Somebody should probably check on Duane.
You remember Duane, the disgruntled Buffalo fan who reached his breaking point in January 2020. Frustrated after watching his beloved Sabres spin their wheels on their way to what would be their 10th straight playoff miss, Duane decided he had to do something. So he called into a local radio station, took a deep breath, and then opened up an emotional vein.
He went in on the players. He went in on management. He went in (especially) on ownership. It was a hard listen, but no real fan could turn away, because we’ve all been there at some point. As I wrote at the time, we were all Duane.
But some of us were more Duane than others, because some teams are more hopeless than others. And so a few days after Duane’s meltdown, I went through the league to try to figure out which fan base would be the next to hit rock bottom. And almost five full years later, it’s time to ask that question again.
We can start with some good news. Of the nine teams in that 2020 post, three have been reasonably good in the years since — the Rangers, Wild and Devils haven’t won any Cups, but they’ve all had more ups than downs over the last five years. Sometimes, there really is a reason for hope.
Other teams haven’t been as lucky. So today, we’re going to use the same scoring system as last time to figure out which team’s fans should be closest to a Duane-like nadir. To qualify for consideration, a team has to be in danger of missing the playoffs for at least a third straight season. You wouldn’t think a league with as much parity as the NHL would have all that many teams on their way to a three-peat, but it’s a longer list than you’d think, with 12 teams in all. It’s a group that doesn’t even include a few fan bases who probably feel pretty miserable right now, including the Bruins, Rangers, Islanders and Predators, since they all made the playoffs last year. All I can say is wait your turn, everyone.
This is always a tricky exercise, since (as you’ll no doubt see in the comments), some fans insist on eternal optimism while others take pride in being as miserable as possible. The reality is that all of these fan bases have it bad. But who’s got it the worst? Let’s start counting down …
12. Utah Hockey Club
Recent history: 7/10. OK, according to the league they have no history, and are a brand-new team. But we all know these are the Coyotes, and that team never won anything and last made the playoffs in 2020.Lack of faith in ownership/management: 1/10. You mean the new owner who just managed to sneak a team into town out of nowhere? Yeah, we like that guy.
Future hopelessness: 3/10. They don’t have a franchise-level stud to build around, but they’re young, the pipeline is good, and the cap is reasonably clear.
Bonus points: -3, because if you’re a fan in Utah and you’re already complaining after two months, maybe this isn’t the league for you.
Tipping point total: 8/30. Hey, somebody has to set the baseline for everyone else.
The Blackhawks have a fantastic pipeline and Connor Bedard, but this season hasn’t gone how they hoped. (Michael Reaves / Getty Images)
11. Chicago Blackhawks
Recent history: 6/10. They haven’t made the playoffs since the 2020 bubble, and are on pace to be in the running for dead last for the fourth year in a row. Then again, most of their fans can remember multiple Cups.Lack of faith in ownership/management: 4/10. Kyle Davidson gets a pass for most of those bad years, since he was very clearly tanking. But this year was supposed to be a step forward, so it’s fair to say the temperature is starting to drift upwards.
Future hopelessness: 1/10. They have Connor Bedard, not to mention one of the best pipelines in the league.
Bonus points: -2. You’re not near rock bottom until other fan bases feel sorry for you. In related news, the Hawks won three Cups in a decade and then the Bedard lottery.
Tipping point total: 9/30. But check back next year if Bedard hasn’t snapped out of his slump and we’re having the “Wait, is he a bust?” conversation.
10. San Jose Sharks
Recent history: 8/10. Their last playoff appearance was in 2019 and they haven’t been all that close since, including a dead-last finish last year.Lack of faith in ownership/management: 4/10. Mike Grier is still relatively new to the job, and while he hasn’t pulled off any miracles, he’s been a steady hand at the wheel.
Future hopelessness: 1/10. Between the kids on the roster and the ones on the way, there may not be a team that’s more stocked for the future.
Bonus points: -1. For how this season is going, with an opening nine-game losing streak followed by an impressive turnaround that has the Sharks looking like … well, a very mediocre team, but that’s still an improvement.
Tipping point total: 12/30. It’s been rough, but right now the Sharks and their fans are right in that sweet spot where the future looks bright but there aren’t any real expectations yet. (Unfortunately I can tell you from experience that this phase will feel very naive in hindsight.)
9. Anaheim Ducks
Recent history: 7/10. They haven’t made the playoffs since 2018, and haven’t won a playoff game since the year before that.Lack of faith in ownership/management: 4/10. Pat Verbeek has been fine as a rebuild GM, including swooping in on the Cutter Gauthier opportunity last year.
