AFC East preview: Can anyone challenge the Bills?
Plus, new head coaches for the Patriots and Jets, and the Dolphins search for a way to break through.
www.nytimes.com
The Bills look to be in full control of the division once again. The only question lingering in Western New York is whether this Buffalo team is the one to finally push past the Kansas City Chiefs and into the Super Bowl. As for the rest of the division, Mike Vrabel and Aaron Glenn are homecoming heroes looking to turn things around in New England and New York, respectively, while Mike McDaniel’s Dolphins are looking at something of a season on the brink.
Based on the average of predicted win totals submitted by each of The Athletic’s beat writers for every team in the division, here’s how the AFC East stacks up for 2025:
1. Buffalo Bills
Projected record: 12-5Who’s new: WR Joshua Palmer, DE Michael Hoecht, DE Joey Bosa, CB Tre’Davious White, CB Max Hairston, DT Larry Ogunjobi, DT T.J. Sanders, DE Landon Jackson, WR Elijah Moore, P Brad Robbins
Who’s gone: WR Amari Cooper, WR Mack Hollins, CB Rasul Douglas, DE Von Miller, TE Quintin Morris, LB Baylon Spector, CB Kaiir Elam, P Sam Martin
Season preview
The Bills feature the reigning MVP, have won five straight AFC East titles and are the betting favorites in every game on their schedule. Then why is it so difficult to imagine them hoisting the Lombardi Trophy instead of the Chiefs or the Eagles? Buffalo is an organization that’s always on the wrong side of the hump.With the rest of the division in transition or in turmoil, the Bills should plow through those division rivals again, but AFC East dominance hasn’t meant much to them in January because they don’t collect enough victories over their other 11 games to secure the No. 1 seed. The Chiefs, Ravens and even the Titans have managed to do so, but Sean McDermott and Josh Allen never have enjoyed having that precious postseason bye. The Bills have a beneficial schedule. They play one game outside the Eastern time zone and their toughest opponents must come to Orchard Park: Ravens in Week 1, Chiefs in Week 9, Bengals in Week 14 and Eagles in Week 17.
Their chances to lock down the No. 1 seed rest on the defense. Allen last year piloted a prolific offense that finished second in scoring and sixth in yards per play, and almost everybody is back, including his entire offensive line. Buffalo also posted a gaudy 32-8 takeaway ratio, though that number likely will regress toward the middle at least a little bit.
The Bills’ defense, despite their larceny, allowed a cushy 5.6 yards per play and were fourth-worst on third down. The front has been improved with free agents Joey Bosa, Michael Hoecht and Larry Ogunjobi, but Bosa has a long injury history, and the other two are suspended the first six weeks. Linebackers Terrel Bernard and Matt Milano play bigger than their size, but that style has led to injuries. Their secondary, a perceived strength, has been riddled by summer injuries and lackluster preseason performances. — Joe Buscaglia
From “The Athletic Football Show” podcast: What are you excited about?
It’s gotta be the offense. And it’s not just that Josh Allen is an MVP-caliber quarterback. There’s a chance that on any given Sunday, he is truly the best quarterback out there. But it’s not just him.They have, I don’t know, the third-best offensive line in the league. They have a unique left tackle. They have an interior that has played very well. Spencer Brown on the right side has been really good for them. We spent three years talking about: The Bills need to figure out how to learn how to run the ball, and then they finally did last year and what we got was a Josh Allen MVP season where he doesn’t even need a star receiver and he can go out and do all this stuff. So to see what Josh Allen has become pre-snap, to see what he’s become as a decision-maker, still being one of the nastiest runners in the NFL on top of that stuff, this offense is a fire-breathing dragon and they’re probably going to be that again. — Derrik Klassen, “The Athletic Football Show”
2. New England Patriots
Projected record: 8-9Who’s new: HC Mike Vrabel, OC Josh McDaniels, DC Terrell Williams, WR Stefon Diggs, DT Milton Williams, CB Carlton Davis, LT Will Campbell, RB TreVeyon Henderson, LB Robert Spillane, OLB Harold Landry, WR Mack Hollins, RT Morgan Moses, C Garrett Bradbury
