The Satchel: Focus, and ire, turns to Bills GM Brandon Beane in critical offseason
The general manager's moves are being called into question after the Eagles dismantled the Chiefs in the Super Bowl.
www.nytimes.com
Whatever happens in the Super Bowl always causes reflexive projection.
We tend to see how the game was won – in this specific case how the Kansas City Chiefs were obliterated – and adopt those concepts as a fail-safe method to get the job done next year.
That temptation is exponentially more obvious for Buffalo Bills fans, who watched the Philadelphia Eagles’ defense turn Patrick Mahomes into Tyler Thigpen without ever calling a blitz. But the idea that Buffalo must assimilate Philly’s approach on the fly isn’t so simple to implement and might not even be the way to go.
As submissions to The Satchel show, Bills fans are more frustrated than ever with general manager Brandon Beane. After years of coach Sean McDermott enduring most of the critical focus for the organization’s inability to get past Kansas City and into the Super Bowl, we’re seeing a shift toward the man who assembles the roster.
As expected, the most common questions pertain to Buffalo’s defensive shortcomings, whether trading for star edge rushers Myles Garrett and Maxx Crosby would be wise and the absence of higher-caliber offensive weaponry that might’ve made a difference in the AFC Championship Game.
The Super Bowl made me feel like the Bills are further away than their performance this season suggested. The Bills’ defense can’t do what that Eagles’ defense did or anything close to it. It feels like they are too many pieces away — especially considering Beane’s inability to hit home runs on a first- or second-round defensive prospect outside of Ed Oliver. Am I wrong? — Jordan G.
Buffalo remains very close, but right now I don’t blame you for feeling pessimistic. The result last Sunday presented a paradox for fans. The vast majority wanted Kansas City to get dogwalked, but as that wish came true, anxieties spiked over feelings of deeper inadequacy. I suppose the sweet spot would’ve been a narrow Kansas City loss with both teams scoring in the teens, but Philadelphia was too damn good on the sport’s grandest stage.
Nevertheless, the Super Bowl is but one game and not the NFL’s Rosetta stone. The Bills might’ve matched up better against Eagles defensive coordinator Vic Fangio’s game plan. For instance, the Bills’ offensive line was superior and their run game more dynamic than what the Chiefs offered.
You never know.
Turning a solitary snapshot into a mandate is dangerous. The Bills’ scouting department and coaching staff will adjust, but any single opponent is a moving target.
The Chiefs will make changes, too, because they won’t be the same squad in 2025. As long as Mahomes and Andy Reid are together, they’ll remain contenders, but their organization is facing potentially transformative roster maneuvers. Even if tight end Travis Kelce returns, his skills have eroded. Although wideout Rashee Rice will return from injury, DeAndre Hopkins, Marquise Brown and Justin Watson are free agents, as are linebacker Nick Bolton and safety Justin Reid.
Perhaps most significant is an offensive line that already has $71 million committed to next year’s books and likely will lose Pro Bowl right guard Trey Smith, who’s expected to command top dollar in free agency.
That said, Buffalo does have obvious defensive holes to fill (we will get into that below) and requires more difference-makers on both sides of scrimmage. The reason Josh Allen won MVP is that, by leading the Bills to 13 wins and a fifth straight AFC East crown, he accomplished more with less than Mahomes and Baltimore Ravens quarterback Lamar Jackson did.
Time to give him more substantive help.
How likely is a trade for Myles Garrett? How much would that improve the Bills’ current defense versus having a decent draft? — Stephen O.
Is there any realistic way the Bills can trade for both Garrett and Crosby (even if they have to give up Groot)? In general, what are the odds they bring back Amari Cooper next season? — Nicholas J.
In Buffalo’s favor regarding potential Garrett and Crosby trades is that they belong to organizations that have made truly dumb decisions in recent years. The native Clevelander in me wonders if the Browns would take Von Miller for Garrett straight up. Yes, that’s a joke, albeit not a funny one in that town.
Unless the Browns or Las Vegas Raiders fall into my stereotype, either sackmaster will command significant draft capital to acquire — if made available at all. Each has two years remaining on his contract (about $40 million remaining for Garrett, $44 million for Crosby) and will want an extension package to be completely happy.
The Bills own the 30th, 56th and 62nd overall picks and none in the third round. Buffalo might not be able to compete with what another club is willing to send Cleveland’s or Las Vegas’ way. Maybe, as Nicholas mentions, Buffalo could sweeten the pot with edge rusher Gregory Rousseau. The 30th overall pick from 2021 has been pretty good, though far from fearsome.
