All 22: Jim Kubiak: Josh Allen still trying to do more than he should, and Bills had poor game plan vs. Texans

Jim Kubiak: Josh Allen still trying to do more than he should, and Bills had poor game plan vs. Texans

When you take a quarterback who's trying to do too much and implement a game plan that doesn’t protect him, then add a ferocious pass rush, you get this ugly result.

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Jim Kubiak is in his eighth season of analyzing the play of Buffalo Bills quarterbacks for The Buffalo News. Kubiak is the all-time leading passer at Navy, has played in the NFL, NFL Europe and the Arena Football League and has been a coach and executive in the AFL. He spent eight years as the radio analyst for the University at Buffalo and runs the Western New York Quarterback Academy to help develop the next generation of quarterbacks. He is the former head coach at Hilbert.

Quarterbacks are evaluated each quarter using a “Doing Your Job” grading system for every play that takes into account the quarterback’s responsibilities and outcome. The accountability system rewards a quarterback with a plus for a play in which he does what he is supposed to do, a minus for not doing what he is supposed to do. A quarterback can earn a plus-plus for an extraordinary play and a minus-minus for a play that hurts the team.
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Josh Allen completed 24 of 34 attempts and threw two interceptions in the Buffalo Bills' crushing 23-19 loss to the Houston Texans on Thursday. The Bills had a minus-3 turnover differential in this loss, but their problems go deeper than one game: They have nine giveaways and four takeaways in the last three weeks.


Bills quarterback Josh Allen makes a call at the line of scrimmage during the third quarter against the Texans on Thursday, Nov. 20, 2025, at NRG Stadium in Houston.
Joshua Bessex, Buffalo News

Last season, the Bills protected the football well with a plus-24 turnover differential. They had six interceptions, two lost fumbles and 32 takeaways. Compare that to this season: The Bills have a minus-2 turnover differential.

Teams that win the turnover differential in a game win 75%-85% of the time in the NFL. This is statistically measurable and significant. The fact remains that quarterbacks and offenses who protect the ball give themselves the best chance for success.

It is difficult for any team to win games with this many turnovers, no matter who is playing quarterback. And for all of the hopes the Bills had of winning the AFC East, much less a Super Bowl, the postgame response from coach Sean McDermott at the end of this self-inflicted loss was: “We battle, we move forward.”

In this loss, the Bills’ offense struggled with a poor game plan that did not account for the Texans' great pass rush. The Bills were also put on notice that they are not as physical up front as they may have thought.

Yes, the Texans’ defense was physically stout, but their scheme was basic. They limited Allen’s big plays and never allowed him to roll to his right. Not only did Allen get sacked eight times for 70 yards in this game, the Bills’ offensive line didn’t have the juice to hold up in protection. (Allen was hit 12 times in all.)

Some of the sacks were created by Allen holding the ball too long, trying to make heroic plays instead of throwing the ball away, and that's a recipe for disaster.
When you take a quarterback who's trying to do too much and implement a game plan that doesn’t protect him, then add a ferocious pass rush, you get this ugly result.

The Texans’ backup quarterback, Davis Mills, is nowhere near the level of player that Allen is, but he guided his team to an important victory with two touchdown passes and zero interceptions. Allen had more yards and made more plays, but he also made some critical mistakes with two interceptions and his crushing sacks. The Bills needed a game plan that focused on quick reads, more tight-end-chipping protections and routes that were not always so vertical. Deep routes take time – a commodity that Allen did not have.

FIRST QUARTER​

Play selection: 16 plays (eight passes, eight runs)
Allen: 6 for 8 passing, 49 yards; two carries for 5 yards.
Performance grade: 93%
Score: Bills, 6-3.

The Bills jumped out into an early lead following a three-and-out by the defense. The quick punt by the Texans originally had the Bills starting on the 37-yard line, but thanks to a holding penalty on Jordan Hancock, the Bills started their drive from their own 19.

The Bills’ offense put together a 10-play touchdown drive with balance and control. James Cook ripped off a 45-yard touchdown run, but this drive was a struggle. It included a dropped pass by Dawson Knox on a scramble and a third-and-10 play that gained 9 yards.

McDermott went for a fourth-and-1 from the Bills’ own 28-yard line.

Following the dangerous fourth-and-1 conversion, the offense gained 2 yards on two consecutive plays before this important third-and-8.

