For just the fourth time this season, the
Bills will host a regular season game in Orchard Park, a much-welcomed sight after spending five of their last seven games on the road. And on Sunday, they’ll look to deliver a crushing blow to a
Dolphins team in desperate need of a win if it has any lingering hope of winning the division.
The Bills will enter their Sunday afternoon contest with a 3.5-game lead on the second-place Dolphins. If the Bills were to win, they’d not only up that by one game, but also would clinch the tiebreaker on the Dolphins, effectively giving them a five-and-a-half game lead on Miami.
What stands out about this rematch from Week 2, which featured the Bills blowing out the Dolphins? Here is our Week 9 Bills notebook.
Will the Bills have Terrel Bernard on Sunday?
After leaving the Week 7 win over the
Titans prematurely with an ankle injury, starting middle linebacker Terrel Bernard was shut down from practice all last week, making him a quick rule out for the
Seahawks contest. While in most cases, the Bills bring their injured players with them to travel on game days, they left Bernard at home.
The idea was to lessen the impact on Bernard’s ankle from traveling and to keep the swelling down as much as possible while he rehabbed in their practice facility to give him the best chance of a quick return. As the Bills went through their first two practices of the week, it seems like that plan has worked.
They listed Bernard as limited through his first two sessions, but during the practices, he seemed to be moving well on the ankle. As long as Bernard doesn’t go through any setbacks on Friday or Saturday, it appears as though he’s trending toward being available on Sunday against the Dolphins. It would have been a potentially different story had Bernard missed the first practice, and they were trying to manage it through the week, but Bernard has seemingly responded well to the added workload this week.
His return would be massive against a Dolphins team that will be looking to get its top rushing duo of
De’Von Achane and
Raheem Mostert started early in the contest. The Bills did a masterful job without Bernard against the Seahawks, but his availability would be a big upgrade to the starting lineup.
Much different defensive matchup from Week 2 for both teams
As long as the Bills get Bernard back into the lineup, they’ll head into the rematch having two of their top defenders back in an every-down role, which they didn’t have last time. Bernard had to leave in the first quarter with an injury and did not return, while the Bills also were playing without star nickel corner
Taron Johnson.
On top of that, the Bills have seen much better play at safety from at least one-half of their starting pairing, with
Taylor Rapp taking a step forward over the last three games. They still have some concerns at the other safety spot with
Damar Hamlin and in generating a consistent pass rush from the right side. But outside of that, the Bills’ defensive ceiling has a much rosier outlook than it did in Week 2.
On the flip side, the defensive environment for the Dolphins has worsened. They lost their top pass rusher from that game,
Jaelan Phillips, to a season-ending injury. On top of that, the Dolphins may be without three other core starters on Sunday.
Defensive lineman
Zach Sieler, their best player on that unit, sat out Week 8 with an eye injury and has yet to practice this week. Nickel corner
Kader Kohou also missed Week 8 with a neck injury and is in danger of missing another game after not having practiced yet this week. But the most stinging loss could be their playmaking safety
Jevon Holland, who Bills quarterback
Josh Allen often has high regard for in news conferences. Holland left Week 8’s game with an injury and has yet to practice this week.
If all three of Sieler, Kohou and Holland were to be out, that would put the Bills at a massive advantage against some replacement-level backups.
Von Miller is set to return from a four-game suspension. (Mark Konezny / Imagn Images)
Decision time for the Bills at defensive end
With
Von Miller’s four-game suspension complete, that puts the Bills back at full capacity in their defensive end room, but it also creates a significant question for them this weekend.
Miller has taken all of his snaps at left defensive end this season, as the team likely feels that’s where he’s at his best at this stage of his career. But over the last two weeks, the Bills have helped unlock fourth-year defensive end
Greg Rousseau to become a more impactful pass rusher by simplifying his role.
The Bills had Rousseau line up every single snap at left defensive end, which plays to his strengths after having played at that spot almost exclusively during his college career and first two
NFL seasons. Rousseau clearly appears more comfortable rushing from that side, and production reigns supreme.
His pressure rate over those two games has been a whopping 25 percent, and he has the most pressures of any pass rusher over the last two weeks. For context,
A.J. Epenesa’s pressure rate has been at 7.1 percent this season.
But that creates the problem. If both Rousseau and Miller are at their best on the left, who rushes from that side on the obvious passing downs in which they usually sub in Miller?
In the past, they’ve had Rousseau shift to the right side to allow Miller to rush from the left. However, as Rousseau has been more impactful than Miller throughout the season and is considered a big part of their plan over the rest of the season and 2025 at least, it makes sense to make Rousseau the priority moving forward and keep doing what has worked.
