Bills vs. Chiefs is always a big one – but this year, the stakes feel even higher. Here's why
The Bills can say Sunday's matchup against the Chiefs is just another game all they want. But we all know that’s not true. Anytime these teams take the field, it’s memorable. It’s special. It’s also hugely important.
Josh Allen’s go-to line is that the Buffalo Bills’ biggest game is always the next one on the schedule.
But does the team’s starting quarterback really, truly believe that? Especially this week, when the opponent is the big, bad Kansas City Chiefs?
“Still holds true,” Allen said Wednesday during his weekly news conference.
Sure, Josh.
Nickel cornerback Taron Johnson struck a similar tone.
“Every game, I’m focused on that game so much, that I don’t really feel the ‘extra-ness’ of it,” he said. “I’m still going through my same process. I’m preparing like how I would for anybody else.”
Sure, Taron.
That’s all well and good, but the Chiefs aren’t just “anybody else.” They are the rock in the Bills’ shoe. They are the riddle for which there is no answer, specifically in the postseason. They are the measuring stick for the rest of the AFC, just as they have been for the entirety of the partnership between coach Andy Reid and quarterback Patrick Mahomes.
So the Bills can say it’s just another game all they want. But we all know that’s not true. Anytime these teams take the field, it’s memorable. It’s special. It’s also hugely important.
So that sets the stage for 4:25 p.m. Sunday inside Highmark Stadium.
This will be the 10th time facing the Kansas City Chiefs for Bills quarterback Josh Allen.
Harry Scull Jr., Buffalo News
The Bills enter at 5-2, a half-game ahead of the 5-3 Chiefs in the AFC overall standings. A Buffalo victory puts the Bills up 1½ games over Kansas City, with the Chiefs on bye in Week 10 and the Bills visiting the floundering Dolphins. Beat the Chiefs and then the Dolphins, and suddenly the Bills are 6-2, and for all practical purposes, they're three games ahead of the Chiefs with the head-to-head tiebreaker.
Lose, and the Bills are a half-game behind the Chiefs in the standings, but because of the head to head, that’s more like 1½ games. It’ll probably feel like more than that, too.
The Chiefs come into Orchard Park as 2½-point favorites – a reflection on how they’ve looked during a three-game winning streak in which they’ve outscored opponents 89-24, and on the Bills' inconsistency dating to a sloppy Week 4 win against New Orleans. While the Bills enter Week 9 following an easy 40-9 victory at Carolina, that performance alone didn’t do enough to erase the stain of what has been a tough stretch, particularly for the passing offense.
Allen has not looked true to MVP form. The wide receivers haven’t often been open, leading to intense speculation about what general manager Brandon Beane might do to address that problem before the Tuesday trade deadline.
The running game has made up for that at times, especially against the Panthers, but it figures to be a challenge for James Cook to duplicate that kind of performance against the Chiefs. Kansas City hasn’t given up 100 rushing yards to an individual player since Ravens quarterback Lamar Jackson gained 122 in the 2024 season opener. That’s a streak of 27 straight games, including the playoffs, which is the longest in the NFL.
The last time Kansas City gave up 100 rushing yards to an individual running back was on Christmas Day in 2023, when the Raiders’ Zamir White gained 145.
What’s at stake
Back-to-back losses ahead of the bye week not only knocked the Bills out of their usual perch atop the AFC East; it also dealt a blow to the team’s pursuit of the No. 1 seed in the AFC. Currently, Buffalo has an 88% chance of making the postseason, according to ESPN’s Football Power Index, but just a 51% chance to win the AFC East – a virtual coin flip with the Patriots. The Bills’ chances of earning the No. 1 seed, and the bye week in the playoffs that comes with it, are at just 14% – the same percentage given to them to make it to the Super Bowl.
Buffalo Bills quarterback Josh Allen throws a pass against the Kansas City Chiefs during their meeting Nov. 17, 2024, at Highmark Stadium.
The Bills won this meeting 30-21 but lost the AFC championship game 32-29 on Jan. 26 at Kansas City.
Harry Scull Jr., Buffalo News
The Chiefs, meanwhile, have the same 88% chance of making the playoffs, along with a 47% chance of winning the AFC West. Kansas City’s chances of earning the No. 1 seed are at 15%, but their Super Bowl chances are much higher at 24%. The winner of Sunday’s game will see a spike in those numbers, particularly in the quest for the all-important No. 1 seed.