Third-and-8: Bills get an early conversion vs. Texans​

This designed screen resulted in what looked like a hot-throw versus a five-man Texans pressure. They blitzed Kamari Lassiter off the edge, who was unblocked and allowed to pursue because Allen was throwing it immediately. This was a good call in this situation with the four rushers to Allen’s right. Hot throws are immediate and into the blitz. They attack the voided area created by the blitzing player. Although this was a screen, it might as well have been a hot throw as it took advantage of the aggressiveness.

This play resulted in a 13-yard gain and prevented a punt. Three plays later, Cook, on third-and-short, picked through a hole and took it the distance for the Bills’ touchdown. On this play, the Bills’ offense was in "22" personnel (two running backs, two tight ends, one receiver). The Texans were prepared for a possible quarterback sneak and had three defenders covering both of the Buffalo guards and center Connor McGovern. This was a “bear” front, and the Bills used this to their advantage with Cook’s off-tackle weakside running play. This put the Bills into an early lead 6-0 as Matt Prater missed the extra point.

On their next series, the Bills received the kickoff and returned it to the 22-yard line, but another holding penalty on the return backed the drive-start to the 12-yard line.

The Bills executed a 6-yard run with Cook, and then on second-and-4, Knox missed a block on a tunnel screen to Allen's left.

Khalil Shakir had no chance on this play because Knox left the cornerback, Lassiter, unblocked. This resulted in a loss of 2 yards on the play.
Then, on third-and-6, Allen was sacked after trying to make a bigger play than getting the first down.

Josh Allen nailed on third-and-6 going for more vs. Texans​

This hit was entirely on Allen.

The Texans rushed four and clearly forced him to step up in the pocket to his left. They made sure he could not roll to the right side of the field. As Allen stepped up, the middle of the field was wide open. He could have taken advantage and run for the first down or completed the ball in the middle of the field to Joshua Palmer.

Instead of taking either of those options, Allen pulled up and tried to reset his feet to throw downfield to Elijah Moore who was breaking into an open area. Will Anderson Jr. hustled from Allen’s outside rush position all the way around everyone, including right tackle Spencer Brown, and nailed Allen from behind.

From an offensive perspective, it is important to know your opponent. This Texans’ defense ranks first in the NFL for a reason. They have a great pass rush, they are athletic and they pursue with abandon. A quarterback has to account for and offset that with quick, decisive countermoves.

Allen here lacked a sense of urgency and respect for the Texans’ defense. If he would have just scrambled for the first down instead of trying to do so much more, the Bills would have continued the drive. This has become a recurring issue for Allen this season as he seems to be less willing to do what is required, in favor of doing more.

To put it another way, he is doing Josh Allen things at times when heroics aren’t necessary. The result was not a sack as Allen was hit going forward for 2 yards.
The Texans punted the ball back after a three-and-out. Allen and the Bills’ offense took over again with 1:38 still to go in the first quarter and a chance to increase their lead. Following two Cook runs and a completion, the quarter ended.

The Bills’ offense struggled in the quarter because of sound defense, poor field position because of two special-teams penalties and failed execution. Allen completed 6 of 8 passes for 49 yards and rushed twice for 5 yards, but those stats do not adequately reflect how the Bills had difficulty operating against the Texans’ defense. Some of it was Houston's high-caliber pursuit and some of it was a case of players not doing their jobs well enough.

SECOND QUARTER​

Play selection: 11 plays (seven passes, four runs)
Allen: 5 for 7 passing, 39 yards, 0 TDs, 1 INT, one sack; one carry for minus-1 yard.
Performance grade: 80%
Score: Texans, 20-16.
Following a nifty 15-yard run by Cook, the offense had a first-and-10 on the Texans’ 45-yard line.

Josh Allen makes the wrong decision on an RPO vs. Texans​

Here, Brady called this RPO (run-pass option) on first-and-10. The run was for Cook with a pass option to Elijah Moore. This was as easy a read as Allen could have had. There were four Texans to the screen side with only two blockers. It is unclear why Allen didn’t hand off the ball as the four Texans to the bubble side outnumbered the Bills’ blockers – the exact situation to hand the ball off.

Ultimately this wasn’t great defense by the Texans; it was a poor decision by Allen, who did not follow his read or his defensive-player-count rules for the play. This resulted in a 3-yard loss as Shakir was engulfed with no chance to make a play.

This loss on the play had Allen, Brady and the Bills’ offense chasing this mistake. This one negative play resulted in the Bills having to go for it on fourth-and-2.

