The MVP case for Josh Allen, who is doing 'something totally different': Our deep dive on the race

HipKat · Jan 4, 2025

The Athletic: NFL MVP debate: Both Josh Allen and Lamar Jackson are deserving, but what separates them?

NFL MVP debate: Both Josh Allen and Lamar Jackson are deserving, but what separates them?

There's much nuance and context to explore beyond the stats as it pertains to the case for Allen or Jackson to be named league MVP.

www.nytimes.com

The MVP debate surrounding Josh Allen and Lamar Jackson has gotten obnoxious. Fans and some in the media continue to joust about which sublime quarterback deserves the NFL’s top individual honor and, in the process, go to silly lengths to disparage the incredible achievements of the superstar they don’t favor. At times, the rhetoric seems personal.

You won’t find that nonsense here. Jeff Zrebiec and Tim Graham, who cover the Baltimore Ravens and Buffalo Bills, respectively, for The Athletic, believe Jackson or Allen would be a worthy recipient of this year’s award. But as reporters who have closely followed the two teams, there is much nuance and context to explore beyond the stats.

To effectively cut through the clutter strewn about in far too many Jackson-Allen discussions, Zrebiec and Graham limit their talking points to the 2024 campaign. Career numbers, accomplishments and franchise records are irrelevant. MVP consideration should focus on only the season in question. You also won’t see either journalist denigrate Jackson or Allen because, if you need to do that to explain the other candidate’s greatness, then that case must be weak to begin with.

With due respect to the efforts of Joe Burrow trying to single-armedly will the Cincinnati Bengals into the playoffs and Saquon Barkley approaching the NFL’s single-season rushing record, Allen and Jackson are the clear front-runners.

And there’s something about Allen versus Jackson that gets folks all worked up.

Graham: For transparency and to make a broader point, I want to start by saying I don’t vote for the Associated Press MVP Award, the version the NFL recognizes as official. But I did cast my Pro Football Writers Association ballot for Jackson last year. He had the best season despite Allen amassing more yards and touchdowns. The reason is that Jackson played the part all season long, while Allen meandered through the first two and a half months of 2023 like a zombie who forgot how to play the position.

Now, not all of that was his fault because the Bills’ leadership tried to engineer some of the instinctive gunslinger out of his game. But their offense was so maddeningly inconsistent — sometimes inexcusably bad — that the Bills fired play caller Ken Dorsey 10 games into the season. MVPs don’t get their coordinators fired. And that’s where context comes in. Many Bills fans fumed that Jackson won last season despite inferior statistics, but there’s way more to it.

Zrebiec: Jackson didn’t just win it last season. He got 49 of 50 first-place votes. It’s amusing that so much time is being spent talking about last year, like it was some hotly and tightly contested race, when the voting suggests that it was a landslide. But you’re right. None of that matters this year.

Graham: Just trying to stiff-arm those inevitable homer accusations, Jeff!

Zrebiec: Here’s what ultimately will matter. What are the voters prioritizing in making their decision? Do they go strictly by the numbers? Is there a certain statistic they weigh most heavily? How much does team success/record matter? Do they look deeply at the supporting casts and try to determine whether a certain candidate lifted their teammates more than the other? Does performance against certain teams in certain games factor prominently?

Graham: I don’t know if that’s the beauty or the curse of this award. The NCAA basketball tournament, for instance, honors the “most outstanding player.” That change in verbiage could go a long way to helping voters focus. But that word — valuable — is up for interpretation. It’s probably also worth noting that voters not only look at the definition differently, but they also probably take as many approaches to finalizing their decision as there are ballots. Some made up their minds a while ago. Some will wait until the final Week 18 down has been played. Some will take five minutes to fill out their ballot. Some will take five days.

Zrebiec: Voters look at it in their own way and may have a different viewpoint of what makes a player more valuable than others. Here’s what’s indisputable, though: There are no obvious blemishes on either Jackson’s or Allen’s MVP resumes. Their numbers are ridiculous across the board, both as passers and runners. Their highlight reels are deep. Allen has the two statement wins over Kansas City and Detroit. The Ravens didn’t beat the Chiefs, but Baltimore has five wins over teams in AFC playoff spots, including the Bills, and two more against teams in NFC playoff spots. That’s what makes this so difficult. Unless you’re a voter who goes strictly by the numbers and doesn’t allow other circumstances to factor in, it’s hard to find a clear differentiator.

