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During the Buffalo Bills' 23-20 loss to the Houston Texans, QB Josh Allen seemed unwilling to take the easy, underneath completions the Texans were giving, and instead tried to make too much happen down the field.
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By now, you probably know that Buffalo Bills quarterback Josh Allen completed just 9 of 30 attempts for 131 yards and one touchdown in their 23-20 loss at Houston on Sunday. His overall performance grade was 79% as he struggled to connect with his receivers. This was due in large part to Allen’s unwillingness to take the easy, underneath completions the Texans were giving, and instead trying to make too much happen down the field.
This was the lowest completion percentage of Allen’s career. To take nothing away from the Texans, who jumped to an early lead and found a way to win, this Bills loss came down to missed opportunities – on the part of Allen, offensive coordinator Joe Brady and head coach Sean McDermott.
Allen’s lack of efficiency seemed to come from a big-play mindset and the frustration that came from missing big plays. That was more to blame than anything the Texans defense did.
There were physical miscalculations, as well, as too much out-of-system freelancing led to Allen’s ineffectiveness. In most cases, plays weren't the problem, but rather a failure in the philosophical approach and the basic execution.
Buffalo Bills quarterback Josh Allen throws a pass against the Houston Texans during the first half of their game Sunday, Oct. 6, 2024, at NRG Stadium in Houston.
Harry Scull Jr./Buffalo News
FIRST QUARTER
Play selection: 18 plays (seven passes, 10 runs)
Allen: 1 for 7 passing, 24 yards; one carry for 10 yards; sack
Performance grade: 77 %
Score: Texans 14-3.
Allen and the Bills’ offense received the opening kickoff. Coming into this game, Allen had completed 62% of his throws for a total of 814 yards, seven passing touchdowns, two rushing touchdowns and no interceptions.
Running back James Cook took the first play for a solid 7-yard gain. On the next play, second-and-3, the Texans blitzed and played man coverage. Anticipating the coverage, Brady and Allen had a rub play set up to free Mack Hollins. Allen had Dawson Knox dragging across the field in front of him and Curtis Samuel in the flat, but the QB elected to take the shot. This pass fell incomplete.
Then, on third-and-3, Allen had the opportunity to run for the first down. Here, the Texans’ tight man coverage left Allen with a decision: run for the first down or take a shot down the field to Dalton Kincaid. Allen took another shot downfield, rather than run for the first down.
This was a persistent theme for Allen in this game – pushing the ball downfield, over the top of the man coverage. The byproduct of attempting so many low-percentage, all-or-nothing-type throws was lots of incompletions. That is exactly what happened to Allen.
The Bills were forced to punt.
The Buffalo defense responded and forced a three-and-out, and Allen took over on the 49-yard line, with great field position. Allen led a nine-play drive for the first field goal of the game, overcoming two penalties and a sack in the red zone.
On the second play of this drive, Allen missed this open touchdown to Mack Hollins.
1. 1st-and-20: missed layup
This play was one of many missed opportunities. Here, four of the five Bills receivers were open, and Hollins had 5 yards on the safety, Calen Bullock, who he had beaten, badly. Allen missed this throw, which would have given the Bills their first touchdown of the game.
Then, seven plays later, Allen was sacked, which ultimately forced a field goal.
Here, Allen audibled to a receiver screen. He correctly diagnosed the six-man pressure from the Texans. This was a great adjustment – but for some reason, Allen hesitated and didn’t throw it. This caused the sack that slowed the drive and resulted in a Tyler Bass field goal and a 3-0 Bills lead.
The Texans took their next drive down the field for a touchdown to take the lead 7-3.
On the Bills' next possession, they failed to convert this third-and-11. Allen missed an open Coleman on a speed-out. The Texans blitzed and made Allen uncomfortable on what should be a routine throw.
The Texans’ six-man blitz with a spy made Allen cramped and hurried in the pocket. Here, Coleman had a timing route with a precise depth to the sideline. Allen had to be on time and accurate to connect, but the blitz disrupted his rhythm enough to send the ball wide and incomplete.
This concept versus man-to-man at the NFL level is everything a quarterback hopes for. The expectation is that the offensive player routinely wins in these situations. This was another early missed opportunity, as the Bills punted and the Texans scored to take a 14-3 lead on a 67-yard bomb.