Fourth-and-2: Josh Allen makes a great throw vs. Texans​

This was a daring play-call by Brady on fourth-and-2, particularly with the pass rush. Watch how Danielle Hunter (No. 55) used his inside arm to lift Dion Dawkins off the ground and into Allen as he threw the football.

Brady successfully attacked the combo-matching coverage of the Texans between linebacker EJ Speed and the down safety, Jaylen Reed. As Knox came inside and Johnson went outside, the defenders exchanged players. This allowed Allen to spot Johnson on his wheel route immediately as Reed had not anticipated Johnson going vertical. This was a great throw from Allen to keep the drive alive.

McDermott chose to go for this rather than try a 55-yard field-goal attempt, which was an interesting decision. Perhaps he felt that being more aggressive was more important than a long field-goal attempt.

On the next play, Tim Settle split a double-team by Brown and right guard O’Cyrus Torrence to tackle Johnson in the backfield for a 2-yard loss. This was poor execution from the line, and had they sustained this block, Johnson would have had a positive play.

There was nothing fancy about this play. Settle split the blockers and tackled Johnson in the backfield for a 2-yard loss. Again, not necessarily great defense by the Texans as much as it was poor execution by the Bills.

Next, on second-and-12, Brady called a double-move stutter-go with Palmer. Allen wanted to throw to Palmer, but he had to wait to see if the cornerback bit on double-move. By that time, Allen was not able to process the seam or the flat, or the back side, which was open. Take a look.

Second-and-12: Josh Allen takes a sack while looking for Joshua Palmer vs. Texans​

Here, Allen had four open and viable targets – but because Brady had a stutter-go in the call, Allen tried to wait to get the throw over the top to Palmer. Meanwhile, Allen missed Moore on the seam for a touchdown and missed Knox in the flat, who was open. If he had looked back, he had Gabe Davis and then Cook on an angle route.

The fact that Allen tried to throw the stutter-go tells us Allen wasn’t thinking about a completion here. He had locked on to Palmer and was trying to manipulate the defender. This again was poor decision-making on Allen’s part. He should have thrown to Moore on time for the touchdown, or at the least taken the completion in the flat to Knox.

Instead, after waiting too long, he panicked and swirled around in the pocket with nowhere to go. This sack cost the Bills another 10 yards. On two consecutive plays, the Bills lost 12 yards to failed execution.

Another question to ask here was, why not more of Cook?

Prater kicked a 44-yard field goal to boost the Bills into a 9-3 lead.

The Texans answered with a 13-play touchdown drive that cut the Bills' lead to two points, 9-7.

Buffalo took control of the ball on their own 25-yard line following the kickoff. Allen and the offense had 3:47 remaining in the first half and were to get the football to start the third quarter. The one thing they absolutely couldn’t do was turn the ball over on this drive.

That was exactly what happened with this Allen interception on the very first play.

Josh Allen throws his interception vs. Texans​

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Here, Brady used Davis (No. 13) to chip the powerful defensive end, Hunter, to help Dawkins. Then Davis released wide open. Allen play-action-faked and had Cook open in the flat as well. The Texans played a simple Cover 3 zone, three deep and four under, giving Allen two easy completions on first down.

Allen tried to make more and attempted to thread the needle to Moore on a curl route. Texans linebacker Azeez Al-Shaair was under the curl and close enough to react, deflecting the football up into the air for an interception.

Allen’s job in this situation was to move the team down the field to score points. His job was to protect the ball and to be efficient against this great defense. On this play, he did not follow the script and it cost the Bills dearly. There was simply no excuse for a quarterback to force this pass into coverage. The interception by Dare Ogunbowale was returned for a touchdown but called back for an illegal block.

The Bills’ defense held the Texans to a field goal, giving them a 13-9 lead.

On the ensuing kickoff, Bills returner Ray Davis scored with an electrifying 97-yard touchdown return to thrust the Bills back into the lead before halftime, 16-13.

But with 1:35 remaining, the Texans drove 75 yards on six plays for a touchdown before the break. This took the wind out of the sails of the Bills as they were again behind 20-16.

This first half was wrought with mistakes, poor execution and a lack of discipline from the Bills' offense. On four possessions (minus the kneeldown before halftime), the Bills ran 27 plays to the Texans' 36. The Texans passed for more yards, 122-77, while both teams were about equal rushing, 79-77.

