Bills-Ravens: What does recent history tells about this Week 1 blockbuster? Let's take a look
Both the Buffalo Bills and the Baltimore Ravens have made changes since their last meeting in January, a 27-25 win for Buffalo in the AFC divisional round, but revisiting those games can provide some clues as to how they'll try to stop each other at Highmark Stadium.
It has been 11 days since Buffalo Bills coach Sean McDermott addressed reporters.
Since then, general manager Brandon Beane has cut the roster to 53 players and brought back some notable veterans, including safety Jordan Poyer, to the practice squad.
The health of cornerback Tre’Davious White remains a mystery. The Bills’ top cornerback, Christian Benford, didn’t practice last Wednesday, the last time reporters were allowed to see players on the field. McDermott will provide an update today when he addresses media ahead of their season opener against on the Baltimore Ravens on Sunday night.
Both teams have made changes since their last meeting in January, a 27-25 win for Buffalo in the AFC divisional round, but revisiting those games can provide some clues as to how they’ll try to stop each other at Highmark Stadium:
Bills quarterback Josh Allen completed 16 of 22 passes for 127 yards against the Ravens in the AFC divisional round playoff game in January at Highmark Stadium.
Harry Scull Jr., Buffalo News
Notable absence
Ravens coach John Harbaugh declined to provide an update to reporters Monday on the status of injured tight end Isaiah Likely, who hasn’t practiced for five weeks because of a small fracture in one of his feet.
The Ravens still have Mark Andrews, 29. He is their starter, and teammates told reporters Monday that the tight end wants redemption after he dropped the game-tying 2-point conversion in the fourth quarter.
“He’s a true warrior,” left tackle Ronnie Stanley told reporters Monday. “He’s going to push through those moments. I know he’s excited to prove to himself and everyone else that he’s still that guy.”
Likely is an important part of their game plan, though. He played a career-high 60% of the Ravens’ snaps last season because he is their second tight end in heavy personnel. The Ravens used either two backs with a tight end, one back with two tight ends or two backs with two tight ends together in 62% of their offensive plays during the 2024 regular season.
The Ravens trust their third tight end, Charlie Kolar, to fill in, but he is not the same athlete or receiver. In the AFC divisional round, Baltimore completed 19 passes for 153 yards when using two tight ends with one back. The Ravens also gained 76 yards on eight carries, but Lamar Jackson threw an interception in the second quarter. Their longest completion in so-called 12 personnel (one back, two tight ends) went to Likely, who gained 39 yards on the first drive of the game. He finished with four catches for a team-high 73 yards and a fourth-quarter touchdown that cut Buffalo’s lead to 27-25.
Up frontHow will the Bills’ defensive line fare against the Ravens’ heavy personnel? Buffalo bottled up Derrick Henry in the first half of the playoff game, containing the future Hall of Famer to just 21 yards on eight carries. When Baltimore had two backs on the field, Buffalo used Dorian Williams as a third linebacker. Sean McDermott and his defensive coordinator, Bobby Babich, may use more base defense Sunday night, with veteran linebacker Shaq Thompson another option to play next to Matt Milano and Terrel Bernard. One of the linebackers will be a spy on Jackson, who had 93 rushing yards in two games against the Bills last season.
Bills linebacker Terrel Bernard, center, celebrates with teammates after forcing a fumble by Ravens tight end Mark Andrews during their January playoff matchup
in Orchard Park Harry Scull Jr., Buffalo News
In the AFC divisional round, Baltimore gained 52 yards on 11 rushes with two backs and two tight ends on the field together.
This is a measuring-stick game for the Bills’ revamped defensive line. It’s the first time we’ll see Joey Bosa rushing the quarterback for Buffalo in a regular-season game. The rookie defensive tackles, T.J. Sanders and Deone Walker, need to be reliable when they rotate onto the field. The team’s defensive-line depth is challenged with the suspensions of edge rusher Michael Hoecht and defensive tackle Larry Ogunjobi, as well as the season-ending injury to second-year defensive tackle DeWayne Carter. It may be too soon for Jordan Phillips to come up from the practice squad, so the rookies will be tested early.
