Bills Pregame: 4 keys for the Buffalo Bills to beat the New England Patriots


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Bills running back James Cook beats Patriots cornerback Christian Gonzalez on his way to the end zone for a touchdown on Dec. 22 at Highmark Stadium.
Joshua Bessex, Buffalo News


1. Every yard counts​

The New England Patriots have a special-teams unit that Buffalo Bills coach Sean McDermott is watching closely. The Patriots are first in the league in yards per punt return.

“They’ve built a really explosive roster,” McDermott said. “They’ve got a lot of team speed, in particular at the returner position. I think they’ve got three or four returns for touchdowns, if you include the preseason, as well. So, very impressed by what they’ve done, and we’re going to have to play a great game on special teams, for sure.” Meanwhile, the Bills are last in average opponent starting field position on punt returns, with 33.4 the average yard line.

2. Learn thy opponent​

The Bills are still getting a feel for AFC East opponent Drake Maye. Bills quarterback Josh Allen, who got to know Maye through their shared agency, has been impressed with the second-year quarterback. “He spins it as good as anyone in the league, his mechanics are really good, and to be that big and move the way he does, it’s impressive,” Allen said. Still, Maye is 23rd in completion percentage under pressure, at just 42%. The Bills' defense currently leads the league with a 46% pressure rate. New England has found its guy in Maye, but if the Bills' defense can affect him, it could be a long day for the Patriots' quarterback Sunday.

3. Eyes on the corners​

The Patriots' defense has Allen’s attention, particularly the cornerbacks.

“Christian Gonzalez and (Carlton) Davis out there, they’re really good at what they do,” Allen said Wednesday. “Bigger, physical corners. Not afraid to get up to the line of scrimmage and press you. So, again, we’ve got to have a good week of practice, and game plan extremely well, and go out there and execute.”

Gonzalez will play in just his second game this season after he missed the start of the year with a hamstring injury. He is a game-changer when he is on the field, so Allen will have to stay aware of the third-year corner.

4. Ready for Vrabel​

The Bills are familiar with Mike Vrabel, who took over as Patriots head coach this offseason. Vrabel spent 2018 to 2023 as coach of the Tennessee Titans, but McDermott also coached against Vrabel when he was still a player in Super Bowl XXXIX – Vrabel a linebacker with the Patriots, and McDermott the safeties coach of the Eagles. McDermott can already see Vrabel’s fingerprints on this version of the Patriots.

“They always play like he played, very physical,” McDermott said. “And we know that. And so, it's whenever you go against one of his defenses, you got to make sure you bring that part of your game.”
 

Bills-Patriots numbers to know: These 4 stats could shape AFC East matchup​


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Patriots quarterback Drake Maye will enter his second season with a new coach (Mike Vrabel) and offensive coordinator (Josh McDaniels).
Joshua Bessex, Buffalo News


80.65​

Patriots quarterback Drake Maye has completed 80.65% of his passes on third down for 298 yards and three touchdowns. New England is fourth in the NFL in expected points added per third-down pass, according to Next Gen Stats, even though Maye has been pressured in those situations more than all but nine quarterbacks. The Buffalo Bills' defense ranks 25th in third-down defense, though they are eighth in EPA per pass allowed.

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Bills center Connor McGovern blocks for Josh Allen against the New York Giants during the first half of an NFL preseason game on Aug. 9.
Harry Scull Jr., Buffalo News


21.7​

New England's defensive line looks improved with the addition of Milton Williams, but this matchup will be the most difficult it has faced. Josh Allen has been pressured less than any quarterback in the NFL, in large part due to an offensive line that is also responsible for blocking for the league's best rushing attack. The Bills rank first in rushing yards per game (163.5) and rushing touchdowns (9), while their 16 rushes of 10-plus yards are tied for fourth-most in the NFL. James Cook has 401 rushing yards and five touchdowns on 75 carries.

1​

Patriots rookie left tackle Will Campbell, the fourth pick in the draft, has allowed just one sack on 159 pass-blocking snaps, according to Pro Football Focus. His run-blocking grade on the website, however, ranks 25th among 58 offensive tackles who have played at least 50% of their team's snaps. None of the Patriots' offensive linemen have a run-blocking grade higher than 67.2%. The matchup in the trenches will be important to watch this week.

40​

Special teams is an area of focus for the Bills as they prepare for this game. The Patriots are the only NFL team to return a punt and kickoff for a touchdown this season. Cornerback Marcus Jones had an 87-yard punt return for a touchdown in Week 4, and running back Antonio Gibson had a 90-yard kickoff return in Week 2. New England has two kickoff returns of 40-plus yards, and Jones has two punt returns of 40-plus yards. The Bills will use their third punter this season on Sunday night. They are 25th in net yards per punt, but only two teams have punted fewer times than Buffalo.
 

Bills-Patriots: Who you got? Buffalo News writers make their predictions for Sunday's game​

Jay Skurski​

Talk about a home-field advantage: Dating back to Week 11 of the 2023 season through today, the Bills have become just the fourth team in NFL history to win 14 consecutive regular-season home games while scoring at least 24 points in each. The Patriots have been game opponents for Buffalo in recent seasons, so it’s fair to expect a close game. The Bills have shown an ability to pull out victories recently, and they do so again Sunday night. Bills, 27-23.

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Bills center Connor McGovern pass blocks against the New England Patriots during last year's game in Buffalo.
Harry Scull Jr., Buffalo News


Katherine Fitzgerald

The Bills are rolling, but the New England Patriots could be feisty. Coach Mike Vrabel and quarterback Drake Maye will have New England competitive, but it's too early for the Patriots to really make a splash against the Bills. It would be big for the Bills if they're able to get defensive tackle Ed Oliver and linebacker Matt Milano back, but if not, the defense can still get the takeaways it continues to need. The Bills win this one under the Sunday night lights. Bills, 28-24.

Lance Lysowski

After missing the playoffs four seasons in a row, New England is trending up. Drake Maye is one of the NFL's best young quarterbacks. His left tackle, rookie Will Campbell, looks like a franchise bookend. Mike Vrabel is a good head coach with a reputation for instilling physicality into his teams. The defensive line is improved, though defensive tackle Milton Williams may not play, and cornerback Christian Gonzalez is excellent. But the Patriots don't have the depth yet to win on the road at Highmark Stadium. This one will be close because of Maye, but Josh Allen will ensure that Buffalo improves to 3-0 against divisional opponents. Bills, 30-24.

Steve Trosky

It kind of feels like Old Home Week with the Patriots bringing former Bills receivers Stefon Diggs and Mack Hollins back to Buffalo. It looks like New England got it right by taking quarterback Drake Maye with the No. 3 overall pick last year. Maye ranks first in the league with a 74 completion percentage, he is sixth with 988 passing yards and is among the top 10 quarterbacks in rushing yards. But he isn't Josh Allen. The Patriots rank 25th in the league in rushing yards per game (101.3). The Bills' defense gets it done. Bills, 31-21.
 
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