 

[HipKat]

THIRD QUARTER​

Play selection: 12 plays (four passes, five runs)
Allen: 3 for 4 passing, 44 yards, 0 TDs, 0 INTs, three sacks; one carry for 2 yards
Performance grade: 75%
Score: Texans, 23-16

The third quarter was abysmal for the Bills’ offense, who had three possessions, as they punted, punted, and fumbled the ball away. In total, the Bills ran just twelve plays, and among those plays, three were sacks and one was a turnover.
On the first drive, the Allen and the Bills were faced with third-and-6.

Third-and-6: Josh Allen takes an 18-yard sack vs. Texans​

Here, against this great defensive pass rush, Brady called three deep passing patterns.

With all of the pass-protection struggles in this game, it was surprising that Brady tempted Allen with three long-developing, vertical-style routes. Brady did, as we see here, have an immediate escort set up for Johnson, but Allen was again looking for a deep shot.

Allen was harassed and forced left, at which point he should have thrown the football away. Instead, he tried to reverse field against this high-octane pursuing opponent and was sacked for a 18-yard loss.

Allen and Brady need to get onto the same page.

Three long-developing vertical routes was not a good pairing with a quick escort, because Allen needed time to read the deep options. Once he decided not to throw it, the escort window of opportunity had passed. This call, along with Allen’s intention to go deep, caused this costly sack.

The Bills punted and the defense held. The Texans punted back.

Then, on a third-and-6, the Texans decimated the Bills’ offensive front on a four-man rush stunt.

Josh Allen takes another sack vs. Texans ... he needed to throw it quickly​

Allen and the Bills had a three-and-out on this series that ended with another sack, this one a 5-yard loss.

McGovern was clobbered with a head-to-head collision on this stunt and went immediately to the ground. He never saw it coming. Brown fell wide as his man spun inside. Allen had people rolling at his feet and tried to dance out of trouble to his left but was wrangled in before he could get free.

Allen had Shakir to his right immediately under Davis’ release. Had Allen delivered it, this pass would have been complete. The moment he hesitated and waited for Davis to get off the jam for a fade route, he had very little chance because of the ferocious pass rush.

The Bills punted again.

The Texans returned the favor and punted back to the Bills, again without a score change.

The Bills had another opportunity to take the lead back with 5:47 remaining in the third quarter, but on the third play of this series, Shakir made a catch for a first down on third-and-3 and then was stripped by Ogunbowale from his safety position. The ball was recovered by Reed on the Buffalo 22-yard line.

This was a critical play that handed the Texans sure points on a very short field.

The Texans were only able to get three points off the turnover. (Again, credit the Bills' defense.)

First-and-10: Josh Allen takes another sack vs. Texans​

Here, on first-and-10 to begin the Bills next drive, the Texans proved they had Brady’s number. They anticipated a play-action pass with a maximum seven-man protection. Brady slid the line to Allen’s left and had Jackson Hawes and Reggie Gilliam peel back to Allen’s right, but the Texans delayed a blitz with Henry To’oTo’o, who sacked Allen.

Again, the deep "in" cut and the go route took time to develop down the field. This required time Allen did not have against these Texans. This play-call by Brady was anticipated and thwarted.

This third quarter was a tough one for Allen and the offensive linemen, who were struggling to protect.

FOURTH QUARTER​

Play selection: 27 plays (16 passes, seven runs)
Allen: 11 for 16 passing, 133 yards, 1 INT, four sacks; one carry for 14 yards
Performance grade: 92%
Score: Texans, 23-19

Allen made a great scramble to keep this drive alive, but it came to a stop on a fourth-and-1 call in which the play came in late.

This was one of the worst calls in the game for Brady, and it came at a very critical moment.

The fourth-and-1 from the 22-yard line was a block-down and kick-out with Gilliam for Cook. On this play, Torrence, the right guard, missed his block on defensive tackle Sheldon Rankins. Rankins had Cook in the backfield. There was other outstanding penetration as the Texans decimated the Bills’ right side.

The other peculiar part of this call was the use of a play style like this instead of an immediate and forceful forward-motion play. The ferocious pursuit up the field annihilated any chance for Cook to get out of the backfield. An aggressive and immediate impact style of play like a dive, or an isolation block with Reggie Gilliam leading for Cook, would have had more downhill, physical value in this circumstance.

