Buffalo Bills roundtable: How far can they go? Our writers weigh in as this magical season resumes
As the Buffalo Bills come out of their bye weekend, they are 9-2, running away with the AFC East and off to their best start since the 1992 season. Here's a roundtable discussion of The News' Bills writers on the state of the team.
As the Buffalo Bills come out of their bye weekend, they are 9-2, running away with the AFC East and off to their best start since the 1992 season. Here’s a roundtable discussion of The News’ Bills writers on the state of the team:
How high should Bills fans let their hopes get? In other words: Is this the best version of the Bills in the Josh Allen era?
Jay Skurski: The Covid-year Bills won 11 of 12 during one stretch, with the only loss coming to the Cardinals on the “Hail Murray.” That was the best stretch I’ve seen – even as I watched from home because media didn’t travel that year. I’m not ready to put this year’s team on that level just yet, even though last week’s win against the Chiefs has pushed me in that direction. Remember, this was supposed to be a “transition year.” Allen simply won’t allow that. This team is really, really good – but to be great, it has to go farther than that 2020 team, which went to the AFC championship game. There is no reason that fans should hope for anything less than a spot in the Super Bowl. With Allen, anything is possible.
Ryan O’Halloran: Yes, this is at least the best version I’ve seen of Allen since I got here in 2022, which means the hopes of Bills fans should be high … so long as they don’t face Baltimore in the playoffs. First, about Allen. He has done a terrific job of spreading the football around (eight players have at least 10 catches, and that doesn’t include receiver Amari Cooper). Allen belongs at the top of the NFL MVP discussion. I like the Bills in any AFC matchup – home or away – except for the Ravens, who have a certain run-game, punch-you-in-the-face mentality that allowed them to dominate the Bills in Week 4.
Katherine Fitzgerald: Like Ryan, I’ll go with the “since I got here” lens. I arrived in summer of 2021, so I just missed the 2020 season. I think this is the best version of Allen we’ve seen, but the team as a whole still falls a little short of “the best version of the Bills in the Josh Allen era.” That’s a tall task. That said, be hopeful, Bills fans! This team is electric right now, and I’m expecting an impressive postseason run.
Mark Gaughan: I’m going to wimp out and say “to be determined.” The team will be judged by the playoff result. How healthy will the Bills be in January? I’m leaning toward yes, however, because Josh Allen is playing the best football of his career. I also think the Bills’ top three edge rushers – Greg Rousseau, Von Miller and A.J. Epenesa – are better than any top three at the end of any of the previous four seasons. Miller wasn’t around at the end of 2022. I’m going to be optimistic and say Miller will be better in January than a slumping Leonard Floyd was last January. I also think with the return of Matt Milano, this is the best two-man linebacking corps of the Allen era. Terrel Bernard is a stud. I think the offensive line and running back positions are better. So now I’ve talked myself into it. If they’re all healthy for the playoffs, yes, this is the best version.
Bills safety Damar Hamlin celebrates with teammates after his interception against the Jaguars on Sept. 23. Joshua Bessex, Buffalo News
What is the most surprising development on the Bills’ team so far?
Jay: The offensive line being better than it was a year ago. Mitch Morse was an awesome guy and a good player, but the reality is, the Bills haven’t missed him on the field. That’s because Connor McGovern has seamlessly made the transition from left guard to center, and David Edwards has been a perfect fit at left guard. Knock on wood: The Bills have stayed healthy up front, save for right tackle Spencer Brown missing last week’s win over Kansas City with a sprained ankle. Even then, Ryan Van Demark did a nice job filling in. Sean McDermott always mentions that everything starts up front, and the Bills’ offensive line is delivering consistent results.
Ryan: The play of safeties Damar Hamlin and Taylor Rapp, who rank second (65) and fourth (56), respectively, on the Bills in tackles. In training camp, I thought rookie Cole Bishop would get an orientation period before replacing Hamlin at safety, or maybe veteran Mike Edwards eventually would succeed Hamlin in the lineup. Bishop is playing only special teams and Edwards is playing for the Buccaneers. Rapp, meanwhile, has been a pleasant surprise for me with two interceptions (tied for the team lead) and showing solid range and physical force.
Katherine: I have been pleasantly surprised by linebacker Dorian Williams, who’s been thrust into a big role. Matt Milano’s injury sent some shock waves when it occurred, but Williams has filled in well and put the team in a solid position for Milano’s return down the stretch.
Mark: The performance of the defense overall, the play of the new safety tandem of Rapp and Hamlin and the seamless transition to Bobby Babich as defensive coordinator. The state of the defensive play-calling has been a total nonissue so far.
What is one key area of improvement the Bills need going down the stretch of the season and into the playoffs?
Jay: I still don’t trust the run defense. The Bills are giving up an average of 4.85 yards per rushing attempt, which ranks 29th in the NFL. I’ve not been overly impressed with the play of defensive tackles Ed Oliver and DaQuan Jones this season. And, looking ahead, the Bills are going to be challenged on the ground, be it by Kansas City (the Chiefs will get Isiah Pacheco back soon), Pittsburgh (Najee Harris and/or Jaylen Warren) or especially Baltimore (we all remember what happened in Week 4 against Derrick Henry and Lamar Jackson) when the postseason arrives.
Ryan: Offensive line penalties in general and offensive tackle penalties in particular. The starting line has a combined 27 enforced penalties this year – left tackle Dion Dawkins (10), right tackle Spencer Brown (nine), right guard O’Cyrus Torrence (five), left guard David Edwards (two) and center Connor McGovern (one). The line has 12 false starts – inexcusable in pro football. The Bills’ line played a penalty-free game against Kansas City last week.
Katherine: The consensus here is the run defense, and I agree. Another matchup with Baltimore worries me, and other teams are likely to try to copy what the Ravens did – though that, of course, is easier when you have the personnel of Derrick Henry and Lamar Jackson.
Mark: Defending the run against elite offenses remains a question. Part of it is the way the Bills like to play defense. They like to stop the run with a light box and prioritize keeping a lid on opposing passers. It’s a sound strategy, unless you get repeatedly gashed in the run game – see the playoff loss to Kansas City last year and the Baltimore loss this season. DaQuan Jones is a critical piece of the defensive puzzle. I’m interested to see how the backup defensive tackle rotation sorts out among DeWayne Carter, Austin Johnson, Quinton Jefferson and Jordan Phillips. If some combination of those four give the Bills quality run-stuffing when Jones is on the sideline, that will be great.
Bills offensive linemen Connor McGovern, left, and David Edwards, second from right, pass block against the Colts. Harry Scull Jr., Buffalo News
Let’s say the Bills go 5-1 the rest of the way. Yes or no: Will the Chiefs lose two and finish 14-3 (thereby giving the Bills home-field advantage in this scenario)?
Jay: Yes. The Chiefs haven’t looked like world-beaters pretty much all season. The Bills’ loss to Houston currently stings, because their margin for error when it comes to earning the No. 1 seed is so small. However, if they get to 14 wins, I say they will do it for the first time under Sean McDermott.
Ryan: Yes. The Bills should be favored to win five of their last six games, the exception being the Week 15 showdown at Detroit. The Chiefs have home games remaining against the Chargers and Houston, as well as trips to Pittsburgh and Denver to finish the season. Edge to the Bills.
Katherine: Sure. I think Kansas City is capable of finding the strangest ways to win, but two losses for Patrick Mahomes and company is still believable.
Mark: Yes