Future hopelessness: 2/10. There’s plenty of youth, both here and on the way.
Bonus points: +1. For the ongoing Trevor Zegras situation, which has been frustrating. He’s gone from a video game cover-level franchise prospect to slumping young player to trade bait to … whatever he is now. For a fan base watching a rebuild, the only thing worse than a young bust is one who teases you with sure-thing vibes first.
Tipping point total: 14/30. The Ducks are a bit further ahead on embracing a full-fledged rebuild than comparable teams like the Sharks, which means the pressure to start seeing progress is just a bit higher.
8. Montreal Canadiens
Recent history: 6/10. This will make it four years running without a playoff appearance, which isn’t as long as some of the teams on our list, but will be the longest streak in franchise history since the pre-NHL days. And of course, a Cup drought stretching past 30 years for a team that never used to go longer than seven seasons between championships.Lack of faith in ownership/management: 3/10. According to our fan confidence survey, it’s still reasonably high.
Future hopelessness: 3/10. You’d like to see more from 2022 No. 1 pick Juraj Slafkovský this year, but the pipeline is solid and there are good young players already on the roster. The bigger question in Montreal has always been the ceiling, but in terms of pure volume, they’re in solid shape.
Bonus points: +1. For the potentially awkward Martin St. Louis situation, in which a coach everyone in the hockey world seems to love might be seeing his seat warm up. And another +1 just because it’s Montreal, where the goal is supposed to be championships and not just sneaking into the playoffs like it is in other markets.
Tipping point total: 14/30. It’s Montreal, so you’re not going to be able to do a decade-long rebuild in front of an endlessly patient fan base. For now, though, the market seems to be going along with the plan. For now.
Montreal head coach Martin St. Louis might be sitting on a hotter seat than anyone expected at this point of his tenure. (Bruce Bennett / Getty Images)
7. St. Louis Blues
Recent history: 2/10. They barely slip past our benchmark, having made the playoffs as recently as 2022. And of course, almost all of their fans have fresh memories of a Stanley Cup.Lack of faith in ownership/management: 6/10. They finished in the bottom third of our fan confidence survey. It’s hard to know how to factor in the predetermined GM switch that’s coming in 2026, although I guess you at least give them credit for having a succession plan, which is more than most teams seem to be able to offer.
Future hopelessness: 9/10. The pipeline is middle-of-the-pack, which is not what you’re looking for when you’re heading toward a third straight playoff miss. To make matters worse, they’ve only got three picks in this coming draft, and Mirtle has them ranked as one of the very worst cap situations in the league.
Bonus points: -2. For the whole “Hey, we were in last place in January and still won a Cup” confidence that you could grab onto if you were a certain type of fan. That’s delusional thinking, but hey, you take your optimism anywhere you can get it.
Tipping point total: 15/30. This score is actually a bit lower than I thought, and it feels like if we repeated this exercise in a year the Blues could be a team that had a big shift. Still, a recent Cup means there’s a floor to any sense of true hopelessness.
6. Columbus Blue Jackets
Recent history: 8/10. They haven’t made the playoffs since the 2020 bubble, and have only won a single seven-game series in franchise history.Lack of faith in ownership/management: 4/10. This would have been significantly higher a year ago when Jarmo Kekäläinen was still in charge, but Don Waddell should get a chance to enact his own plan.
Future hopelessness: 3/10. The pipeline is strong and Adam Fantilli may be the best prospect the organization has had since Rick Nash.
Bonus points: +1. For just having traded away a No. 6 pick who, it turns out, could not skate.
Tipping point total: 16/30. Two decades without contending would be tough on anyone, but the vibe in Columbus these days seems to be more “circle the wagons” than “circular firing squad.”
5. Philadelphia Flyers
Recent history: 6/10. They haven’t made the playoffs since the 2020 bubble, although they hung around last year’s race longer than anyone expected them to.Lack of faith in ownership/management: 4/10. Stepping in after a decade of Ron Hextall and Chuck Fletcher will certainly buy a guy a little bit of patience.
Future hopelessness: 6/10. It’s only a middle-of-the-pack pipeline, which isn’t ideal given where they’ve been in the standings, and last year’s surprisingly competitive season probably hurt more than it helped. Also, some key young pieces, like Morgan Frost, have been marginally disappointing lately. Still, they have Matvei Michkov, and your team doesn’t.
Bonus points: +1. Because it’s Philadelphia sports, and they don’t do patience.
Tipping point total: 17/30. For context, the only other time the Flyers missed the playoffs for five straight years, they made the biggest trade in franchise history to start a new era with Eric Lindros. There seems to be a little more patience around the team this time, but it’s still Philadelphia, so the clock is ticking.
