TheAthletic: NFL Power Rankings Week 14: Bills, Eagles peaking, plus worst-case scenarios

The Week 14 NFL Power Rankings don’t want to be a downer, but since we did best-case scenarios last week, it’s only fair to consider the worst-case scenarios for all 32 teams.

For teams like the Eagles, who made a real run at the No. 1 spot this week, that’s a relative thing, but for lots of teams at the bottom, these might feel way too close to reality.

1. Detroit Lions (11-1)​

Last week: 1

Thursday: Beat Chicago Bears 23-20

Worst-case scenario: An early playoff loss

The Lions won their 10th straight game on Thursday, but they didn’t look unbeatable, scoring only once in the final 33 minutes and letting the Bears back into the game in the second half. Detroit still has to play the Packers, Bills, 49ers and Vikings, so it’s going to be tested, which might be good preparation for the playoffs. If this team loses early after all the expectations it has built up, Lions fans will be gutted.

Up next: vs. Green Bay Packers, Thursday, 8:15 p.m. ET

2. Philadelphia Eagles (10-2)​

Last week: 2

Sunday: Beat Baltimore Ravens 24-19

Worst-case scenario: That they’re peaking too soon

Until Sunday, there was a possibility that Philadelphia was a paper tiger because its best win was all the way back in Week 1 against Green Bay in Brazil. That narrative died in Baltimore on Sunday as the Eagles held the Ravens to 10 points in the final three quarters, and Saquon Barkley rushed for 107 yards to top 1,400 for the season. Since Week 6, Philadelphia has allowed 15.3 points per game, which is second in the league.

Up next: vs. Carolina Panthers, Sunday, 1 p.m. ET

https://twitter.com/x/status/1863374624953606577

3. Buffalo Bills (10-2)​

Last week: 3

Sunday: Beat San Francisco 49ers 35-10

Worst-case scenario: Derrick Henry going wild in the playoffs

There’s not much to pick on in Buffalo after the Bills trounced the 49ers at snowy Highmark Stadium on Sunday night, but looking ahead to the playoffs, this team might be vulnerable against a potent rushing attack. The Niners rushed for 153 yards, and Buffalo is 23rd in the number of 10-plus yard runs allowed (46) and 19th in explosive play rate surrendered overall (11.3 percent) this season. Josh Allen grimacing and holding his left hand after being tackled in the first quarter wasn’t great either.

Up next: at Los Angeles Rams, Sunday, 4:25 p.m. ET

4. Green Bay Packers (9-3)​

Last week: 5

Thursday: Beat Miami Dolphins 30-17

Worst-case scenario: They’ve made the NFC West angry

The Packers, who got 117 scrimmage yards from Josh Jacobs against Miami on Thursday, have handled the NFC West easily this season, beating the Rams, Cardinals and 49ers by an average score of 32-14. Green Bay would be playing NFC West leader Seattle (its Week 15 opponent) if the playoffs were to start now. Could that division be due to get some playoff revenge? An early loss would be a disappointment as well as the Packers are playing right now.

Up next: at Detroit Lions, Thursday, 8:15 p.m. ET

5. Minnesota Vikings (10-2)​

Last week: 6

Sunday: Beat Arizona Cardinals 23-22

Worst-case scenario: The Sam Darnold detractors are right

The Vikings quarterback is doing just about all he can to revive his career. He threw for 235 yards and two touchdowns Sunday and is seventh in the league in passer rating (102.5), but even Minnesota fans remain nervous. They were booing an offense that only had six points in the first half Sunday, but Darnold threw both his touchdown passes in the final 17 minutes.

Up next: vs. Atlanta Falcons, Sunday, 1 p.m. ET

6. Kansas City Chiefs (11-1)​

Last week: 4

Friday: Beat Las Vegas Raiders 19-17

Worst-case scenario: The fairy dust wears off

The Chiefs are 11-1 despite being 11th in the league in point margin at plus-54. Since 2000, 23 teams have won 11 or more games by Week 13, and the Chiefs’ point differential is last by 34 points, according to TruMedia. Only three of the teams had a point margin of less than 100. The other 11-1 team this year, the Lions, has a point margin of plus-180. Patrick Mahomes is 17th (among qualified QBs) in the league in passer rating (92.2), and the defense is 27th in EPA (minus-7.5) since Week 8. How much longer can this last?

