A new mayor, a new stadium and nuclear power? 2026 brings change and questions
As the calendar turns, Buffalo News reporters look forward and make educated guesses about what awaits us in the new year.
As any gambler knows, it's impossible to predict the future.
But in Western New York in 2026, there are some bets worth making.
The Buffalo Bills will play in a new home stadium for the first time since 1973. The city of Buffalo will have a new elected mayor for the first time in decades. And the nation's eyes will turn to New York in November to see if the first woman elected governor can manage another first: the first woman elected governor to win re-election.
As the calendar turns, Buffalo News reporters look forward and make educated guesses about what else awaits us in the new year.
The Buffalo Bills will start their 2026-27 season in the new, $2.2 billion Highmark Stadium in Orchard Park, just across Abbott Road from the current facility.
Harry Scull Jr., Buffalo News
The new home of the Bills
The Buffalo Bills will make the final push this year to get their new stadium done.Construction crews are working day and night at the construction site to make sure it is ready for the 2026 season. The stadium is slated to be substantially completed by July.
About 1,500 workers are on the job, representing a plethora of trades. Just about every component of the stadium is being worked on − from the mechanical, electrical and plumbing work getting done to seats being installed, video screens and sound systems being tested to finishings, drywall and carpeting going in.
It’s necessary after an analysis of the stadium schedule from August showed certain areas behind schedule – enough to put the project behind by almost 12% − though officials now believe they are caught up and are confident the project will be done on time.
The stadium is closed in for the most part, unlike last winter, so interior work can get done throughout the colder months.
However, a mild winter would help the cause, like it did during the first year of construction in 2024. The harsh winter in 2025 was a factor in putting the project behind.
– Mike Petro
Buffalo Mayor-elect Sean Ryan, during a meeting with The Buffalo News' editorial board.
Derek Gee, Buffalo News
New faces in City Hall
As Sean Ryan takes his place in the Mayor’s Office at the beginning of the year, he has promised to bring sweeping change to the structure and culture of city government after nearly 20 years of former Mayor Byron Brown’s leadership.Some of the changes have already begun, with his shake-up of the structure of the Mayor’s Office, installing a four-deputy mayor system, creating new positions and eliminating others.
He has also brought in new people from outside city government for most major leadership positions, pledging to overhaul systems and a culture that he has described as dated and, at times, counterproductive.
Ryan has a host of challenges in front of him and a long list of promises to fulfill. Regardless of how successful at achieving those goals during the first year of his first term, many things will be very different going forward.
– Justin Sondel
Gov. Kathy Hochul announces a nuclear power cooperation agreement between New York State and Ontario at the Buffalo AKG Art Museum on Dec. 19.
Libby March, Buffalo News
State goes nuclear
The state's push to bolster its nuclear power capacity is expected to take a step forward this year.Gov. Kathy Hochul has called for the state to boost its nuclear generating capacity by at least 1 gigawatt, with a new facility in upstate New York.
The state has yet to determine where it will be built, or the company that will build it. But the New York Power Authority, tasked by Hochul with guiding the initiative, issued a request for information that generated responses from 32 developers and eight communities interested in the project.
The state is targeting starting construction by 2033. To advance the process, NYPA is aiming to issue a more-formal request for proposals by the middle of 2026.
– Matt Glynn
Going for two?
The biggest story in state government in 2026 will be the battle for governor – now a three-candidate race.Lt. Gov. Antonio Delgado is challenging Gov. Kathy Hochul in a Democratic primary. Nassau County Executive Bruce Blakeman, a Republican, plans to win Hochul’s job in November. And Hochul, a Buffalo-born Democrat in her first elected term, intends to vanquish them both, a potential outcome supported by recent polling. A Siena University poll of 801 registered voters released in mid-December had Hochul leading Blakeman 2-to-1 and topping Delgado more than 4-to-1.
It was a race that, for six weeks, included Rep. Elise Stefanik, a Republican from Saratoga County. The Siena poll showed Stefanik trailing Hochul by 19 points. And while Stefanik led Blakeman, who only recently announced his candidacy in early December, by 31 points, Stefanik dropped out of the race on Dec. 19.
Democratic voters outnumber active Republican voters by 3.2 million voters.
– Rob Gavin
End of diocese bankruptcy case?
The Buffalo Diocese, which has been in bankruptcy proceedings since 2020, seems poised finally to exit Chapter 11 as a smaller, less wealthy organization, but also one without child sex abuse lawsuits threatening to put it out of existence.The diocese has a deal to pay $150 million into a settlement for nearly 900 child sex abuse victims who filed claims in federal bankruptcy court. Those monies will be collected from diocese and parish savings and property sales and from the savings of entities such as Catholic Cemeteries and Catholic Charities.