The Ravens had 176 rushing yards on 30 carries in the playoff game – a vast improvement from the 271 yards the Bills allowed in their Week 4 loss in Baltimore. Between the two games, Buffalo allowed 15 rushes of 10-plus yards and, according to Next Gen Stats, Baltimore averaged 4.05 rushing yards before contact per carry.
The Bills’ pass rush will need to get to Jackson. His two turnovers in the playoff game happened while he was blitzed by Buffalo’s defense. But they also need to be stout against the run. The group has practiced together in pads for nearly five weeks. However, it takes time for four linemen to play as one unit.
“It’s a challenge to learn to rush together, learn what people’s tendencies are, what their favorite moves are, what they have success with and then young guys having knowledge of the defense,” Bills edge rusher A.J. Epenesa said. “I’ve gone through this myself, having the knowledge of who’s next to. … With these young guys, all those things are starting to happen. It’s fun to watch and fun to be a part of.”
Third-down defense
The Ravens converted 12 of their 19 third downs in their two games against the Bills last season.
Buffalo can’t give Jackson as much time to throw. He had a clean pocket on his two touchdown passes in the AFC divisional round. But the Bills also need their secondary to cover the Ravens’ offensive weapons. With three receivers on the field in the playoff game, Jackson completed each of his four passes for 49 yards, including a 24-yard touchdown pass to Likely in the fourth quarter.
The Ravens will try creative ways to get the ball to Zay Flowers, who ranked 13th among NFL receivers last season in yards gained after the catch. They also have Rashod Bateman and DeAndre Hopkins, among others.
The Bills’ defensive allowed an average of 421.5 yards in those two games, as the Ravens converted 12 of their 19 third downs. Buffalo ranked 29th last season in third-down conversion rate.
“It’s our job to ultimately take that next step and complement the defense,” Bills defensive line coach Marcus West said last month, referring to his group’s role in helping Buffalo get off the field on third down.
On offense
A neutral game script in the AFC divisional round allowed the Bills to lean on their rushing attack early. Buffalo gained 36 yards on nine rushes during an 11-play, 70-yard touchdown drive to start the game. All but two of those plays were with three receivers on the field.
It was vastly different than the Bills’ first drive in their Week 4 loss to the Ravens, when Buffalo moved the ball 20 yards in seven plays before a punt by Sam Martin. In the two meetings, the Bills ran for four touchdowns and gained 18 rushing yards over expected, according to Next Gen Stats, even though they ran into a stacked box on 40.7% of their carries.
Josh Allen averaged just 140.5 passing yards in the two games, but the offense looked much better in the divisional round. The Bills converted five of their 11 third downs – they were 3 for 13 in Week 4 – and won the time-of-possession-battle by more than three minutes. Buffalo ran for 147 yards on 36 carries and scored three touchdowns in the playoff game.
Personnel
How much will the Bills use heavy personnel in this game? They gained 42 yards on nine plays with an extra offensive lineman on the field in the divisional round, but they also stretched the field in three-receiver sets. On those plays, Buffalo gained 90 yards on Allen’s 18 completions, and the team ran for 85 yards on 22 carries.
For the Bills, five starters returned on the offensive line. Their three running backs are also back, plus their receiving corps should be improved with the development of Keon Coleman and addition of Joshua Palmer. Dalton Kincaid is also healthy entering his third NFL season. The Ravens’ defense is considered one of the best in the NFL, and they tried to improve it this offseason by drafting safety Malaki Starks in the first round.
Buffalo’s offense has used the offseason to prepare for the different ways defenses will try to stop them this season. The philosophy hasn’t changed, but offensive coordinator Joe Brady added wrinkles to try to be unpredictable.
“It’s going to be great motivation,” Ravens defensive tackle Nnamdi Madubuike told reporters Monday. “It was the last game that we played as a unit, so to go back there to play the same team we lost to, that we believe we should have (beaten). We made self-inflicting mistakes. Everybody is fired up.”