Bills might have best chance at elusive No. 1 seed this season, plus a look at Saints matchup
The Bills have long coveted the No. 1 seed and all that comes with it.
www.nytimes.com
Fresh off their mini-bye following a Thursday night win in Week 3, the Buffalo Bills returned to Orchard Park during the week with an undefeated record and a matchup against a New Orleans Saints team many believe is rebuilding in 2025. And along with it, being at home, the Bills are the heaviest favorites of any team on the Week 4 slate.
As they prepare for their out-of-conference tilt with the 0-3 Saints, it’s an ideal time to look at the bigger picture. That picture contains a potential feat that the Josh Allen, Sean McDermott and Brandon Beane-led Bills have never accomplished.
Here’s our Week 4 Bills notebook.
The Bills won’t have a better look at the No. 1 seed than in 2025
Yes, you read that right. And yes, it’s very early — 14 games to go early. But the Bills could not have asked for a better way to begin the 2025 season, both in what’s already happened and in the short term of what’s to come. Based on what we’ve seen so far, barring a very significant injury to a certain franchise quarterback, it would be somewhat of a surprise if the Bills don’t come away with the top seed in the AFC.To put it bluntly, Allen and the Bills’ offense have been an 18-wheeler through the first three games, plowing through each opponent and scoring at least 30 points each week. They win in several different ways and have demonstrated their ability to do so under varying circumstances, even against a quality defense or two.
They’ve won with a heavy 11 personnel look in a frenzied come-from-behind victory in Week 1. They didn’t have to rely on Allen much in a run-heavy blowout win in Week 2 that likely would have yielded more than 30 points had the starters stayed in the game. Lastly, in Week 3, they won in the setting of a close game, always coming up with a key score to stay ahead throughout. It’s a mark of how good they are that, in a game in which they scored 31 points on the Miami Dolphins in Week 3, they still left a lot of meat on the bone in what could have been, another blowout.
Are the Bills flawed? They most certainly are. The defense still has a lot to clean up, and each time it seems like they figure something out from one game to the next, a new problem appears.
The first week, the middle of their defense gave no resistance at all. In Week 2, they had a great showing against the more one-dimensional offense that the New York Jets use. But then in Week 3, despite looking improved on first and second downs, the third-down defense repeatedly let the Bills down, allowing the Dolphins to stay close in the game. That defensive roller coaster ride was no surprise given all the youth the Bills are relying on, and the fact that they are waiting on some pieces to return from suspension and injury.
But this isn’t solely about where the Bills are great, and where they are not. It’s about the situation. And in that regard, the Bills have an extremely clear path to both homefield advantage and a first-round bye in the postseason.
Eight of their remaining 14 games are against the AFC East and NFC South, which are arguably the two worst divisions in the NFL this season. The other six contests consist of two AFC North teams — the Cleveland Browns and Cincinnati Bengals — who seem destined for a losing record in 2025, and the Houston Texans, who are already 0-3 with questions soon to mount about their quarterback and coach.
Buffalo is one of only three teams in the AFC to remain unbeaten through three games. But the biggest shock is that two of the heavy hitters across the AFC — Baltimore and Kansas City — are not among that trio. Instead, it’s the Los Angeles Chargers and Indianapolis Colts, who have had tremendous starts to begin the season, with each being unexpected in its own way.
Of the two, the Chargers certainly seem the less fluky, given that they’ve been knocking on the door with a great quarterback for years. They could be a challenger to the No. 1 seed, as they have the highly questionable AFC South on their schedule as well as games against the Commanders, Colts, Vikings, Steelers, Eagles, Chiefs and Broncos, too.
As for Baltimore and Kansas City, it’s been a hellacious beginning to the year.
The Ravens look legit and are extremely talented on both sides of the ball, but they are 1-2 to begin the season after losing to two Super Bowl contenders, the Bills and Detroit Lions. As schedules go, the Ravens don’t have as imposing a slate as some others, but they have a handful of challenging games remaining.
They have a Week 6 contest against the Rams, a Week 10 matchup against the well-coached Minnesota Vikings, a Week 16 premier matchup with the Green Bay Packers, along with a pair of always entertaining games against the Pittsburgh Steelers. There’s also another important game we’ll get to shortly. Even with some challenging opponents, much of the Ravens’ schedule seems winnable, which makes the Bills’ Week 1 win over Baltimore so important for tiebreaker purposes.
