The Buffalo Sabres are 25 games into the 2024-25 season and, frustratingly, not much has changed. They are 11-12-2, which is only two points better than they were through 25 games last season and one point better than they were through 25 games two seasons ago. Buffalo is tied for seventh in the wild-card race in the Eastern Conference and as close to last place in the conference as to the second wild-card spot.
How did they get here? Here’s what we’re seeing from the Sabres through 25 games.
1. Changing the coach has not changed the Sabres’ results this season. Here’s an interesting stat: Under Don Granato the last two seasons, the Sabres were 53-1-5 when leading after two periods. This season, they’ve already lost two games in regulation when leading after two periods, including the collapse against the Avalanche on Tuesday night. Managing a lead is one of the responsibilities of a coach.
Ruff was brought in to be the experienced voice a young group of players needed. But that hasn’t translated into on-ice results. Through 25 games last season, the Sabres were 21st in expected goals against per 60. They are 19th this season. They were 23rd in expected goals for last season and are 18th this season. They have the 29th-ranked power play and the 15th-ranked penalty kill.
The biggest change stylistically is that the Sabres are attempting far more shots than they did a season ago. But as we outlined recently, those shot attempts aren’t being converted into high-danger scoring chances at a high enough clip. They still don’t get to the net on a consistent enough basis.
As it turns out, the Sabres’ issues weren’t all about coaching. GM Kevyn Adams was banking on Ruff being able to implement more structure and get the team playing a more consistent game. But not much has changed. Part of that could be because the Sabres’ coaching staff didn’t change dramatically. Ruff replaced Granato, and Seth Appert was promoted from Rochester to be an assistant. The rest of the on-ice staff stayed the same.
Ruff said Tuesday night it’s on him to make sure this doesn’t snowball. How he handles this moment is critical and it’s what he was brought here for. He canceled practice on Wednesday with another home game against the Jets looming on Thursday night. Whether he fills that time with more video work or some sort of closed-door meeting, the Sabres need to look different and fast.
2. The Sabres need to shake up the roster and nothing should be off the table. Whether Adams should be the one to make the next moves is a real question given his track record in his fifth season on the job. This franchise can’t afford to be desperate and make trades for the sake of it. This team has already watched too many players leave and find success elsewhere. But Adams also can’t stay overly committed to a group of players that hasn’t won anything in the NHL. Some of the contracts might be tough to move. Some of the young players have lost value given their poor play. Selling low isn’t ideal. But the Sabres have more than $5 million in cap space, according to PuckPedia. They have plenty of draft picks and prospects. What message does it send to the current group of players if Adams sits on those assets and doesn’t try to make the team better?
Jason Zucker has been a positive offseason addition. Ryan McLeod has been reliable on the penalty kill. But the other adds Adams made this offseason haven’t impacted the on-ice results often enough. They need an experienced defenseman with the ability to play a sturdy and rugged game. They need more proven scoring in the top six. These were offseason needs that went unaddressed. They haven’t gone away.
How much is an injury hindering Rasmus Dahlin? (Timothy T. Ludwig / Imagn Images)
3. Rasmus Dahlin’s injury is alarming. The Sabres captain suffered what was initially termed a “mid-body” injury during training camp. He missed about a week of practice and then was back on the ice before the team went to Europe. He started the season slow, not playing with the typical tenacity and physicality he’s shown in the past. On Tuesday, he left the game early in the third period after taking a shot from Avalanche defenseman Cale Makar. Ruff said after the game he had back spasms and that it was related to the preseason injury. For a player who is logging a team-leading amount of ice time, a lingering back injury is cause for concern. No injury is easy to play through, but a back injury can be particularly tough for someone who plays the way Dahlin does. Even if he doesn’t miss a ton of game action, that’s an injury that could require ongoing maintenance. Given the spot the Sabres are in, they need Dahlin, their highest-paid player, to be a difference-maker. That might not be a reasonable expectation if he’s not fully healthy.
4. Owen Power still has a lot of room to grow. The Sabres were outscored 3-0 and outshot 18-8 when Power was on the ice at five-on-five against the Avalanche. On the game-winning goal, Power was the one in front of the net who didn’t box out his man. His on-ice expected goal share this season is 47 percent, which would be a career low for him. He’s minus-2 after being a plus player each of the last two seasons. He has 21 giveaways in 25 games after having 36 all of last season. He only has nine hits.
So even though Power has 15 points in 24 games, the Sabres need more from him at the other end of the ice. Some of this is a natural learning curve for a 22-year-old defenseman. Some of it is who he has been paired with. Jacob Bryson is not a top-four caliber defenseman, and Henri Jokiharju has never been a perfect match with Power. But Power needs to pick it up, especially if Dahlin misses time. He’s making $8.3 million per year, and the Sabres need a better return on that investment.
5. Power isn’t the only player underachieving. Quinn’s goal-scoring troubles are well-documented. He still hasn’t scored on a goalie all season. Tage Thompson and Alex Tuch have been excellent for the Sabres, but there has not been the secondary scoring necessary to elevate this lineup. Even the depth forwards aren’t excelling in their roles consistently. Beck Malenstyn, McLeod, Peyton Krebs and Sam Lafferty all have on-ice expected goal shares of 43 percent or lower at five-on-five this season. That’s noticeably worse than what the Sabres got from Kyle Okposo and Zemgus Girgensons in the same role last season. Nicolas Aube-Kubel has a 52 percent expected goal share but has only played nine games, so maybe he can add some juice. This team clearly misses Jordan Greenway, who is still on injured reserve. He was one of the team’s most consistent forwards before his injury. The bottom six hasn’t been the same without him.
6. This season has not been without some bright spots. Jiří Kulich is emerging as a legitimate center option. He’s won 55 percent of his faceoffs, albeit in a smaller sample than some of his teammates. But given the inconsistent play from Cozens, it’s encouraging that the Sabres have Kulich as a potential top-six center after they started him off at wing when he first came up. His 47 percent expected goal share at five-on-five isn’t world-beating stuff, but for a rookie on an average team, it’s respectable. His game away from the puck has been solid and he still has scoring upside that hasn’t materialized. Overall, his game has been encouraging.
7. The outlook for the rest of the season isn’t great, but the one thing working in the Sabres’ favor is that the rest of the Eastern Conference is struggling. The Sabres are three points out of a wild-card spot and also three points out of the conference’s basement, which shows how messy the picture is. According to The Athletic’s playoff predictor model, the Sabres have a 17 percent chance to make the playoffs. They haven’t shown a lot through 25 games to suggest they are capable of going on the type of run necessary to get there, but maybe the rest of the conference will leave the door open long enough for the Sabres to figure it out. If not, significant changes will be necessary.