In addition, diocese and parish insurers also have agreed to pay around $150 million into the settlement, a number that could grow yet if more insurers decide to settle.
The diocese is trying to cobble together what’s known as a “global settlement” that would allow all the entities that pay into the settlement fund to receive the benefit of a channeling injunction, which protects them from lawsuits alleging child sex abuse from years ago.
More hurdles are certainly possible, including continuing pushback from parishioners about parish funds going toward settlements, which is being examined at the Vatican, but enough progress has happened in the case to suggest that abuse victims will get a chance to vote on the diocese’s bankruptcy reorganization plan in 2026.
– Jay Tokasz
An aerial view of Niagara Square in downtown Buffalo. Derek Gee/Buffalo News
A reckoning for city finances
Coming off two years of significant tax increases, city property owners are unlikely to get a reprieve as incoming Mayor Sean Ryan works to bring revenues into balance with expenses.After many years of unbalanced budgets, Ryan has vowed to discontinue the practice of including inflated revenues and underestimated expenses in the city budget, as was common under former Mayor Byron Brown’s administration after the city’s control board returned to an advisory role in 2012. And he won’t have much of a choice, as Brown’s use of reserve funds and windfalls to plug the resulting end-of-year budget gaps has completely drained those accounts.
Ryan has said repeatedly that “everything is on the table” in his options for raising revenues, and that almost assuredly will include tax increases, borrowing and increased efforts to collect money owed to the city. His plan is to have the budget balanced and self-sustaining within three years. In April, when he presents his first budget, taxpayers will get a clearer look at how he plans to reach those goals.
– Justin Sondel
Health care questions
The effects of the federal One Big Beautiful Bill Act could become more pronounced throughout 2026.Without an extension of the Affordable Care Act enhanced premium tax credits, those who get their health insurance through the ACA Marketplace could see a huge surge in premium payments.
In addition, as we get closer to the Jan. 1, 2027, date by which states will need to implement work requirements for Medicaid beneficiaries, more health care entities could make proactive moves to trim services and costs.
Kaleida Health has been among the most aggressive so far in preparing for the reduction in Medicaid spending. But safety-net hospitals, such as Erie County Medical Center, and rural hospitals also could be among the most affected and may need to take steps to lessen the impact.
– Jon Harris
BPS seeks calm amid tumult
The first several months of 2025 for Buffalo Public Schools were dominated by dramatic, somewhat unexpected events.The superintendent surprisingly announced her retirement. A Buffalo police detective alleged cover-ups by the district. The school board narrowly passed a $1.1 billion budget.
The start of 2026 appears somewhat more predictable, but with the same degree of drama. The district must evaluate its process for closing two of its 60 schools in a larger right-sizing effort, which will also play a role in a contentious budget cycle.
There's reason for nerves and excitement, too.
Superintendent Pascal Mubenga will at some point this winter unveil his first Strategic Plan for Buffalo Schools after roughly 100 days of listening. He's shed some of the pomp and circumstance that characterized building visits by previous superintendents, instead preferring to fly under the radar as he grasps how the district functions.
The district will seat four new board members in the first week of January, a seismic leadership change in which newcomers will face tough decisions from the jump – such as electing a president and two vice presidents.
Also looming is law firm Rupp Pfalzgraf LLC's report of the results of the independent investigation into Detective Richard Hy's allegations that Buffalo Schools took steps to cover up or obstruct investigations into incidents of sexual assault and abduction.
– Ben Tsujimoto
Independent Health's future
Independent Health's planned affiliation with Schenectady-based MVP Health Care could be complete by late spring 2026 if the regulatory approvals process goes smoothly.Things should become clearer from there. For instance, we know Amherst-based Independent Health will exist as an affiliated company underneath the umbrella of a yet-to-be-defined parent organization, but we don't yet know the organization's name or who will lead it.
Once affiliated, the nonprofit health plans no doubt will look for cost savings by combining some resources. That means job cuts are possible, raising the anxiety for MVP's 1,700 employees and Independent Health's 1,200 employees.
And of course, the 1 million total members of MVP and Independent Health are eager to see what changes the affiliation brings.
– Jon Harris
Demolition could begin in the spring on the Boulevard Mall in Amherst, the fading shopping center
that is set to give way to a mixed-use revival led by Benderson Development Co. and others. Joshua Bessex, News file photo
Changes come to Amherst
The new year will see major movement on some long-awaited projects in Amherst.Demolition could begin in the spring on the Boulevard Mall, the fading shopping center that is set to give way to a mixed-use revival led by Benderson Development Co. and other developers.
