The Bills probably won't severely limit Travis Kelce and Patrick Mahomes for a second game in a row.
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When the Bills and Chiefs meet in the AFC Championship Game on Sunday, there likely won’t be anyone getting caught off-guard. That’s because of the sheer volume of games they have played against each other with Josh Allen and Patrick Mahomes as the starting quarterbacks.
As rivals outside the division go, it’s hard to find a better one than these two AFC behemoths. Over the last five seasons, they have played each other eight times in the equivalent of a half-decade-long heavyweight fight.
Five regular season contests, in which the Bills have gone 4-1, and three playoff games, in which, famously, the Chiefs have gone 3-0. Because of the postseason success, the scorer’s table would clearly rule in favor of the Chiefs. But the Bills have reason to be optimistic that this will be the year, at long last, they get past the Chiefs in the postseason.
“It’s like a division game,” quarterback Josh Allen said. “With that comes familiarity. New wrinkles here and there throughout the game. But they know who we are, we know who they are. It literally just comes down to who executes well on Sunday.”
The last five times these teams have played, it’s been an instant classic, with a sixth likely on deck. Here’s our AFC Championship week Bills notebook.
Is there a big Josh Allen game loading?
In their first two playoff games, the Bills combined their outstanding running game and a shutdown defensive effort to defeat the Broncos, and a takeaway spree to get the job done against the Ravens. The Bills have been winning in different ways all season, but usually it comes back to Allen, their MVP candidate, to push them over the top.
Against the Broncos, Allen played mistake-free football, putting the Bills in a position to succeed repeatedly, but they didn’t need him to have that over-the-top performance because of how well the running game was performing.
Against the Ravens, Allen was even less involved, passing for only 127 yards and rushing 10 times for 20 yards. Yes, he had a couple of touchdown runs, but it was nowhere near the level of dominance he displayed from Week 9 through the end of the year.
The Ravens game, in particular, had some uncharacteristic mistakes from Allen. Whether it was an errant pass that he normally hits, or not taking advantage of a throwing window that he did routinely throughout the year, he left some meat on the bone in the divisional round.
Allen has long been his own toughest critic. He is extremely hard on himself when he sees missed opportunities on film from the previous game. But it usually isn’t in a toxic way that impacts his next game negatively. By and large, he has an uncanny knack for taking the singular piece that he struggled with in the previous game and completely upending it the next week. Many times, it has led to a dominant game.
Allen hasn’t had to go through that all that often this season, considering it’s easily been the best full season of his career. Part of the reason is he has played within himself, so much so that he’s avoided the turnovers that haunted him in previous seasons.
But Allen has long internalized keeping himself sharp, and he will look for any little edge to push himself over the top for the following game. There certainly won’t be any lacking for motivation Sunday, considering his first-ever trip to the Super Bowl is on the line. But there’s a good chance Allen has just a bit extra this weekend, stemming from what he didn’t do in his previous outing. With Allen taking somewhat of a backseat these last two games, it wouldn’t be a surprise if he has one of those vintage Allen MVP-like games on Sunday.
What will the Chiefs do on third down?
Chiefs defensive coordinator Steve Spagnuolo has earned a certain reputation for how well he supplies pressure on an opponent at a clutch moment of a game. The Chiefs have the fifth-highest blitz rate of any team in the NFL this season, sending an extra rusher on 23 percent of their opportunities. But when it gets to third down, Spagnuolo ratchets up the pressure, sending an extra pass rusher 34.3 percent of the time. Against the Bills in Week 11, he bumped that up to a 40 percent blitz rate. The results were hit and miss, tied to one specific factor.
The Chiefs play a heavy amount of man coverage on third down, with a season-long rate of 39.1 percent, according to TruMedia. When the Chiefs sent a blitz at Allen on third down and gave the remaining coverage players the assignment of man-to-man, the Chiefs didn’t stop the Bills on third down a single time.
When the Chiefs played man coverage on six third-down opportunities, even without a blitz, the Bills went a perfect 6-for-6. When the Chiefs sent a blitz and played zone on the backend, the Bills were 0-for-3 on third-down attempts.
Those results make it very intriguing to see if Spagnuolo will flip his tendency to utilize man coverage at as high a rate as he usually does. Interestingly, last year in the postseason, the Chiefs used man coverage at the lowest rate of any of their matchups against the Bills dating to 2020. This will be one of the key chess moves of the matchup.
Locating Travis Kelce when the play breaks down
As per usual, legendary Chiefs tight end Travis Kelce has saved his best for the postseason. Even with the Texans putting up a good fight last week against the Chiefs early, Kelce rocked them for a vintage game, gaining 117 yards and a key touchdown to help send the Chiefs back to another AFC Championship Game.
Defending Kelce when the ball gets snapped is of the utmost importance because of how in tune Mahomes is with Kelce to exploit weak areas of the defense. But when you add in how Kelce can improvise and find a weak spot when the play breaks down and Mahomes gets out of structure, that’s when the back-breaking plays come into the equation.
The last time around, the Bills had a very clear plan for Kelce and executed it for most of the game. If Mahomes moved off his spot, that would signal two things to the usually on-looking Bills zone defenders, who would bend their usual zone rules to make it all go.
One was to have whoever was closest to Mahomes make it tough on him, and two was for the defender in the middle of the field to turn his back to Mahomes and go find Kelce, sticking to him like glue.