That's something the Bills have never had under Sean McDermott, and it should remain the goal for this season. Beating Kansas City would go a long way toward making that possibility a lot more realistic.
“You never want to make a big game bigger than what it is,” Bills safety Jordan Poyer said. “Obviously, yeah, everybody outside of here is going to talk about the Chiefs and the Bills. Us inside – it is our next game, understanding we respect every opponent that we play and understanding the opponent that we are facing.”
The Bills’ remaining 11 opponents, including Kansas City, have a winning percentage of .481, which gives them the No. 20 remaining strength of schedule in the NFL (in other words, it's relatively weak). Buffalo’s toughest games after the Chiefs are home against Philadelphia and Tampa Bay and on the road at New England and Pittsburgh.
The Chiefs, meanwhile, have the No. 4 remaining strength of schedule, a path that includes two games against the Broncos, as well as home dates with the Colts and Chargers.
The Bills’ only competition in the AFC East, the Patriots, have the easiest remaining schedule – a reality that only adds to the importance of Sunday’s game for the Bills. Realistically, the Bills can probably only lose once or twice more this season if they want the No. 1 seed, and neither of those losses can come to the Chiefs or Patriots.
So beating the Chiefs is critical. But not only for what it would mean in the standings.
The collective psyche of Bills Mafia might need it even more.
The reality is, the Bills haven’t looked like a Super Bowl team for most of the season. Certainly that was true from Week 4 through the team’s bye.
Bills running back James Cook stretches for the goal line on fourth down after absorbing a hit by Chiefs linebacker
Nick Bolton during the AFC championship game Jan. 26 at Arrowhead Stadium in Kansas City.
Joshua Bessex, Buffalo News
A familiar foe
Beating Kansas City would go a long way toward reversing that. It’s something the Bills have done plenty of times before in the regular season, including the last four times they’ve met. Of course, the Chiefs are so deeply ingrained in the heads of Bills fans that there is a segment of the fan base that has deluded themselves into believing that losing to the Chiefs in the regular season would be acceptable, because then it might finally mean getting past them in the playoffs. Of course, in reality, those two things aren’t related. Nor do the results of previous matchups in this rivalry matter all that much for this year’s meeting.“Every game is different; every year is different,” Allen said. “Everything presents itself in a different way. Nothing that happened last year or the year before, or the year before that carries over or matters this week.
“They've got a lot of guys that returned from last year's squad, but they got some new guys. They're doing some different things, we're doing different things. We’ve got to come out and the best football that we can play.”
That usually happens for Allen against Kansas City. In his nine career games against the Chiefs, the Buffalo quarterback has 24 total touchdowns against just five interceptions. Of course, Mahomes has been every bit Allen’s equal, with 22 total touchdowns and just three interceptions, throwing for 273.9 yards per game.
“He is who he is,” Bills coach Sean McDermott said of Mahomes. “I mean, he’s an incredible player. He’s had a huge impact on this league, and you see kids wearing the jerseys, you see kids wearing Josh’s jersey. When you grow up watching players like Josh and like Patrick, they impact their communities, and they impact the world, really, because of who they are and how they do things, so certainly a ton of respect for him.”
After a slow start to the season without receivers Rashee Rice and Xavier Worthy, Mahomes has been on a heater recently. He’s tied for the NFL lead with the Rams’ Matthew Stafford with 17 touchdown passes, and he has thrown for at least three TDs in his past three games. Mahomes has only extended such a streak to four straight games twice in his career, in 2018 and 2021.
The Bills and Chiefs will play Sunday for the 10th time, including the postseason, since the start of the 2020 season. No other non-division matchups have happened more than six times in that span.
“We've seen a lot of different versions of the Chiefs,” Bills defensive coordinator Bobby Babich said. “You feel like it's a division game, almost. You feel like you're going to play them twice a year.”
This version of the Chiefs has something in common with those of the past. Tight end Travis Kelce is Mahomes’ favorite target. He leads the Chiefs with 474 receiving yards, and his average of 12.8 yards per catch is his best in the past five seasons.
"They're tough," Babich said. "They're tough to go against."
Bills fans know that all too well. Like it or not, the challenge has arrived.