This quick strike by the Texans gave them momentum, which undoubtedly increased the sense of urgency Allen was feeling.
On the next possession, Buffalo's fourth of the game, Allen was unable to get things going again. The Bills ran five plays on the series, which continued into the second quarter, before punting again.
To start this game, Allen’s production was summed up in his completion percentage, as he was just 1 of 7 attempts (14%) for 24 yards. The Texans’ blitzing posture and man-to-man coverage definitely affected Allen’s comfort level.
That said, the Texans’ defense didn’t actually take plays away from Allen as much as he uncharacteristically missed opportunities to take what the defense was giving.
SECOND QUARTER
Play selection: 14 plays (12 passes, two runs)
Allen: 6 for 12 passing, 30 yards, 0 touchdown; 0 carries, 0 yards
Performance grade: 64%
Score: Texans 17-3.
On the second play of the quarter – on a third-and-9 – Allen began to press. This is a common feeling among quarterbacks when things aren’t going well. They feel a need to make big plays, rather than taking advantage of the low-hanging fruit, concentrating on making positive plays. On third-and-9, this play was a prime example.
2. Third-and-9: Pressing misfire by Allen
Here, on third-and-9, Allen could have hit Marquez Valdes-Scantling on the designed mesh route or run for the first down. The worst case with either choice would have been a fourth down at midfield.
However, Allen again reached for more, something outside of his job description. Against all laws of physics and momentum, Allen attempted to throw a dig route to Hollins, who was running to Allen’s right, full-speed, as Allen was running full-speed to his left. This wacky attempt fell incomplete, with no chance at success.
At this juncture, Allen had completed only 1 of 9 attempts for 24 yards. This was his worst start in any game as a professional.
All was not lost, as the Bills’ defense rallied and stuffed a critical fourth-down attempt by the Texans. The Texans had mustered a long drive and reached the Buffalo 15-yard line. At this point, they could have kicked the field goal and taken a 17-3 lead. Instead, they went for the fourth-and-1 and were stopped. Had they converted here and scored, the Bills would have found themselves in a 21-3 hole, but to the defense's credit, they rallied and gave the ball back to the offense.
This was the play of the half, and Allen responded by putting together his best series of the game – a nine-play drive on which he completed 6 of 7 passes. But the drive ended with this play, which McDermott should have challenged.
3. Third-and-11: Kincaid on the sideline; no challenge
An important point to notice here was that Allen missed two open receivers to his left before he scrambled. Samuel and Coleman were open before Allen left the pocket.
There seemed to be enough evidence immediately following the play for McDermott to throw the challenge flag, as it appeared that Kincaid did claim more possession than it seemed in real time.
Two opportunities given away here – one by Allen and one by McDermott.
Following a Bills punt, the defense again held the Texans, and Allen had one final chance before halftime.
The Bills took over with 1:02 remaining and three timeouts, while the Texans had two remaining.
In this situation, Brady and McDermott must have been thinking about the clock as well as the offense, simultaneously gaining yardage and forcing their opponents to use their timeouts. Instead, three straight Allen incomplete passes stopped the clock, and the Texans kept both of their timeouts. Houston got the ball back in time enough to mount a drive.
Of Allen's three incompletions, the first was dropped by Kincaid. On the second play, Kincaid had beaten linebacker Azeez Al-Shaair down the middle of the field – but Allen’s throw was too flat, and Al-Shaair nearly intercepted it. Then, on third-and-10, Allen nearly threw an interception.
4. Third-and-10: End of a 19-second drive
On this play, the Texans bluffed a blitz and rushed only three to Allen’s left, pushing him into an area of the field that they had flooded with defenders. Allen’s impatience on this play was visible as he approached the sideline and threw a pass that literally hit Al-Shaair in the chest. This could easily have been an interception.
Should Brady have run the football on one of these plays?
Yes, to force the Texans to use a timeout.
The Bills punted with 43 seconds in the half, and Robert Woods, the former Bill, returned the ball 36 yards, all the way to midfield, giving the Texans life. With two timeouts and enough time to put more points on the board, they did, getting a 50-yard field goal to push their lead to 17-3.