Graham: When I weigh Allen’s season versus Jackson’s, what I keep coming back to is that an argument can be made — I don’t necessarily agree with it, but a legitimate argument exists — that Jackson might not even be the MVP of his own team. The Ravens knew Jackson couldn’t do everything himself and needed help to reach the next level, so they added Derrick Henry. The greatest running back of this generation helped unlock the offense. Jackson has thrown 60 fewer passes than Allen against nickel coverage despite playing 40 more snaps.

The Bills, meanwhile, felt Allen could shoulder a heavier burden this year and traded top receiver Stefon Diggs, let second-most productive receiver Gabe Davis leave as a free agent and released center and captain Mitch Morse. The Bills eventually traded for Amari Cooper in late October, but when the season began, only one wideout on the roster had caught a pass from Allen. The Bills set an NFL record last week with their 13th player catching a touchdown. On paper, Bills running back James Cook’s NFL-leading 15 rushing touchdowns suggest a heavy workload, but he’s averaging nearly a full carry less than he did last season. I think there’s a strong sense that Allen’s inferior numbers, which is amazing to say and underscores Jackson’s gaudy stat sheet when you consider all the records and NFL firsts Allen has authored this season, are mitigated by the sentiment Allen is doing more with less.

Josh Allen, despite the Bills parting ways with their two most productive receivers from last season, has led his team to a 13-3 record and another AFC East title.
(Bryan M. Bennett / Getty Images)

Zrebiec: I agree about the perception that Allen has done more with less. Elevating the players around you — and Allen has done that probably more than any player — is a big part of anybody’s MVP credentials. But I’d push back hard on the “not even the MVP of his own team” argument. If you watch the Ravens on even a semi-regular basis and don’t think Jackson is the MVP of this team and controls everything they do, I can’t take your football opinion seriously. Henry has been a terrific fit for the Ravens and added a new dimension to the offense, but I’d say he’s benefitted far more from the presence of Jackson in the backfield than vice versa. Henry is averaging 5.8 yards per carry, a career high by a wide margin. The previous three years with the Titans, he averaged 4.3, 4.4 and 4.2 yards per carry. He averaged under 1 yard before contact during that span in Tennessee.

This year, he’s averaged 2.4 yards per carry before contact. What do you think changed? It’s the threat of Jackson as a ball carrier that spearheads this run game, not the other way around. The Ravens have had a dominant run game with guys far less talented than Henry lining up behind Jackson. In Jackson’s six full seasons as Baltimore’s starting quarterback, they’ve had the league’s top rushing attack three times. They were second in 2022, third in 2021 and they’re second this year. Henry strengthened a strength, but where this offense has made its biggest strides is in the passing game. That’s largely because of Jackson’s significant improvements as a passer, which the numbers bear out.

Graham: I guess this is a good time to mention the stellar offensive lines. Allen has been protected better than ever, entering the regular-season finale with a career-best 2.8 percent sack percentage. As with Jackson, Allen’s elusiveness deserves credit, but the blocking has been sublime for both clubs. So much of the conversation this summer was about how Allen and the Bills could overcome the loss of so much talent, but offensive line coach Aaron Kromer’s grunts — even with the departure of Morse, the guy his linemates referred to as “Dad” — made that ongoing narrative much easier to conquer.

Zrebiec: Nobody was saying the Ravens had an embarrassment of offensive riches when the season began, that’s for sure. Their two biggest concerns heading into the regular season were arguably wide receiver and offensive line. At wideout, they had Zay Flowers and a 2021 first-round pick in Rashod Bateman, who averaged 31 catches and 389 receiving yards over his first three seasons. Tight end Mark Andrews was coming off a major injury and had six total catches over his first four weeks. The offensive line had to replace three quality starters, including veterans Kevin Zeitler and Morgan Moses. It’s played pretty well and probably punched above its weight, but it’s been a struggle at times.

The Bills have arguably the best offensive line in football, or at least in the AFC. Cook is an all-purpose stud, one of the best backs in the league. I relayed a quote in the preseason with one of the coaches saying Baltimore had the best tight end group in football, and I got pushback from passionate Buffalo fans. So I know the Bills have talented tight ends. Cooper is a five-time Pro Bowler and Khalil Shakir has emerged as a really good player. Let’s be clear: That doesn’t take anything away from Allen’s brilliance, but how much the Ravens’ pass catchers and skill position players have been propped up in these debates has been a source of great amusement in Baltimore, where there are annual questions about whether the front office did enough at wide receiver and along the O-line. It’s Week 18 and those questions are still being asked around these parts.