Garrett is a risky proposition despite a fourth All-Pro campaign. He is 29 but just completed his eighth season. That’s a delicate juncture, our Mike Sando wrote this week. Career comparisons show elite defensive linemen rarely maintain elite performance so deep into a career.
You also wonder whether Beane will touch the hot, older-edge-rusher stove again. Granted, Miller was 33 in his first Buffalo season, but that six-year, $120 million transaction has been an organizational pockmark.
Crosby seems like the more palatable and doable acquisition. He will be 28 in August and just finished his sixth season. Crosby is not as decorated as Garrett and is coming off a down season of 7.5 sacks in 12 games.
As for receiver Amari Cooper, I think the only way he comes back is if he’s so enamored with the Bills organization that he is willing to accept a discounted salary. Cooper will turn 31 in June, and his individual statistics plummeted. But his presence opened the offense and helped increase the Bills’ scoring output. Just two seasons ago, the five-time Pro Bowler caught 72 passes for 1,250 yards and five touchdowns.
Cooper’s agent has plenty of promotional material to work with. Buffalo won’t be interested in a bidding war.
The NFC East has won multiple Super Bowls with a focus on the trenches. It’s old-school, but as shown in that laugher of a Super Bowl versus the Chiefs, the Eagles dominated in the trenches and beat the best QB in the league. Will the Bills acknowledge that by fortifying their D-line? — Michael P.
The entire defensive front must improve, but I’ll go a step further: Neglecting the interior line has proven Buffalo’s most glaring issue.
As mentioned earlier, it’s too simple to say “Buffalo’s just gotta do what Philly did, and Mahomes will quiver like Jell-O.”
But the Eagles’ down linemen made their Bills counterparts look like a bunch of minor leaguers.
Eagles edge rusher Josh Sweat had the splashiest individual stat line with 2.5 sacks, but a crew of nasty defensive tackles wrought devastation versus the run and the pass. Fangio called zero blitzes. That allowed the Eagles to drop seven defenders in coverage.
Defensive tackles Jordan Davis, Jalen Carter, Milton Williams and Moro Ojomo combined for three sacks, another quarterback hit, a forced Mahomes fumble, a recovery and a rushing tackle for loss.
Oliver, meanwhile, has not been played like a Bills foundational piece. The six-year pro has been too inconsistent to be counted upon as a difference-maker.
After selecting Oliver ninth overall in 2019, Beane didn’t draft a defensive tackle until DeWayne Carter in the third round last year. Carter started three of 11 games, missing time with a wrist injury, but was a healthy scratch throughout the playoffs. The only other defensive tackle drafted during the Beane-McDermott era was 2018 third-rounder Harrison Phillips, signed by the Minnesota Vikings when his rookie contract expired in 2022.
Buffalo has spackled the position with veterans such as DaQuan Jones, Jordan Phillips, Tim Settle, Star Lotulelei and Vernon Butler.
Eagles GM Howie Roseman, meanwhile, has loaded up on trench prospects.
Roseman took Davis 13th overall in 2022 and just a year later drafted Jalen Carter ninth overall and Ojomo in the seventh round. Williams was a 2021 third-round pick, making him the unit’s graybeard at 25 years old. The fifth defensive tackle on the Eagles’ 53-man roster is the only one they didn’t draft: Thomas Booker was a Houston Texans fifth-rounder in 2022.
Should Brandon Beane be getting more heat for his part in the Bills’ shortcomings? If I’m not mistaken, he has not drafted a single All-Pro or first-team Pro Bowler in his tenure other than Josh Allen. — Tom S.
Beane should very much be under the microscope this offseason. The Samuel signing, injured or not, was dumb. He served no purpose. His draft record — do we still think trading Worthy to the Chiefs was a good idea? Here we are saying we need a speed guy AGAIN! The Miller contract killed us. Knox’s contract is INSANE! Beane sucks! – Steve D.
These are just two examples of the many submissions that questioned Beane’s job performance. I don’t necessarily agree with Steve, but I wanted to show the level of disgust some Bills fans are feeling about the second-most-popular GM in Bills history behind Hall of Famer Bill Polian.
Beane has drafted Pro Bowlers other than Allen, and we shall forevermore heap bonus points on Beane for nailing a franchise’s most critical pick. Polian got his bronze bust in Canton thanks in large part to his predecessor drafting Jim Kelly and owning the No. 1 choice the year Peyton Manning turned pro. But I digress … I assume “first-team Pro Bowler” means not an alternate, so that would eliminate tight end Dawson Knox, but Beane did snag Tremaine Edmunds and James Cook. (Left tackle Dion Dawkins, linebacker Matt Milano and cornerback Tre’Davious White were rookies when Beane came aboard in 2017, but Doug Whaley was the GM for that class.)