This offensive blunder effectively preserved time for the Texans to score before the break.
For the first half, Allen completed 6 of 18 (33%) for 54 yards and rushed once for 10 yards. The Buffalo offense struggled with 103 total yards to the Texans' 229. The Bills rushed for 52 yards and passed for 51, while the Texans passed for 187 yards and rushed for 54 yards.
Allen’s struggles came from a combination of factors. It included tight coverage that affected the rhythm of the routes, as well as a pressure campaign that made Allen feel hurried in the pocket. The other factor was the growing sense of urgency Allen felt, which contributed to his unwillingness to take short completions.
THIRD QUARTER
Play selection: 14 plays (four passes, 10 runs)
Allen: 3 for 4 passing, 77 yards, one touchdown; two carries for 27 yards
Performance grade: 100%
Score: Texans 20-17.
The Texans opened the second half with a field goal, pushing their lead to 20-3.
Allen answered in a big way, leading a six-play touchdown drive that Cook capped with plunge into the end zone. On this drive, Allen completed 1 of 2 attempts, his only incompletion hitting rookie Coleman in the back of the head on a run-pass-option play. This was another example of a missed opportunity, as Coleman was not looking for the football.
On the next play, Allen delivered this strike to Kincaid on a dig route that set up the Bills’ touchdown.
5. Second-and-10: Kincaid sets up a touchdown
Even on this nice completion, Allen passed up an open Samuel to his left and an open Coleman to his right because he was trying to push the football down the field – first to Cook, then to Kincaid.
The Bills scored on the next play, cutting the Texans' lead to 20-10.
The Buffalo defense again held and forced another punt.
This gave Allen and the Bills’ offense another opportunity to claw their way back into this game.
On the next offensive possession, with 4:30 remaining in the third quarter, Allen went to work orchestrating a five-play touchdown drive that was highlighted with this fourth-and-5 touchdown pass to Coleman.
6. Fourth-and-5: Stop-route touchdown to Coleman
Here, Allen and the Bills beat the Texans' seven-man pressure with a simple stop route by Coleman. Allen stayed in the pocket, diagnosed the cover 0 blitz and knew that a quick, accurate throw versus man coverage could be a big play.
As you can see in the video, Allen had both Coleman and Hollins open because the man coverage could not prevent or defend against these routes. Allen’s job was to complete the throw and allow Coleman to do the rest. Brady did a super job on this play using a stop route and a drag for Allen to quickly access receivers versus the blitz. This breathed new life into the Bills’ offense and reduced the Texans lead to 20-17, making it a one-score game.
The Bills’ defense held again and Allen and the offense got the ball back, this time to take the lead. (Remember, the Bills' only lead in this game was in the first quarter.)
FOURTH QUARTER
Play selection: 12 plays (seven passes, five runs)
Allen: 0 for 7 passing, 0 yards; one carry, 18 yards
Performance grade: 75 %
Score: Texans 23-20
This potential go-ahead drive stalled with this failed Third-and-10 incomplete pass early in the fourth quarter.
Here, Allen might have chosen to throw the football to the right to Marquez Valdes-Scantling, who was pressed by the best coverage defender in the Texans’ secondary, Derek Stingley Jr.
Allen had trips to his left with Samuel and Hollins both on short in-routes. This again demonstrated that receivers were open in many situations Sunday against the Texans.
It wasn’t great defense by the Texans that was stopping the offense. It was poor execution.
With 8 minutes remaining, Bills linebacker Terrel Bernard intercepted C.J. Stroud, giving Allen and the Bills yet another opportunity.
The Bills took over on their own 20-yard line, and Allen ripped off an 18-yard run. However, on the next play, the Bills blew their protection.
Here, the offensive line was sliding to the left in preparation for a blitz by the linebacker. If this was supposed to be a six-man protection, then Ray Davis busted his assignment and should have blocked Jalen Pitre. If this was supposed to be a five-man protection, then Allen busted his assignment and should have thrown hot. We don’t know what the protection was supposed to be, but certainly one of the two players made a mistake here.
Additionally, had Allen flipped the protection to the right, Conner McGovern, O’Cyrus Torrence and Spencer Brown would have fanned out for Pitre. This wasn’t great defense, but poor offense, and the miscalculation resulted in a free rusher when there shouldn’t have been one.