The Bills used the same strategy when they had Tremaine Edmunds in previous years, and in Week 11 they utilized middle linebacker Terrel Bernard to do the same. It resulted in Kelce having one of his worst games of the season, catching only two passes for 8 yards. Mahomes was held without a rushing attempt.
While the Bills will have to use some new wrinkles on defense because the Chiefs will be expecting a similar approach, it’s an approach that has done well for the Bills in the past. And while it’s unlikely they duplicate the same stifling success against Kelce on the big stage of the AFC Championship Game, offering resistance to him taking over a game will be a massive key.
Quick hit key matchups
DE A.J. Epenesa or Greg Rousseau vs. LT Joe Thuney — I believe, overwhelmingly, Rousseau is the potential X-factor of this game. I like his matchup against right tackle Jawaan Taylor with how Rousseau uses his length. And when Rousseau moonlights on the right side on third downs against the usual guard-turned-left tackle Thuney, this is a mismatch.
But don’t count out Epenesa’s X-factor potential in this game either. He can explode for a big game when he has a good matchup. And this would qualify as a good matchup for Epenesa.
DT Ed Oliver vs. LG Mike Caliendo — With Thuney at left tackle, Caliendo moves into the starting five, and that is a potential liability for the Bills defensive tackles to exploit. It starts with Oliver, who is the best at getting pressure from the interior defensive line. It’s likely that Caliendo gets a fair share of help, but if there is a one-on-one situation on a pass-rushing rep, it could yield big results. Keep an eye on Dawuane Smoot (third downs) and Jordan Phillips to pop for a big play or two, as well.
WR Khalil Shakir vs. NCB Chamarri Conner — Shakir had one of the toughest matchups against the Ravens, but that turns around this week. Conner is solid but susceptible to getting beat in man coverage, which the Chiefs do their fair share of, particularly on third down. With Jaylen Watson back for the Chiefs and having had a good game at boundary cornerback last week, along with the usually sterling Trent McDuffie, finding success between the numbers might be the sweet spot this weekend for the passing offense.
DT Chris Jones vs. RG O’Cyrus Torrence or C Connor McGovern — By now, you know full well what Chris Jones can do to a game. He is one of the biggest stars at his position. I expect the Bills to have a pretty defined plan for Jones when the Chiefs don’t blitz, which could yield some heavy double-team game planning. But if there’s an isolated one-on-one, it’s good to keep an eye on both of these matchups.
S Cole Bishop vs. WR deep speed — With starting safety Taylor Rapp missing Thursday’s practice, it doesn’t look promising for him to play. That means rookie Cole Bishop would get the start, and because of his relative inexperience compared to the rest of the defense, that is a pressure point for the Chiefs to try to target. Whether with rookie Xavier Worthy or Hollywood Brown, targeting Bishop to open up the intermediate in front of him could be an emphasis, with the intention to take a deep shot later in the game once Bishop’s guard is down.
Projected practice squad elevations: OL Will Clapp, S Kareem Jackson
Projected inactives: QB Mike White (3rd QB), OL Ryan Van Demark, OL Sedrick Van Pran-Granger, DT DeWayne Carter, CB Kaiir Elam, S Taylor Rapp, KR/PR Brandon Codrington
Prediction: Bills 31, Chiefs 24
With due respect to the Bengals and their two-year run over the last five years, the Bills and Chiefs have been the class of the AFC year after year. They have routinely re-invented themselves, masterfully, to keep a few steps ahead of the present-day trends in the NFL. Double-digit regular season wins and playoff runs have been a certainty for both. But Sunday feels like a critical moment for both franchises.
For the Chiefs, it’s keeping the Bills below them in the playoffs as one of Kansas City’s best talents, Kelce, nears the end of his career. For the Bills, it’s trying to break through to reach the climax of this five-year story arc that has kept these franchises so connected for so long. It really does not get much better than what will unfold on Sunday.
Ultimately, I think this is the Bills’ year to break through for several reasons. Allen is a very obvious first reason, as the way he’s played this year — essentially being defense-proof regardless of the strategy thrown at him — can push them forward.
On top of that, it’s the Bills’ offensive line. It has risen from slightly above average in 2023 to one of the best of the NFL. And specifically in this matchup, the Chiefs’ biggest defensive strength is how they get after the quarterback. The Bills having an equal or superior strength to go against the opponent’s strength — one that directly correlates with their quarterback’s performance — can be a massive edge in this game.
The Chiefs are too good to think that it will be that simple, though. Their offense knows it didn’t have its best game in Week 11, and I’m expecting some more firepower from that unit on Sunday.
I would be shocked if the Bills limited Kelce to only two catches for 8 yards, and Mahomes to no rushing attempts. The defense will have its hands full now that the Chiefs offense is back to full health with running back Isiah Pacheco and wide receiver Brown available after missing Week 11.
However, with the way the Chiefs are structured and some of their key weaknesses on the offensive line, along with some exploitable pieces on defense, I believe they can be beeat — even in a matchup they have dominated for years. And the Bills have the right strengths in those key areas to exploit them.
I’m expecting another instant classic of a game, one that will likely come down to one of the last possessions. But in the end, I think Allen and the Bills will do just enough to get to their first Super Bowl in 31 years.