Up next: vs. Los Angeles Chargers, Sunday, 8:20 p.m. ET

Russell Wilson had the Steelers offense cooking on Sunday in Cincinnati. (Andy Lyons / Getty Images)

7. Pittsburgh Steelers (9-3)​

Last week: 8

Sunday: Beat Cincinnati Bengals 44-38

Worst-case scenario: They melt against playoff quarterbacks

The offense took a step forward Sunday with its highest scoring output since 2018 (and 520 yards), and Pittsburgh needed every one of those points because Joe Burrow had 309 yards and three touchdowns. Russell Wilson passed for 414 yards Sunday, the second-highest, single-game total of his career.

Up next: vs. Cleveland Browns, Sunday, 1 p.m. ET

8. Baltimore Ravens (8-5)​

Last week: 7

Sunday: Lost to Philadelphia Eagles 24-19

Worst-case scenario: Moving on from Justin Tucker

“I’m not really planning on doing that right now,” John Harbaugh said after the game. The fact that it came up seems ridiculous considering Tucker not long ago was the best kicker in the game, but he missed three kicks (two field goals and an extra point) for the first time in his career Sunday, and he is 19 of 27 on field goals this season. That’s a 70.4 percent success rate. The lowest of the first 12 years of his career was 82.5 in 2015. He has missed seven field goals in the Ravens’ five losses.

Up next: Bye

9. Washington Commanders (8-5)​

Last week: 11

Sunday: Beat Tennessee Titans 42-19

Worst-case scenario: The Titans defense just quit

Did Commanders offensive coordinator Kliff Kingsbury put to bed the idea that his unit is destined to be exposed down the stretch or was Sunday just about the Tennessee defense? The Titans are 27th in scoring defense (27.7 ppg), and there’s not much left to play for in Tennessee. Still, the Commanders ended a three-game losing streak as rookie quarterback Jayden Daniels threw three touchdown passes and ran for a score.

Up next: Bye

10. Denver Broncos (8-5)​

Last week: 10

Monday: Beat Cleveland Browns 41-32

Worst-case scenario: Facing any more of Sean Payton’s former players

Browns quarterback Jameis Winston and receiver Jerry Jeudy both had career highs facing their former head coach. Winston, who played for Payton in New Orleans, passed for 497 yards, although he helped out his old boss by throwing three interceptions, including two pick-sixes. Jeudy, whom Payton traded out of Denver last year for a fifth- and sixth-round pick, had 235 receiving yards, the most in NFL history by a player against his former team. The Browns finished with 552 total yards.

Up next: Bye

11. Los Angeles Chargers (8-4)​

Last week: 9

Sunday: Beat Atlanta Falcons 17-13

Worst-case scenario: The offense never clicks

The Chargers gave up five sacks Sunday to an Atlanta team that came into the game with 10 for the season and won despite gaining only 187 yards. Los Angeles is 18th in scoring (21.7 ppg) and 31st in offensive success rate (39.9 percent) even with Ladd McConkey playing great. The rookie wide receiver had nine catches for 117 yards Sunday, and only Jeudy (462) has had more than McConkey’s 323 receiving yards in the last three weeks.

Up next: at Kansas City Chiefs, Sunday, 8:20 p.m. ET

Running back Zach Charbonnet and the Seahawks rallied to beat the Jets and stay atop the NFC West. (Mark Smith / Imagn Images)

12. Seattle Seahawks (7-5)​

Last week: 12

Sunday: Beat New York Jets 26-21

Worst-case scenario: The pass blocking gets Geno Smith hurt

Smith was sacked three more times Sunday, and the Seahawks are 28th in the league in pressure percentage allowed (38.4 percent), according to TruMedia. If Seattle can keep Smith healthy, it may be on to something. He is second in the league in passing yards per game among qualified QBs (270.1), and the Seahawks lead the NFC West by a game. Sunday’s play of the day was 300-pound defensive lineman Leonard Williams returning an Aaron Rodgers interception 92 yards for a touchdown.

