The pros and cons of selecting Bills TE Dalton Kincaid in fantasy drafts
With Stefon Diggs and Gabe Davis gone, could the second-year TE become Josh Allen's favorite target and an elite player at his position?
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From a fantasy football perspective, the Buffalo Bills have had a pretty steady cast of characters in recent years. It’s always been Josh Allen, one of the best dual-threat quarterbacks in the game, his top receiver, Stefon Diggs, and the boom-or-bust Gabe Davis. Now, Diggs and Davis are gone and only Allen remains as the Bills will be going through the biggest change to their receiving corps since 2019.
With it comes uncertainty but also opportunity for others, especially second-year tight end Dalton Kincaid. Could he become Allen’s favorite target and, at the same time, an elite player at his position? Let’s examine.
Pros
Kincaid’s appeal is tantalizing because the competition for targets has almost wholly departed. With Diggs and Davis gone, only slot receiver Khalil Shakir remains from the 2023 receiver depth chart. The Bills added veteran Curtis Samuel, who will likely start, though he’s had only one season with more than 800 yards receiving. Buffalo drafted Keon Coleman with the first pick in the second round in April, but he’s only 21 years old. In his final college season at Florida State, he averaged merely 4.2 receptions and 54.8 yards per game in 12 outings. Shakir came on nicely in 2023, but Kincaid (91) more than doubled Shakir’s targets (45) last season.All of those are good signs. A segment of the 2023 season could conjure up even bigger dreams about what Kincaid’s second year could hold. From Weeks 8 to 12, tight end Dawson Knox went on injured reserve with a wrist injury. Over those five games, Kincaid saw his snap share jump to 74 percent. He was a consistent target of Allen’s throughout that span, leading all Bills receivers with 31 receptions, finishing second in targets (37, 7.4 per game) behind only Diggs (43) and racking up 281 yards — 42 percent of his yardage production for the entire season. That five-game stretch would have put Kincaid on a 105-catch, 955-yard pace for the season.
Under coach Sean McDermott, it’s rare for a rookie to earn the role and impact that Kincaid had. He showed an immediate rapport with Allen through the spring and summer of his rookie season. And it recently came to light that, during the 2023 NFL Draft, Allen texted only two words to general manager Brandon Beane before their first-round selection: “Dalton Kincaid.” The only thing standing in the way of his becoming an elite fantasy asset is the coaching staff and how it views his role in 2024.
Cons
The biggest potential pitfall is how much the Bills will commit to Kincaid being an every-down player. Though it was great to see his snap share increase with Knox sidelined, it fell upon Knox’s return. Over the final six games, Kincaid had just a 53.6 percent snap share. Knox even outsnapped him in two of those games. Kincaid had a pair of big weeks, but his average output over those six games was 3.3 catches on 5.0 targets for 47 yards and only one touchdown. That was under offensive coordinator Joe Brady, the Bills’ play caller again this year.The bad news is that Knox, another Allen favorite, remains on the roster. On the positive side, Kincaid did get 59 percent of the offensive snaps in the playoffs when it mattered most. Despite Kincaid’s usage increasing in the playoffs, Knox remained a factor and played 41 percent of the snaps.
If Kincaid were to hit his ceiling outcome, his 2024 production involves a projection that one of two things must happen:
1. The Bills commit to 12 personnel more often after trading away Diggs.
2. Kincaid turns Knox into a bit player who gets, at most, 20 to 30 percent of snaps.
Conclusion
Kincaid’s easy route running, good hands, ability to read zone defenses and win short and intermediate routes immediately made him a favorite of Allen’s in 2023. That should continue in 2024. And when you extrapolate his output during Knox’s absence from the lineup, few tight ends in the league can offer what he could become.However, with Knox’s presence, or until we get a better idea of how the Bills intend to use their personnel packages, it will take a certain leap of faith with Kincaid as the current No. 7 tight end and No. 57 in ADP.
Kincaid has the talent to make that ranking worth it and could even best it as one of the top producers at his position. However, when spending that type of pick on him, you must also be mindful of his potential obstacles.