The Chiefs will always be the Chiefs, and as long as Patrick Mahomes is the quarterback, they have to be taken seriously to figure things out during the regular season. However, like the Ravens, they’re also 1-2 to begin the season — but they’re in a tougher division.
The Chiefs have the Chargers one more time, and the Denver Broncos twice, on top of games against the Lions, Commanders, Bills and Colts. And like the Ravens, there’s also one other game worth mentioning here shortly.
Based on their schedule and some of their struggles to begin the year, the Chiefs seem to have a less compelling case to challenge for the No. 1 seed than they have had in other seasons. However, it’s never wise to count out Kansas City from making a regular-season run, as we’ve seen year after year.
Now to that aforementioned matchup. It just so happens that the Ravens and Chiefs play one another this weekend. Unless that game reaches the statistical improbability of ending in a tie — one of those teams will be 1-3 — potentially three games behind the Bills after just four weeks. The last tied regular-season game was during the 2022 season, mind you.
Which team would be the more beneficial winner for the Bills’ No. 1 seed hopes? Buffalo already owns a tiebreaker against the Ravens and has yet to play the Chiefs this season, so a Ravens win would effectively give the Bills a 2 1/2 game lead over Baltimore and a three-game lead over the Chiefs.
That looks like the current path of least resistance, though if the Bills could guarantee a Week 9 win over the Chiefs, it would make a Chiefs win over the Ravens more beneficial, as the Chiefs have the more difficult schedule of the two. However, it’s best to never count on a victory over the Chiefs, even though they’ll have one fewer day of rest than the Bills going into this season’s matchup.
The Bengals are ahead of both teams at 2-1, but they will be without injured quarterback Joe Burrow until at least December. General NFL logic says that the Bengals would likely have to be in playoff contention to even think about Burrow returning to the lineup at some point late this season.
But their runout of upcoming games is on the hellacious side, all four of which are against playoff teams from last season in the Broncos, Lions, Packers and Steelers. Plus, they still have to play the Ravens twice and the Bills — all in a three-game stretch. Without Burrow, the Bengals aren’t a true contender for the No. 1 seed.
So as ideal starts to the season go, the Bills are having the best combination of skill and luck as they could have dreamed of in 2025. Given their upcoming matchups against the Saints, New England Patriots, Atlanta Falcons and Carolina Panthers — who have a combined three wins among them, there is a real chance Buffalo heads into its Week 9 matchup against Kansas City with a 7-0 record — the reverse of 2024 when it was the unbeaten Chiefs preparing for a matchup with the Bills. That’s not to say those next four games will be easy, but with all of them against younger quarterbacks, those are all ones the team should handle, depending on health.
The Bills were very open last season about their desire to secure the No. 1 seed in the AFC to claim both homefield advantage and a bye to begin the postseason, but ultimately were stopped short and had to play the AFC Championship Game in Kansas City. Odds are that they’ll be open about those goals again as the season gets into November and December.
In the final year at the old Highmark Stadium, with the new Highmark Stadium in view and hovering in the distance, the McDermott-led Bills have a very real possibility of playing in Orchard Park to achieve their nearly decade-long pursuit of making it back to the Super Bowl — and how poetic that would be.
Injury report: DT Ed Oliver (ankle), LB Matt Milano (pectoral) and RT Spencer Brown (calf) all did not practice on Wednesday or Thursday.
Projected Bills practice squad elevations: DT Jordan Phillips
Projected Bills inactives vs. Saints: WR Curtis Samuel, OT Spencer Brown, DE Landon Jackson, DT Ed Oliver, LB Matt Milano, CB Ja’Marcus Ingram
(**Subject to change following Friday’s practice)
Prediction: Bills 37, Saints 22
On film, the Saints play extremely hard and at a torrid offensive pace under new head coach Kellen Moore. The expectation is for the Saints to get plays off quickly, and boasting a very good top receiver in Chris Olave and a quarterback unafraid to sling it in Spencer Rattler, they’ll try to catch the Bills’ secondary napping.However, there is a pretty significant talent disparity from roster to roster, even with some of the Bills’ concerns on defense. The Saints lack a good pass rush, and without one, Allen and the rushing offense should find plenty of success en route to points. Ultimately, I think the Bills offense will continue its fast start to 2025 against an overmatched defense. Meanwhile, Buffalo’s defense will confuse Rattler with some pre-snap looks en route to negative plays, leading to a fair bit of garbage time, two-point conversion attempts, a weird scoreline and the Bills’ fourth straight win to start the season.