Up next: at Arizona Cardinals, Sunday, 4:05 p.m. ET

13. Houston Texans (8-5)​

Last week: 13

Sunday: Beat Jacksonville Jaguars 23-20

Worst-case scenario: C.J. Stroud’s rookie year was a mirage

The Texans’ second-year quarterback is 25th in EPA per dropback (minus-.01) and 23rd (among qualified QBs) in passer rating (87.9) this year. Since Week 7, he is 27th in touchdown-to-interception ratio with five of each. He was good enough to beat Jacksonville on Sunday (22 of 34 for 242 yards and a touchdown), but that’s not the standard by which Stroud and the Texans will be judged this season.

Up next: Bye

14. Tampa Bay Buccaneers (6-6)​

Last week: 16

Sunday: Beat Carolina Panthers 26-23

Worst-case scenario: False hope

There’s no 6-6 team in the league feeling better than Tampa Bay. The Buccaneers looked out of the NFC South race after Chris Godwin’s season-ending injury and a four-game losing streak, but the Falcons let them back in. The Athletic’s playoff projections give the Bucs a 41 percent chance of winning the division. They face only one more team with a winning record.

Up next: vs. Las Vegas Raiders, Sunday, 1 p.m. ET

15. Arizona Cardinals (6-6)​

Last week: 14

Sunday: Lost to Minnesota Vikings 23-22

Worst-case scenario: Missing this opportunity

The Cardinals had won four straight games and led the NFC West entering their bye in Week 11. They looked like they might be on their way to their second playoff game since 2015. Since then, they have lost two straight, and they play Seattle this week in a game that could do a lot more damage to their playoff hopes.

Up next: vs. Seattle Seahawks, Sunday, 4:05 p.m. ET

 

[HipKat]

16. Los Angeles Rams (6-6)​

Last week: 19

Sunday: Beat New Orleans Saints 21-14

Worst-case scenario: The glory days just don’t come back

The Rams kept themselves on the fringe of the playoff race Sunday, but their ceiling looks pretty low. This week, they face a true contender in the Bills, and the differences probably will be stark. Los Angeles is 21-25 since its Super Bowl win and looks like it’s just quietly going through the end stages of 36-year-old Matthew Stafford’s career.

Up next: vs. Buffalo Bills, Sunday, 4:25 p.m. ET

https://twitter.com/x/status/1863366782058123302

17. Atlanta Falcons (6-6)​

Last week: 15

Sunday: Lost to Los Angeles Chargers 17-13

Worst-case scenario: The plan blows up

Most of the NFL world raised its eyebrows after the Falcons drafted Michael Penix Jr. with the No. 8 pick shortly after having signed Kirk Cousins to the largest total free-agency deal in league history. Atlanta assured everyone it had a plan: Let Cousins handle the present and transition to Penix in the future. However, this team has given up a comfortable NFC South lead by losing three straight games in which Cousins has six interceptions and no touchdown passes.

Up next: at Minnesota Vikings, Sunday, 1 p.m. ET

18. Cincinnati Bengals (4-8)​

Last week: 17

Sunday: Lost to Pittsburgh Steelers 44-38

Worst-case scenario: Wasting this Joe Burrow season

Burrow leads the league in passing yards (3,337) and touchdown passes (30). He is sixth in EPA per dropback (.15). He threw for 309 yards and three touchdowns Sunday, and the Bengals still lost. There aren’t a lot of quarterbacks as good as Burrow, but they’re probably all going to be in the playoffs and most of them have better defenses than Burrow does. This team, which also has the NFL’s leading receiver in Ja’Marr Chase (1,142 yards and 13 touchdowns), now has a 3 percent chance of making the playoffs, according to The Athletic’s projections.

Up next: at Dallas Cowboys, Monday, 8:15 p.m. ET

19. Indianapolis Colts (6-7)​

Last week: 21

Sunday: Beat New England Patriots 25-24

Worst-case scenario: Anthony Richardson doesn’t work out

The second-year quarterback has provided a roller-coaster experience for Indianapolis fans. Right now, he’s at a peak after leading an 80-yard, game-winning drive that he capped with a two-point conversion run. Expectations are very high, but here’s a word of caution: Since returning from his benching in Week 11, he is 21st in EPA per dropback (.01), 30th in passer rating (75.9) and 33rd in completion percentage (52.4). He threw for 109 yards and had a 55.7 passer rating Sunday.