4. Ottawa Senators
Recent history: 8/10. They haven’t been to the playoffs since their surprise run to Game 7 of the conference final in 2017.Lack of faith in ownership/management: 5/10. This is a tough one. For years, Senators fans had next to no faith in their owner, and rightly so. That lack of faith trickled down to GM Pierre Dorion and eventually coach D.J. Smith. But last year was a time of transition, theoretically clearing the way for progress. Instead, it’s been more of the same. So it’s not so much a lack of faith in the current regime as it is a lingering doubt as to whether the previous group was the entire problem after all.
Future hopelessness: 3/10. While there are legitimate questions about how high the ceiling is for the current core, it’s still young and the pipeline remains solid.
Bonus points: +2 after reading the results of Julian’s survey, in which 80 percent of fans say they’re not making the playoffs and 70 percent (!) want a major move to the roster.
Tipping point total: 18/30. They have the third-longest playoff drought in the league, and I’m not sure if it makes it better or worse that the other two are in the same division. (By the way, I’m only now realizing how East-heavy the top of this list is. I’m not sure what to do with that information.)
Linus Ullmark is off to a difficult start in Ottawa this season. (Ryan Sirius Sun / Getty Images)
3. Pittsburgh Penguins
Recent history: 2/10. This would be their third year without a playoff appearance, but they have multiple Cups in the semi-recent past. They’ve had worse stretches, including in the early 2000s and a long drought in the mid-80s.Lack of faith in ownership/management: 8/10. They’ll never push a 10/10 rating as long as Mario Lemieux is even vaguely associated with ownership, but stock in the Kyle Dubas era is plummeting. They ranked 29th in our front office confidence rankings, the worst of any team on today’s list. (Somewhat weirdly, the three teams behind them — the Leafs, Kings and Islanders — have all regularly made the playoffs lately.)
Future hopelessness: 9/10. They were 26th in Corey’s pipeline rankings, which again is the worst of any team on today’s list. Even worse, with more than a few dicey contracts on the books, they’ll probably need to take a step back before they can even begin a true rebuild.
Bonus points: +2 for the Sidney Crosby factor, as they risk an ugly ending to one of the greatest eras the lottery gods have ever gifted a franchise.
Tipping point total: 21/30. Look, it’s the Penguins. The fan base went from Mario to Sid, with a dose of Jaromir and Geno sprinkled in. When your franchise players fall into the one-name category of stardom, nobody outside the fan base is going to feel sorry for you. But this isn’t the Leaguewide Empathy rankings; it’s about each fan base. And it could be about to get ugly in Pittsburgh.
2. Detroit Red Wings
Recent history: 8/10. They haven’t made the playoffs since 2016, a stretch that includes a historically bad season in 2019-20. Most of their fan base will still remember the glory years, which helps, but there are Red Wings fans who weren’t alive for the last Cup.Lack of faith in ownership/management: 7/10. For years, it’s been the conventional wisdom that the fan base would have essentially limitless faith in Steve Yzerman, because he was Steve Yzerman. I’m not sure that’s true anymore; my sense is patience is wearing thin. If you’re a Red Wings lifer, you may not want to see your hero get fired, but at the very least you’re probably contemplating a move upstairs.
Future hopelessness: 7/10. They’ve nailed a few picks, but a total lack of help from the lottery gods has left them with a middle-of-the-pack pipeline. That would be good for some teams, but not one that’s been this bad for this long.
Bonus points: +1. For the ongoing Derek Lalonde watch, which is somehow already in year four even though he’s only in his third season.
Tipping point total: 23/30. There’s a part of me that legitimately cannot believe Yzerman’s so-perfect-it-was-practically-ordained return to Detroit has gone this poorly. But here we are.
1. Buffalo Sabres
Recent history: 10/10. Their last playoff series was in 2011. Since then, they’ve had zero appearances, which matches the number of championships in franchise history. Ah well, at least the franchise player they spent years tanking for became a villain, got traded to an expansion team and immediately won a Cup.Lack of faith in ownership/management: 9/10. The clock seems to be ticking on Kevyn Adams. As for ownership, the only good thing you can say about Terry Pegula these days is at least the Bills are good.
Future hopelessness: 4/10. Corey had their pipeline just outside the top 10, but the core is young enough that you can find plenty of hope if you squint.
Bonus points: +1. For the fact that they’re hanging right around the playoff bubble so far this season, which would be a good thing for most teams but for the Sabres just makes it feel like Lucy setting up the football for the 14th year in a row.
Tipping point total: 24/30. We’ll end the way we began: Somebody should probably check on Duane.