Can the Bills still go deep? We charted all their long (and short) passes. Here's what it tells us


Josh Allen has been one of the most effective deep-passing quarterbacks in the NFL throughout his career. With one of the strongest arms in the league, one would expect that to continue in 2024.

1725704872636.png
Wide receiver Gabe Davis, making a 36-yard catch against the Chargers last season, led the Bills in deep receptions last season. Harry Scull Jr./Buffalo News
However, the overhaul of the Buffalo Bills’ receiving corps leaves it an open question. The Bills had 28 receptions last season on passes that traveled at least 20 yards past the line of scrimmage, 12th-most in the NFL. The Bills were ninth in yards on passes of 20-plus air yards and second in attempts. Thus, there was room for improvement. Allen had an NFL-best 34 deep completions in 2022. Furthermore, 19 of the Bills’ 28 deep completions went to players no longer on the roster.

Stefon Diggs, in particular, saw a drop in his deep-ball production. He had 11 deep receptions in 2021, 12 in 2022 and just six in 2023. And just one of those six came in the final nine games, counting playoffs. Gabe Davis had three of his 11 deep catches in the last nine games. Can rookie Keon Coleman be as effective as Davis on deep routes? Can Khalil Shakir increase his production overall and go deep? Can Curtis Samuel, the fastest Bills player with 4.31 speed in the 40-yard dash, be unleashed downfield? They all are key questions as this new season begins.

Bills Deep Completions in 2023​

Game 2. vs. Las Vegas. W, 38-10.
  • Gabe Davis 40 yds (25 in air). Q4. Bills 31, Raiders 10. Third and 6.
Game 3. @ Washington. W, 37-3.
  • Stefon Diggs 30 yds (26). Q1. Tie, 0-0. Third and 8.
  • Gabe Davis, 35 yds TD (33).Q1. Bills 10, Commanders 0. First and 10.
  • Stefon Diggs, 30 yds (28). Q4. Bills 16, Commanders 0. First and 10.
Game 4. vs. Miami. W, 48-20.
  • Gabe Davis 18 yds TD (20). Q1. Tie, 0-0. First and 10.
  • Gabe Davis 34 yds (31). Q3. Bills 41, Dolphins 20. First and 10.
Game 5. vs. Jacksonville. L, 25-20.
  • Stefon Diggs 48 yds (48). Q3. Jaguars 11, Bills 7. First and 10.
  • Gabe Davis 24 yds (23). Q4. Jaguars 18, Bills 7. First and 20.
  • Gabe Davis 19 yds TD (24).Q4. Jaguars 18, Bills 13. Second and 19.
  • Deonte Harty 43 yds (43). Q4. Jaguars 25, Bills 13. First and 10.
  • Gabe Davis 29 yds (29). Q4. Jaguars 25, Bills 13. First and 10.
Game 6. vs. N.Y. Giants. W, 14-9.
  • Stefon Diggs 28 yds (26). Q1. Giants 3, Bills 0. First and 10.
Game 7. @ New England. L, 29-25.
  • James Cook 28 yds (25). Q1. Patriots 10, Bills 0. Third and 5.
Game 8. vs. Tampa Bay. W, 24-18.
  • Khalil Shakir 30 yds (27). Q1. Bills 3, Bucs 0. Third and 5.
Game 9. @ Cincinnati. L, 24-18.
  • Stefon Diggs 17 yds TD (23). Q4. Bengals 24, Bills 10. Third and 1.
Game 10. vs. Denver. L, 24-22.
  • Dalton Kincaid 22 yds TD (25). Q2. Broncos 9, Bills 0. First and 10.
  • Khalil Shakir 24 yds (23). Q3. Broncos 15, Bills 8. Second and 7.
  • Gabe Davis 38 yds (22). Q3. Tie, 15-15. Second and 7.
Game 11. vs. N.Y. Jets. W, 32-6.
  • Khalil Shakir 81 yds TD (25). Q3. Bills 22, Jets 6. Second and 5.
Game 12. @ Philadelphia. L, 37-34 OT.
  • Khalil Shakir 31 yds (29). Q2. Bills 10, Eagles 7. Third and 7.
  • Gabe Davis 25 yds (25). Q2. Bills 10, Eagles 7. Second and 2.
Game 13. @ Kansas City. W, 20-17.
  • Deonte Harty 25 yds (21). Q4. Tie, 17-17. Third and 6.
Game 15. @ L.A. Chargers. W, 24-22.
  • Gabe Davis 57 yds TD (40). Q2. Chargers 10, Bills 0. First and 10.
  • Gabe Davis 36 yds (35). Q3. Bills 14, Chargers 13. First and 10.
Game 16. vs. New England. W, 27-21.
  • Dalton Kincaid 51 yds (32). Q3. Bills 20, Patriots 14. First and 10.
Game 17. @ Miami. W, 21-14.
  • Stefon Diggs 36 yds (36). Q2. Dolphins 7, Bills 0. Second and 7.
  • Dalton Kincaid 26 yds (23). Q4. Tie, 14-14. First and 10.
  • Khalil Shakir 28 yds (24). Q4. Tie, 14-14. Second and 6.
(Source: Buffalo News)

2023 Deep Receiving Totals​

Player Rec. Yds. TD
Gabe Davis 11 355 3
Stefon Diggs 6 189 1
Khalil Shakir 5 194 0
Dalton Kincaid 3 99 1
Deonte Harty 2 68 0
James Cook 1 28 0

Inside the Numbers​

A closer look at the 28 deep passes Josh Allen completed in 17 games last season.

FIRST DOWN: Half of the completions (14) came on first down.

PLAY-ACTION FAKE: One-third (nine) came on play-action fakes, which is what one would expect in attacking the defense deep.
ON THE MOVE: A quarter of the completions (7) came when Allen was flushed out of the pocket and threw on the move. Allen was the hardest QB to sack in the NFL last season.

NFL Deep Completions Leaders​

Player, team CompYards Pct.
Dak Prescott, Cowboys 35 1,024 47.9
Trevor Lawrence, Jaguars 34 1,048 45.3
C.J. Stroud, Texans 32 1,111 56.1
Tua Tagovailoa, Dolphins 32 1,149 50.8
Jordan Love, Packers 32 1,058 39.5
Brock Purdy, 49ers 30 956 63.8
Derek Carr, Saints 29 968 43.3
Matt Stafford, Rams 28 948 51.9
Josh Allen, Bills 28 933 36.8
Source: Pro Football Focus
 
Click to expand...
You must log in or register to reply here.
Back
Top