The Bills could have had a field goal in this situation, too, and that would have cut the Texans' lead to four, 23-19, but McDermott elected to go for it. This turnover on downs was significant in the psyche of this Bills’ team. The Texans destroyed the Bills on the line of scrimmage on this the biggest play of the game.

The Texans went three-and-out following this turnover on downs.

Allen and the Bills mounted a seven-play drive that actually did attempt a field goal, closing the score to 23-19 with 5:48 remaining in the game.
Had McDermott simply kicked the field goal on the previous series, rather than the failed fourth-and-1, the score of this game would have been 23-22 Texans with 5:48 remaining. This would have been a potential victory for the Bills, despite their poor offensive outing. In a one-point game, the Bills could have won in the last minute with another field goal. Instead, they were still down four points, which meant they had to go all the way to the end zone.

This final 13-play drive ended with another Allen interception. It also included two more sacks and a false start by Dawkins.

Final play​

Here, on fourth-and-6, Brady had a good play called for the man-to-man coverage the Texans were in. Knox was wide open.

Watch closely how Palmer changes his route after Allen had thrown the ball. Receivers should not adjust like that once they pick their angle. Palmer might have had this completion had he not changed his route angle so late. Clearly Allen passed up Knox who had no one covering him for a deeper throw to Palmer.

This seems to be the pattern for Allen this season – deep to short passing progression, instead of vice versa.

This play was penalized for pass interference on Davis and would have negated any completion by Allen. This penalty was declined by the Texans who intercepted Allen on the play.

Going back one more time: If Prater would have made his extra point early in this game and the Bills had kicked a field goal from the 22-yard line instead of going for it on fourth-and-1, this game would have been tied, 23-23, at this juncture and Prater would likely have made the field goal to win it.

The question we are all asking is the same question Josh Allen asked on the sideline: “What are we doing?”

CONCLUSION​

This was a game that the Bills should have won, even despite the poor execution.

During Allen’s MVP season, he threw 28 touchdowns to six interceptions. He took 14 sacks and threw the ball away 22 times.

This season, Allen has thrown 18 touchdowns to nine interceptions. He has taken 28 sacks, and only thrown the ball away six times.

In their last three games, the Bills have a 1-2 record against the Dolphins, Buccaneers and Texans. In those games, Allen has thrown five interceptions and taken 11 sacks (although Allen’s eight sacks in this game reflect a flawed game plan against a potent pass rush).

Allen’s sacks tell us he isn’t throwing the ball away. It says that he is trying to do more than he should.

This is professional football. Players are paid millions to do more than give effort. They must execute. That includes Allen above everyone else because of his value, because he handles the ball on every play.

This Bills team has a difficult road ahead. They will finish the regular season against the Steelers, Bengals, Patriots, Browns, Eagles and Jets. They will need to be honest with themselves and come to terms with their own failures to this point – too many penalties, way too many turnovers, missed tackles, and from Allen’s point of view, too many negative plays.

McDermott needs to stop chasing and take points when his offense earns them. All of this is a mindset shift toward doing what it takes to win games, no matter how close, how ugly, or how much criticism there may be.

Winning is what matters. This mindset is achievable for this group. They have proven it works and that they can operate in this way.

Allen’s play and mindset needs to be derived from the perspective that as the highest-paid player and most valuable asset, his play can make everyone better with consistent, disciplined ball distribution and protection. His performance elevates the players around him – or, from the other perspective, it exposes weaknesses. That may be a tall task at this juncture, but that needs to be his mission – improving the offense through decisive, smart and selfless play.

Overall QB Performance Grade: 85%​

Passing: 24 of 34 (70.6%), 253 yards, 0 TDs, 2 INTs, eight sacks
Rushing: Five carries, 20 yards, no fumbles, no TDs

 

[Bill Polar]

Football is a Dreadnought or more recently cold war arms race. I have a working theory that Allen stagnated under Dorsey because Dorsey used most of Daboll's play book. It was a good playbook, but the problem is defensive coordinators (guys who -other than Babbich- spend 20+ hours a day watching film and then 4 hours dreaming up ways- to stop what other teams are good at and zero in on flaws to exploit them) had lots of tape on that offense. So by mid 2023, Josh looked like shit. They elevated Brady. Brady put in new wrinkles and for a time he looked genius. The problem is defensive coordinators got enough tape on his offense and derailed it. A good OC, would build in new wrinkles and deception to mind fuck defenses. Brady is an okay OC, but not a good one.