Up next: Bye

20. Miami Dolphins (5-7)​

Last week: 18

Thursday: Lost to Green Bay Packers 30-17

Worst-case scenario: Winter

We would say a cold playoff game, but this team probably isn’t going to the playoffs. The Dolphins have lost 12 straight games when it was 40 degrees or lower at kickoff, and quarterback Tua Tagovailoa is 0-6 all time in such games. Maybe more depressingly for Miami, the Dolphins are 0-4 this season against teams projected to make the playoffs, and the average margin of defeat was 14.5 points.

Up next: vs. New York Jets, Sunday, 1 p.m. ET

21. Dallas Cowboys (5-7)​

Last week: 23

Thursday: Beat New York Giants 27-20

Worst-case scenario: Lying to themselves

Micah Parsons said on FOX after Thursday’s win: “I believe we’re going to turn it around and make a run.” Dallas has a less than 1 percent chance to make the postseason, according to The Athletic’s playoff projections. The Cowboys’ overconfidence in their contender status is the chief reason this team has one playoff win since 2018.

Up next: vs. Cincinnati Bengals, Monday, 8:15 p.m. ET

A challenging season for the 49ers took a turn for the worse on Sunday night with Christian McCaffrey suffering a knee injury. (Timothy T Ludwig / Getty Images)

22. San Francisco 49ers (5-7)​

Last week: 20

Sunday: Lost to Buffalo Bills 35-10

Worst-case scenario: The window is closed

After three straight seasons of advancing to the NFC Championship Game or beyond, the 49ers look broken, particularly after Kyle Shanahan announced Christian McCaffrey appears to have suffered a season-ending knee injury. It’s been that kind of season for the 49ers, who got 94 passing yards out of Brock Purdy against the Bills. San Francisco is 19th in point differential (minus-25). That’s on pace to be its worst since 2018, Shanahan’s second season.

Up next: vs. Chicago Bears, Sunday, 4:25 p.m. ET

23. Chicago Bears (4-8)​

Last week: 22

Thursday: Lost to Detroit Lions 23-20

Worst-case scenario: More national TV games

It’s bad enough for the Bears that they have lost six straight. It makes it worse that there are so many witnesses. Chicago’s losing streak started with its famous Hail Mary loss to the Commanders in a game that was flexed into CBS’ marquee afternoon time slot. On Thursday, the Bears played the opening Thanksgiving game and suffered more embarrassment due to stupifying end-of-game clock management. Guess what? They are scheduled to play on “Monday Night Football” in Week 15 and “Thursday Night Football” in Week 17.

Up next: at San Francisco 49ers, Sunday, 4:25 p.m. ET

24. New Orleans Saints (4-8)​

Last week: 24

Sunday: Lost to Los Angeles Rams 21-14

Worst-case scenario: Taysom Hill is never the same

When Hill left Sunday’s game with a season-ending knee injury, he had played five snaps at quarterback, 20 at wide receiver, three at running back, three at tight end and eight at fullback. The 34-year-old Swiss Army knife has been a delightful outlier throughout his eight-year NFL career, which has included 33 rushing touchdowns, 11 receiving touchdowns and 11 passing touchdowns.

Up next: at New York Giants, Sunday, 1 p.m. ET

25. Cleveland Browns (3-9)​

Last week: 25

Monday: Lost to Denver Broncos 41-32

Worst-case scenario: Being stuck here

The Browns have had two 11-win seasons since 2007. Everything else has been eight wins or fewer, and Cleveland has won only one playoff game since 1994. After Monday night’s game, they are slotted eighth in the upcoming draft, maybe high enough to get an immediate difference-maker, maybe not. With no clear answer at quarterback, there’s a real chance the Browns’ reality won’t be changing soon.