On the very next play, Allen was shaken up as he rolled to his right, threw the ball downfield and was slammed to the ground. The Bills punted as Allen had to go into the blue medical tent for evaluation.
With Allen in the tent, defensive end Dawuane Smoot forced a Stroud fumble on his own 10-yard line that was recovered by Dorian Williams. This was the Texans' second turnover of the fourth quarter, and the third straight opportunity for Allen and the offense to take the lead.
Because Allen was being evaluated, backup Mitch Trubisky took the field for the first play and handed the football off to Cook. Allen burst out of the tent and re-entered the game. Still appearing shaken, Allen threw two incomplete passes – first to Cook, who was out of bounds, and then on this third-and-10.
7. Third-and-10: Empty formation, no crossers
This was a poor play-call by Brady at this important moment in the game, as the design left Allen nowhere to go with the ball.
This was a vertical play on which there weren’t any crossing routes. The Texans disrupted the vertical releases of the Bills’ receivers at the line of scrimmage with tight, physical press coverage, and Allen had no choice but to run. He made a valiant effort on the scramble, but his throw went wide of the target.
The Bills kicked a game-tying 33-yard field goal, evening the score at 20 – but to get just three points out of two fourth-quarter turnovers was out of character for Allen and this Brady offense.
Despite the inefficiencies, the offensive sloppiness and the hiccups, the Bills had mustered 17 unanswered points to tie this game with 3 minutes remaining. That was quite an achievement, considering the number of missteps the offense had in this game.
As the Texans began their drive, the Bills had two timeouts remaining and the Texans had all three of their timeouts.
This is important in evaluating the time management as this game came to a finish. The Texans achieved a first down and were first-and-10 from their own 45-yard line coming off the 2-minute warning.
McDermott used Buffalo’s two remaining timeouts after the 2-minute warning. The Texans had the game in hand, as they were in field-goal range when they were called for intentional grounding. In an amazing turn of events, the Bills forced a punt instead of a potential game-winning field-goal attempt.
The Texans punted and pinned the Bills on their own 3-yard line with no timeouts and 32 seconds remaining.
The offensive strategy should have been to run the football, forcing the Texans to use all their timeouts before a punt. A few runs would have given the Bills some breathing room in their own end and drained the Texans of timeouts, plain and simple.
Had the Bills done this, the game may have gone into overtime.
Instead of running, Allen threw downfield three straight times, perhaps trying to draw a penalty. The result of the three straight incomplete passes was a punt out of their own end zone with 16 seconds to play.
The Texans took the punt to the Bills’ 46-yard line with 7 seconds and timeouts to spare. The Texans wisely completed a short pass and called a timeout with 2 seconds remaining. The result of the Bills’ failed strategy was Ka'imi Fairbairn's game-winning 59-yard field goal.
CONCLUSION
This loss hurts more because the Bills lost this game more than the Texans won it.
Allen was largely unwilling to take what the Houston defense was giving. That amplified the illusion that his receivers weren’t open.
This was not true.
Yes, there were a couple of times when the Bills’ receivers were jammed at the line of scrimmage in tight coverage as they were trying to get vertical. But time and again, the film shows opportunities for Allen had he stayed in-system and been more patient.
Management of the offense – at the end of the first half
and at the end of the game – was head-scratching. Both times, they resulted in field goals for the Texans.
Brady struggled to give Allen better opportunities in the big moments. For whatever reason, Allen’s play was out of character, and he needed support and management here in this game. Neither Brady nor Allen adjusted their flawed emphasis on throwing over the top of the man-to-man defense. This was a game plan issue, not a receivers issue.
The silver lining is that despite the barrage of mistakes and inconsistencies, the Bills still had a chance to win.
To quote the late, great John Wooden:
Don’t let what you cannot do interfere with what you can do.
Allen and these Bills can learn a great deal from this game and find the things they can do well. They shouldn't allow outside noise about what they cannot do prevent success.
This is a big moment for Allen, Brady, and McDermott.
Will they rise to the challenge?
Overall QB Performance Grade: 79 %
Passing: 9 of 30 (30%), 131 yards, 1 TD, 0 INTs
Rushing: Four carries, 54 yards