Overall, Beane’s draft ledger is blotchy. He has identified day-three gems such as receivers Khalil Shakir and Gabriel Davis, nickelback Taron Johnson, cornerback Christian Benford and safety Damar Hamlin.
The first two rounds haven’t produced enough. Cook and right guard O’Cyrus Torrence have been second-round successes, but first-round cornerback Kaiir Elam reminded us all in the AFC title game why he doesn’t warrant a uniform some weeks.
And with as many swings as Beane has taken on edge rushers (A.J. Epenesa in 2020, Rousseau and Boogie Basham in 2021), you’d imagine at least one would become a reliable powerhouse. Instead, that role has been a perennial question mark.
As for the 2024 rookies, it’s too soon to judge, but folks will be sore about Kansas City receiver Xavier Worthy and Philly defensive back Cooper DeJean making highlight-reel plays in the Super Bowl until the players Buffalo collected within the first two rounds step forward in a humongous way.
Worthy looked sensational down the homestretch and in the Super Bowl caught eight passes for 157 yards and two TDs. I don’t care whether you consider those garbage-time numbers or not; they ought to aggravate Bills fans who feared exactly that kind of production the moment Beane traded out of that 28th slot. The Bills eventually turned that pick into Coleman and DeWayne Carter, non-entities in the playoffs.
One reader wonders what the Bills’ season would have looked like if Buffalo had drafted Cooper DeJean instead of Keon Coleman. (Denny Medley / Imagn Images)
If the Bills had drafted Cooper DeJean instead of Keon Coleman, do you believe we would have been in the Super Bowl? — Kelly A.
My first thought was a hard no. Then I wrote out both sides of the scenario, deleted my response and started over.
If we look explicitly at the AFC Championship Game, then I believe the answer is an emphatic yes.
My first deliberation encompassed the entire season, and in that vein, I don’t believe one defensive back would’ve made a difference for Buffalo in 2024 because you’d also need to replace Coleman with another wideout. The Bills’ next draft choice was safety Cole Bishop at 60th overall, and the receiver options there included the likes of Malachi Corley (his most memorable play for the New York Jets was fumbling a TD celebration before he crossed the goal line), Jermaine Burton, Roman Wilson, Jalen McMillan and Luke McCaffrey.
So the Bills couldn’t have afforded to wait on a receiver had they gone a different direction with their first pick.
I also reasoned that Coleman remains a worthwhile prospect. Despite missing four games, he finished second with 556 receiving yards and four TDs while averaging a robust 19.2 yards a catch.
But in that elimination game, the Bills lost 32-29 and could’ve used a catalyst.
Coleman played 53 percent of the snaps that night, catching one of his four targets for 12 yards. The Bills’ defense struggled to make stops. Their secondary was shorthanded. Top safety Taylor Rapp couldn’t play because of a hip injury. Bishop replaced him after starting just four games and playing 34 percent of Buffalo’s defensive snaps all season. In the first quarter, Benford suffered his second concussion in eight days. That pressed Elam into service. Elam was overmatched.
DeJean, meanwhile, has proven himself a versatile agitator already. He won the Eagles’ starting nickelback job by Week 6 and is a possible heir to star boundary cornerback Darius Slay’s gig. DeJean finished with 51 tackles, three for losses, half a sack, six pass breakups, a forced fumble and three recoveries while handling punt return duties. He played over 90 percent of Philly’s defensive snaps in each of its four postseason games. He recorded 18 tackles, four pass breakups, a fumble recovery and that rollicking interception return for a touchdown in the Super Bowl.
That’s the kind of player Buffalo’s defense could’ve used that fateful night in Arrowhead Stadium. Coleman’s production was easily replaceable, while DeJean would’ve upgraded the Bills’ secondary over the course of the entire game.
Swap them out that night, and the Bills go to the Super Bowl — final answer.
What’s more likely, the Bills use those three picks in the first two rounds to trade up or on a defensive end trade? — Mark K.
Three picks within the first two rounds sounds cushy. Yet when you consider the slots, the buying power isn’t as attractive.
Most efficient option of the three options is keeping the picks and continuing to fortify the roster with young talent. Allen is a relative bargain given that he earned MVP as the 14th-highest-paid quarterback. Still, his contract mitigates what can be spent elsewhere. That’s how every team must navigate the luxury of a no-doubt franchise QB.
