Bills thoughts: The DaQuan Jones plan, Patriots prediction, Matt Milano comeback denied
The Bills can clinch a playoff spot this week, starting with a win over the Patriots.
theathletic.com
As unlikely as it seemed three weeks ago, the Buffalo Bills have a chance to clinch their playoff ticket in 2023 with one game left to play. The first step is defeating the New England Patriots on Sunday.
After that, the clearest path is two of the Cincinnati Bengals, Pittsburgh Steelers or Jacksonville Jaguars to lose their Week 17 matchup, which secures at least a wild-card position for Buffalo in the playoffs. And should the Miami Dolphins lose to the Baltimore Ravens, it would mean the Dolphins and Bills meet in Week 18 for the AFC East title and No. 2 seed in the playoffs.
But all the playoff hypotheticals begin with the Patriots. What did Week 17 bring to Bills practice? Here are several things to watch.
The DaQuan Jones plan?
As slim as it seemed at the time of injury, the Bills hoped for starting defensive tackle DaQuan Jones to find his way back to the playing field this season, and for the team to have games that mattered down the stretch for him to return to. The Bills saw both of those hopes come true this week, as coach Sean McDermott announced Jones would not only be added to the 53-man roster this week, but is expected to play Sunday against the Patriots.It’s a humongous addition to a defensive tackle group that has just been getting by without Jones. Ed Oliver has been outstanding all season, but the pieces around him have all left a bit to be desired. Jordan Phillips was an imperfect fit at one-technique, the 35-year-old Linval Joseph is at the stage of his career where he’s best utilized as a rotational player, and the duo of Tim Settle and Poona Ford, despite both having solid games against the Los Angeles Chargers, have underperformed this year relative to expectation. As the team’s best run-stuffer up the middle and adding the type of pass-rushing acumen he did over the first four weeks, Jones is as close to a game-changing acquisition as the Bills could have at this point of the season. In our weekly All-22 film study, he amassed a 3.41 GPA in his 113 defensive snaps. There are only two qualifying players on the team with a higher GPA at this point: linebacker Matt Milano and Oliver.
However, it’s been a lengthy layoff for Jones, who hasn’t played in a game since Oct. 8. That’s why getting him active this week, one full game ahead of a potential showdown in Miami, was so important. For players with that long of a layoff from an injury, the Bills’ preference has been to slowly ramp them up for at least their first game back. For context, Jones’ usual workload when healthy through the first four games put him at 51.2 percent of defensive snaps. It’s not a massive workload compared to others, but it’s understandable when you consider Jones’ size and responsibilities every down. So, in his first game back, I expect between 30 to 45 percent of snaps, right in the range of the usual workload of the Bills’ rotational defensive tackles. Last week against the Chargers, all three of Settle (43 percent), Ford (39) and Joseph (34) were in that range of snaps, while Oliver was way out front with 76 percent. Even if Jones’ snaps may be slightly muted compared to his usual workload, he should and likely will spend much of his time working next to Oliver — which could also include getting the “start” ahead of Settle, Joseph and Ford. Then, if all goes well, it’ll be a full go for Jones when the Dolphins game comes around.