Who’s gone: HC Jerod Mayo, OC Alex Van Pelt, DC DeMarcus Covington, C David Andrews, CB Jonathan Jones, LB Ja’Whaun Bentley, DL Deatrich Wise, DT Davon Godchaux
Season preview
After back-to-back four-win seasons, the Patriots have jolted their rebuild with the hiring of Mike Vrabel. He pairs with second-year quarterback Drake Maye to give the Patriots promising potential. Vrabel, a franchise Hall of Famer, returns to add discipline and improve the culture for a team that’s been stuck in the mud for the last few years. He inherited one of the worst rosters in the NFL, but quickly remade it in one offseason, adding Stefon Diggs, Milton Williams, Carlton Davis and Robert Spillane in free agency.Still, so much of the Patriots’ hopes for this season and beyond hinge on Maye. He had promising moments last season as a rookie, despite his terrible supporting cast. Maye’s training camp hasn’t been without some gaffes, but optimism is high. That said, the Patriots will have to lean on their defense to win games this season. The offense will likely have its ups and downs, but the additions of Williams, Davis and Spillane headline a defensive overhaul that should make that side of the ball pretty good. — Chad Graff
AFC East fantasy breakout player: Drake Maye
Rushing upside. Maye won’t run for 1,000 yards, but he can sit in the 700-800 range with a handful of touchdowns. Weeks 6 through 16 of Maye’s rookie season — excluding Week 8, when he was concussed — he averaged 16.6 fantasy points per game, which would have been QB13, ahead of Justin Herbert and Tua Tagovailoa … with one of the league’s worst receiving corps. The Patriots added wide receivers Stefon Diggs and Kyle Williams, running back TreVeyon Henderson and help along the offensive line in the offseason. — Jake CielyFrom “The Athletic Football Show” podcast: What are you watching the first month of the season?
What is a Josh McDaniels offense in 2025? Is the gap year that he spent kind of figuring out what the next version of this would be with him as an offensive coordinator? What is the final expression of that? I don’t know the answer. Like, are we going to see a little bit of evolution? Are we going to see a little bit more flexibility? What are the ideas that Josh McDaniels is trying to channel in his next go-round as an offensive coordinator? I’m very excited to see what that might mean. — Robert Mays, “The Athletic Football Show”Mock predicts divisional strength for Buffalo
Austin Mock’s 2025 AFC East model projections3. Miami Dolphins
Projected record: 7-10Who’s new: S Minkah Fitzpatrick, DL Kenneth Grant, OG Jonah Savaiinaea, OG James Daniels, TE Darren Waller, OLB Matthew Judon, CB Kendall Sheffield, S Ifeatu Melifonwu, CB Jack Jones, QB Zach Wilson, WR Nick Westbrook-Ikhine
Who’s gone: OT Terron Armstead, CB Jalen Ramsey, S Jevon Holland, DE Calais Campbell, TE Jonnu Smith, RB Raheem Mostert, TE Durham Smythe, OG Robert Jones
Season preview
It feels like we’re entering a make-or-break season for this iteration of the Dolphins. Coach Mike McDaniel has a 28-23 record in three years, but the Dolphins still haven’t won a playoff game since 1999, or an AFC East title since 2008. Those painful droughts are far bigger indictments of GM Chris Grier than of McDaniel, since Grier arrived in Miami in 2016. But their fates could be tied together if ownership wants to hit the reset button. To keep this regime in place, the Dolphins must prove they’re heading back in the right direction after a disappointing 2024 campaign (8-9).As always, whether they can do that depends largely on the health of QB Tua Tagovailoa, whose future in Miami could also be in jeopardy if things go awry this year. When Tagovailoa is healthy and at his best, this offense can still be dangerous. Probably. Miami’s remade offensive line is a major question mark – can it sufficiently protect Tagovailoa, and help restore Miami’s once-potent rushing attack? And then there's the question marks on defense, including a completely overhauled secondary. If Tagovailoa stays healthy and those units can be, at least, average, Miami can contend for a playoff spot. If not, the Dolphins could look a whole lot different in 2026. — Jim Ayello
From "The Athletic Football Show" podcast: What’s keeping you up at night?
