Bills Mailbag: Should Joe Brady be on the hot seat after this season?
Buffalo News sports reporter Jay Skurski answers your questions about Joe Brady's future as Buffalo Bills offensive coordinator, the Bills' two-point conversion woes, offensive line depth and more in the midweek edition of the Bills Mailbag.
elcome back to the midweek Bills Mailbag. Let’s get right to your questions …
Josh asks: On second and 10 before the two-minute warning versus the Eagles, the Bills ran a run play to Ty Johnson that went for 1 yard. Then, coming out of the two-minute warning on third and 9, they ran a screen pass to Johnson that the Eagles were ready for. Weren’t those both head-scratching calls? Aren’t these examples of why Joe Brady should not be the offensive coordinator?
Jay: Yes, I was not a fan of either of those play calls. The bubble screen, in particular, on third and 9 was maddening. The Bills like that play, though, so they keep going back to it. Part of that could be because there is a lack of trust in the downfield receiving options. It was a brutal play call that was only rescued by the lateral on fourth down, which has now been executed to perfection twice to keep games alive this season. I’ve long believed that isolating one or even a few play calls in a single game is a bit unfair to the offensive coordinator. So I’m not willing to say Brady shouldn’t be the offensive coordinator because of them. We have to judge him on the entire body of work for the 2025 season, which isn’t over yet. Breaking news there, I know.
Bills offensive coordinator Joe Brady is seen during warmup Sunday before Buffalo's 13-12 loss to the Eagles at Highmark Stadium.
Joshua Bessex, Buffalo News
To this point in the season, Josh Allen has regressed from the past few years. Perhaps that was to be expected coming off an MVP season, but it’s troubling nonetheless. Not all of that falls on Brady, but as the offensive coordinator, he’s got to take ownership of it. The quickest way for Brady’s job to be in jeopardy is to show an inability to protect Allen, who is the most important person in the entire franchise. Against a pair of elite defenses this season, Houston and Philadelphia, that has been the case. The Bills’ hopes of going anywhere in the playoffs rest largely with Allen being healthy and at his best. He’s not either of those, right now. If that factors into an early playoff exit, I would fully expect Sean McDermott to have a hard decision to make about whether Brady is the right person to lead this offense. Allen’s opinion will carry significant weight, too.
If the Bills were to replace Brady, McDermott would have a stack of resumes a foot high of candidates desiring to call plays for Allen. We have to see how the rest of the season plays out, though, before we have that conversation. If the Bills make a deep playoff run, or even go all the way to the Super Bowl, Brady’s exit might come in the form of a head coaching job, not a firing.
Pete in Colorado asks: Riddle me this Jay: You have the No. 1-rated rushing offense in the league, you're having a slightly "down" game in which the defense is holding you to an average of about 4 yards per rush, you have a quarterback who is 6-foot-5, 250 pounds and a total beast and you need 2 yards to win the game. Why wouldn't you run the ball? The Bills are 1 of 7 on two-point conversion attempts this season. What has been the play distribution (run/pass) on those attempts? Would you agree that this aspect of their play-calling is in dire need of repair? Thanks for including me in my favorite news feature.
Jay: The Bills’ success rate on two-point conversion attempts this season is the worst in the NFL. As Pete points out, they are 1 of 7. The Rams and Titans have not attempted a two-point conversion this season, so excluding them leaves the Bills last in success rate. Buffalo’s seven two-point attempts is tied for second most in the league, behind only the Buccaneers, who have gone for two points eight times. The Bills have thrown the ball on all seven of their attempts, with the only successful conversion coming against the Bengals in Week 14 on a completion to Dawson Knox. Clearly, the Bills need to revamp their two-point strategy, because what they’ve tried this season has not worked.
Ed asks: Where would the Bills be this season without Shaq Thompson?
Jay: They’d be … worse off defensively. That’s stating the obvious, but I’m not sure how to answer this question in greater detail. Thompson hasn’t just been a good fit on the field. He’s a leader in the locker room. He’s got the alpha-dog mentality McDermott wants in his defensive players. We’ve heard in the past the Bills’ coach challenging his players to be more physical. He doesn’t have to worry about that with Thompson, who hits to hurt, but not in a dirty way.
Of the 94 linebackers who have played at least 210 defensive snaps in the NFL this season, Thompson ranks No. 39 in analytics website Pro Football Focus’ grading. That may not sound overly impressive, but keep in mind that when he was initially signed, there was no guarantee Thompson was even going to make the Bills’ roster. To your point, Ed, he’s been a hugely important addition to the defense, and will be going forward as middle linebacker Terrel Bernard deals with yet another injury.
Tony Pariso asks: I’m interested in the progress of the following players on the offensive line: Travis Clayton, Sedrick Van Pran-Granger, Chase Lundt. Do any of them have the potential to be starters?
Jay: Of the three, I’d give Van Pran-Granger the best chance, solely because center Connor McGovern is an impending unrestricted free agent. He is interested in returning, but with the Bills always up against the salary cap, there is no guarantee a deal between the two sides can be closed.
Clayton and Lundt face longer odds. Clayton was always going to be a project as a member of the NFL’s International Player Pathway program. Lundt is currently on injured reserve. We saw him work a bit on the interior of the offensive line during training camp and the preseason, so perhaps that versatility will help him down the road, but Dion Dawkins and Spencer Brown are established starters at tackle for the Bills, and that doesn’t appear to be changing any time soon.
Left guard David Edwards also is an impending free agent, so the Bills will have a decision to make, but even if he leaves, I wouldn’t consider Lundt the favorite to be the projected starter at that spot. The Bills have spent significant time developing all three players, but their mostly likely role, in my opinion, is that of depth options off the bench.
Bill Sullivan asks: My first grandson, Leo, was born in early December and my son already has him dressed in a Bills onesie and Bills hat. Am I being a responsible grandfather allowing him to become a Bills fan? Do I want him to experience what I have experienced over the years with false hopes being followed by crushing disappointment? Should he feel the pain of events such as “Wide Right,” “The Music City Miracle”, “13 Seconds” and, most recently, what I will call the “Two-Point Torment?” Maybe I should try to steer him into individual sports such as golf and tennis or maybe a team sport such as curling. What should I do, Jay?
Jay: You should follow your son’s lead and support him in his efforts to raise Leo as a Bills fan, Bill! One day, you’re going to be able to accompany both of them to Leo’s first game. What a special moment that will be for the three of you. That’s the beautiful part of supporting a team. Yes, the losses hurt, but it’s a shared pain. The camaraderie and sense of community that comes with supporting the Bills is a big part of what makes Western New York so special. Lean into that with Leo. Celebrate the wins and commiserate together after the losses. Of course, get him into golf, too.