Graham: The Bills had a nice set of tight ends on paper about four months ago. Their offense was so leveled that sophomore Dalton Kincaid looked like Buffalo’s safest fantasy draft pick at any position aside from quarterback, but he has dealt with injuries. Kincaid and Dawson Knox have combined for a little bit more than Andrews has produced by himself. Ravens backup Isaiah Likely has only 9 fewer yards yet four more touchdowns than Kincaid. Buffalo’s receiving stats are very low across the board. Nobody might hit 1,000 yards receiving, and only Shakir might reach as many as 800 yards. Baltimore has six players who have gained more yards from scrimmage than the third-most productive Bill, third-string running back Ray Davis at just 566 yards.

Zrebiec: Three young Ravens (Flowers, Bateman and Likely) have had breakout-type years and Henry, as a 30-year-old, is probably having the second-best season of his potential Hall of Fame career. To me, that enhances Jackson’s candidacy, not detracts from it. So much of what the Ravens do offensively is based on Jackson’s improvisational skills. If you look at so many of their offensive highlights, they originate with Jackson doing something special. Just look at last week’s Christmas game. Two of their biggest plays — Andrews’ 67-yard catch and Likely’s 9-yard touchdown — came after Jackson made great plays to buy time and allow his pass catchers to ultimately get loose. I don’t want to take anything away from the supporting cast because the Ravens have guys who fit well on an offense designed around Jackson’s skill set.

Lamar Jackson is on the cusp of becoming the first quarterback in NFL history to pass for 4,000 yards and rush for 800 in a single season. (Tim Warner / Getty Images)

Graham: I feel like in many ways we’re talking about the same teams, except the Bills shed significant talent over the offseason while the Ravens acquired a really big offensive piece. Allen and Jackson make each team go with their bonkers playmaking skills. Unlike last year, Jackson’s stats are clearly better, but Allen created several scintillating moments in big games. One of the Bills’ two losses was an uninspiring performance in Baltimore, but in their other one against the Rams, he passed for three touchdowns and ran for three more, something that hadn’t been done since Otto Graham in the 1954 NFL title game. Allen threw for 362 yards with two TDs and ran for 68 yards with two TDs to snap the Lions’ 11-game win streak three games after ending the Chiefs’ 15-game win streak. Whether it should matter or not, many of Allen’s splashiest highlights happened on national television, such as the bananas sequence where he threw a touchdown pass to himself, thanks to Cooper’s lateral, in the snow against the 49ers.

Zrebiec: That’s fair. The argument for Jackson is going to start with the numbers. He leads the NFL in passer rating, yards per pass attempt, passing touchdown percentage, touchdown-to-interception ratio and dropback EPA (expected points added). He’s second in quarterback rushing yards, passing touchdowns and total touchdowns. It’s also the consistency. He has a quarterback rating over 100 in 13 games this year. He has three total touchdowns or more in nine games. So we’re talking about one of the best regular seasons by a quarterback in NFL history. In many other years, it would be a slam dunk. Jackson has certainly been better than he was in his two MVP seasons when he got 99 out of 100 first-place votes. But statistics don’t guarantee anything, specifically not this year when guys like Allen and Burrow are having such special seasons. Many voters look beyond the statistics, as they should.

Graham: If we go strictly by stats, Burrow might be a lock. But eight losses and dangling on the brink of playoff elimination for a month make him a long shot. Maybe if the Bengals squeak into the tournament he’ll draw some votes. And that would be just fine with me. Burrow has had that kind of season. The MVP decision always factors wins and will include how easily the Bills won the AFC East, a division many predicted would be claimed by the Miami Dolphins or New York Jets, as absurd as that sounds. But preseason expectations do play into voting — maybe not as much as Coach of the Year, but overachieving does count for something in some voters’ minds.

Zrebiec: I do think that matters, as does some of the other periphery stuff. I think the fact that Jackson has played a ton of prime-time/spotlight games over the past several weeks matters. And again late Saturday afternoon, when the Ravens play the Cleveland Browns, that will be the lone game in that time slot. If Jackson has another strong game, perhaps sets the single-season record for passer rating and becomes the first quarterback in NFL history to post 4,000 passing yards and 800 rushing yards in a single season, that could leave a final impression in the minds of voters.

But I think some of the more prominent talking heads declaring the race over two weeks ago were influential, too. Groupthink is a real thing. It certainly helped Jackson last year when the MVP race was declared over in Week 16 when he had his way with a very good San Francisco 49ers team on Christmas night. But I do think there is some Jackson MVP fatigue, too. Tony Romo brought this up last week. It’s human nature in many ways to embrace something new, something different. Allen has given voters every reason to with how he’s played.

The MVP case for Josh Allen, who is doing 'something totally different': Our deep dive on the race