When we thought that they were a contending team, when they were a playoff team, they were already a stars-and-scrubs roster. That's how this thing was built. They leverage themselves for these guys. They traded a lot for Tyreek Hill. They traded a first-round pick for Bradley Chubb. They paid Terron Armstead in free agency. This was already a fragile build and a needle that they were trying to thread.Well, they're still a stars-and-scrubs roster, but some of the stars are gone. Jalen Ramsey is not here anymore. Terron Armstead is not here anymore. And so I just don't know what this is all supposed to be and how it's all supposed to fit together. This team is $27 million over the 2026 cap right now. And there are certain things that they'll do to handle that, right? Tyreek Hill is like a $50 million cap hit next year. He'll either be extended or he will be released. But that brings me to my big question here: Who are the building blocks on this team? Who are the guys that you think you're going to be able to move forward with in '26 and '27 and feel good about? Who are the good established rookie contract players on the Dolphins? — Robert Mays, "The Athletic Football Show"
4. New York Jets
Projected record: 6-11Who’s new: HC Aaron Glenn, OC Tanner Engstrand, DC Steve Wilks, STC Chris Banjo, QB Justin Fields, OT Armand Membou, TE Mason Taylor, DT Harrison Phillips, K Nick Folk, S Andre Cisco, CB Brandon Stephens, WR Josh Reynolds, WR Tyler Johnson, WR Arian Smith, C Josh Myers, DT Byron Cowart, CB Azareye’h Thomas, P Austin McNamara
Who’s gone: QB Aaron Rodgers, HC Robert Saleh, GM Joe Douglas, Interim HC Jeff Ulbrich, OC Nathaniel Hackett, WR Davante Adams, LB CJ Mosley, CB DJ Reed, OT Tyron Smith, DE Haason Reddick, OT Morgan Moses, TE Tyler Conklin, DT Javon Kinlaw, S Chuck Clark, K Greg Zuerlein, P Thomas Morstead
Season preview
The Jets of the last two years went into the season with significant expectations, most of them spurred on by the presence of Aaron Rodgers and the hype machine that came with him — not to mention, then-head coach Robert Saleh’s propensity for proclaiming his team a Super Bowl contender. The marriage between Rodgers and the Jets failed miserably, and so owner Woody Johnson turned things over completely this offseason.Saleh was fired early last season, general manager Joe Douglas a few weeks later. In the offseason Rodgers, in a way, was fired too, by new coach Aaron Glenn, a longtime Jets cornerback who has already started to put a stamp on the organization that drafted him in 1994.
Glenn and new general manager Darren Mougey went with a youth movement — there are only four players 30 or older on the roster, one is a long snapper, one is a kicker and one is the backup quarterback. This new regime is banking on Justin Fields, a former first-round pick, finding new success in a different environment, and the Jets are building around a young core led by three players who garnered significant contract extensions in the offseason: wide receiver Garrett Wilson, cornerback Sauce Gardner and linebacker Jamien Sherwood.
Glenn’s mantra this offseason was to “move in silence” — much needed after a couple of years of too much noise. The result of all these changes, in personnel and philosophy, has the Jets flying under the radar. Historically, this is an organization that performs better when there is less pressure to be felt. Let’s see if that happens in 2025. — Zack Rosenblatt
https://www.nytimes.com/athletic/61...nn-former-teammates-new-york-jets-head-coach/
From "The Athletic Football Show" podcast: What are the swing points?
It's really exciting when you spend this type of draft capital on offensive tackles in back-to-back years. You draft Olu Fashanu 11th one year, you draft Armand Membou seventh the next year. The expectations are so fun, and so I think the swing point is just: How good are those guys? How quickly do they jell into a formidable tackle duo? And if it's quickly, that's so cool. Obviously it helps in the run game. It would help a quarterback like Justin Fields, who is going to hold onto the ball, who's probably going to try to make plays after the 3 1⁄2-second clock goes off. And when you've got guys like that it can open things up for you. So I'm not trying to sell anybody on the Jets as an elite offense this year, but if those guys are really good, it could have really big ramifications on all aspects of the offense. — Dave Helman, "The Athletic Football Show"
Editor’s note: Projected records are based on individual predictions of the four beat writers in each division, independent of the projected records in the other seven division previews. Therefore, totaling the projected records found in all eight division previews will not necessarily balance out evenly.