Up next: at Pittsburgh Steelers, Sunday, 1 p.m. ET

26. Carolina Panthers (3-9)​

Last week: 28

Sunday: Lost to Tampa Bay Buccaneers 26-23

Worst-case scenario: Bryce Young costs them more

The trade for the No. 1 pick to draft Young already has cost Carolina wide receiver DJ Moore and the chance to draft Caleb Williams (or Jayden Daniels or Drake Maye), not to mention Darnell Wright, Tyrique Stevenson and Tory Taylor, all starters for the Bears. Young is 16th in EPA per dropback (.04) since returning as the starter in Week 9, but if the Panthers bring him back and the progress stops, he will have cost them another season.

Up next: at Philadelphia Eagles, Sunday, 1 p.m. ET

https://twitter.com/x/status/1863377472013640044

27. New England Patriots (3-10)​

Last week: 27

Sunday: Lost to Indianapolis Colts 25-24

Worst-case scenario: Mike Vrabel succeeds at his next job

Patriots fans can’t seem to fully enjoy the emergence of quarterback Drake Maye because of their frustration with first-year head coach Jerod Mayo. New England could have had former Patriots linebacker Mike Vrabel this offseason had owner Robert Kraft not decided on Mayo years ago. Vrabel is likely to land somewhere else in 2025. If he wins, New England fans will be livid.

Up next: Bye

28. Tennessee Titans (3-9)​

Last week: 26

Sunday: Lost to Washington Commanders 42-19

Worst-case scenario: Making the wrong Will Levis decision

At the moment, the Titans have the seventh pick in the draft. That’s plenty high enough to get a new quarterback. If they want one. In his second year, Levis is a kind of Rorschach test. You can see what you want to. He has enough physical attributes that it could work, but he’s had a negative EPA per dropback in seven of his nine games this season. Making the right call probably will determine head coach Brian Callahan’s future in Tennessee.

Up next: vs. Jacksonville Jaguars, Sunday, 1 p.m. ET

29. New York Jets (3-9)​

Last week: 29

Sunday: Lost to Seattle Seahawks 26-21

Worst-case scenario: Aaron Rodgers won’t leave

Obviously, the Jets can control that, but they have gotten themselves into this mess by acquiescing to everything Rodgers has wanted. The 41-year-old quarterback is under contract for one more season and probably doesn’t have anywhere else to go as the starting quarterback. He’s now 4-9 as the starter and one of the wins he gets credit for is the 2023 opener in which he played four snaps. What if he convinces the Jets to give it one more shot?

Up next: at Miami Dolphins, Sunday, 1 p.m. ET

30. Las Vegas Raiders (2-10)​

Last week: 30

Friday: Lost to Kansas City Chiefs 19-17

Worst-case scenario: Treading more water

The Raiders haven’t been relevant since 2016 and that was a very brief blip. They’ve had two winning seasons since 2002. This team is worse than irrelevant. It’s bad. The Raiders, who have tried Gardner Minshew, Aidan O’Connell and Desmond Ridder at quarterback, are 29th in point margin (minus-110) and haven’t won since Week 4.

Up next: at Tampa Bay Buccaneers, Sunday, 1 p.m. ET

31. Jacksonville Jaguars (2-10)​

Last week: 31

Sunday: Lost to Houston Texans 23-20

Worst-case scenario: Trevor Lawrence doesn’t work out

Lawrence’s disappointing season got worse Sunday when he left the game with a concussion caused by a late hit from Azeez Al-Shaair that triggered a brawl. It would be an understatement to say Lawrence’s career hasn’t worked like the Jaguars planned when they took him No. 1 in 2021. He’s 26th in EPA per dropback since then (minus-.01), and there’s no discernible progress. He’s 27th in EPA per dropback this year (minus-.02).

Up next: at Tennessee Titans, Sunday, 1 p.m. ET

32. New York Giants (2-10)​

Last week: 32

Thursday: Lost to Dallas Cowboys 27-20

Worst-case scenario: More of this

The Giants are 8-21 in the last two seasons, and they just cut the quarterback they gave a four-year, $160 million extension to in 2023. Under head coach Brian Daboll and GM Joe Schoen, the Giants ended up paying $82 million of that deal for a 3-13 record out of Jones. The team’s quarterback will be new in 2025 (New York has the No. 3 pick right now), and the coaching staff and front office might be, too.

Up next: vs. New Orleans Saints, Sunday, 1 p.m. ET