tage Thompson, it’s encouraging they’ve found ways to get results with less-than-perfect hockey.
Meanwhile, Buffalo’s special teams and goaltending have both rebounded. Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen is in the top 10 of the NHL in goals saved above expected. In November, his save percentage is .933 and goals against average is 1.77. The Sabres’ penalty kill was perfect during the California swing. And the power play has scored in seven of the last nine games.
That’s usually enough to go on a hot streak, especially when playing a beatable schedule the way the Sabres have. Buffalo has a plus-four goal differential for the season and was plus-nine during this stretch of games. They found different ways to win on the road trip with a 1-0 shutout against the Kings and two comeback victories against the Ducks and Sharks.
“We’re not accepting losses,” Sabres captain Rasmus Dahlin said. ‘That’s not a part of what we do.”
Most of the season-long advanced numbers will point to the Sabres being a team firmly on the playoff bubble, somewhere between the 16th and 20th best team in the league. They are 23rd in expected goals percentage at five-on-five. Their expected goal differential at all strengths is 20th in the league. Their goal differential is 12th. Last week, Ruff started keeping the standings on display in Buffalo’s locker room to remind players what they’re chasing. A quick glance shows that a three-game winning streak isn’t enough to create separation.
“You have a great road trip but then you look up in the standings and nothing really changes,” Dahlin said. “It keeps us honest and humble.”
The Lightning beat the Avalanche 8-2 on Monday night and don’t look like a team ready to hand over third place in the Atlantic Division easily. The Sabres are holding the second wild-card spot based on points percentage, but the Bruins and Islanders are right on their heels. Entering Tuesday’s games, The Athletic’s playoff projection model gave the Sabres a 29 percent chance to make the playoffs, with the Lightning at 95 percent, the Panthers at 89 percent, the Islanders at 60 percent and the Bruins at 35 percent.
That’s why Ruff has already put the road trip behind him. He’s looking at what the Sabres have coming up, and it’s daunting. Their next three games are Wednesday at home against the Wild, Friday at home against the Canucks and Saturday on the road against the Islanders. They then host the Avalanche and Jets next week. All five of those teams are playoff contenders.
“We have an extremely tough schedule coming and the teams that we’re playing starting tomorrow are extremely tough teams to generate opportunities against,” Ruff said.
That makes it ideal timing for the Sabres to get Thompson back in the lineup. He practiced Tuesday and said he’s ready to play against Minnesota. The team decided to be extra cautious with him over the weekend to make sure his lower body injury fully healed. Thompson, who has 11 goals and seven assists in 16 games this season, will be a welcome addition to a lineup that averaged under three goals per game in the five games he missed.
And Thompson will be glad to be returning to a team that’s above .500 for the first time all season and sitting in a playoff spot.
“There’s obviously no doubt from the guys inside these walls that we can do something special,” Thompson said. “It’s just being consistent. I like where the game is at right now.”