As such, it becomes increasingly imperative to collect as many contributors on rookie contracts as competitively feasible. This year’s draft class is considered deep at edge rusher, defensive tackle and cornerback. That bodes well for Buffalo’s needs.
But you asked for my prediction.
Beane is a certified wheeler-dealer. He has a long history of jockeying forward in the draft order, with last year’s retreat a unique exception. He also is unafraid to trade premium draft assets on a superstar solution.
Even so, my prediction is that Beane trades up a little bit, finessing his penchant for seizing a player he really wants while not depleting his reserves significantly.
If you were GMBB and you could get a second-round pick in this year’s draft for Dalton Kincaid, would you do it? — James B.
Whoa, fans are getting impatient in The Satchel.
A year ago, Kincaid was a darling. He enjoyed a rookie campaign that gave fans and fantasy owners the vapors. BetOnline listed Kincaid’s 2024 over-under totals at 77.5 catches, 800.5 receiving yards and 5.5 receiving touchdowns. He was painted the Bills’ safest fantasy pick after Allen and Cook, the guy who would generate the most targets.
Kincaid flopped. He battled collarbone and knee injuries, but missed only four games. He caught 44 passes for 448 yards and two touchdowns with six drops in the regular season. In the playoffs, Kincaid mustered six receptions for 71 yards and no touchdowns with two drops. The Bills’ final offensive play was Kincaid flubbing what would have been a fourth-down conversion in field-goal territory, sealing the Chiefs’ three-point victory.
Kincaid didn’t develop as a blocker either. Knox played a higher percentage of available snaps. Backup offensive lineman Alec Anderson was inserted as an eligible receiver often.
Beane remarked at his postmortem news conference Kincaid needs to get stronger to endure the NFL’s rigors. That’s the type of message you’d expect for a rookie.
But, no, I would not trade Kincaid for a second-round pick. I maintain higher hopes for him than that.
Does it make sense for the Bills to use a decent draft pick for a cost-controlled backup to Josh Allen? If not this year, when? — Ajagg
I love this topic because I detest the “It doesn’t matter because if Josh gets hurt, then our season is screwed anyway” mentality. Kurt Warner, Jim Plunkett and Doug Williams likely agree with me.
Besides, Bills fans should value their history. They were beaten by backup Jeff Hostetler in their first Super Bowl and wouldn’t reach their third Super Bowl without backup Frank Reich’s heroics.
As for this question, I’d like to know what defines a “decent draft pick,” but generally speaking I don’t think it’s worth better than a day-three developmental prospect, and the Bills already have four quarterbacks they like under contract.
Back when I covered the AFC East for ESPN, one of the league’s more fascinating stories was how New England Patriots coach Bill Belichick approached backing up an active QB icon.
Tom Brady became the Patriots’ starting quarterback and won the Super Bowl in 2001, but three months later they drafted Rohan Davey in the fourth round anyway. Belichick took Kliff Kingsbury in the sixth round in 2003 and Matt Cassel in the seventh round in 2005.
Belichick spent third-round picks on Kevin O’Connell in 2008, Ryan Mallett in 2011 and Jacoby Brissett in 2016, and ventured a second-round pick on Jimmy Garoppolo in 2014.
All that draft capital, and the only one to make a mark was Cassel, a project who hadn’t started a game since high school and attempted 33 passes over his entire USC career. In 2008, Cassel quarterbacked the Patriots to an 11-5 record when Brady suffered a season-ending knee injury in the opener.
“If you’re trying to get your backup guy to eventually be your starter or be able to go in and win for you, and you draft a young player like Cassel, you know he’s not ready that first year,” Belichick told me in 2009. “But you hope in time you can get him ready.”
Were those earlier draft picks wasted?
Insurance is a commodity, but they might’ve been starters at other positions.
Belichick’s policy was that a backup quarterback be a stabilizer or a project.
“That’s the problem with a young quarterback,” Belichick said. “It takes a little bit of time to develop them. The problem with the old quarterback is it’s a year-to-year proposition.
“It’s a combination of how far you really think you’ll be able to go with that player and if you feel he’s keeping it warm until you had your starter back — but then you’re looking for someone else.”
The Bills haven’t developed a rookie quarterback since the Teapot Dome Scandal. They’ve drafted only two others in the Beane/McDermott era: fifth-rounders Nathan Peterman and Jake Fromm in 2017 and 2020.
As for veterans, they’ve cycled through Mitchell Trubisky, Case Keenum, Matt Barkley, Kyle Allen and Derek Anderson. Trubisky, third-stringer Mike White and Shane Buechele are under contract through 2025. It would be Trubisky’s third Bills season in four years.