Miller’s reputation throughout his career could play a little into it, perhaps putting some pressure on the team to put him where he’s at his best at this stage. Either way, the Bills need to decide on Sunday, and it will be very intriguing to see who they value the most in that spot through their actions.
Is Kaiir Elam a trade candidate?
The trade deadline is under one week away, and the Bills will need to decide if they should add another piece to their roster to try to win a Super Bowl this season. However, the Bills already moved a third-round pick to acquire
Amari Cooper and are working with minimal cap space, having only $2.7 million available, according to the daily NFLPA salary cap report.
So if the Bills want to make a move and need some additional space to do it, including a player would potentially be an optimal solution. The one player who could have the most appeal in the trade market is 2022 first-round pick Kaiir Elam, who hasn’t touched the field on defense outside of garbage time reps. Elam also plays minimal special teams. Plus, moving him would clear about $975,000 of cap space.
Trading Elam would be compelling, considering they have another in-house boundary cornerback they like in
Ja’Marcus Ingram, but how realistic is it? Given that the Bills have had several injuries at cornerback over the years, trading away their locked-in top reserve just because their top two,
Christian Benford and
Rasul Douglas, have been healthy all year could make general manager Brandon Beane a bit squeamish. They at least know Elam has game experience and has had some success, whereas Ingram would be a lot more of a projection.
Plus, Elam is still signed in 2025, and with Douglas a free agent at the end of the year, Elam could be in their plans to compete to start in what is very likely to be his contract year. On top of all of it, the Bills probably missed their window to sell high on Elam last year, so trading him now likely would not yield a price worth giving up on a young player with another year left on his deal.
So the strong likelihood is that Elam remains in Buffalo for the year. However, if Elam being in the trade package is ultimately the difference between adding an impact player at a need position and not adding one, you can’t rule it out.
Has Joe Andreessen played his way into a regular spot?
The Bills have been figuring things out as they’ve gone along with special teams, but the Seahawks game brought a lot of positivity from head coach Sean McDermott. One of the plays that stood out and has been mentioned throughout this week was a big special teams tackle made by rookie linebacker and Buffalo native Joe Andreessen.
One of the tenets of McDermott as head coach is to reward the players who excel when they’re given an opportunity. Andreessen was only active because of Bernard’s injury, but with Bernard appearing on the right track to play Sunday, Andreessen’s work on special teams might have opened up the door to getting a regular spot.
The player he could replace on game day is veteran linebacker
Nicholas Morrow, who has been so-so on defensive reps throughout the summer and minimally in the regular season. They could even talk themselves into Andreessen being an upgrade on defense if he gets pressed into duty, which would be all the justification they need to make him active against the Dolphins.
Projected practice squad elevations: WR
Jalen Virgil
Projected inactives: FB
Reggie Gilliam, WR
Curtis Samuel, OL
Will Clapp, LB Nicholas Morrow, LB
Edefuan Ulofoshio, S Mike Edwards
*(Subject to change after Friday’s practice)
Prediction: Bills 33, Dolphins 28
The Bills enter the contest with a lot going for them in this matchup, specifically on offense. The offensive line is playing lights out at the moment, giving Allen and the running backs a terrific runway to gaining a lot of yards. That offensive line will be going up against a Dolphins unit comprised of mostly backup players.
The Bills already ran the ball well against the Dolphins in the first meeting, so if Sieler isn’t in the Miami lineup, it should push that advantage more to the Bills. If the Dolphins are without both Holland and Kohou, that would be a huge development to the passing game, most notably for wide receiver
Khalil Shakir. He has a plus matchup against Kohou’s likely replacement,
Cam Smith.
The Bills will still need to contend with the speed and explosiveness challenge the Dolphins present every week. With
Tua Tagovailoa back behind center, Miami has a knack for piling up points if Tagovailoa gets the ball out of his hand quickly. The running game is also slightly different than last time, as the Dolphins will have Mostert back in the lineup to offer a different style from Achane, who also had success in Week 2. However, the Bills have done quite well in getting Tagovailoa out of rhythm enough to usually put together a lead, and playing from behind against the Bills has never been the Dolphins’ strong suit.
Ultimately, I think both teams can put up points in this matchup, but the Bills’ advantages on offense outweigh the explosiveness edge the Dolphins have on the Bills defense. I think the Bills could put up a lot of points, and then the Dolphins get a late touchdown to make the game seem closer than it is with the final score.
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