The Costco Wholesale and Dick's House of Sport under construction near Benderson's The Boulevard retail center are expected to open sometime this spring.
The first stores at the main Station 12 property, at the site of the former Northtown Plaza in Eggertsville, will open later in 2026, owner WS Development said.
And Erie County is ready to begin work this spring on its plan to transform the former Westwood Country Club into a county park and nine-hole golf course. The renamed Willowdale Park likely won't open until 2027, however.
− Stephen T. Watson
A fresh start(up) in Buffalo
43North will welcome its 11th cohort of winning startups to Buffalo the week of Jan. 5.And this year's class of 43North winners has a distinctively out-of-town makeup, including one winning startup coming to Western New York all the way from London, U.K.
Coming to Buffalo will be Cellsense of New York City, Floe of New Haven, Conn., RadEmploy of New York City and Tukki.ai of Miami, as well as Cosi Care of London. None of this year’s winners are from Buffalo.
Each of the five startups that earned $1 million prizes during the 43North finals in October are expected to inject new ideas into the region's entrepreneurial ecosystem.
All five of this year's winners earned a $1 million prize and will move to Buffalo for at least a year as part of the 43North accelerator program, which provides mentorship, support and connections to the Western New York startup ecosystem. In exchange, 43North gets a 5% ownership stake in each winner.
Over the past decade, 43North has invested in 74 companies, created more than 3,000 jobs globally and raised over $1 billion in capital.
– Mike Petro
A death penalty case
Payton Gendron, already sentenced in state court to life in prison, is scheduled to be in federal court in 2026 when prosecutors will argue he should get the death penalty for his racist attack that killed 10 people at a Tops supermarket in May 2022.Prospective jurors will come to the U.S. Courthouse in Buffalo between June 15 and 26 to fill out questionnaires, giving lawyers seven weeks to review them before the in-person juror questioning starts on Aug. 17.
Before then, U.S. District Judge Vilardo has set aside six days in February for a hearing to consider defense arguments that Gendron should be exempted from the death penalty because he was just 18 years old at the time of his attack.
– Patrick Lakamp
Joseph Bongiovanni and his wife, Lindsay, walk out of the Robert H. Jackson Courthouse after he was found guilty on seven charges in October 2024.
Joed Viera, News file photo
Former fed learns his fate
After several years of pretrial hearings and then high-profile trials, Joseph Bongiovanni and Peter Gerace Jr. are scheduled to learn their legal fate in 2026 at their federal court sentencings.A presentence report suggests eight to 10 years in prison for Bongiovanni, 61, the first Drug Enforcement Administration agent in Western New York convicted of protecting drug traffickers.
Bongiovanni is scheduled to be sentenced Jan. 21.
U.S. District Judge Lawrence Vilardo is free to impose more or less prison time than what the report recommended.
Gerace, owner of the now-closed Pharaoh’s Gentlemen’s Club, is scheduled to be sentenced Feb. 12 for his convictions of bribery, conspiracy to distribute drugs, conspiracy to commit sex trafficking and witness tampering among other convictions that could send him to prison for life.
– Patrick Lakamp
Developing uncertainty
Real estate development activity has been sluggish because of the high interest rates, high construction costs and difficulty in obtaining financing from lenders. As a result, many previously announced projects are still on hold, and the pipeline of new ventures is light – as evidenced from the agendas for local planning boards and economic development agencies. But rates are starting to come down, costs are stabilizing and banks are loosening up. And demand for more housing in particular is still high.If you've been out looking for a house, you know the local housing market is still tight as a drum, and it can take months and a lot of disappointment before you win the day. The available supply of homes for sale is starting to pick up, but the severe mismatch between supply and demand continues to frustrate homebuyers, as existing homeowners have more incentive to stay in their homes and remodel rather than put them up for sale. Meanwhile, the lack of available land, the difficulty getting that land permitted and the high costs of construction have combined to constrain the supply of new-build homes to relieve the pressure. What will the new year bring?
– Jonathan D. Epstein
A sluggish local economy
The big question overhanging the Buffalo Niagara economy in 2026 is when local companies will start hiring again.Job growth across the region stagnated for most of 2025 – at least into September, which is as far as the jobs data goes because of the federal government shutdown.
But the most recent data was especially worrisome because it showed that the region had lost 500 jobs during August and September, which is a sign that hiring had virtually ground to a halt.
Across the country, economists say the nation has settled into a "no-hire, no-fire" phase, but with a stagnant population and an aging workforce, that type of approach would be painful for the Buffalo Niagara region simply because we have more workers leaving the labor force than entering it.
– David Robinson
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